PACCAR Inc research snapshot
PCAR AI stock analysis reads PACCAR Inc as a high-quality truck, parts, and finance franchise that is moving into the early stage of a Class 8 recovery as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff. The stock closed at $132.68 on July 31, 2026 with a market capitalization of about $69.84 billion. PACCAR reported Q2 2026 revenue of $7.5 billion and net income of $752 million on July 28, 2026, up 24% from the first quarter, with record parts revenue of $1.75 billion, parts gross margin of 29.8%, and truck, parts, and other gross margin expanding to 14.4% from 13.1% in Q1. Management guided third quarter gross margin to 14.5%, expects US and Canadian Class 8 retail of around 250,000 units for 2026, and sees EPA emissions clarity supporting a strong 2027 truck market. The stock trades at about 27.9x trailing EPS and about 22x forward EPS, which prices in much of the recovery. This PCAR AI stock analysis uses scenarios, not a certain price prediction, and is informational research, not investment advice.
Current price
$132.68
Market cap
$69.84 billion
AI score
70 / 100
Rating
Quality cyclical recovery, premium valuation watch
Trend status
Bullish above 50-day and 200-day moving averages
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | PACCAR builds premium Class 8 trucks under the Kenworth, Peterbilt, and DAF brands, sells high-margin aftermarket parts, and earns finance income from truck customers and dealers. | High |
| Moat | Brand reputation, a large independent dealer network, parts availability and uptime economics, scale purchasing, engineering, and the finance arm create a durable but cyclical industrial moat. | High |
| Management | The team is running a disciplined cycle: Q2 gross margin expanded to 14.4%, parts gross margin reached 29.8%, capex is guided to $700 million to $750 million, and the regular dividend was raised to $0.35 per quarter in April 2026. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue of $28.44 billion was down 15.5% and net income of $2.38 billion was down 42.9% from the 2023 peak, but Q2 2026 net income rose 24% sequentially on higher deliveries and record parts results. | High |
| Valuation | At about 27.9x TTM EPS, 22.5x forward EPS on the $5.90 FY2026 consensus, 3.4x book, and 23.6x free cash flow, the stock requires confidence in normalized earnings and parts durability. | Medium |
| Technical trend | The price sits above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, but a break below the $126 to $131 support band would weaken the short-term setup after the post-earnings pullback. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is moderate for a high-quality industrial: freight demand, used truck prices, finance credit losses, emissions and tariff costs, parts growth, and valuation multiple compression all matter. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Source depth is strong, and price, market cap, shares, revenue, net income, cash, debt, and valuation math were checked with financial_rigor.py and matched across sources. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Investment certainty is lower than data confidence because the thesis depends on the next stage of the truck cycle and the multiple investors assign to normalized earnings. | Medium |
PCAR AI stock forecast
The PCAR AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges around the $132.68 reference price. It is not a promise of where PACCAR stock will trade. The bullish case requires the Class 8 recovery and margin expansion to continue through 2027; the base case assumes the current recovery holds at a forward multiple near 20x; the bearish case assumes the truck cycle rolls over or valuation compresses toward trough-cycle levels.
$150 to $181
More likely if third and fourth quarter gross margins hold near or above 14.5%, Class 8 retail reaches about 250,000 units in 2026 and stays strong in 2027, parts growth beats the 3% to 5% guide, and the stock clears the $139 to $140 resistance zone with volume.
$120 to $140
More likely if EPS normalizes toward the FY2026 consensus of about $5.90, parts growth lands near the guided range, and the stock holds its premium multiple, consistent with a consensus Buy and an average analyst target of $139.28.
$60 to $90
More likely if freight demand weakens again, used truck prices fall and pressure finance residuals, parts growth stalls, emissions or tariff costs compress margins, or the 28x trailing multiple resets toward a trough-cycle industrial range.
PCAR AI technical analysis
PCAR AI technical analysis starts from the July 31, 2026 close of $132.68 and treats support, resistance, moving averages, momentum, volume, volatility, and invalidation as planning inputs. The stock trades above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. Because this static page does not fetch request-time chart data, live levels should be checked before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $132.68 | Reference Yahoo Finance and StockAnalysis close for July 31, 2026, used as the data cutoff for this page. |
| Near support | $126 to $131 | Zone of recent July pullback lows before the earnings move. A close below this area would reduce short-term confidence. |
| Near resistance | $139 to $140 | The July 28, 2026 earnings-day intraday high was $139.24, also near the 52-week high. |
| 50-day moving average | $121.07 | Source StockAnalysis statistics as of August 2, 2026. Confirm with a live chart before execution. |
| 200-day moving average | $115.93 | Source StockAnalysis statistics as of August 2, 2026. The long-term trend anchor. |
| Momentum | Positive but cooling | 14-day RSI near 61.12 on August 2, 2026 is bullish but not overbought; the post-earnings pop has faded. |
| Volume | Elevated on earnings, normalizing | Volume spiked to about 5.68 million on July 28, 2026, above the 20-day average near 3.55 million. |
| Volatility | Moderate | Beta of 0.98 tracks the market. Position sizing should account for truck-order, freight, and macro-rate surprises. |
| Invalidation | Close below $121 | A decisive close below the 50-day moving average would weaken the short-term trend-following setup. |
PCAR AI trading strategy
The PCAR AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework for research and monitoring. It does not tell any individual investor to buy, sell, or hold PACCAR stock.
Consider PCAR only while price holds above the 50-day moving average near $121 and after it clears the $139 to $140 resistance zone with confirmed volume.
A close back below the 50-day moving average or a failed breakout after an earnings or freight data miss should invalidate the setup.
If PCAR pulls back toward the $126 to $131 zone while quarterly reports still show margin expansion, record parts revenue, and controlled finance credit losses, compare the price with normalized EPS near the FY2026 consensus of $5.90 and free cash flow yield.
Do not average down if the pullback is caused by a clear truck-order decline, used-truck price drop, or finance credit deterioration.
Track quarterly deliveries, US and European Class 8 retail, dealer inventory, aftermarket parts revenue and margins, finance credit metrics, used truck prices, capex, R&D, freight rates, and EPA emissions rulemaking.
Reduce confidence when price strength is not matched by order, margin, or cash-flow evidence.
Investment research summary
Customers pay PACCAR for truck uptime, premium brand reliability, dealer support, parts availability, and financing that helps fleets buy and maintain vehicles. Q2 2026 deliveries rose to 38,700 and parts posted record revenue of $1.75 billion.
Kenworth, Peterbilt, and DAF brands, a large dealer network, parts economics with gross margins near 29.8%, scale purchasing, engineering, and the finance arm create a durable moat, but not one immune to truck cycles.
The thesis fails if freight demand weakens again, used truck prices fall and pressure finance residuals, parts growth near 3% to 5% disappoints, emissions or tariff costs compress margins, or the market stops paying a premium for cyclical earnings.
Preston Feight and the PACCAR team are running a disciplined cycle with visible results: Q2 gross margin expanded to 14.4%, parts gross margin reached 29.8%, capex is guided to $700 million to $750 million, and the regular dividend was raised to $0.35 per quarter in April 2026.
Commercial trucking is tied to freight activity, replacement cycles, emissions regulation, and electrification. EPA clarity on the NOx rule extends the current engine timeline and is expected to support a strong 2027 truck market.
The current price embeds a large share of the recovery at about 27.9x trailing EPS and about 22x forward EPS. Margin of safety depends on whether parts durability and 2027 truck demand justify the premium multiple.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| PCAR price | $132.68 | Yahoo Finance and StockAnalysis quote snapshot | July 31, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $69.84 billion, verified as $132.68 x 526.36 million shares | financial_rigor.py market cap verification | August 2, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 526.36 million, cross-checked against Yahoo implied shares | financial_rigor.py shares cross-validation | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $28.44 billion, down 15.5% from FY2024 | StockAnalysis and PACCAR annual results cross-check | January 27, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income | $2.38 billion, down 42.9% from FY2024 | StockAnalysis and PACCAR annual results cross-check | January 27, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 results | Revenue of $7.5 billion and net income of $752 million, up 24% sequentially, with record parts revenue of $1.75 billion | PACCAR Q2 2026 earnings release and earnings call | July 28, 2026 |
| Cash and marketable securities | $8.83 billion as of June 30, 2026 | StockAnalysis balance sheet | June 30, 2026 |
| Total debt | $14.70 billion as of June 30, 2026, with net debt near $5.86 billion | StockAnalysis balance sheet | June 30, 2026 |
| Valuation math | 27.93x trailing PE, 22.5x forward PE on FY2026 consensus EPS, 3.44x PB, 23.6x P/FCF, 1.05% dividend yield | financial_rigor.py valuation verification | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy from 19 analysts with an average target of $139.28, low $110.47, high $164.00 | S&P Global consensus via StockAnalysis | July 30, 2026 |
| FY2026 and FY2027 EPS forecast | FY2026 consensus EPS of $5.90, up 17.8%, and FY2027 consensus EPS of $7.06, up 19.7% | S&P Global consensus via StockAnalysis | July 30, 2026 |
| Three-scenario valuation | Bull $180.6, base $126.1, bear $70.8 using FY2026 consensus EPS of $5.90 with EPS growth of 10%, 4%, and -5% and PE multiples of 23x, 19x, and 14x | financial_rigor.py three-scenario model | August 2, 2026 |
This page is an informational research tool for PACCAR Inc and is not investment advice, tax advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell PCAR. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available data and financial_rigor.py calculations as of the stated cutoff. They can be wrong if earnings, valuation multiples, rates, truck demand, used truck prices, credit losses, or market liquidity change.
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