FedEx Corporation research snapshot
FDX AI stock analysis currently reads FedEx Corporation as a large global parcel and logistics network in the middle of a portfolio and cost transformation. The stock closed at $307.40 on July 31, 2026, and the audited market cap check produced about $72.73 billion using 236.59 million shares outstanding. The bull case is that CY2026 revenue growth near 11%, adjusted EPS guidance of $16.90 to $18.10, buybacks up to $1 billion, debt reduction tender offers, and the FedEx Freight spin-off completed on June 1, 2026 improve returns. The caution is that FDX AI stock forecast confidence is limited by post-earnings margin concerns, trade policy, wage inflation, Amazon and UPS competition, and a daily technical setup that screens as weak below the 50-day and 200-day averages.
Current price
$307.40
Market cap
$72.73 billion verified market cap
AI score
67 / 100
Rating
Scaled global logistics network in active portfolio transformation with post-spin margin questions
Trend status
Technically weak on daily moving averages, with price below the 50-day and 200-day averages
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | FedEx sells time-definite delivery, ground parcel, international express, logistics, data, and business services through a dense global network that is hard to replicate. | High |
| Moat | Scale, brand trust, route density, air and ground assets, enterprise customer relationships, and operational data create a moat, but Amazon, UPS, USPS, DHL, regional carriers, and in-house retail networks pressure volume and pricing. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO Raj Subramaniam is steering FedEx through DRIVE, Network 2.0, the fiscal year change, the FedEx Freight spin-off, and the planned FedEx Supply Chain sale to CMA CGM. The strategy is clear, but the post-spin profit record is still short. | Medium |
| Financial trend | FY2026 revenue rose to about $94.7 billion, net income was about $4.43 billion, diluted EPS was $18.55, and free cash flow was about $5.12 billion. The gain is real, but the stock still fell about 7% after Q4 earnings on margin concerns. | High |
| Valuation | At $307.40, audited valuation math shows 16.57x EPS, 2.33x book value, 14.22x free cash flow per share, a 7.03% FCF yield, and a 1.81% dividend yield. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | Daily technical data is weak. StockAnalysis showed RSI near 40.30, a 50-day moving average near $331.35, and a 200-day moving average near $326.20, with price below both. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are economic slowdown, fuel and wage pressure, tariff and trade disruption, Amazon and UPS competition, aircraft and network execution, labor intensity, debt, the FedEx Supply Chain sale, and post-spin reporting noise. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive data confidence is high because the FY2026 release, the fiscal 2026 Form 10-K, and market data are fresh. Forecast confidence is only medium because the business is cyclical and restructuring benefits are still being proven. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | FDX looks like a scaled cyclical compounder with a credible self-help plan, not a simple buy-and-ignore stock. Certainty depends on margin delivery after the Freight spin-off and the Supply Chain divestiture. | Medium |
FDX AI stock forecast
The FDX AI stock forecast uses the $307.40 price reference from the July 31, 2026 close, CY2026 adjusted diluted EPS guidance of $16.90 to $18.10, and a three-year earnings multiple model. The audited model produced a bearish value near $192.50, a base value near $295.30, and a bullish value near $407.90 before dividends. These are scenario ranges, not price promises.
$395 to $430
More likely if CY2026 revenue growth tracks guidance near 11%, adjusted EPS improves toward the high end of the $16.90 to $18.10 range, Network 2.0 lowers unit cost, buybacks of up to $1 billion continue, debt reduction proceeds, and the market values FDX near 18x forward earnings.
$285 to $320
More likely if adjusted EPS grows in the low to mid-single digits, Freight separation and Supply Chain sale effects fade, cost savings offset wage and trade pressure, and the market keeps FDX near a mid-cycle multiple around 15x.
$180 to $205
More likely if package demand slows, Amazon or regional carriers pressure yield, trade policy reduces cross-border demand, Network 2.0 savings disappoint, or the market rerates FDX closer to 11x earnings.
FDX AI technical analysis
FDX AI technical analysis uses market data available at the August 2, 2026 cutoff. FDX closed at $307.40 on July 31, 2026. StockAnalysis showed RSI near 40.30, a 50-day moving average near $331.35, a 200-day moving average near $326.20, and beta near 1.34. ADVFN showed a one-year range of $216.095 to $413.87. Investing.com technical pages returned an access error at this cutoff, so technical levels below rely on StockAnalysis and ADVFN.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $307.40 | July 31, 2026 close from StockAnalysis and ADVFN quote data. |
| Immediate support | $306 to $311 | This zone includes the July 31 close and the $306.98 to $311.45 day range reported by StockAnalysis and ADVFN. |
| Day range | $306.98 to $311.45 | The July 31 session traded within this band, so a close outside it would signal a short-term extension. |
| 200-day resistance | $326.20 | The 200-day moving average sits below the 50-day average, an unusual post-decline setup. Reclaiming it matters for trend repair. |
| 50-day resistance | $331.35 | The stock was below the 50-day moving average, so reclaiming this level would be a stronger sign the post-earnings pullback is ending. |
| Deeper support | $216 to $225 | This range sits near the one-year low area reported by ADVFN and is relevant if macro or execution risk returns. |
| Higher resistance | $395 to $414 | This zone overlaps the audited bullish scenario and the ADVFN one-year high area near $413.87. |
| Momentum | RSI near 40.30 | RSI below 50 points to weak momentum and supports the below-average trend read rather than a confirmed rebound. |
| Volume | About 1.31 million shares on July 31 | StockAnalysis showed volume below the 20-day average of about 1.58 million shares, so follow-through volume is still important. |
| Volatility | One-year range $216.10 to $413.87, beta 1.34 | The wide range reflects both restructuring optimism and cyclical logistics risk, with beta above the market average. |
| Invalidation | Close below $306 | A decisive break below the recent close and day-range support zone would weaken short-term trend-following confidence. |
FDX AI trading strategy
The FDX AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It connects price action with FY2026 results, CY2026 guidance, Network 2.0 execution, Freight spin-off and Supply Chain sale effects, cash flow, debt, and competitive signals.
Watch for FDX to reclaim the 200-day moving average near $326, then build toward the 50-day average near $331 on stronger volume while management confirms CY2026 revenue growth, adjusted EPS, and network savings.
A close below $306, weaker package volume, or guidance cuts should reduce trend-following confidence.
If FDX retests the $285 to $310 area without a deterioration in free cash flow, yield, or CY2026 EPS guidance, compare the entry price with the audited base scenario and peer logistics multiples.
Do not treat every decline as attractive if trade policy, wage inflation, aircraft costs, or Amazon competition reduce the margin path.
Track package yield and volume, adjusted operating margin, free cash flow, buybacks of up to $1 billion, debt tender offers, the FedEx Supply Chain sale to CMA CGM, fuel and wage costs, and customer mix.
Position sizing should reflect that FDX is a capital-intensive cyclical logistics company with self-help potential, not a guaranteed compounding machine.
Investment research summary
Customers pay FedEx because businesses and consumers need reliable movement of parcels, documents, freight-linked services, returns, and logistics data across time-sensitive networks.
The moat comes from global scale, brand reliability, aircraft and facility assets, pickup and delivery density, enterprise integrations, and operational data. It narrows if competitors match speed at lower cost or if large retailers internalize more delivery volume.
The thesis fails if volume slows while fixed network costs stay high, if labor or fuel inflation absorbs DRIVE savings, if Amazon and regional carriers take profitable routes, or if post-spin complexity and the Supply Chain divestiture hide weaker core margins.
Raj Subramaniam became CEO in 2022 and is reshaping the company through DRIVE, Network 2.0, a fiscal year change, the FedEx Freight separation, and the planned FedEx Supply Chain sale to CMA CGM. The key test is converting structural change into durable margin and cash flow.
Parcel and logistics demand benefits from e-commerce, healthcare, aerospace, automotive, data center, and global supply chain needs. The same industry is exposed to trade cycles, fuel prices, automation, and aggressive last-mile competition.
At $307.40, FDX trades near the audited base-case value, with a useful FCF yield of about 7% but limited margin of safety unless adjusted EPS growth, buybacks, and network savings continue after the Freight spin-off.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| FDX quote reference | $307.40 close on July 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis FDX financials | Aug 2, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $72.73 billion calculated from $307.40 x 236,590,520 shares outstanding, matching the reported market cap | Pineify financial_rigor.py, StockAnalysis, and ADVFN | Aug 2, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 236,590,520 shares outstanding at August 2026 | StockAnalysis statistics and ADVFN quote page | Aug 2, 2026 |
| FY2026 revenue and net income | $94.7 billion revenue and about $4.43 billion net income, cross-checked with StockAnalysis at $94.72 billion revenue and $4.433 billion net income | FedEx Q4 FY2026 results release | Aug 2, 2026 |
| FY2026 EPS and free cash flow | $18.55 GAAP diluted EPS, $20.24 adjusted diluted EPS, and about $5.12 billion free cash flow | FedEx Q4 FY2026 results release and StockAnalysis | Aug 2, 2026 |
| Fiscal 2026 Form 10-K | Filed July 20, 2026 for the fiscal year ended May 31, 2026 | SEC EDGAR | Aug 2, 2026 |
| Balance sheet snapshot | StockAnalysis statistics showed $13.55 billion cash and $42.94 billion total debt, while FedEx reported $13.3 billion ending cash including the Freight spin dividend | StockAnalysis statistics and FedEx Q4 FY2026 release | Aug 2, 2026 |
| CY2026 outlook | FedEx forecasts about 11% revenue growth, diluted EPS of $16.55 to $17.75, and adjusted diluted EPS of $16.90 to $18.10 from continuing operations | FedEx Q4 FY2026 results release | Aug 2, 2026 |
| FedEx Freight separation | FedEx completed the spin-off of FedEx Freight as an independent public company under ticker FDXF on June 1, 2026, distributing 80.1% and retaining 19.9% | FedEx newsroom | Aug 2, 2026 |
| FedEx Supply Chain sale | FedEx plans to sell its FedEx Supply Chain third-party logistics business to CMA CGM at an enterprise value of $1.4 billion | Reuters and WSJ via StockAnalysis news | Aug 2, 2026 |
| Debt tender offers | FedEx priced cash tender offers in July 2026 to buy back notes with an aggregate purchase price cap of about $4.15 billion, plus an automatic mixed securities shelf filed July 21, 2026 | Business Wire via ADVFN news | Aug 2, 2026 |
| Technical indicators | RSI near 40.30, 50-day moving average $331.35, 200-day moving average $326.20, beta 1.34 | StockAnalysis FDX statistics | Aug 2, 2026 |
| One-year trading range | $216.095 to $413.87 | ADVFN FDX quote page | Aug 2, 2026 |
| U.S. parcel competition context | UPS led revenue-based market share, FedEx ranked second, and Amazon became the top U.S. delivery provider by volume, delivering 6.7 billion packages in 2025 versus FedEx at 3.6 billion | Supply Chain Dive | Aug 2, 2026 |
This FDX AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, tax advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of August 2, 2026, and can be wrong if FedEx execution, demand, fuel, labor, trade policy, competition, or market valuation changes.
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