Cullen/Frost Bankers, Inc. research snapshot
CFR AI stock analysis currently reads Cullen/Frost Bankers as a high-quality Texas-focused regional bank with a large core deposit base, commercial lending relationships, trust and investment management, insurance, and payments services. At the July 12, 2026 data cutoff, CFR was $156.92 with a verified market capitalization near $9.85 billion. First-quarter 2026 results showed 5.6% average loan growth, a 3.74% taxable-equivalent net interest margin, 15.15% return on average common equity, and 14.07% common equity Tier 1 capital. The main offsets are Texas concentration, deposit pricing, interest-rate sensitivity, credit losses, and a valuation near recent highs. This page uses scenarios and explicit risk controls rather than a certain stock price prediction, and is for informational use only.
Current price
$156.92
Market cap
$9.85 billion
AI score
66 / 100
Rating
Strong Texas regional bank franchise, with interest-rate and credit-cycle sensitivity
Trend status
Intermediate uptrend above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, near recent highs with RSI in the mid-60s
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Frost Bank combines commercial and consumer banking with trust, wealth, insurance, brokerage, treasury, and capital markets services across Texas. Q1 2026 net income available to common shareholders was $169.3 million and taxable-equivalent net interest income was $460.8 million. | High |
| Moat | The moat is a regional relationship system: the Frost brand, about 205 Texas locations, local commercial expertise, core deposits, correspondent banking, and wealth relationships. It is meaningful but not unbreakable against larger banks, credit unions, and fintechs. | Medium-high |
| Management | Chairman and CEO Phil Green and CFO Dan Geddes are executing a long-term Texas expansion strategy while balancing branch investment, dividends, buybacks, and capital strength. 2025 net income to common reached a company record near $641.9 million. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 net income to common increased 11.5% to $641.9 million, while Q1 2026 net income to common rose 13.4% year over year. Q1 average loans grew 5.9%, average deposits grew 1.4%, and the net interest margin rose to 3.74% from 3.60%. | High |
| Valuation | At $156.92, CFR was about 15.28x trailing EPS of $10.27 and 2.25x book value of $69.83 per share. The $4.12 annual dividend implied a 2.63% yield, so the quote does not provide an obvious deep-value margin of safety. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | CFR traded above the 50-day average near $143.79 and the 200-day average near $135.54, with RSI near 66. The price was close to the recent $157.50 high area, so momentum was constructive but not low-risk. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are Texas economic concentration, commercial real estate and energy credit exposure, deposit repricing, rate-sensitive net interest income, securities valuation changes, cyber and fraud losses, and competition from digital financial platforms. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for historical facts and audited calculations, medium for chart levels, analyst expectations, and forward scenarios. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. The framework supports disciplined monitoring, not a universal buy or sell label. | Medium |
CFR AI stock forecast
The CFR AI stock forecast uses the StockAnalysis FY2026 EPS estimate of $10.67 and a three-year scenario model. The audited model produced a bullish reference value near $215.1, a base reference near $156.0, and a bearish reference near $84.2. These are scenario outputs before dividends, not promises about where the stock will trade.
$195 to $225
More likely if Texas loan growth remains healthy, deposit costs stay controlled, the 3.74% net interest margin holds or improves, credit losses remain normal, fee businesses grow, and the market values roughly 16x normalized earnings.
$145 to $170
More likely if EPS grows at a low single-digit pace, rate normalization keeps the margin broadly stable, loan and deposit growth remain moderate, and investors value CFR near 13x earnings.
$80 to $105
More likely if a Texas slowdown raises commercial real estate or energy losses, deposits become expensive, net interest income contracts, non-interest expense stays elevated, or the market re-rates CFR toward a 9.5x to 10x earnings multiple.
CFR AI technical analysis
CFR AI technical analysis is constructive but extended as of the July 12, 2026 cutoff. Market data showed a July 10 close near $156.92, a recent high area around $157.50, a 50-day moving average near $143.79, a 200-day moving average near $135.54, RSI near 66, and average 20-day volume near 621,899 shares. Levels are reference zones, not trade instructions.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $156.92 | MarketBeat reported the latest close on July 10, 2026 near $156.92. StockAnalysis reported a market capitalization near $9.84 billion around the same data window. |
| Near support | $153 to $155 | Late-June and early-July closes clustered in this area. A pullback that holds here would preserve the recent short-term structure. |
| Intermediate support | $143 to $145 | This zone is near the StockAnalysis 50-day moving average of $143.79 and the June 10 to June 12 price area. |
| Long-term support | $134 to $138 | This zone surrounds the StockAnalysis 200-day moving average near $135.54 and is the key reference for the intermediate trend. |
| Resistance | $157.50 to $160 | Recent daily highs reached roughly $157.50. A move through this area would need volume and fundamental confirmation rather than a price-only breakout assumption. |
| Moving averages | 50-day $143.79; 200-day $135.54 | Price remained above both averages at the cutoff, which supports the intermediate trend while increasing the distance that a normal pullback could cover. |
| Momentum | RSI 66.17, constructive but closer to overbought | The RSI reading was above neutral and below the 70 level often used as an overbought reference. It is a condition indicator, not a timing guarantee. |
| Volume and volatility | 621,899 average shares; beta 0.55 | StockAnalysis reported average 20-day volume near 621,899 shares and five-year beta near 0.55. MarketBeat reported 461,053 shares on July 10, 2026. |
| Invalidation | Decisive close below $135.50 | A sustained close below the 200-day average would weaken the current intermediate trend and should trigger a fresh review of credit, deposits, net interest margin, and valuation assumptions. |
CFR AI trading strategy
The CFR AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework for a regional bank near recent highs. It is not personal advice. Any use of these ideas should include fresh price data, the next earnings release, credit-quality review, position sizing, and a predefined invalidation level.
Watch whether CFR holds the $153 to $155 area and then clears $157.50 to $160 with volume. Confirm the move with Q2 2026 net interest income, deposit costs, loan growth, non-accrual loans, and capital ratios around the expected July 30 earnings date.
A failed breakout or a decisive close below the $143 to $145 intermediate support zone weakens the short-term setup. A close below $135.50 invalidates the broader trend reference.
If CFR pulls back toward $143 to $145 while loan growth, deposits, net interest margin, and credit costs remain stable, compare the price with book value and normalized earnings before treating the move as a valuation reset.
Do not average down solely because the stock is below a recent high. Stop or reduce the setup when Texas credit indicators, deposit pricing, or capital ratios deteriorate.
Track taxable-equivalent net interest margin, average loans and deposits, the non-interest-bearing deposit mix, provision and net charge-offs, non-accrual loans, commercial real estate and energy exposure, fee income, expense growth, CET1, and the pace of branch expansion.
Lower confidence if earnings growth relies on a favorable rate move while deposit competition, credit losses, or securities marks move in the opposite direction.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Frost for reliable access to deposits, credit, treasury management, payments, trust, investment, insurance, and capital markets services. The economic engine is the spread between earning assets and funding costs, supplemented by recurring fee relationships.
Frost has a regional relationship moat built on a Texas brand dating to 1868, about 205 financial centers, local commercial expertise, a core deposit franchise, and trust assets estimated at $51.0 billion at the end of 2025. The moat can narrow when competitors pay more for deposits or digital alternatives improve.
The thesis fails if Texas employment, real estate, or energy conditions weaken enough to raise losses; if deposit competition compresses the margin; if securities values hurt capital; if fraud or cyber events damage trust; or if fintechs reduce the need for bank intermediation.
Phil Green remains Chairman and CEO, with Dan Geddes as CFO. Management has paired a long record of dividends with organic expansion in Houston, Dallas, and Austin, 2025 share repurchases, and strong capital ratios. The key test is whether growth investments compound per-share value through the next credit cycle.
Texas population, business formation, infrastructure, and commercial activity support long-term banking demand, but regional banking is cyclical rather than a winner-take-all technology market. Over a 20-year lens, CFR looks more like an enduring local franchise if it protects trust and funding quality than a civilization-level platform.
The audited valuation check showed 15.28x trailing EPS, 2.25x book value, and a 2.63% dividend yield at $156.92. The base scenario is close to the current quote, so a stronger margin of safety would require a lower entry price or evidence that loan growth, net interest margin, and credit quality can support higher normalized earnings.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFR closing price | $156.92 on July 10, 2026 | MarketBeat price history | July 12, 2026 |
| Market capitalization and shares | $9.85 billion and 62.80 million shares; market cap math was $156.92 x 62.80 million with a 0.05% difference from the reported value | StockAnalysis statistics and financial_rigor.py | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 earnings to common | $641.9 million net income available to common shareholders and $9.92 diluted EPS, up 11.5% from 2024 | Cullen/Frost 2025 annual report and StockAnalysis financials | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 net interest income | $438.5 million GAAP net interest income and $460.8 million on a taxable-equivalent basis, up 5.6% year over year on the latter measure | SEC Form 10-Q and Cullen/Frost Q1 2026 release | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 net income to common | $169.3 million, or $2.65 diluted EPS, compared with $149.3 million and $2.30 in Q1 2025 | SEC Form 10-Q and Cullen/Frost Q1 2026 release | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 loans and deposits | $22.43 billion gross loans and $42.84 billion total deposits at March 31, 2026; average loans rose 5.9% year over year and average deposits rose 1.4% | SEC Form 10-Q and Cullen/Frost Q1 2026 release | July 12, 2026 |
| Capital and profitability | Q1 2026 CET1 ratio 14.07%, return on average assets 1.32%, and return on average common equity 15.15% | Cullen/Frost Q1 2026 results release | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM valuation inputs | TTM diluted EPS $10.27, book value per share $69.83, annual dividend $4.12, and 2.63% dividend yield | StockAnalysis statistics and financial_rigor.py | July 12, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 50-day moving average $143.79, 200-day moving average $135.54, RSI 66.17, average 20-day volume 621,899 shares, and beta 0.55 | StockAnalysis statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2026 estimate and analyst range | StockAnalysis showed FY2026 EPS of $10.67 and a one-year analyst price range of $139 to $169; estimates can change after the July 30 earnings date | StockAnalysis forecast | July 12, 2026 |
| Three-scenario valuation | financial_rigor.py output: bullish $215.1, base $156.0, bearish $84.2 using $10.67 EPS, 3 years, growth rates of 8%, 4%, and -6%, and target PEs of 16x, 13x, and 9.5x | financial_rigor.py using StockAnalysis FY2026 EPS estimate | July 12, 2026 |
This CFR AI stock analysis is an informational tool, not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of returns. Forecast ranges are scenario estimates based on available data and can be wrong. Verify current filings, market prices, rates, credit conditions, and your own circumstances before making any investment decision.
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