Paychex, Inc. research snapshot
PAYX AI stock analysis currently reads Paychex as a durable payroll, HR, benefits, advisory, and PEO services business serving approximately 800,000 clients and paying 1 in 11 U.S. private sector workers. At the August 2, 2026 data cutoff, PAYX closed at $116.84 on July 31, 2026, and market cap math using 355.68 million shares implied roughly $41.56 billion. The AI view is constructive on recurring demand, cash generation, dividend support, and Paycor plus WISE AI execution, but the stock has already rebounded above the $109.21 analyst consensus target, so the valuation case is less forgiving than it was in early July. This page uses scenarios, not a certain price prediction, and is for informational use only.
Current price
$116.84
Market cap
$41.56 billion using current-share market cap math
AI score
71 / 100
Rating
High-quality payroll, HCM, and PEO compounder with Paycor integration momentum, WISE AI leadership, dividend support, and a more extended valuation after the July rebound
Trend status
Short-term rebound above both its 50-day and 200-day averages, with PAYX still about 20% below its $146.83 52-week high
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Paychex provides payroll, HR, benefits, advisory, insurance, and PEO services to approximately 800,000 clients, with recurring demand tied to employer compliance and workforce administration. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from payroll trust, regulatory expertise, client data, service density, switching costs, scale, and Paycor-expanded HCM capabilities for larger clients. | High |
| Management | CEO John Gibson is executing the Paycor integration, the WISE AI platform launch, dividend growth, buybacks, and fiscal 2027 adjusted operating margin guidance near 44%. | High |
| Financial trend | FY2026 revenue rose 17% to $6.512 billion, net income rose 6% to $1.760 billion, adjusted EPS rose 11% to $5.51, and cash flow from operations reached $2.6 billion. | High |
| Valuation | At $116.84, PAYX traded near 23.9x GAAP EPS, 19.5x forward adjusted EPS, 11.1x book value, 17.9x free cash flow, and a 4.07% dividend yield by audited calculation, above the $109.21 consensus target. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | StockAnalysis showed RSI near 61.79 with price above both the 50-day and 200-day averages; Barchart showed positive directional strength with the stock trading above its key moving averages. | Medium |
| Risk level | Main risks are weaker small business hiring, slower Paycor synergy realization, elevated debt, client funds income pressure, PEO claims volatility, a high payout ratio, cyber risk, AI compliance risk, and valuation compression. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for source-backed financial facts and calculations, medium for trading timing and multi-year multiple assumptions. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium. The business is resilient, but after the July rebound the stock needs credible 7% to 9% adjusted EPS growth, Paycor execution, and stable margins to justify upside from a price above consensus. | Medium |
PAYX AI stock forecast
The PAYX AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $116.84 close, FY2026 adjusted EPS of $5.51, and a three-year model audited with financial_rigor.py. The model produced a bullish value near $157, a base value near $128, and a bearish value near $84 before dividends.
$150 to $162
More likely if fiscal 2027 revenue grows near the high end of 5% to 6%, adjusted EPS compounds near 9%, Paycor cross-sell improves retention and upmarket penetration, WISE AI lowers service cost, and PAYX earns about a 22x adjusted earnings multiple.
$122 to $132
More likely if adjusted EPS compounds near 7%, revenue growth normalizes after the Paycor step-up, adjusted operating margin reaches about 44%, debt is manageable, and PAYX trades near 19x earnings.
$80 to $90
More likely if small business employment weakens, Paycor synergies disappoint, client funds income falls, PEO insurance costs rise, leverage limits buybacks, or the market rerates PAYX toward a lower services multiple.
PAYX AI technical analysis
PAYX AI technical analysis has improved as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff. StockAnalysis showed a $116.84 close on July 31, 2026, a 50-day moving average near $104.12, a 200-day moving average near $103.60, and RSI near 61.79. Barchart showed the stock trading above its 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day averages with a 14-day RSI near 61.78 and 14-day ADX near 30, which signals an uptrend gaining strength. PAYX remains about 20% below its $146.83 52-week high. Traders should refresh live moving averages before acting because quote vendors can update during and after the session.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $116.84 | StockAnalysis showed PAYX at $116.84 on the July 31, 2026 close, up 0.44% on the day. |
| Near support | $112.25 | Barchart listed the 20-day moving average near $112.25, a natural first support under the July rebound. |
| Key support zone | $103.60 to $104.12 | StockAnalysis showed the 200-day average near $103.60 and the 50-day average near $104.12, forming the main floor for the current trend. |
| Lower support | $98.03 | Barchart listed the 100-day moving average near $98.03, a deeper reference point if the rebound fails. |
| Near resistance | $117.28 to $117.93 | StockAnalysis showed a July 31 day high near $117.28, and Barchart listed the 5-day moving average near $117.93, capping the immediate move. |
| Higher resistance | $146.83 | StockAnalysis reported the 52-week high at $146.83, the key level that would confirm a full recovery from the drawdown. |
| Moving averages | 50-day $104.12, 200-day $103.60 | StockAnalysis showed PAYX above both averages, and Barchart confirmed price above all five key moving averages. |
| Momentum | RSI 61.79 | StockAnalysis listed RSI near 61.79 and Barchart showed 14-day RSI near 61.78, firm but not yet overbought. |
| Volume | 3.29 million versus 3.24 million 20-day average | StockAnalysis reported July 31 volume near 3.29 million versus a 3.24 million 20-day average, so the rally needs continued follow-through to extend. |
| Invalidation | Close below $103.60, then $98.03 | A close back below the 200-day average near $103.60 would weaken the rebound setup, and a break of the 100-day average near $98.03 would shift focus to the bearish scenario. |
PAYX AI trading strategy
The PAYX AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework for a payroll and HCM compounder that is rebuilding from a large drawdown. It is not personal advice and should be paired with live chart data, position sizing, and fresh fiscal 2027 guidance checks.
Look for PAYX to hold above the 200-day moving average near $103.60 and break through the $117 to $118 area on better volume, with RSI staying below overbought extremes. Confirm that fiscal 2027 revenue growth, adjusted EPS growth, Paycor integration, WISE AI adoption, and PEO worksite employee trends still support the move.
A failed breakout followed by a close below the 200-day average should reduce confidence in the trend setup.
If PAYX pulls back toward $104 to $112 without a guidance cut, review valuation, client retention, Paycor integration cost, debt levels, client funds income, and dividend coverage before treating the decline as a lower-risk entry framework.
Do not average down only because PAYX is a high-quality payroll business. Small business weakness, integration problems, or a stall above consensus can make a cheap-looking pullback a value trap.
Track fiscal 2027 revenue growth, adjusted EPS growth of 7% to 9%, adjusted operating margin near 44%, cash flow from operations, debt reduction, Paycor cross-sell, PEO insurance costs, client funds yield, dividends, and repurchases.
Reduce confidence if revenue growth slows while debt, integration costs, PEO cost pressure, or client churn increase, or if the price keeps pushing away from the consensus target without earnings support.
Investment research summary
Paychex is paid because employers need accurate payroll, tax, HR, benefits, advisory, and PEO workflows that must run reliably every pay cycle and comply with changing rules.
The moat is built from compliance knowledge, payroll reliability, service relationships, client data, implementation friction, scale, and Paycor-enhanced HCM coverage for larger employers.
The thesis fails if small business hiring contracts, clients shift to cheaper platforms, Paycor integration dilutes returns, AI lowers switching costs, PEO claims pressure margins, or data and AI compliance failures damage trust.
Management is balancing Paycor integration, WISE AI investment, margin expansion, dividends, buybacks, and debt from the Paycor acquisition. The test is whether capital allocation improves growth without weakening the balance sheet.
Paychex benefits from payroll complexity, HR outsourcing, compliance burden, HCM digitization, AI-assisted service, and small and mid-market employer demand. The offset is mature industry growth and sensitivity to employment cycles.
The verified scenario model shows reasonable base-case upside and material downside if PAYX rerates, and the stock now trades above the $109.21 analyst consensus target. Margin of safety is moderate only if adjusted EPS growth, Paycor execution, client retention, and cash conversion remain durable.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| PAYX price | $116.84 close on July 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis quote page | August 2, 2026 |
| Market cap | $41.56 billion | StockAnalysis market cap page | August 2, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 355.68 million | StockAnalysis statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2026 revenue | $6.512 billion, up 17% | Paychex Q4 fiscal 2026 earnings release | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2026 net income | $1.760 billion, up 6% | Paychex Q4 fiscal 2026 earnings release | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2026 adjusted EPS | $5.51, up 11% | Paychex Q4 fiscal 2026 earnings release | August 2, 2026 |
| Cash, restricted cash, and corporate investments | $1.2 billion at May 31, 2026 | Paychex Q4 fiscal 2026 earnings release | August 2, 2026 |
| Borrowings | $4.6 billion at May 31, 2026 | Paychex Q4 fiscal 2026 earnings release | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2027 guidance | 5% to 6% revenue growth and 7% to 9% adjusted EPS growth | Paychex Q4 fiscal 2026 earnings release | August 2, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | PE 23.89, forward PE 19.53, P/FCF 17.90, EV/EBITDA 14.10 | StockAnalysis statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Hold, average target $109.21, range $95 to $150 | StockAnalysis forecast page | August 2, 2026 |
| Technical indicators | RSI 61.79, 50-day average $104.12, 200-day average $103.60 | StockAnalysis statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Barchart moving averages | 5-day $117.93, 20-day $112.25, 50-day $104.12, 100-day $98.03, 200-day $103.60 | Barchart technical analysis | August 2, 2026 |
This PAYX AI stock analysis is an informational research tool, not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future returns. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available public data as of the stated cutoff date and may be wrong. Always verify live prices, filings, fundamentals, and your own risk constraints before making financial decisions.
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