Corpay, Inc. research snapshot
CPAY AI stock analysis currently reads Corpay, Inc. as a profitable corporate payments, vehicle payments, lodging payments, and cross-border business with strong margins, an active buyback program, and a deliberate rotation toward pure-play corporate payments. At the August 2, 2026 data cutoff, CPAY closed at $382.11 on July 31 with a source-checked market capitalization near $24.98 billion. The setup is constructive because TTM revenue rose about 18%, Q1 2026 revenue rose about 25%, consensus 2026 adjusted EPS is near $26.77, and the stock trades near its $395.49 52-week high. The main caution is that the stock already prices in execution on Alpha integration, the Mastercard and JPMorgan partnerships, leverage reduction, and durable corporate payments growth. This page uses scenario ranges rather than a certain price prediction and is informational research, not investment advice.
Current price
$382.11
Market cap
$24.98 billion
AI score
75 / 100
Rating
High-margin corporate payments compounder with leverage and integration risk
Trend status
Constructive trend above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, near the 52-week high
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Corpay provides commercial cards, fleet cards, virtual cards, AP automation, cross-border payments, lodging payments, and related spend-control tools for businesses. TTM revenue is about $4.78 billion with gross margin near 79%. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from embedded workflows, payment acceptance, customer data, cross-border licensing, issuer and network relationships, scale, compliance infrastructure, and a cross-border platform that serves more than 25,000 customers. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO Ron Clarke and CFO Peter Walker have emphasized a rotation to pure-play corporate payments, targeting 24% EPS growth and roughly $50 cash EPS in four years while divesting non-core businesses and buying back stock. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Q1 2026 revenue rose about 25% to $1.261 billion, net income attributable to Corpay rose about 44% to $350.1 million, TTM revenue rose about 18%, and consensus 2026 adjusted EPS is near $26.77. | High |
| Valuation | At $382.11, CPAY traded around 22.92x TTM EPS, 13.71x forward earnings, 5.22x sales, 19.06x free cash flow per share, and 7.20x book value. | High |
| Technical trend | The stock was above its 50-day average near $356.23 and 200-day average near $320.80, with RSI near 60.50 and price close to the $395.49 52-week high. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Risk is moderate to above average because leverage, restricted cash and customer deposits, acquisition execution, receivables quality, FX, fuel spreads, and payment regulation can affect results. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for source-backed facts and arithmetic. Medium for exact trading outcomes because CPAY can rerate around guidance, rates, FX, acquisitions, and payment-sector multiples. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. CPAY has attractive margins and growth, but the current price requires continued execution and does not remove downside if growth or integration disappoints. | Medium |
CPAY AI stock forecast
The CPAY AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $382.11 close and consensus 2026 adjusted EPS near $26.77. A three-year model produced a bullish value near $564, a base value near $421, and a bearish value near $284 before any future share-count changes.
$540 to $580
More likely if corporate payments and cross-border keep double-digit organic growth, Alpha synergies and the Mastercard and JPMorgan partnerships show up in revenue, leverage falls, buybacks continue, and investors value CPAY near 15x future adjusted earnings.
$400 to $440
More likely if revenue compounds near management and analyst expectations, adjusted EPS growth remains stronger than revenue growth, and the market pays about 12.5x future adjusted earnings.
$270 to $300
More likely if integration costs rise, fuel or FX assumptions move against the company, lodging or fleet demand softens, receivables losses increase, or the multiple compresses toward 10x earnings.
CPAY AI technical analysis
CPAY AI technical analysis is constructive as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff. StockAnalysis showed a July 31 close of $382.11, a 50-day moving average near $356.23, a 200-day moving average near $320.80, and RSI near 60.50. The price is near the $395.49 52-week high, so follow-through matters more than chasing strength blindly.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $382.11 | July 31, 2026 closing price from StockAnalysis, used for this static page. |
| Near support | $356 to $365 | The 50-day moving average near $356.23 and recent trading around the mid-$360s form the first support zone. |
| Secondary support | $321 to $340 | The 200-day moving average near $320.80 and the round number near $340 define a deeper repair zone. |
| Near resistance | $393 to $396 | The $395.49 52-week high is the key breakout reference for buyers. |
| 50-day moving average | $356.23 | StockAnalysis July 31, 2026 statistic. A sustained hold above it supports the constructive trend view. |
| 200-day moving average | $320.80 | StockAnalysis July 31, 2026 statistic. The 50-day average above the 200-day average supports a positive intermediate trend. |
| Momentum | RSI 60.50 | Neutral-to-positive momentum. Not overbought by itself, but close enough to resistance that confirmation matters. |
| Volume | 20-day average 442,572 shares | Breakouts above the 52-week high are more useful if volume expands above recent averages. |
| Volatility | Beta 0.88 | Market beta is below 1.0, but company-specific earnings, FX, fuel, credit, and acquisition headlines can still move the stock. |
| Invalidation | Close below $356, then $321 | A close below the 50-day average would weaken the near-term setup. A close below the 200-day average would mark a larger trend failure. |
CPAY AI trading strategy
The CPAY AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework for a profitable corporate payments stock near a recent high. It is not personal advice and should be paired with live quotes, position sizing, filings, earnings dates, and defined invalidation levels.
Watch for CPAY to hold the $356 to $365 support band and break above $393 to $396 with volume above the 20-day average.
A close below $356 or a failed breakout after the August 5 Q2 2026 earnings should invalidate the short-term momentum setup.
If CPAY pulls back without a thesis break, compare the price move with TTM revenue, adjusted EPS, corporate payments spend volume, vehicle transactions, lodging room nights, cash, debt, and leverage.
Do not average down without a defined loss limit because payments stocks can derate when growth, leverage, or acquisition assumptions change.
Track Q2 2026 results on August 5, full-year revenue and adjusted EPS guidance, segment revenue mix, debt paydown, net cash position, Alpha integration, Mastercard and JPMorgan partnership progress, and buyback activity.
Reduce confidence if earnings growth relies mainly on non-GAAP adjustments or buybacks while organic revenue, free cash flow, or leverage improves less than expected.
Investment research summary
Corpay helps businesses control and automate spending across cards, fleet, tolls, parking, lodging, AP payments, and cross-border transactions. Customers pay because the tools reduce friction, fraud, reconciliation work, and payment complexity.
The moat is built from embedded customer workflows, payment acceptance, transaction data, cross-border infrastructure, bank and network relationships, compliance operations, and scale in niche commercial spend categories.
The thesis fails if acquisitions or the Alpha integration disappoint, leverage constrains flexibility, fuel spreads and FX become headwinds, lodging stays weak, receivables losses rise, or customers shift to broader enterprise payment platforms or digital rails.
Management has used acquisitions, divestitures, buybacks, and capital allocation to rotate toward pure-play corporate payments. The key question is whether this creates durable organic growth instead of mainly financial engineering.
Electronic B2B payments, AP automation, virtual cards, cross-border payouts, fleet digitization, and spend control are long-term trends. The counterweight is that payments are competitive, regulated, and sensitive to rates, FX, and customer budgets.
CPAY is cheaper on forward adjusted earnings than on trailing GAAP earnings, but the gap depends on execution. Margin of safety is stronger below key support or after evidence that organic growth, cash conversion, and leverage reduction are durable.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| CPAY price | $382.11 close on July 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $24.98 billion, verified from $382.11 x 65.36 million shares | StockAnalysis statistics and financial_rigor.py | August 2, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 revenue | $1.261 billion, up about 25% year over year | StockAnalysis quarterly income statement | August 2, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 net income attributable to Corpay | $350.07 million, up about 44% year over year | StockAnalysis quarterly income statement | August 2, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 adjusted EPS | About $5.80, up about 29% year over year | Corpay Q1 2026 earnings call transcript | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $4.528 billion, up about 14% year over year | StockAnalysis financials | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | $4.784 billion, up about 18% year over year | StockAnalysis financials | August 2, 2026 |
| 2026 consensus revenue | $5.30 billion, up about 17% year over year | StockAnalysis forecast | August 2, 2026 |
| 2026 consensus adjusted EPS | $26.77, up about 25% year over year | StockAnalysis forecast | August 2, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | $2.537 billion cash and investments, $10.361 billion total debt, about $7.824 billion net debt at March 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis balance sheet | August 2, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | 22.92x trailing P/E, 13.71x forward P/E, 5.22x sales, 19.06x free cash flow, 7.20x book value | StockAnalysis statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Technical indicators | 50-day moving average $356.23, 200-day moving average $320.80, RSI 60.50 | StockAnalysis statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| 52-week range | $252.84 to $395.49 | StockAnalysis overview | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy, average price target $396.21 from 14 analysts | StockAnalysis forecast | August 2, 2026 |
This CPAY AI stock analysis is an informational research tool, not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of returns. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available data as of August 2, 2026 and can be wrong if Corpay results, guidance, interest rates, FX, fuel prices, acquisition execution, regulation, market liquidity, or valuation multiples change.
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