Par Pacific Holdings research snapshot
PARR AI stock analysis reads Par Pacific Holdings as an independent oil refiner in the strongest phase of its recent cycle. The August 4, 2026 data cutoff shows a company generating $7.54 billion in trailing revenue and $454 million in net income, with 2026 consensus adjusted EPS of $16.10, up roughly 113% from 2025. The stock closed at $83.02 on August 3, giving it a $4.16 billion market cap, a 9.22x trailing P/E, and a forward P/E near 5x. Par Pacific runs four refineries across Hawaii, Montana, Washington, and Wyoming, plus retail fuel and convenience stores and logistics infrastructure across the Pacific and Mountain regions. The stock has climbed about 177% over the past year, reaching a record high of $87.03 on July 31. Analysts moved to a consensus Buy with an average target of $83, and Goldman Sachs and TD Cowen recently raised their targets to $92 and $100. The PARR AI stock forecast is scenario based: the market is paying roughly 5x forward earnings on record 2026 estimates, which prices in a strong margin environment that consensus expects to soften into 2027. The key swing factors are crack spread trajectory, renewable fuels contribution, debt management after the $500 million notes offering, and fuel demand.
Current price
$83.02
Market cap
$4.16 billion verified market cap using 50.14M shares at $83.02
AI score
74 / 100
Rating
Independent oil refiner in a record 2026 margin cycle with a commercial Hawaii renewable fuels unit, aggressive buybacks, and rising analyst targets
Trend status
Powerful uptrend: up 176.92% over 52 weeks and trading just below the record high of $87.03 set on July 31, 2026, after a strong July rally
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Par Pacific refines crude into gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, and asphalt across four refineries in Hawaii, Montana, Washington, and Wyoming, and adds retail fuel, convenience stores, and logistics that provide some earnings stability versus pure refining. | Medium-high |
| Moat | The moat comes from geographic position in logistically complex markets (Hawaii is the most isolated US refinery market), limited West Coast competition, retail brands (Hele, nomnom, 76), and terminal, pipeline, and storage assets. The moat narrows if renewable fuels structurally reduce gasoline demand. | Medium |
| Management | CEO Will Monteleone signed the Q1 2026 results as President and CEO, continuing a track record of operational execution, buybacks, and the Hawaii renewable fuels project that reached commercial operations in April 2026. The $500 million notes offering in May refinanced the balance sheet. | Medium |
| Financial trend | Revenue and earnings are cyclical with crack spreads. TTM revenue of $7.54B and net income of $454M are strong, and 2026 consensus adjusted EPS of $16.10 implies a record year. Net debt is roughly $1.2B, and ROE of 33.32% reflects both leverage and high current returns. | Medium |
| Valuation | At $83.02, the trailing P/E of 9.22x and forward P/E near 5x look low in absolute terms, but they sit on record earnings estimates. P/S of 0.56x, P/B of 2.80x, and EV/EBITDA of 7.12x reflect a stock that has already rerated sharply in 2026. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | The stock is in a powerful uptrend, up 176.92% over 52 weeks, above the 50-day moving average of $63.66 and the 200-day moving average of $51.54, and just below the record high of $87.03. RSI near 70.8 signals an overbought condition after the July rally. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are crack spread normalization, a demand slowdown, renewable fuel policy changes, Hawaii regulatory and price-lag exposure, leverage after the $500 million notes offering, and operational disruption at any refinery. | High |
| AI confidence | Data confidence is medium-high for current reported financials, price, and analyst targets. Confidence is lower for forward estimates because refining margins depend on global supply and demand, geopolitics, and economic activity that cannot be forecast with precision. | Medium-high data, low-medium forward |
| Investment certainty | PARR is executing well in a strong margin cycle, but the stock has already rerated sharply and the low forward P/E reflects record earnings, not cheapness. A forward P/E near 5x on 2026 estimates prices in strong margins, and the margin of safety depends on how long crack spreads stay elevated. | Low-medium |
PARR AI stock forecast
The PARR AI stock forecast uses the $83.02 price reference, TTM EPS of $8.99, and consensus adjusted EPS of $16.10 for 2026 and $11.34 for 2027. The scenario ranges reflect crack spread trajectory, renewable fuels contribution, debt, and demand. A bullish case above $90 requires sustained strong margins into 2027, while a bearish case below $60 reflects a sharper-than-expected normalization.
$90 to $110
More likely if crack spreads stay elevated through 2027, renewable fuels add meaningful earnings, Par Pacific keeps buying back stock, and the market applies a multiple closer to 6-7x to record 2027 earnings. TD Cowen and Goldman Sachs targets of $100 and $92 sit at the top of this range.
$70 to $90
More likely if refining margins gradually normalize toward mid-cycle, renewable fuels provide modest contribution, buybacks continue, and fuel demand holds with moderate economic growth. This aligns with the consensus average target of $83 and 2027 consensus EPS near $11.34.
$40 to $60
More likely if a sharp economic downturn cuts fuel demand, crack spreads compress fast, renewable fuel margins turn negative, or the Hawaii refinery faces regulatory or price-lag headwinds while debt from the notes offering stays elevated.
PARR AI technical analysis
PARR AI technical analysis uses market data available at the August 4, 2026 cutoff. The stock closed at $83.02 on August 3, just below the record high of $87.03 set on July 31. The stock is up 176.92% over the past 52 weeks and trades well above the 50-day moving average of $63.66 and the 200-day moving average of $51.54. RSI near 70.8 signals an overbought reading after a strong July rally, so the key technical question is whether the stock consolidates in the $75 to $85 zone or pushes through the record high.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $83.02 | August 3, 2026 close from StockAnalysis.com, used for market-cap and valuation verification. |
| 52-week high | $87.03 | Set on July 31, 2026. A breakout above this level with volume would signal the next leg higher. |
| Near support | $77 to $80 | The late-July consolidation zone. Holding above $77 keeps the short-term uptrend intact. |
| Major support | $70 to $74 | The mid-July breakout zone near the July 13 close of $70.92. A break below $70 would suggest the rally is losing momentum. |
| 50-day moving average | $63.66 | The 50-day MA sits near $63.66. A pullback toward it would be a normal correction in a strong trend. |
| 200-day moving average | $51.54 | The 200-day MA at $51.54 marks the long-term trend line. Staying above it keeps the structural uptrend intact. |
| Near resistance | $85 to $87 | The stock stalled near the record high of $87.03 and pulled back to $83.02. A clean break above $87.03 is needed to extend the rally. |
| Next resistance above | $90 to $100 | If $87 breaks, the next target zone is $90 to $100, aligning with Goldman Sachs ($92) and TD Cowen ($100) price targets. |
| Momentum | Positive but stretched, RSI near 70.8 | RSI above 70 signals overbought conditions after the July surge, suggesting a consolidation phase is possible before the next move. |
| Volume | 628,208 shares on Aug 3 vs a 972,371 20-day average | Volume on the pullback day was below average. Watch for volume confirmation on any breakout above $87. |
| Invalidation | Close below $63 | A sustained break below the 50-day moving average near $63.66 would suggest the uptrend has failed and the stock could retest the $55 to $60 zone. |
PARR AI trading strategy
The PARR AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It connects price action with crack spread trends, refining margins, renewable fuels, debt management, and industry cycle indicators.
PARR is in a confirmed uptrend above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. Look for pullbacks toward $77 to $80 or the 50-day MA near $63.66 as potential entries. A breakout above $87.03 on strong volume could signal momentum resumption.
Monitor crack spreads, refinery utilization, and product inventory data. If refining margins contract significantly, the trend-following thesis weakens regardless of price action.
If PARR pulls back sharply on margin concerns, compare the entry with estimated mid-cycle earnings power. At normalized adjusted EPS of $6 to $9, a $60 entry would be 7-10x earnings, fair but not a deep bargain after the 2026 rerating.
Do not buy purely because the forward P/E looks low near 5x. Refining stocks look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. Base position sizing on normalized earnings, not record-cycle numbers.
Track Par Pacific quarterly crack spread realizations, the renewable fuels contribution, debt levels after the $500 million notes offering, Hawaii jet fuel demand, and buyback activity. Q2 2026 results are scheduled for August 4, 2026.
Position sizing should reflect that PARR is a cyclical refiner near a peak. Watch for a sustained contraction in crack spreads or a drop in utilization as early warning signals. The roughly 9% short interest can add volatility in both directions.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Par Pacific to refine crude oil into gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, and asphalt and to move those products through retail and logistics networks. The business is strongest when crack spreads are wide, economic activity is high, and crude supply is stable.
Par Pacific moat comes from geographic position in logistically complex markets (especially Hawaii, the most isolated US refinery market), limited West Coast refinery competition, retail brands, and terminal, pipeline, and storage assets. The moat is narrow but defensible for medium-cycle periods.
The thesis fails if crack spreads normalize faster than expected, a recession cuts fuel demand, the Hawaii refinery faces regulatory, price-lag, or operational issues, renewable fuels returns fall short, or debt from the $500 million notes offering becomes burdensome in a downturn.
Will Monteleone leads as President and CEO. The team has shown disciplined capital allocation with a $28 million Q1 buyback at an average of $37.96, the May 2026 notes refinancing, and delivery of the Hawaii renewable fuels facility into commercial operations. The next test is capital allocation if margins turn down.
Independent refiners face a mixed outlook: strong near-term margins from tight global supply and geopolitical risk, but long-term pressure from the energy transition. The industry looks late-cycle, and the speed of the next downturn is the central uncertainty.
At $83.02 with a forward P/E near 5x, PARR looks cheap on record 2026 estimates of $16.10 adjusted EPS. But consensus expects EPS to fall to $11.34 in 2027, so the margin of safety depends on how long crack spreads stay elevated and how much renewable fuels contribute during a refining downturn.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| PARR quote reference | $83.02 close on August 3, 2026, down 3.50% on the day | StockAnalysis.com PARR overview | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $4.16 billion calculated from $83.02 x 50.14M shares; reported at $4.16 billion | StockAnalysis.com PARR statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | Approximately 50.14 million shares, down 8.85% year over year | StockAnalysis.com PARR statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Revenue (TTM) | $7.54 billion trailing revenue | StockAnalysis.com PARR statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Net income (TTM) | $454.24 million GAAP net income to common | StockAnalysis.com PARR statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| EPS (TTM) | $8.99 diluted EPS | StockAnalysis.com PARR statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Forward earnings estimates | 2026 consensus adjusted EPS of $16.10 and 2027 consensus adjusted EPS of $11.34; forward P/E of 4.61 | StockAnalysis.com PARR forecast | July 23, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | $172.17 million total cash; $1.36 billion total debt; net cash of -$1.18 billion | StockAnalysis.com PARR statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Free cash flow | $255.02 million trailing free cash flow; operating cash flow of $406.03 million | StockAnalysis.com PARR statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | P/E 9.22, forward P/E 4.61, P/S 0.56, P/B 2.80, P/FCF 16.62, EV/EBITDA 7.12 | StockAnalysis.com PARR statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Profitability | Gross margin 19.02%, operating margin 7.96%, profit margin 6.02%, ROE 33.32%, ROA 9.42%, ROIC 17.34% | StockAnalysis.com PARR statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical references | 52-week range $26.83 to $87.03, 52-week change +176.92%, beta 0.82, 50-day MA $63.66, 200-day MA $51.54, RSI 70.80, average volume 972,371 | StockAnalysis.com PARR statistics and history | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 results | Net income of $54.5 million, or $1.10 per diluted share; adjusted EBITDA of $91.5 million; $28 million buyback at $37.96; record Hawaii throughput of 89.8 Mbpd; Hawaii renewable fuels facility reached commercial operations in April 2026 | Par Pacific Q1 2026 earnings release via GlobeNewswire | May 5, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Consensus Buy from 7 analysts; average price target $83.00, median $85, range $65 to $100; Goldman Sachs $92, TD Cowen $100, Raymond James $85, Mizuho $80, J.P. Morgan $85, UBS $65 | StockAnalysis.com PARR forecast and ratings | July 23, 2026 |
| Balance sheet and liquidity | Cash of $172.2 million, gross term debt of $637.9 million, total liquidity of $937.7 million at March 31, 2026 | Par Pacific Q1 2026 earnings release via GlobeNewswire | May 5, 2026 |
This PARR AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, tax advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of August 4, 2026, and can be wrong if crack spreads, global oil supply, fuel demand, Par Pacific operational performance, debt management, renewable fuels margins, or broader economic conditions change.
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