Par Pacific Holdings research snapshot
PARR AI stock analysis currently reads Par Pacific Holdings as an independent oil refiner enjoying a strong 2026 cycle. The July 12, 2026 data cutoff shows a company generating $7.54 billion in trailing revenue and $454 million in net income. The stock closed at $65.78 on July 10, giving it a $3.30 billion market cap and a 7.45x trailing P/E. Par Pacific operates refineries in Hawaii, Washington, and Wyoming, along with retail fuel distribution and logistics infrastructure across the Pacific and Mountain regions. The stock has surged 87% year to date, driven by elevated crack spreads, strong gasoline and diesel demand, and the company renewable fuels expansion. Mizuho recently raised its price target to $80 with an Outperform rating. The PARR AI stock forecast is scenario-based: the trailing P/E of 7.45x reflects peak-cycle earnings, while the forward P/E of 15.65x signals expected normalization. The key swing factors are crack spread trajectory, renewable diesel margin contribution, debt management, and broader economic demand for refined products.
Current price
$65.78
Market cap
$3.30B verified market cap using 50.14M shares at $65.78
AI score
68 / 100
Rating
Independent oil refiner with strong 2026 momentum driven by elevated crack spreads, a growing renewable fuels business, and an active buyback program
Trend status
Strong uptrend in 2026: up 87% YTD and trading near the 52-week high of $70.39, reflecting favorable refining margins and strong operational execution
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Par Pacific refines crude oil into gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, and asphalt in Hawaii, Washington, and Wyoming. It also operates retail fuel outlets and logistics infrastructure that provide some earnings stability versus pure refining. | Medium |
| Moat | The moat comes from geographic positioning in logistically complex markets (Hawaii is the most isolated refinery in the US), limited West Coast competition, retail brand presence (Hele, 76), and pipeline/terminal infrastructure. The moat narrows if renewable fuels structurally reduce gasoline demand. | Low-medium |
| Management | CEO William Pate has led Par Pacific since 2015, growing the company from a small refiner to a mid-cap through acquisitions, operational improvements, and now renewable fuels investment. The team has demonstrated good capital allocation with buybacks and the recent $500M note offering. | Medium |
| Financial trend | Revenue and earnings are cyclical with crack spreads. TTM revenue of $7.54B and net income of $454M show strong current profitability. Net debt is manageable with $172M cash against total debt of roughly $1.3B. ROE of 33% reflects both leverage and high current returns. | Medium |
| Valuation | At $65.78, the trailing P/E of 7.45x and P/S of 0.44x look cheap, but the forward P/E of 15.65x tells a different story, implying the market expects earnings to normalize. P/B of 2.18x and EV/EBITDA of 5.66x are reasonable for the cycle stage. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | The stock is in a strong uptrend, up 87% YTD and trading near the $70.39 52-week high. The momentum is clearly positive but the stock has pulled back about 7% from the May peak, suggesting some profit-taking near the highs. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are crack spread normalization reducing earnings, renewable fuel policy changes, Hawaii regulatory environment, debt leverage, operational disruptions at any of its three refineries, and broader economic recession reducing fuel demand. | High |
| AI confidence | Data confidence is medium-high for current reported financials. Confidence is lower for forward estimates because refining margins are driven by global supply-demand dynamics, OPEC policy, and economic activity that cannot be predicted with precision. | Medium-high data, low-medium forward |
| Investment certainty | PARR is a well-run independent refiner in a strong cycle, but the low trailing P/E is a cyclical value trap pattern, not a deep value opportunity. The forward P/E of 15.65x prices in significant normalization, leaving limited upside unless crack spreads stay elevated longer than expected. | Low-medium |
PARR AI stock forecast
The PARR AI stock forecast uses the $65.78 price reference, TTM EPS of $8.83, and a forward EPS estimate of roughly $4.20 implied by the 15.65x forward P/E. The scenario ranges reflect crack spread trajectory, renewable fuels contribution, and demand conditions. A bullish case near $80 to $95 requires sustained strong margins, while a bearish case near $25 to $40 reflects a sharp refining downturn.
$80 to $95
More likely if crack spreads remain elevated through 2027, renewable diesel margins expand, Par Pacific executes buybacks aggressively, Hawaii tourism sustains jet fuel demand, and the market re-rates the stock toward 10-12x forward earnings.
$55 to $75
More likely if refining margins gradually normalize toward mid-cycle levels, renewable fuels provide modest earnings contribution, the company continues share buybacks at a measured pace, and fuel demand remains stable with moderate economic growth.
$25 to $40
More likely if a sharp economic downturn reduces fuel demand, crack spreads compress significantly, renewable fuel margins turn negative, Hawaii refinery faces regulatory headwinds, or debt covenants become a concern during a prolonged margin downturn.
PARR AI technical analysis
PARR AI technical analysis uses market data available at the July 12, 2026 cutoff. The stock closed at $65.78 on July 10, near the upper end of its 52-week range of $26.83 to $70.39. The stock has been in a powerful uptrend since late 2025, rising from around $35 to the $65-70 zone. Beta of 0.82 is lower than many refiners, suggesting less sensitivity to broad market moves. The key technical question is whether the stock can break above resistance near $70 and extend its rally, or whether it will consolidate in the $55 to $70 range.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $65.78 | July 10, 2026 close from Yahoo Finance, used for market-cap and valuation verification. |
| 52-week high | $70.39 | The May 2026 high represents the top of the current move. A breakout above this level with volume would signal further upside potential. |
| Near support | $58 to $62 | The stock found buying interest in this zone during the June pullback. A hold above $58 keeps the uptrend intact. |
| Major support | $48 to $52 | The pre-rally consolidation zone and the 50-day moving average area. A break below $48 would suggest a deeper correction is underway. |
| Near resistance | $68 to $70 | The stock has stalled near this zone multiple times since May. A clean break above $70.39 is needed to trigger the next leg higher. |
| Next resistance above | $75 to $80 | If $70 breaks, the next logical target zone is $75-80, aligning with analyst price targets from Mizuho ($80) and the consensus mean ($77). |
| Moving averages | 50-day MA likely near $55-58; 200-day MA near $40-45 | The stock is trading well above both key moving averages, confirming the uptrend. A pullback to the 50-day would be a normal correction in a strong trend. |
| Momentum | Positive but moderating after the 87% YTD rally | RSI is likely in the 50-65 range after the recent pullback from $70, suggesting a neutral-to-bullish posture without being overbought. |
| Volume | 663,191 shares on July 10 vs 1,134,420 average | Volume was below average on the recent up day, which suggests less conviction on the bounce. Watch for volume confirmation on any breakout above $70. |
| Invalidation | Close below $48 | A sustained break below $48 would suggest the uptrend has failed and the stock could retest the $35-40 zone. |
PARR AI trading strategy
The PARR AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It connects price action with crack spread trends, refining margins, renewable fuel policy, debt management, and industry cycle indicators.
PARR is in a confirmed uptrend. Look for pullbacks toward the 50-day moving average near $55-58 as potential entries. A reacceleration above $70 with volume could signal momentum resumption.
Monitor crack spreads, refinery utilization rates, and product inventory data. If refining margins contract significantly, the trend-following thesis weakens regardless of price action.
If PARR pulls back sharply on crack spread concerns, compare the entry price with estimated mid-cycle earnings power. At normalized EPS of $4-6, a $50 entry would be 8-12x earnings, which is fair but not a deep bargain.
Do not buy purely because the trailing P/E looks low at 7.45x. Refining stocks look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. Base position sizing on normalized earnings, not peak-cycle numbers.
Track Par Pacific quarterly crack spread realizations, renewable diesel segment contribution, debt levels after the $500M note offering, Hawaii jet fuel demand trends, and buyback activity.
Position sizing should reflect that PARR is a cyclical refiner, not a stable compounder. The 0.82 beta provides less market hedge than higher-beta refiners. Consider reducing if forward P/E exceeds 18x or if crack spreads show sustained contraction.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Par Pacific to refine crude oil into gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, and asphalt, and to distribute those products through retail and logistics networks. The business is strongest during periods of elevated crack spreads, high economic activity, and stable crude supply.
Par Pacific moat comes from its geographic position in logistically complex markets (especially Hawaii, the most isolated refinery state in the US), limited West Coast refinery competition, retail brand presence, and terminal/pipeline assets. The moat is narrow but defensible for medium-cycle periods.
The thesis fails if crack spreads normalize faster than expected, a recession reduces fuel demand, the Hawaii refinery faces regulatory or operational issues, renewable fuels investment produces sub-economic returns, or debt from the $500M note issuance becomes burdensome during a margin downturn.
William Pate has led Par Pacific since 2015 through a period of significant growth, improving operational reliability and returns. The management team has demonstrated disciplined capital allocation through strategic acquisitions, share buybacks, and the recent debt refinancing. The key test will be capital allocation during the next margin downturn.
Independent refiners face a complex outlook: near-term tailwinds from elevated crack spreads and strong demand, but long-term headwinds from the energy transition toward electric vehicles and renewable fuels. The industry is in a late-cycle boom phase, and the timing and speed of the next downturn is the central uncertainty.
At $65.78 with 7.45x trailing P/E, PARR looks cheap on current earnings. But the forward P/E of 15.65x tells a different story, implying the market expects earnings to roughly halve from current levels. The margin of safety depends on how long crack spreads stay elevated and how much renewable fuels can contribute to earnings during a refining downturn.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| PARR quote reference | $65.78 close on July 10, 2026 | Yahoo Finance PARR summary quote | July 12, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $3.30 billion calculated from $65.78 x 50.144 million shares; reported at $3.30 billion | Yahoo Finance and Barchart | July 12, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | Approximately 50.144 million shares | Barchart key statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Revenue (TTM) | $7.54 billion trailing revenue | Yahoo Finance statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Net income (TTM) | $454.24 million GAAP net income to common | Yahoo Finance statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| EPS (TTM) | $8.83 diluted EPS | Yahoo Finance statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Forward P/E | 15.65x forward PE, implying roughly $4.20 forward EPS | Yahoo Finance statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | $172.17 million total cash; debt/equity ratio of 87.47% | Yahoo Finance statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Free cash flow | $118.49 million levered free cash flow | Yahoo Finance statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | P/S 0.44x, P/B 2.18x, EV/EBITDA 5.66x, EV/Revenue 0.59x | Yahoo Finance statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Profitability | Profit margin 6.02%, ROE 33.32%, ROA 9.42% | Yahoo Finance statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Technical references | 52-week range $26.83 - $70.39, beta 0.82, average volume 1,134,420 | Yahoo Finance and Barchart | July 12, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Mean 1-year price target $77.00; Mizuhu maintains Outperform, raised PT 79 to 80 on July 9, 2026 | Yahoo Finance analysis and Barchart | July 12, 2026 |
This PARR AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, tax advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of July 12, 2026, and can be wrong if crack spreads, global oil supply, fuel demand, Par Pacific operational performance, debt management, renewable fuel margins, or broader economic conditions change.
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