Delek US Holdings Inc. research snapshot
DK AI stock analysis currently sees Delek US Holdings as a cyclical independent refiner with four inland refineries, logistics operations, and a growing renewable fuels business. At the July 12, 2026 data cutoff, the Google Finance reference price was about $55.51 with a market cap of approximately $3.40 billion based on 61.29 million shares outstanding. TTM revenue through March 2026 was about $10.73 billion, but TTM GAAP net income was negative at roughly negative $51.4 million, with adjusted EPS of $0.08 in Q1 2026 beating analyst estimates. The stock has rallied sharply from a $19.81 52-week low to near the $57.57 high, driven by refining margin recovery and renewable fuel policy catalysts. This is an informational research tool, not investment advice.
Current price
$55.51 reference price
Market cap
$3.40 billion verified market cap
AI score
58 / 100
Rating
Cyclical independent refiner with geographically advantaged inland refineries, improving renewable fuels exposure, a dividend yield near 1.9%, but negative GAAP net income over the trailing twelve months and high exposure to crack spread volatility
Trend status
Bullish near-term structure: price near $55.51 is above both the 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages after a strong recovery from the $19.81 52-week low, suggesting upward momentum with caution near the $57.57 52-week high
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Delek US refines crude oil into gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, and asphalt at four inland refineries with about 302,000 barrels per day of capacity, operates logistics infrastructure through Delek Logistics (DKL), and produces renewable diesel and biodiesel. FY2023 revenue was $16.9 billion, and TTM revenue through March 2026 was about $10.7 billion, reflecting normalizing post-pandemic demand. | High |
| Moat | Delek advantages include inland refinery locations with access to discounted Permian Basin crude, logistical integration, and long-standing customer relationships. The moat is limited because refining is a cyclical commodity business with low switching costs for customers, and margins depend on crack spreads and crude differentials that can reverse quickly. | Medium |
| Management | CEO Avigal Soreq leads a management team that has navigated the Alon USA merger, retail asset sales, renewable fuels expansion, and logistics investments. Capital allocation has included both acquisitions and share buybacks, though total debt and negative TTM net income suggest balance sheet discipline is important. | Medium |
| Financial trend | Revenue has normalized from pandemic lows, but TTM GAAP net income through March 2026 was about negative $51.4 million. Adjusted Q1 2026 EPS of $0.08 beat analyst estimates of negative $1.61. The dividend of $1.04 per year provides a 1.87% yield, a positive signal that management sees sufficient cash flow. | High |
| Valuation | At about $55.51, TTM GAAP P/E is not meaningful at negative $0.87 EPS, but the stock trades at roughly 0.32x TTM revenue, reasonable for a cyclical refiner. The 1.87% dividend yield and beta of 0.58 suggest lower volatility than the broader energy sector. | Medium |
| Technical trend | As of the July 12 chart snapshot, price near $55.51 was above estimated 50-day and 200-day SMAs after a strong rally from the $19.81 52-week low, with the 52-week high at $57.57 only about 3.7% above the current price. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Risk is elevated due to crack spread volatility, crude differential narrowing, regulatory changes including RFS and RIN prices, renewable diesel policy uncertainty, debt leverage, geographic concentration in four inland refineries, and commodity price exposure. | High |
| AI confidence | The public record supports a high-confidence description of reported data and competitive structure, but it does not turn commodity price cycles, crack spread movements, or regulatory changes into reliable forecasts. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Investment certainty is medium-low: the stock offers a dividend and has rallied strongly, but refining margins are cyclical and TTM GAAP earnings are negative, meaning the margin of safety depends on crack spreads and crude differentials remaining supportive. | Medium-low |
DK AI stock forecast
The DK AI stock forecast uses scenario-based analysis rather than a precise price promise. The stock trades near $55.51 after a sharp rally from $19.81, with the next catalyst being sustained crack spreads and renewable fuel policy. The following ranges are sensitivity estimates based on refining margin, utilization, and valuation assumptions from publicly available financial data as of July 12, 2026.
$65 to $80
More likely if crack spreads remain elevated, crude differentials stay wide for inland refiners, renewable diesel margins improve, RIN costs decline, the balance sheet strengthens through debt reduction, and the refining cycle avoids a sharp downturn. A dividend increase would signal management confidence.
$45 to $60
More likely if refining margins normalize toward historical averages, crude differentials narrow modestly, renewable fuels contribute but do not transform earnings, and the stock maintains a mid-cycle multiple near the current range.
$25 to $40
More likely if crack spreads compress sharply, a recession reduces fuel demand, RIN costs spike, the renewable diesel transition disappoints, debt leverage becomes a concern, or the company faces an operational disruption at one of its four refineries.
DK AI technical analysis
DK AI technical analysis shows a strong upward trend as of the July 12, 2026 research cutoff. The Google Finance reference price near $55.51 is above both the estimated 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages, indicating bullish momentum after recovering from the $19.81 52-week low. The stock is trading near the $57.57 52-week high, which acts as near-term resistance. These levels are a monitoring framework, not a live trade signal.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Reference price | $55.51 | Google Finance regular market price near $55.51 at the July 12, 2026 data cutoff. This is the page reference, not a live quote. |
| Immediate support | $50.00 to $52.00 | This zone represents a psychological round number and potential prior consolidation area after the rally from the lows. |
| Deeper support | $40.00 to $42.00 | Back below the round $40 level would signal a potential trend reversal and suggest the rally has exhausted. |
| Near resistance | $57.57 | The 52-week high of $57.57 from Google Finance is the immediate resistance level. A breakout above this would be a bullish signal. |
| Longer-term resistance | $60.00 to $65.00 | The $60 round number and the area above the 52-week high represent potential longer-term resistance if the stock breaks out. |
| Moving averages | Price above both 50-day and 200-day SMAs | The stock is above both key moving averages, a bullish configuration. Exact SMA values should be recalculated from a current chart. |
| Momentum | Bullish from $19.81 low | The rally from $19.81 to $55.51 represents strong momentum, but the proximity to the 52-week high means the stock may need positive catalysts to break through. |
| Volume | Average daily volume about 1.18 million shares | Google Finance shows average volume of about 1.18M shares and recent volume of 1.05M, indicating normal trading activity. |
| Volatility | Moderate, beta 0.58 | The beta of 0.58 suggests lower volatility than the broad market, but refining stocks can gap on crack spread news and earnings reports. |
| Invalidation | Sustained close below $40.00 | A decisive break below the $40 area would invalidate the bullish trend and suggest the rally is over. Re-evaluate fundamental conditions. |
DK AI trading strategy
This DK AI trading strategy is a research framework, not personal financial advice. It ties chart levels to the operational drivers that matter most: crack spreads, crude differentials, refinery utilization rates, RIN prices, renewable diesel margins, debt levels, dividend coverage, and commodity cycle positioning.
Watch for price to hold above the estimated 50-day SMA and break above the $57.57 52-week high on above-average volume while crack spreads and refining margins support the move. Monitor quarterly earnings for evidence of sustained profitability.
If the stock fails to break the $57.57 high and reverses below $50 with rising volume, treat it as a potential double-top pattern. Reduce position size if GAAP losses persist or crack spreads narrow.
If DK pulls back to the $40 to $45 area, compare the reset valuation with book value, debt levels, refining capacity utilization, crack spread outlook, and renewable diesel margins before considering re-entry.
Do not buy the dip solely because the stock is down from its high. Check whether the pullback is driven by cyclical softening or company-specific issues such as a refinery outage or adverse regulatory change.
Track the $1.04 annual dividend (paid quarterly at $0.26), crack spreads, RIN prices, refinery utilization rates, renewable diesel margins, debt reduction progress, and insider buying or selling activity.
Reduce confidence if the dividend is cut, GAAP losses widen, debt increases materially, or if renewable diesel policy shifts negatively. The dividend coverage from free cash flow is a key health indicator.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Delek US to convert crude oil into refined petroleum products (gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, asphalt) through four inland refineries, and to transport and store crude and refined products through its logistics network. Delek also produces biodiesel and renewable diesel, positioning for the energy transition.
Delek advantages include inland refinery access to discounted Permian Basin crude, long-standing customer and supplier relationships, logistics integration through Delek Logistics (DKL), and operational experience across four refineries. The moat is limited by the cyclical and commoditized nature of refining, where margins depend on external crack spreads and crude differentials.
The thesis fails if crack spreads compress due to new refining capacity, recession, or EV adoption; if crude differentials narrow, removing the inland refinery advantage; if RIN prices spike or renewable fuel credits become a net cost; if a major refinery outage occurs; if debt becomes unsustainable in a down-cycle; or if the renewable diesel transition consumes capital without generating adequate returns.
Management has executed the Alon USA integration, exited retail through the FEMSA sale, invested in renewable fuels capacity, and grown the logistics platform. The key question is whether capital allocation will prioritize debt reduction and dividend growth over further acquisitions during the next refining downturn.
US refining faces long-term headwinds from EV adoption, renewable fuel mandates, and potential demand destruction, but near-term margins benefit from constrained domestic capacity, geopolitical supply disruptions, and growing export demand. Renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel represent growth avenues if policy support continues.
At about $55.51, DK reflects the recent refining margin recovery and optimism about renewable fuels. The margin of safety improves if crack spreads stay supportive and the company reduces debt, and weakens if margins normalize toward cycle lows, GAAP losses persist, or regulatory changes increase compliance costs. Tool-checked market cap of $3.40B and 0.32x TTM revenue are reasonable for a cyclical refiner with $10.7B in TTM revenue.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK quote reference | About $55.51 Google Finance regular market price on July 10, 2026 close | Google Finance DK | July 12, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $3.40 billion calculated from $55.51 x 61.29 million shares; 0.06% deviation from Google Finance reported $3.40B | Pineify financial_rigor.py verification, Google Finance market data | July 12, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 61.29 million shares outstanding as reported by Google Finance key statistics | Google Finance DK key statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM revenue (through March 2026) | Approximately $10.73 billion from Google Finance quarterly data: Jun 2025 $2.76B, Sep 2025 $2.89B, Dec 2025 $2.43B, Mar 2026 $2.65B | Google Finance DK income statement | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM net income (through March 2026) | Approximately negative $51.4 million using GAAP quarterly data: Jun 2025 -$106.4M, Sep 2025 $178.0M, Dec 2025 $78.3M, Mar 2026 -$201.3M | Google Finance DK income statement quarterly data | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 earnings | Q1 2026 revenue $2.65B, adjusted EPS $0.08 (beat estimate of -$1.61), GAAP net income -$201.3M | Google Finance DK earnings and income statement data | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2023 annual revenue | $16.917 billion reported by Wikipedia, down from $20.246 billion in FY2022 | Wikipedia Delek US | July 12, 2026 |
| Dividend and yield | Quarterly dividend $0.26, annual dividend $1.04, forward yield approximately 1.87% | Google Finance DK dividends | July 12, 2026 |
| EPS and valuation math | TTM GAAP EPS approximately negative $0.87, P/E not meaningful. Price to TTM revenue approximately 0.32x. Dividend yield 1.87%. Beta 0.58. | Pineify financial_rigor.py and Google Finance data | July 12, 2026 |
| Technical reference | Google Finance chart snapshot: price about $55.51, 52-week range $19.81 to $57.57, average volume about 1.18 million shares | Google Finance DK chart and overview | July 12, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | 4 Buy, 5 Hold, 0 Sell ratings with average price target $51.89 (range $34.00 to $60.00) | Google Finance DK analyst ratings | July 12, 2026 |
| Refining capacity | Four inland refineries with combined crude throughput capacity of about 302,000 barrels per day, located in Texas, Louisiana, and Arkansas | Wikipedia Delek US | July 12, 2026 |
This DK AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future returns. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available public data as of July 12, 2026 and can be wrong if crack spreads, crude differentials, RIN prices, regulatory changes, commodity prices, refining margins, or market multiples change.
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