On Holding AG research snapshot
ONON AI stock analysis currently reads On Holding AG as a high-quality premium running brand with record first-quarter profitability, strong constant-currency growth, and a net cash balance sheet, but a chart that has not yet repaired above either major moving average. At the August 3, 2026 data cutoff, ONON closed at $36.24 on July 31, 2026, market capitalization was about $12.00 billion, trailing twelve-month revenue was about $3.89 billion, and trailing EPS was $0.93. Q1 2026 net sales reached a record CHF 831.9 million, up 26.4% constant currency, with a 64.2% gross margin and a 21.0% adjusted EBITDA margin, while the company reaffirmed at least 23% constant currency net sales growth for 2026. This page uses scenario analysis, not a certain stock price prediction, and it is an informational tool rather than investment advice.
Current price
$36.24
Market cap
$12.00 billion
AI score
66 / 100
Rating
Premium growth brand at a more reasonable multiple, below technical repair
Trend status
Price below both the 50-day and 200-day averages after a weak July close; Q2 2026 results due August 11
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | On sells premium running and lifestyle footwear, apparel, and accessories through wholesale and DTC. Record Q1 2026 sales, gross margin near 64%, and a 21% adjusted EBITDA margin point to a high-quality consumer franchise, not a commodity sneaker maker. | High |
| Moat | The moat is mostly brand, product design (CloudTec and LightSpray platforms), athlete and cultural marketing, and rising DTC mix. Switching costs are low and fashion risk is real, so the moat is brand-led rather than structural lock-in. | Medium |
| Management | Co-founders David Allemann and Caspar Coppetti took over as co-CEOs in March 2026 as Martin Hoffmann exited, and Frank Sluis became CFO. The three founders each bought about $2.2 million of stock in June 2026, an alignment signal, but a new C-suite and dual-class voting still need to prove execution. | Medium |
| Financial trend | Q1 2026 net sales rose 26.4% constant currency to CHF 831.9 million with a 64.2% gross margin and 21.0% adjusted EBITDA margin, and net income rose 82% to CHF 103.3 million. FY 2025 sales grew 30% to CHF 3.01 billion while reported net income declined, and the company holds about CHF 1.02 billion in cash. | High |
| Valuation | At $36.24 and $0.93 EPS, verified trailing P/E is about 38.8x to 39.0x, P/S about 3.1x, P/B about 5.4x, and P/FCF about 30x. Forward P/E near 20x and PEG near 0.8 improve the case only if 2026 adjusted EPS growth near 77% is delivered. | High for math, medium for forward value |
| Technical trend | Price at $36.24 sits below the roughly $37.58 50-day average and the roughly $40.60 200-day average, and well below the $52.20 52-week high. The chart is still in a repair attempt, not a confirmed uptrend. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is medium-high because athletic fashion cycles reverse, FX can distort reported growth, footwear production is concentrated in Vietnam, a 20% U.S. tariff assumption is embedded in guidance, and beta near 2.1 implies sharp drawdowns. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High confidence for quote data, market cap math, company-reported CHF sales, cash, margins, and public valuation ratios. Lower confidence for management transition outcomes, tariff pass-through, and multi-year category share durability. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. ONON fits a quality-growth watchlist near analyst targets when technical repair and Q2 earnings follow-through align, but it is not a low-uncertainty compounder at a cheap absolute multiple. | Medium |
ONON AI stock forecast
The ONON AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges around the $36.24 close rather than a single target. The bullish case needs sustained constant-currency growth near company guidance, premium gross margins, and a reclaim of the 200-day average. The base case assumes growth cools toward high teens while the market keeps a mid-teens to low-20s earnings multiple near the analyst consensus. The bearish case assumes fashion heat fades, tariffs or FX erode margins, growth decelerates sharply, or multiple compression retests the 52-week low and below.
$58.00 to $72.00
More likely if FY 2026 constant currency sales growth stays at least in the low-to-mid 20% range, gross margin holds above the 64.5% company outlook, DTC and APAC keep outperforming, Q2 2026 results on August 11 confirm the trend, and ONON sustains a move above the 200-day average toward the upper analyst targets near $60 to $70.
$42.00 to $52.00
More likely if sales growth settles near the high teens, adjusted EPS grows toward the analyst 2026 estimate near $1.41 in CHF terms, and the market values ONON near a mid-teens to low-20s P/E while the stock recovers to the analyst median target near $49.
$24.00 to $33.00
More likely if product heat cools, wholesale cancellations rise, gross margin compresses under tariffs or promotions, growth falls toward mid-single digits, and ONON breaks below the $31.41 52-week low with a lower teens earnings multiple toward the low analyst target near $24.
ONON AI technical analysis
ONON AI technical analysis starts from the $36.24 close on July 31, 2026, the $31.41 to $52.20 52-week range, and public moving-average data available near the August 3, 2026 cutoff. Because this static page does not fetch request-time chart data, live price, volume, RSI, and moving averages should be confirmed before trading.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $36.24 | StockAnalysis reported the close at $36.24 on July 31, 2026, down 2.32% on the day, with after-hours near $36.25. |
| Near support | $31.41 to $34.50 | The lower bound is the reported 52-week low and the upper bound is a round-number area above it. Treat this as a planning band, not a guaranteed floor. |
| Near resistance | $37.58 to $40.60 | The lower bound is the 50-day moving average and the upper bound is the 200-day moving average. A sustained reclaim of both would materially improve the setup. |
| 50-day moving average | $37.58 | StockAnalysis placed the 50-day average above the latest close, so short-term momentum is not yet constructive. |
| 200-day moving average | $40.60 | StockAnalysis placed the 200-day average well above the latest close, so the intermediate-to-long-term trend is not yet repaired. |
| Momentum | Neutral to weak short term | RSI near 45.8 is neither oversold nor overbought. Price below both moving averages with a sub-50 RSI fits a downtrend or basing phase, not a confirmed upturn. |
| Volume | 3.11 million latest volume, 3.83 million 20-day average | The July 31 decline traded below the recent average. Confirm live volume before treating any move as durable. |
| Volatility | High (beta about 2.12) | ONON can swing hard around the August 11 earnings report, FX headlines, tariff news, and athletic fashion rotations. Position size should assume wide ranges. |
| Invalidation | Close below $31.41 | A decisive close below the reported 52-week low would weaken the base-building and premium-growth repair thesis. |
ONON AI trading strategy
The ONON AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework for a premium growth consumer brand that is below its major moving averages ahead of a Q2 earnings report. It is not personalized advice. Any setup should be paired with position sizing, stop levels, updated filings, and live chart confirmation.
Wait for ONON to reclaim the 50-day average near $37.58 and then the 200-day average near $40.60 on rising volume, with follow-through toward the $44 to $52 zone. A stronger version requires multi-session acceptance above the 200-day average rather than a single spike, ideally confirmed after the August 11 report.
A failed reclaim or a fresh close below the 50-day average after a 200-day test should invalidate the momentum version of the setup.
If ONON retests the $31.41 to $34.50 support band without a fresh collapse in constant-currency growth or gross margin, compare price action with DTC mix, Americas and APAC trends, inventory quality, guidance language, and the Q2 2026 print on August 11.
Do not average down without a predefined maximum loss and a check that short interest, wholesale cancellations, tariff costs, or FX effects are not accelerating.
Track constant-currency net sales, gross margin versus the at least 64.5% FY 2026 outlook, adjusted EBITDA margin versus the 19.5% to 20.0% range, DTC share, cash conversion, Vietnam production and tariff exposure, co-CEO capital allocation signals, and category expansion comments including football.
Reduce confidence when price strength comes only from broad market beta or one-time FX effects while constant-currency growth and sell-through deteriorate.
Investment research summary
Customers pay On for premium running performance, CloudTec and LightSpray cushioning feel, design-led lifestyle footwear, and brand status across wholesale doors, owned stores, and digital DTC. The company is expanding beyond core running into outdoor, training, tennis, apparel, and potentially football.
On has a brand and product-design moat supported by athlete marketing, premium price architecture, rising DTC engagement, and scale in performance running. Network effects are limited and switching costs are low, so the moat can narrow quickly if product cycles miss or promotions rise.
The thesis can fail if fashion heat fades, Nike or HOKA reclaim share, Vietnam supply is disrupted, the 20% tariff assumption turns out too low, FX keeps masking real growth, the new co-CEO and CFO team stumbles, dual-class control leads to poor capital allocation, or the premium multiple collapses as growth decelerates.
Founders David Allemann and Caspar Coppetti became co-CEOs in March 2026 as Martin Hoffmann stepped down, and Frank Sluis joined as CFO. The founder team retains Class B voting control. Open-market purchases by Bernhard, Allemann, and Coppetti in June 2026 are a positive alignment signal, but key-person, new-C-suite, and dual-class governance risk remain.
Global performance running and premium sneakers remain growth-advantaged versus basic athletic footwear, helped by health, training, and fashion crossover demand. The category is still competitive with Nike, Adidas, Deckers (HOKA), ASICS, New Balance, and many niche labels.
A roughly 39x trailing P/E and 3.1x sales leave limited margin of safety if growth cools, but net cash near $600 million and a forward P/E near 20x improve the setup if FY 2026 guidance for at least 23% constant currency growth and a 64.5% gross margin is delivered.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| ONON price | $36.24 close on July 31, 2026, down 2.32% on the day | StockAnalysis ONON quote | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $12.00 billion, verified as $36.24 x 331.00 million shares with 0.04% deviation | financial_rigor.py market cap verification | August 3, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 331.00 million valuation shares; 296.87 million current Class A share class | StockAnalysis statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM revenue and net income | About $3.89 billion revenue and $312.05 million net income | StockAnalysis statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM EPS and trailing P/E | $0.93 EPS and about 38.8x to 39.0x verified trailing P/E | financial_rigor.py valuation verification | August 3, 2026 |
| FY 2025 net sales (CHF) | CHF 3,014.0 million, up 30.0% reported and 35.6% constant currency, with reported net income of CHF 203.7 million | On Holding FY 2025 company results | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 net sales | CHF 831.9 million, up 14.5% reported and 26.4% constant currency, a record first-quarter result | On Holding Q1 2026 results | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 profitability | Gross profit margin 64.2% (up 430 bps), adjusted EBITDA margin 21.0%, net income margin 12.4%, net income CHF 103.3 million | On Holding Q1 2026 results | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 channel and regional mix | DTC CHF 322.3 million (28.7% CC growth) and wholesale CHF 509.6 million; APAC up 61.4% constant currency to over 20% of sales | On Holding Q1 2026 results | August 3, 2026 |
| Cash and net cash | Company cash about CHF 1,020.4 million at March 31, 2026; StockAnalysis cash $1.27 billion, debt $675.58 million, net cash $596.54 million | On Holding Q1 2026 results and StockAnalysis statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Free cash flow | About $399.13 million TTM FCF, or $1.21 per share | StockAnalysis statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Valuation snapshot | Trailing P/E about 38.8x, forward P/E 20.16, P/S 3.08, P/B 5.44, P/FCF 30.05, PEG 0.77 | StockAnalysis statistics and financial_rigor.py | August 3, 2026 |
| Ownership and float | About 25.96% insider ownership, 64.20% institutional ownership, 244.97 million float shares; dual-class Class B founder voting control | StockAnalysis statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Short interest | 21.25 million shares short, or 6.42% of shares outstanding and 8.68% of float, about 4.41 days to cover | StockAnalysis statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 52-week range $31.41 to $52.20, 50-day average $37.58, 200-day average $40.60, RSI 45.84, beta 2.12 | StockAnalysis statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| FY 2026 company outlook (after Q1) | At least 23% constant currency net sales growth (at least CHF 3.51 billion reported), gross margin at least 64.5%, adjusted EBITDA margin 19.5% to 20.0%, embedding a 20% U.S. tariff rate on Vietnam imports | On Holding Q1 2026 results and guidance commentary | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus snapshot | Average price target $51.71 from 27 analysts, median $49.29, range $23.95 to $83.05, consensus Buy | StockAnalysis forecast data | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst actions in late July 2026 | Citi maintained Buy at $60, UBS trimmed to $83 from $85, Bernstein held Buy at $70, Raymond James reiterated Buy at $52, Stifel held Buy at $60 | StockAnalysis forecast data and news | August 3, 2026 |
| Next earnings date | Q2 2026 results scheduled for Tuesday, August 11, 2026 | StockAnalysis and On Holding announcement | August 3, 2026 |
This page is an informational research tool, not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Forecast scenarios use available data and assumptions that can be wrong. Review primary filings, confirm live price data, and consider professional advice before making an investment decision.
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