On Holding AG research snapshot
ONON AI stock analysis currently reads On Holding AG as a high-quality premium sportswear brand with strong constant-currency growth, expanding gross margins, and net cash, but a valuation that still prices in continued category share gains. At the July 12, 2026 data cutoff, ONON closed at $38.54 on July 10, 2026, market capitalization was about $12.76 billion, trailing twelve-month revenue was about $3.89 billion, and trailing EPS was $0.93. Full-year 2025 net sales reached CHF 3,014.0 million, up 30.0% reported and 35.6% constant currency, while Q1 2026 net sales hit a record CHF 831.9 million. This page uses scenario analysis, not a certain stock price prediction, and it is an informational tool rather than investment advice.
Current price
$38.54
Market cap
$12.76 billion
AI score
68 / 100
Rating
Premium growth brand, still priced for execution
Trend status
Short-term bounce above the 50-day average, still below the 200-day average
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | On sells premium running and lifestyle footwear, apparel, and accessories through wholesale and DTC. Growth, gross margin near 64%, and brand heat point to a high-quality consumer franchise, not a commodity sneaker maker. | High |
| Moat | The moat is mostly brand, product design (CloudTec platform), athlete and cultural marketing, and rising DTC mix. Switching costs are low and fashion risk is real, so the moat is brand-led rather than structural lock-in. | Medium |
| Management | Co-founders David Allemann and Caspar Coppetti became co-CEOs in March 2026 after a management transition. Founders bought Class A shares in May 2026, which improves alignment, but dual-class voting still concentrates control. | Medium |
| Financial trend | FY 2025 sales grew 30% to CHF 3.01 billion with 62.8% gross margin and 18.8% adjusted EBITDA margin. Q1 2026 continued with 26.4% constant-currency sales growth, 64.2% gross margin, and 21% adjusted EBITDA margin, plus more than CHF 1.0 billion cash. | High |
| Valuation | At $38.54 and $0.93 EPS, verified trailing P/E is about 41.4x, P/B about 5.8x, and P/FCF about 32x. Forward P/E near 21x and PEG near 0.8 improve the case only if growth and earnings power stay elevated. | High for math, medium for forward value |
| Technical trend | Price is above the roughly $37.13 50-day average after a July bounce, but still below the roughly $41.04 200-day average and well below the $54.72 52-week high. The chart is a repair attempt, not a confirmed long-term uptrend. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is medium-high because athletic fashion cycles reverse, FX can distort reported growth, footwear production is concentrated in Vietnam, tariffs can hit costs, and the stock beta near 2.1 implies sharp drawdowns. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High confidence for quote data, market cap math, company-reported CHF sales, cash, margins, and public valuation ratios. Lower confidence for multi-year category share durability and category expansion outcomes such as football. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. ONON can fit a quality-growth watchlist when technical repair and earnings follow-through align, but it is not a low-uncertainty compounder at a cheap absolute multiple. | Medium |
ONON AI stock forecast
The ONON AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges around the $38.54 close rather than a single target. The bullish case needs sustained constant-currency growth near company guidance, premium gross margins, and a reclaim of the 200-day average. The base case assumes growth cools toward high teens while the market keeps a mid-20s earnings multiple. The bearish case assumes fashion heat fades, growth decelerates sharply, or multiple compression retests the lower end of the 52-week range and below.
$55.00 to $72.00
More likely if FY 2026 constant-currency sales growth stays at least in the low-to-mid 20% range, gross margin holds near the 64.5% company outlook, DTC and APAC keep outperforming, EPS compounds near 30% for three years, and ONON sustains a move above the 200-day average toward the mid-$50s analyst-target zone.
$36.00 to $45.00
More likely if sales growth settles near the high teens, trailing EPS grows around 18% annually from the $0.93 base, and the market values ONON near a mid-20s P/E while the stock oscillates between the 50-day and 200-day averages.
$19.00 to $31.50
More likely if product heat cools, wholesale cancellations rise, gross margin compresses under tariffs or promotions, growth falls toward mid-single digits, and ONON breaks below the $31.41 52-week low with a lower teens to high-teens earnings multiple.
ONON AI technical analysis
ONON AI technical analysis starts from the $38.54 close on July 10, 2026, the $36.67 to $38.82 daily range, the $31.41 to $54.72 52-week range, and public moving-average data available near the July 12, 2026 cutoff. Because this static page does not fetch request-time chart data, live price, volume, RSI, and moving averages should be confirmed before trading.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $38.54 | StockAnalysis reported the close at $38.54 on July 10, 2026, with after-hours trading near $38.80. |
| Near support | $31.41 to $37.13 | The lower bound is the reported 52-week low and the upper bound is the 50-day moving average zone. Treat this as a planning band, not a guaranteed floor. |
| Near resistance | $41.04 to $52.20 | The lower bound is the reported 200-day average and the upper bound is the average analyst price target near $52.20. A sustained reclaim of the 200-day average would improve the setup. |
| 50-day moving average | $37.13 | StockAnalysis placed the 50-day average slightly below the latest close after the July bounce. Nearby sources clustered around $36.6 to $37.1. |
| 200-day moving average | $41.04 | StockAnalysis placed the 200-day average above the latest close, so the intermediate-to-long-term trend is not yet repaired. |
| Momentum | Neutral to constructive short term | RSI near 57.5 is neither oversold nor overbought. Price above the 50-day average with a still-sub-200-day structure fits a bounce inside a larger repair. |
| Volume | 5.8 million latest volume, 4.9 million 20-day average | The July 10 advance traded above the recent average. Confirm live volume before treating any breakout as durable. |
| Volatility | High (beta about 2.12) | ONON can swing hard around earnings, FX headlines, tariff news, and athletic fashion rotations. Position size should assume wide ranges. |
| Invalidation | Close below $31.41 | A decisive close below the reported 52-week low would weaken the base-building and premium-growth repair thesis. |
ONON AI trading strategy
The ONON AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework for a premium growth consumer brand that is bouncing after a deep drawdown. It is not personalized advice. Any setup should be paired with position sizing, stop levels, updated filings, and live chart confirmation.
Wait for ONON to hold above the 50-day average, reclaim the roughly $41 200-day average on rising volume, and show follow-through toward the $45 to $52 zone. A stronger version requires multi-session acceptance above the 200-day average rather than a single spike.
A failed breakout or a close back below the 50-day average after a 200-day test should invalidate the momentum version of the setup.
If ONON retests the $31.41 to $37 support band without a fresh collapse in constant-currency growth or gross margin, compare price action with DTC mix, Americas and APAC trends, inventory quality, and guidance language.
Do not average down without a predefined maximum loss and a check that short interest, wholesale cancellations, or tariff costs are not accelerating.
Track constant-currency net sales, gross margin versus the at least 64.5% FY 2026 outlook, adjusted EBITDA margin, DTC share, cash conversion, Vietnam production risk, category expansion (including football comments), and co-CEO capital allocation signals.
Reduce confidence when price strength comes only from broad market beta or one-time FX effects while constant-currency growth and sell-through deteriorate.
Investment research summary
Customers pay On for premium running performance, CloudTec cushioning feel, design-led lifestyle footwear, and brand status across wholesale doors, owned stores, and digital DTC. The company is expanding beyond core running into outdoor, training, tennis, apparel, and potentially football.
On has a brand and product-design moat supported by athlete marketing, premium price architecture, rising DTC engagement, and scale in performance running. Network effects are limited and switching costs are low, so the moat can narrow quickly if product cycles miss or promotions rise.
The thesis can fail if fashion heat fades, Nike or HOKA reclaim share, Vietnam supply is disrupted, tariffs force price hikes that cut demand, FX keeps masking real growth, dual-class control leads to poor capital allocation, or the premium multiple collapses as growth decelerates.
Founders David Allemann and Caspar Coppetti returned as co-CEOs in March 2026 after Martin Hoffmann stepped down. The founder team retains Class B voting control. Recent open-market Class A purchases by founders are a positive alignment signal, but key-person and dual-class governance risk remain.
Global performance running and premium sneakers remain growth-advantaged versus basic athletic footwear, helped by health, training, and fashion crossover demand. The category is still competitive with Nike, Adidas, Deckers (HOKA), ASICS, New Balance, and many niche labels.
A roughly 41x trailing P/E and 3.3x sales leave limited margin of safety if growth cools. Forward P/E near 21x and net cash of about $0.60 billion improve the setup only if FY 2026 guidance for at least 23% constant-currency growth and high gross margins is delivered.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| ONON price | $38.54 close on July 10, 2026 | StockAnalysis ONON quote | July 12, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $12.76 billion, verified as $38.54 x 331.00 million shares with 0.03% deviation | financial_rigor.py market cap verification | July 12, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 331.00 million valuation shares; 296.87 million current Class A share class | StockAnalysis statistics and MarketWatch key data | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM revenue and net income | About $3.89 billion revenue and $312.05 million net income | StockAnalysis statistics, cross-checked with Simply Wall St | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM EPS and trailing P/E | $0.93 EPS and about 41.4x verified trailing P/E | financial_rigor.py valuation verification | July 12, 2026 |
| FY 2025 net sales (CHF) | CHF 3,014.0 million, up 30.0% reported and 35.6% constant currency | On Holding FY 2025 company results | July 12, 2026 |
| FY 2025 profitability | Gross profit margin 62.8%, adjusted EBITDA margin 18.8%, net income CHF 203.7 million | On Holding FY 2025 company results | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 net sales and margins | CHF 831.9 million sales (+14.5% reported, +26.4% CC), 64.2% gross margin, 21% adjusted EBITDA margin | On Holding Q1 2026 results | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 channel mix | Wholesale CHF 509.6 million; DTC CHF 322.3 million (38.7% of sales) | On Holding Q1 2026 results | July 12, 2026 |
| Cash and net cash | Company cash about CHF 1,020.4 million at March 31, 2026; StockAnalysis cash $1.27 billion, debt $675.58 million, net cash $596.54 million | On Holding Q1 2026 results and StockAnalysis statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Free cash flow | About $398.82 million TTM FCF, or $1.20 per share | StockAnalysis statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Valuation snapshot | Trailing P/E about 41.3x to 41.4x, forward P/E 21.42x, P/S 3.28x, P/B 5.79x, P/FCF about 32x, PEG 0.82 | StockAnalysis statistics and financial_rigor.py | July 12, 2026 |
| Ownership | About 25.96% insider ownership and 63.99% institutional ownership; dual-class Class B founder voting control | StockAnalysis statistics and company SEC/IR disclosures | July 12, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 52-week range $31.41 to $54.72, 50-day average $37.13, 200-day average $41.04, RSI 57.52, beta 2.12 | StockAnalysis statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| FY 2026 company outlook (after Q1) | At least 23% constant-currency net sales growth, gross margin at least 64.5%, adjusted EBITDA margin 19.5% to 20% | On Holding Q1 2026 results and guidance commentary | July 12, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus snapshot | Average price target $52.20 from 27 analysts, consensus Buy | StockAnalysis forecast data | July 12, 2026 |
This page is an informational research tool, not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Forecast scenarios use available data and assumptions that can be wrong. Review primary filings, confirm live price data, and consider professional advice before making an investment decision.
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