Okta, Inc. research snapshot
OKTA AI stock analysis as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff sees Okta as a profitable independent identity platform whose investment case now rests on free cash flow, AI-agent identity demand, and valuation after a sharp 2026 run. The stock closed at $141.93 on July 31, 2026, with a market capitalization of $24.67 billion, re-verified during this full refresh as $141.93 times 173.81 million shares with 0.00% deviation across StockAnalysis.com quote and statistics pages. Fiscal 2027 first-quarter revenue was $765 million, up 11% year over year, free cash flow was $271 million, and cRPO reached $2.499 billion. OKTA pulled back about 14% from its July 15 four-year high of $157.00 and, on July 30, agreed to acquire Permiso Security for an estimated $200 million to add identity threat detection and response. Analysts rate the stock Buy with an average target of $126.88, below the current price. This is scenario analysis for information only, not investment advice.
Current price
$141.93 at the July 31, 2026 close
Market cap
$24.67 billion, computed as $141.93 times 173.81 million shares outstanding
AI score
76 / 100
Rating
Profitable independent identity platform with stronger free cash flow, an AI-agent identity narrative, and a full-refresh valuation check after the July run to $157.00 and the Permiso Security acquisition
Trend status
Uptrend above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, in a pullback after the July 15 four-year high, with momentum neutral and below-consensus price targets
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Okta sells cloud identity and access management subscriptions that help workforce users, customers, applications, devices, and AI agents authenticate and gain authorized access securely. | High |
| Moat | Neutral positioning, integration breadth, embedded authentication workflows, developer adoption, and switching costs support the moat, but Microsoft and other platform vendors can bundle an acceptable alternative and limit pricing power. | Medium |
| Management | Todd McKinnon and the team have pushed product specialization, AI-agent identity, free cash flow discipline, a $1 billion repurchase authorization, and the Permiso Security acquisition to expand identity threat defense. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Fiscal 2027 Q1 revenue grew 11% to $765 million, RPO grew 16% to $4.719 billion, cRPO grew 12% to $2.499 billion, operating cash flow was $277 million, and free cash flow was $271 million. | High |
| Valuation | At $141.93, financial_rigor.py calculated about 37.1x the fiscal 2027 non-GAAP EPS guidance midpoint and 27.1x trailing free cash flow per share, with a 3.69% free cash flow yield and an average analyst target below the price. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | The July 31 close of $141.93 stayed above the 50-day moving average near $127.57 and the 200-day moving average near $93.99, but momentum is neutral after the pullback from the $157.00 July 15 high. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are cyber incidents, competition from Microsoft, CyberArk, Ping Identity, and platform vendors, slower net retention, AI identity commoditization, the Permiso integration, share dilution, and multiple compression. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | The evidence base is deep and current for reported results, market data, and valuation math, but forecasts require assumptions about growth, adoption, competition, and valuation multiples. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | OKTA is a better business than during its loss-making phase, but it is not a high-certainty bargain because the price already reflects strong execution expectations and trades above the analyst consensus target. | Medium |
OKTA AI stock forecast
The OKTA AI stock forecast uses the $141.93 July 31 close, a $3.83 fiscal 2027 non-GAAP EPS guidance midpoint, and a three-year earnings-multiple framework. The audited model produced a bearish area near $92, a base area near $164, and a bullish area near $221. These are scenario ranges, not price promises.
$210 to $235
More likely if AI-agent identity, Identity Governance, privileged access, and identity threat detection increase wallet share, revenue growth reaccelerates above guidance, free cash flow stays strong, and investors assign a premium multiple near 40x earnings. The exact model output was about $221.
$150 to $175
More likely if fiscal 2027 revenue lands near the $3.185 billion to $3.205 billion guide, EPS compounds near the low double digits, customer retention remains healthy, the Permiso integration closes cleanly, and the market accepts a 33x earnings multiple. The exact model output was about $164.
$85 to $100
More likely if growth fades toward low single digits, a security or service event harms trust, competitors bundle identity more aggressively, the Permiso deal distracts from the core, buybacks fail to offset dilution, or the multiple falls toward 22x earnings. The exact model output was about $92.
OKTA AI technical analysis
OKTA AI technical analysis is constructive but short-term corrective at the August 2, 2026 data cutoff. StockAnalysis.com reported a July 31 close of $141.93, a 50-day moving average near $127.57, a 200-day moving average near $93.99, RSI near 56.70, beta near 0.77, and 20-day average volume near 2,860,987 shares. The 52-week range was $62.66 to $157.00, with the four-year high reached on July 15, 2026.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $141.93 | July 31, 2026 close used for market-cap and valuation calculations. |
| Immediate support | $135 to $140 | The July 29 pullback low near $135 and the recent day-range low near $137.76 form the first support zone after the advance. |
| Pullback support | Near $127.57 | The reported 50-day moving average is the first meaningful support on a deeper pullback. |
| Trend support | Near $93.99 | The reported 200-day moving average is the clearer medium-term trend reference. |
| Major support | Near $62.66 | The 52-week low is a long-term reference that would require a fundamental review if approached. |
| Near resistance | $145 to $150 | The July 31 day range high was $144.33, and the area up to $150 is the first overhead test. |
| Major resistance | Near $157.00 | The July 15, 2026 four-year high is the key published overhead reference. |
| Moving averages | 50-day $127.57, 200-day $93.99 | Both figures come from StockAnalysis.com statistics and should be refreshed before a live setup. |
| Momentum | RSI 56.70, neutral | The RSI cooled from overbought levels after the July 15 high and is neither stretched nor oversold at the cutoff. |
| Volume | 20-day average 2,860,987 shares | Judge breakouts against volume, especially around the August 26 earnings report and the Permiso acquisition. |
| Volatility | Beta 0.77 | Reported beta is below the broad market, but earnings, cybersecurity events, and valuation changes can still move the shares sharply. |
| Invalidation | Close below $127.57, then $93.99 | A break of the 50-day average weakens the short-term uptrend; a break of the 200-day average challenges the medium-term trend. |
OKTA AI trading strategy
The OKTA AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It connects cRPO, subscription growth, free cash flow, AI-agent identity adoption, the Permiso integration, security reliability, valuation, and technical invalidation levels.
Watch for OKTA to hold the $135 to $140 zone and clear the $145 to $150 area on improving volume while the August 26 Q2 fiscal 2027 report confirms cRPO growth, subscription growth, free cash flow, and fiscal 2027 guidance.
A failed breakout followed by a close below the 50-day reference near $127.57 should reduce confidence, particularly if product demand or security commentary weakens.
If OKTA pulls back toward the $127.57 to $135 band without a reset in cRPO, retention, or free cash flow, compare the new price with EPS guidance, free cash flow per share, net cash, and identity-security peer valuations.
Do not assume every pullback is attractive if a cyber incident, larger competitive discounts, slower enterprise demand, the Permiso integration, or stock-based compensation changes the per-share economics.
Track cRPO, RPO, subscription revenue growth, dollar-based net retention, large-customer adoption of Identity Governance and AI-agent features, the Permiso integration, free cash flow margin, share count, buyback use, and material security events.
Position sizing should reflect the difference between a well-supported identity platform thesis and a guaranteed AI-security outcome.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Okta to establish, verify, govern, and secure access for workforce users, customers, devices, applications, and increasingly AI agents across cloud and on-premises environments.
Okta benefits from neutral identity positioning, many integrations, embedded authentication workflows, customer switching costs, and developer adoption. The moat can narrow when Microsoft or other vendors offer an acceptable bundled alternative.
The thesis fails if a security incident damages trust, customers consolidate identity into broader platforms, AI agents do not create incremental demand, the Permiso deal dilutes focus or capital, product specialization fails to lift retention, or profitability gains reverse.
Management has shifted toward disciplined growth, product specialization, AI-agent identity, capital returns, and identity threat defense through the Permiso acquisition. The lasting test is whether security reliability and product execution build trust while buybacks improve per-share value.
Identity sits at the center of zero-trust security and grows more important as organizations manage human, machine, and AI-agent access. The trend is favorable, though it brings intense competition and fast product cycles.
At $141.93, the market expects Okta to sustain healthy cash conversion and execute on AI-agent identity without a return to growth volatility. Margin of safety improves if the price falls while cRPO, free cash flow, and trust remain intact.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| OKTA quote and market cap | $141.93 close on July 31, 2026; $24.67 billion market cap; $22.49 billion enterprise value | StockAnalysis.com OKTA quote and market-cap pages | August 2, 2026 |
| Market cap verification | $24.67 billion calculated from $141.93 price and 173.81 million shares, verified by financial_rigor.py at 0.00% deviation | StockAnalysis.com statistics and financial_rigor.py | August 2, 2026 |
| Q1 fiscal 2027 operating data | $765 million revenue, $4.719 billion RPO, $2.499 billion cRPO, $277 million operating cash flow, $271 million free cash flow | Okta Q1 fiscal 2027 results and 10-Q | August 2, 2026 |
| Q1 fiscal 2027 profitability | GAAP operating income of $56 million, non-GAAP operating income of $191 million, GAAP net income of $74 million, and non-GAAP diluted EPS of $0.91 | Okta Q1 fiscal 2027 results | August 2, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | $2.589 billion cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments; $350 million current convertible notes before the June 2026 settlement; $12.53 net cash per share in TTM data | Okta Q1 fiscal 2027 10-Q and StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Fiscal 2026 revenue and net income cross-check | $2.919 billion revenue and $235 million GAAP net income for fiscal 2026, verified against company reporting and StockAnalysis.com | Okta fiscal 2026 results and StockAnalysis.com | August 2, 2026 |
| Fiscal 2027 guidance | $3.185 billion to $3.205 billion revenue, $3.79 to $3.87 non-GAAP diluted EPS, and $855 million to $885 million non-GAAP free cash flow | Okta Q1 fiscal 2027 guidance | August 2, 2026 |
| Capital allocation | Okta repurchased and retired 3,026,820 Class A shares for $241 million in fiscal 2027 Q1; $680 million remained under the $1 billion authorization at April 30, 2026 | Okta Q1 fiscal 2027 10-Q | August 2, 2026 |
| Permiso Security acquisition | Okta signed a definitive agreement to acquire Permiso Security to add identity threat detection and response, identity risk signals, behavioral analytics, and AI-agent protection; TechCrunch reported a purchase price near $200 million | TechCrunch and PYMNTS reporting | July 30, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy with an average target of $126.88 across 44 analysts, low $75, high $175, median $123; the average target is about 10.6% below the July 31 close | StockAnalysis.com OKTA forecast page | July 30, 2026 |
| Recent analyst target updates | Wells Fargo Hold $150 on July 27, Capital One upgrade to Buy with $171 on July 16, KeyBanc Buy $175 on July 10, Scotiabank upgrade to Buy with $165 on July 6 | StockAnalysis.com OKTA forecast page | July 30, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 50-day SMA $127.57, 200-day SMA $93.99, RSI 56.70, beta 0.77, 20-day average volume 2,860,987, 52-week range $62.66 to $157.00 | StockAnalysis.com OKTA statistics page | August 2, 2026 |
| Valuation math | About 37.1x the fiscal 2027 non-GAAP EPS guidance midpoint, 27.1x trailing free cash flow per share, 8.2x trailing revenue, and a 3.69% free cash flow yield | financial_rigor.py verification | August 2, 2026 |
This OKTA AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future performance. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of August 2, 2026 and can be wrong if growth, margins, security reliability, AI-agent identity adoption, the Permiso integration, valuation multiples, or market conditions change.
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