Owens Corning research snapshot
OC AI stock analysis as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff reads Owens Corning as a quality branded building-products franchise sitting inside a potential takeover story and a cyclical housing downturn at the same time. The stock closed at $138.90 on July 31, 2026, down from the takeover-spike area near $142 in early July, with a market capitalization near $11.19 billion, re-verified during this full refresh as $138.90 times 80.53 million shares outstanding with 0.04% deviation across StockAnalysis.com and the Q1 2026 balance sheet. The defining event is that Carlisle Companies made unsolicited offers to acquire Owens Corning at a significant premium, reported by The Wall Street Journal in early July 2026, with Owens Corning appearing unreceptive so far and Carlisle contemplating its next move; the stock jumped about 5% to $141.90 on the report and analysts including Evercore ISI raised targets to as high as $193. Fundamentals remain challenged: Q1 2026 net sales from continuing operations fell 10% to $2.265 billion with adjusted EBITDA margin down to 16% from 22%, adjusted diluted EPS fell 59% to $1.22, and free cash flow was a $387 million outflow, while the company kept its Q2 revenue guide near $2.6 billion to $2.7 billion with 20% to 22% adjusted EBITDA margin and reiterated a $2 billion cash return plan for 2025 and 2026. Analysts polled by S&P Global rate the stock Buy with an average target of $164.57, about 18.5% above the July 31 close, on FY2026 adjusted EPS consensus of $9.48, down about 21% from the FY2025 adjusted EPS of $12.05. A CFO transition was announced on July 29, 2026, with Jonathan Collins becoming CFO effective August 10 while Todd Fister assumes the role of President, and Q2 2026 results are scheduled for August 5, 2026, after this page cutoff. This page uses scenario analysis, not a certain price prediction, and it is informational research rather than investment advice.
Current price
$138.90
Market cap
$11.19 billion
AI score
68 / 100
Rating
Quality building-products franchise with a takeover bid, cyclical housing exposure, and near-term margin pressure
Trend status
Consolidating below the 5-day and 20-day moving averages after the July takeover-spike cooled
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Owens Corning is a branded building products company in roofing, insulation, and doors with TTM revenue near $9.84 billion, an integrated go-to-market push, and a focused portfolio after the glass reinforcements divestiture closed April 30, 2026, but Q1 2026 adjusted EBITDA margin compressed to 16% from 22%. | Medium-high |
| Moat | The moat comes from brand including PINK insulation, contractor and distributor relationships, manufacturing scale, product systems, and cost position more than pure network effects, which is durable but can narrow when volumes fall. | High |
| Management | Chair and CEO Brian Chambers is executing portfolio focus, the doors integration, cost actions, dividends, and a $2 billion 2025 to 2026 cash return plan; Todd Fister is moving from CFO and COO to President and Jonathan Collins becomes CFO on August 10, 2026. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue was $10.103 billion with about $962 million free cash flow and adjusted diluted EPS from continuing operations of $12.05, but Q1 2026 sales fell 10% to $2.265 billion, adjusted EPS fell 59% to $1.22, and free cash flow was a $387 million outflow, with FY2026 consensus adjusted EPS near $9.48. | High |
| Valuation | At $138.90, OC trades near 14.65x FY2026 consensus adjusted EPS of $9.48, about 13.5x TTM free cash flow, and about 3.07x book value using financial_rigor.py, which is not expensive for the franchise but assumes the consensus earnings path holds. | High for math, medium for forward value |
| Technical trend | OC closed at $138.90 on July 31, 2026, below its 5-day moving average near $140.13 and its 20-day moving average near $141.43 after the takeover spike cooled, but above its 50-day near $132.91, 100-day near $123.61, and 200-day near $121.20, with 14-day RSI near 50 and 14-day ADX near 20.6. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is medium-high because residential repair and new construction are weak, Q1 2026 margins compressed, Iran conflict cost inflation near $60 million is expected in Q2, doors margins are thin at 7%, leverage sits near $6.0 billion of total debt against $272 million of cash, and the takeover situation is unresolved. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High confidence for company filings, market-cap verification, segment sales, adjusted EPS, cash, debt, and major strategy events that cross-validated across StockAnalysis.com, SEC EDGAR XBRL, and the Q1 2026 release. Lower confidence for deal outcome, housing-cycle timing, and the 2026 full-year earnings path. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. The business quality supports a constructive view, but the price already prices in takeover optionality and consensus execution, and the cycle can still disappoint. | Medium |
OC AI stock forecast
The OC AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges around the $138.90 July 31, 2026 close. The bullish case needs a takeover to close at a premium or a housing recovery with adjusted EBITDA margins rebuilding toward the mid-20% range. The base case assumes Q2 lands near the $2.6 billion to $2.7 billion guide with 20% to 22% adjusted EBITDA margin and FY2026 adjusted EPS tracks toward the $9.48 consensus. The bearish case assumes a long housing downturn, no deal, doors margin weakness, and multiple compression.
$185 to $235
More likely if a Carlisle acquisition closes at a premium near or above the $159.91 52-week high, or if adjusted EPS compounds from the $9.48 FY2026 consensus base, adjusted EBITDA margins rebuild toward the mid-20% ambition, and investors assign a mid-teens earnings multiple.
$140 to $175
More likely if Q2 revenue lands near the $2.6 billion to $2.7 billion guide with 20% to 22% adjusted EBITDA margin, FY2026 adjusted EPS tracks toward the $9.48 consensus and the $10.32 high estimate, buybacks and the $2 billion cash return plan support per-share value, and valuation stays near 13x to 16x forward earnings.
$95 to $125
More likely if residential repair and new construction stay weak, doors margins remain depressed, Iran conflict and other input cost inflation keeps pressuring margins, no takeover closes, or the market assigns a lower earnings multiple to a deeper housing downturn.
OC AI technical analysis
OC AI technical analysis starts from the $138.90 July 31, 2026 close, the $136.57 to $139.52 day range, and the $97.53 to $159.91 52-week range reported around the August 3, 2026 cutoff. The stock sits below its 5-day and 20-day moving averages after the takeover spike cooled and above its 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, with 14-day RSI near 50 and 14-day ADX near 20.6 signaling a consolidating range rather than a strong trend. Because this static page does not fetch request-time chart data, live moving averages, RSI, volume, and support or resistance should be confirmed in a charting tool before use.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $138.90 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote for the July 31, 2026 close used as the primary price input. |
| 5-day moving average | $140.13 | Barchart reported the 5-day moving average near $140.13, slightly above the July 31 close, showing the takeover-spike momentum cooled. |
| 20-day moving average | $141.43 | Barchart reported the 20-day moving average near $141.43 on July 31, 2026, the first overhead area after the early July spike near $141.90. |
| Near support | $132.91 | The 50-day moving average sits near $132.91 on StockAnalysis.com and Barchart, a natural first pullback support zone above the longer averages. |
| Deeper support | $121.20 to $123.61 | The 100-day moving average near $123.61 and the 200-day near $121.20 form a longer-term support cluster that has guided the 2026 recovery. |
| Near resistance | $141.43 to $150 | The 20-day moving average near $141.43 and the takeover-spike area near $141.90 are the first overhead supply zone, with round-number resistance near $150 above. |
| Major resistance | $159.91 | The reported 52-week high. A sustained break would need a confirmed deal, better housing data, or stronger earnings execution. |
| Momentum | Neutral to soft short-term | 14-day RSI was near 49.96 on StockAnalysis.com and Barchart on July 31, 2026, roughly neutral, with 14-day ADX near 20.6 indicating a range-bound market rather than a strong directional move. |
| Volume | About 0.89 million average | StockAnalysis.com and Barchart both listed 20-day average volume near 888,000 shares on July 31, 2026, useful for checking whether any breakout comes with participation. |
| Volatility | Elevated near the deal and earnings window | Barchart reported 14-day historical volatility near 27.35% and 20-day near 31.59%, so position sizing should account for deal headlines and the August 5 earnings release. |
| Invalidation | Close below $132.91, then $121.20 | A decisive close below the 50-day moving average near $132.91 would weaken the medium-term uptrend. A close below the 200-day near $121.20 would break the longer-term recovery and likely require a housing or deal outcome to rebuild the base. |
OC AI trading strategy
The OC AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework for a cyclical branded building-products stock with an unresolved takeover bid. It is not personalized advice. Any setup should be paired with position sizing, updated filings, live chart confirmation, and a clear stop or thesis invalidation level.
Watch for OC to reclaim its 20-day moving average near $141.43 and the takeover-spike area near $141.90 with improving volume. Confirmation should include Q2 results on August 5 near the $2.6 billion to $2.7 billion revenue guide with 20% to 22% adjusted EBITDA margin and no cut to the cash return plan.
A failed reclaim of the 20-day average or a close back below the 50-day near $132.91 should invalidate the short-term trend setup.
If OC pulls back toward the $121 to $133 support band, compare the selloff with verified fundamentals: segment EBITDA margins, doors recovery, free cash flow after seasonal working capital, net leverage, the takeover status, and buyback pace.
Do not average down if weakness is tied to a guidance cut, doors re-impairment signals, rising net debt without cash conversion, a clear housing demand break, or a confirmed end to takeover interest.
Track residential repair activity, U.S. housing starts, storm carryover, segment EBITDA margins, adjusted EPS, free cash flow, capital additions near the $800 million outlook, interest expense, Iran conflict cost inflation, the $2 billion 2025 to 2026 shareholder return commitment, and any Carlisle or other strategic news.
Reduce confidence when price strength is driven only by takeover headlines and not matched by margin durability, cash conversion, or per-share value creation without a confirmed bid.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Owens Corning for roofing systems, insulation, and doors that make buildings more durable, energy efficient, and finished, mainly through professional and distribution channels in North America and Europe, after the glass reinforcements divestiture closed April 30, 2026.
The moat is brand, contractor familiarity, product systems, manufacturing scale, and cost position. PINK insulation and roofing leadership are durable, but private-label pressure, distributor power, input costs, and soft volumes can narrow pricing power in a housing downturn.
The thesis can fail if the takeover does not close and housing and repair demand stay weak, Q1-style margin compression persists, the Doors segment never earns an adequate return at a 7% EBITDA margin, leverage rises while free cash flow falls, or cost inflation from energy, asphalt, or tariffs outruns pricing.
Management is simplifying the portfolio around branded building products, completing the glass reinforcements sale, integrating doors, funding manufacturing modernization, growing the dividend, and returning cash through the $2 billion 2025 to 2026 commitment. A CFO transition was announced on July 29, 2026, with Jonathan Collins taking the CFO role on August 10 and Todd Fister moving to President.
Aging U.S. housing stock, energy-efficiency codes, re-roofing cycles, and storm replacement support long-run demand, while high mortgage rates, weak new construction, and pressured discretionary remodeling can delay recovery for multi-year stretches.
At about 14.65x FY2026 consensus adjusted EPS and near 13.5x TTM free cash flow, OC is not priced as an expensive growth stock, and takeover interest adds optionality. Margin of safety still depends on the deal outcome, cycle depth, doors cash returns, and whether margins can rebuild from the Q1 2026 16% level.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| OC price | $138.90 at the July 31, 2026 close | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $11.19 billion, computed as $138.90 x 80.53 million shares outstanding with 0.04% deviation | StockAnalysis.com quote and statistics, financial_rigor.py market cap verification | August 3, 2026 |
| Share count | 80.53 million shares outstanding on StockAnalysis.com, matching the 80.5 million outstanding shown in the Q1 2026 balance sheet | StockAnalysis.com and Owens Corning Q1 2026 balance sheet | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 continuing-ops results | Net sales $2.265 billion down 10%, adjusted EBITDA $369 million at a 16% margin, adjusted diluted EPS $1.22 down 59%, free cash outflow $387 million | Owens Corning Q1 2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 segment results | Roofing net sales $960 million with 24% EBITDA margin, Insulation $867 million with 19%, Doors $475 million with 7% | Owens Corning Q1 2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| Balance sheet (March 31, 2026) | Cash and cash equivalents $272 million, short-term debt $383 million, long-term debt current portion $438 million, long-term debt $4.686 billion, Owens Corning stockholders equity $3.644 billion | Owens Corning Q1 2026 earnings release and SEC EDGAR XBRL (cash $293 million including restricted cash, short-term borrowings $383 million, long-term debt noncurrent $4.686 billion, stockholders equity $3.644 billion) | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $10.103 billion, cross-validated with StockAnalysis.com and SEC EDGAR XBRL at 0.00% deviation | StockAnalysis.com financials and SEC EDGAR XBRL | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 free cash flow | $962 million on $1.786 billion operating cash flow less $824 million capex, matching the income statement and cash flow statement pages | StockAnalysis.com cash flow statement | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 adjusted diluted EPS | $12.05 from continuing operations, used as the FY2026 consensus base | StockAnalysis.com forecast financial forecast | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM financials (through March 31, 2026) | TTM revenue $9.838 billion down 5.08%, TTM net income a GAAP loss of $534 million, TTM operating cash flow $1.681 billion, TTM free cash flow $827 million | StockAnalysis.com financials | August 3, 2026 |
| Valuation check | Forward PE 13.56 on the statistics page, PB 3.07, PS 1.14, P/FCF 13.53, dividend yield 2.28% | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Valuation at $138.90 via financial_rigor.py | PE 14.65x on FY2026 consensus adjusted EPS of $9.48, PB 3.07x on about $45.27 book value per share, P/FCF 13.52x on about $10.27 FCF per share, dividend yield 2.28% on the $3.16 annualized dividend | financial_rigor.py verify-valuation | August 3, 2026 |
| 52-week range | $97.53 to $159.91 | StockAnalysis.com quote panel | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy with an average target of $164.57 across 16 analysts, low $125, high $193, median $168.5 | StockAnalysis.com forecast | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst rating mix, July 2026 | 9 Strong Buy, 2 Buy, 5 Hold, 0 Sell, 0 Strong Sell out of 16 analysts | StockAnalysis.com forecast recommendation trends | August 3, 2026 |
| Recent analyst target updates | Evercore ISI to $193 from $188 on July 23, Bank of America $168 on July 23, Wells Fargo to $165 from $150 on July 14, Barclays to $170 from $144 on July 14, RBC Capital to $172 from $148 on July 11, Goldman Sachs to $159 from $141, Deutsche Bank to $165 from $136 | StockAnalysis.com forecast | August 3, 2026 |
| Short interest | 3.50 million shares short, 4.34% of shares outstanding, down from 4.72 million in the prior month, 2.49 days to cover | StockAnalysis.com statistics short selling | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2026 and FY2027 consensus estimates | FY2026 revenue estimate $9.90B with adjusted EPS $9.48, FY2027 revenue $10.25B with adjusted EPS $11.78, 2026 adjusted EPS estimate range $8.46 to $10.32 | StockAnalysis.com forecast financial forecast | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 5-day SMA near $140.13, 20-day SMA near $141.43, 50-day SMA near $132.91, 100-day SMA near $123.61, 200-day SMA near $121.20, 14-day RSI near 49.96, 14-day ADX near 20.6, 14-day historical volatility near 27.35% | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com technical snapshots | August 3, 2026 |
| Carlisle takeover interest | The Wall Street Journal reported in early July 2026 that Carlisle Companies made more than one unsolicited offer to acquire Owens Corning at a significant premium, that Owens Corning appeared unreceptive so far, and that Carlisle was contemplating its next move; OC jumped about 5% to $141.90 on the report | The Wall Street Journal and StockAnalysis.com news feed | August 3, 2026 |
| CFO transition | Jonathan Collins named Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer effective August 10, 2026, succeeding Todd Fister, who assumes the role of President, announced July 29, 2026 | Owens Corning announcement via Business Wire | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 outlook | Revenue from continuing operations about $2.6 billion to $2.7 billion, enterprise adjusted EBITDA margin about 20% to 22%, Iran conflict cost inflation about $60 million in the quarter, earnings scheduled August 5, 2026 | Owens Corning Q1 2026 earnings release outlook section | August 3, 2026 |
This OC AI stock analysis page is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, tax advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available public data as of the August 3, 2026 cutoff and may be wrong if financial results, housing demand, storm activity, the takeover outcome, doors performance, input costs, tariffs, leverage, capital allocation, or market conditions change.
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