The Sherwin-Williams Company research snapshot
SHW AI stock analysis as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff reads The Sherwin-Williams Company as a high-quality paint and coatings franchise that is executing better than the demand backdrop, with the stock closing at $340.85 on July 31, 2026 at a market capitalization near $82.26 billion, verified as $340.85 times 241.33 million shares with 0.00% deviation. The Q2 2026 report, released July 28, 2026, delivered consolidated net sales up 7.5% to $6.79 billion, adjusted diluted EPS up 9.5% to $3.70, adjusted EBITDA up 10.5% to about $1.5 billion with a 21.5% margin, and free cash flow conversion of 86%, with sales exceeding guidance in all three segments. Management raised full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $11.80 to $12.20 and lifted sales guidance to mid to high single-digit growth, driven by share gains, new account wins, protective and marine momentum, and an 8% Paint Stores price increase effective September 1. Offsetting this is a demanding valuation of about 31.44x trailing EPS and 26.72x forward earnings, a net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio of 2.4x, raw material inflation that is expected to accelerate to high single digits in the second half, weak new residential demand, and a consensus price target of $389.60 that is only 14.3% above the current price. The page presents a scenario framework, not a certain price prediction, and is for information only.
Current price
$340.85
Market cap
$82.26 billion
AI score
71 / 100
Rating
High-quality coatings compounder, but the market already prices in continued share gains and margin strength
Trend status
Constructive: above the 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, with 14-day RSI near 55.6
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Sherwin-Williams is a global paint and coatings platform built on professional distribution, with TTM revenue near $24.41 billion, TTM net income near $2.69 billion, and strong 49-year dividend growth. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from brand trust, company-operated store density, contractor relationships, color matching, product breadth, scale purchasing, and the cost of switching a professional workflow. | High |
| Management | Heidi G. Petz is Chair, President, and CEO. The team is disciplined on pricing, cost control, store portfolio optimization, and capital allocation, and it walked away from an AkzoNobel pursuit rather than overpay. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Q2 2026 net sales rose 7.5% to $6.79 billion, adjusted EPS rose 9.5% to $3.70, adjusted EBITDA margin expanded 60 basis points to 21.5%, and 2026 adjusted EPS guidance was raised to $11.80 to $12.20. | High |
| Valuation | At $340.85, financial_rigor.py calculates about 31.44x trailing EPS, 21.34x book value, 25.61x trailing FCF, 3.37x sales, and a 0.94% dividend yield, which is a demanding starting point. | High |
| Technical trend | The stock is above the 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, with 14-day RSI near 55.60 and 14-day ADX near 18.56, after a roughly 7% five-day run following the Q2 report. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Main risks are muted housing and DIY demand, raw material inflation that is accelerating in the second half, an elevated valuation, $12 billion to $15 billion of debt on different bases, and price realization risk. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for disclosed facts, segment results, balance sheet math, and technical snapshots. Medium for the forecast because SHW valuation is sensitive to pricing power, raw material costs, and housing-cycle expectations. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. Sherwin-Williams is a durable franchise with improving momentum, but the current price leaves limited room for a demand or margin miss. | Medium |
SHW AI stock forecast
The SHW AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the July 31, 2026 close of $340.85 and the raised 2026 adjusted EPS guidance midpoint of $12.00. The three-scenario framework, run with exact decimal arithmetic, produced a bearish area near $222, a base area near $320, and a bullish area near $420 before dividends, using adjusted EPS growth of 1%, 5%, and 9% and exit multiples of 18x, 23x, and 27x over three years. These are scenarios, not price commitments.
$405 to $440
More likely if the September price increase realizes well, professional repaint and protective and marine demand stay strong, new residential turns, raw material costs moderate, and the market keeps assigning SHW a high-20s earnings multiple.
$305 to $335
More likely if net sales grow at a mid single-digit pace, adjusted EPS tracks the $11.80 to $12.20 guidance, margins hold near prior-year levels, and the stock trades around a low-to-mid-20s earnings multiple.
$210 to $235
More likely if raw material inflation outpaces pricing, gross margin compresses, housing and DIY demand stay weak, volume growth stalls, or investors reprice the stock toward a high-teens multiple.
SHW AI technical analysis
SHW AI technical analysis is constructive but valuation-sensitive as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff. The stock closed at $340.85 on July 31, 2026, above the 20-day moving average near $332.42, the 50-day near $323.26, the 100-day near $322.34, and the 200-day near $332.59, with 14-day RSI near 55.60 and 14-day ADX near 18.56. A 52-week high of $379.65 remains overhead as the main upside test.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $340.85 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote at the July 31, 2026 close; market cap math uses 241.33 million shares outstanding. |
| Near support | $332 to $333 | The 20-day and 200-day moving averages both sit near $332 to $333 as of July 31, 2026, forming the first support zone below price. |
| Next support | $322 to $324 | The 50-day moving average near $323.26 and the 100-day near $322.34 form a support cluster that matters if the stock loses the 200-day area. |
| Near resistance | $360 to $380 | The zone between round-number resistance near $360 and the 52-week high of $379.65 is the first real upside test. |
| Major resistance | $389 to $420 | The analyst average target of $389.60 and the high analyst target of $420 frame the larger resistance band overhead. |
| Momentum | RSI 55.60, ADX 18.56 | Barchart showed 14-day RSI near 55.60 and 14-day ADX near 18.56 on July 31, 2026, with +DI above -DI, so momentum is positive but not extreme. |
| Volume | About 2.06 million shares | The 20-day average volume is near 2.06 million shares on StockAnalysis.com and 2.10 million on Barchart, the liquidity baseline for judging breakouts. |
| Volatility | Beta 1.10, 14-day HV near 44.9% | Barchart reported 14-day historical volatility near 44.9% and a 14-day average true range near $10.75, so position sizing should account for swings around earnings and guidance. |
| Invalidation | Close below $333, then $323 | A close below the 20-day and 200-day area near $332 to $333 would weaken the trend. A close below the 50-day near $323 would shift focus to downside risk control. |
SHW AI trading strategy
The SHW AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework for a premium coatings stock. It is not personalized advice and should be paired with live chart data, position sizing, earnings dates, housing data, raw material cost trends, and clear invalidation levels.
Look for SHW to hold above the $332 to $333 support band, then retest $360 to $380 on improving volume, positive same-store sales commentary, and successful realization of the September price increase.
A close below $333, or a breakout attempt that fails while volume rises on down days, should invalidate the near-term trend setup.
If SHW pulls back toward the $322 to $324 moving average cluster without deterioration in pricing, raw material costs, or 2026 guidance, compare the selloff with the long-term franchise thesis before acting.
Do not treat brand quality as a substitute for risk control, because a premium multiple can compress quickly when housing, DIY demand, or margins disappoint.
Track Paint Stores same-store sales, PSG volume, protective and marine growth, Consumer Brands DIY demand, Performance Coatings orders, gross margin, raw material costs, the September price increase, Suvinil integration, debt reduction, buybacks, and full-year adjusted EPS guidance.
Reduce confidence if revenue growth depends mainly on price while volume weakens, raw material inflation outpaces pricing, or management cuts margin and EPS guidance.
Investment research summary
Sherwin-Williams helps professional contractors, industrial customers, retailers, and homeowners get reliable coatings, color systems, technical support, and product availability when job timing matters, through company-operated stores and global industrial channels.
The moat is built from brand trust, store density, contractor habits, color matching, scale purchasing, professional service, and a broad coatings portfolio spanning architectural, protective, marine, packaging, and industrial use cases.
The thesis fails if raw material inflation outpaces pricing, housing and DIY demand stay weak, contractor loyalty erodes, protective and marine growth stalls, debt limits flexibility, or the market stops paying a premium multiple.
Heidi Petz leads a mature franchise where the key tests are pricing discipline, cost control, store portfolio optimization, capital allocation, and the service culture professional painters rely on. The team raised 2026 guidance and walked away from an AkzoNobel bid it judged too expensive.
Sherwin-Williams sits inside long-running trends in residential repaint, commercial maintenance, protective and marine coatings, infrastructure renewal, and global industrial finishes, with protective and marine benefiting from data centers, semiconductor infrastructure, and manufacturing onshoring.
The current price assumes continued execution, share gains, and margin strength. Margin of safety improves if the stock pulls back toward trend support while same-store sales, gross margin, and EPS guidance remain intact.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| SHW price | $340.85 at the July 31, 2026 close | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote | July 31, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $82.26 billion, verified as $340.85 x 241.33 million shares with 0.00% deviation | financial_rigor.py market cap verification | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 consolidated results | Net sales $6.789 billion up 7.5%, adjusted diluted EPS $3.70 up 9.5%, GAAP diluted EPS $3.43 up 14.3%, net income $843.6 million, EBITDA $1.43 billion up 13.8% | Sherwin-Williams Q2 2026 earnings release | July 28, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 adjusted EBITDA and cash flow | Adjusted EBITDA about $1.5 billion up 10.5% with 21.5% margin, net operating cash $1.35 billion up 21%, free cash flow $1.24 billion at 86% conversion | Sherwin-Williams Q2 2026 earnings call | July 28, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 segment sales | Paint Stores Group $3.890 billion up 5.1% with same-store sales up 4.2%, Consumer Brands $983.5 million up 21.5%, Performance Coatings $1.914 billion up 6.3% | Sherwin-Williams Q2 2026 earnings release | July 28, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 segment margins | PSG reported margin 24.6%, CBG adjusted margin 24.5% up 210 basis points, PCG adjusted margin 17.3% up 50 basis points with 26.4% incremental margin | Sherwin-Williams Q2 2026 earnings release and call | July 28, 2026 |
| H1 2026 results | Net sales $12.456 billion up 7.2%, adjusted diluted EPS $6.05, GAAP diluted EPS $5.58, net income $1.378 billion, about $2.23 billion returned to shareholders | Sherwin-Williams Q2 2026 earnings release | July 28, 2026 |
| 2026 full-year guidance | Sales growth raised to mid to high single digit, adjusted EPS $11.80 to $12.20, GAAP EPS $10.92 to $11.32, 8% PSG price increase effective September 1 | Sherwin-Williams Q2 2026 earnings call | July 28, 2026 |
| 2026 cost outlook | Raw material basket inflation up high single digit in the second half, full year mid single digit, consolidated price mix expected to rise to mid single digit, gross margin held near prior-year level at guidance midpoint | Sherwin-Williams Q2 2026 earnings call | July 28, 2026 |
| Store portfolio and growth plans | 45 new Paint Stores opened year to date, 57 closed, on pace to open 80 to 100 net new stores next year, protective and marine up mid-teens for the eighth straight quarter of high single-digit plus growth | Sherwin-Williams Q2 2026 earnings call | July 28, 2026 |
| Capital allocation | Returned $1.46 billion to shareholders in Q2 2026 through dividends and share repurchases, accelerated buybacks during volatility, walked away from the AkzoNobel pursuit after two bids judged not to warrant more engagement | Sherwin-Williams Q2 2026 earnings call | July 28, 2026 |
| Balance sheet at June 30, 2026 | Cash $293.5 million, short-term borrowings $2.246 billion, current portion of long-term debt $1.498 billion, long-term debt $8.327 billion, debt components summing to about $12.07 billion excluding operating leases | Sherwin-Williams Q2 2026 earnings release and Form 10-Q | July 28, 2026 |
| Leverage ratio | Net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio of 2.4x at June 30, 2026, down from prior levels | Sherwin-Williams Q2 2026 earnings call | July 28, 2026 |
| TTM income statement | Revenue $24.41 billion up 5.8%, gross profit $11.96 billion, operating income $3.98 billion, net income $2.69 billion, EPS $10.84 | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Valuation check | 31.44x trailing EPS, 26.72x forward EPS, 3.37x sales, 21.34x book value, 25.61x trailing FCF, 0.94% dividend yield | financial_rigor.py valuation verification | August 2, 2026 |
| Enterprise valuation | Enterprise value $97.00 billion, EV/EBITDA 20.48, EV/FCF 30.19, EV/sales 3.97 | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Dividend | Annual dividend $3.20 per share, 0.94% yield, 49 years of dividend growth, payout ratio 29.52%, ex-dividend date August 21, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com statistics and Sherwin-Williams dividend release | August 2, 2026 |
| Share and float data | 241.33 million shares outstanding, shares down 1.78% year over year, insiders 0.34%, institutions 83.54%, float 224.67 million shares | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Short interest | 6.78 million shares short, 2.81% of shares outstanding, 3.02% of float, 2.49 days to cover, down from 9.08 million the prior month | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy with an average target of $389.60 across 24 analysts, low $340, high $420, median $392.50 | StockAnalysis.com forecast | July 30, 2026 |
| Analyst rating mix, July 2026 | 10 Strong Buy, 3 Buy, 11 Hold, 0 Sell, 0 Strong Sell out of 24 analysts | StockAnalysis.com forecast recommendation trends | July 30, 2026 |
| Recent analyst target updates | Goldman Sachs $415 to $420, RBC $405 to $420, Berenberg $380 to $400, Citi $380 to $415, BMO $400 to $405, Morgan Stanley $385 to $395, UBS $365 to $390, JPMorgan $365 to $380, BofA $383 to $380, Wells Fargo $350 to $360 | StockAnalysis.com forecast latest forecasts and TheFly via TipRanks | July 30, 2026 |
| 2026 and 2027 consensus estimates | FY2026 revenue estimate $25.11 billion with adjusted EPS $12.06, FY2027 revenue $26.20 billion with adjusted EPS $13.57 | StockAnalysis.com forecast financial forecast | July 30, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 5-day SMA $342.22, 20-day SMA $332.42, 50-day SMA $323.26, 100-day SMA $322.34, 200-day SMA $332.59, 14-day RSI 55.60, 14-day ADX 18.56, 14-day historical volatility near 44.9% | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com technical snapshots | July 31, 2026 |
| Balance sheet cross-check | Total assets $26.951 billion, total equity $3.855 billion, book value per share $15.97 per StockAnalysis statistics | StockAnalysis.com balance sheet and statistics | August 2, 2026 |
This SHW AI stock analysis page is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future returns. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available filings, quote snapshots, and third-party data as of the stated cutoff date. They may be wrong, incomplete, or outdated after new earnings, housing data, raw material cost changes, market moves, or macro conditions.
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