Bullish case
$460 to $500
More likely if professional repaint remains resilient, new residential demand improves, Suvinil integration adds growth, raw material costs stay manageable, and the market keeps assigning SHW a mid-30s earnings multiple.
The Sherwin-Williams Company research snapshot
SHW AI Stock Analysis
SHW AI stock analysis currently reads The Sherwin-Williams Company as a high-quality paint and coatings franchise with strong professional contractor distribution, durable brands, pricing power, and improving 2026 sales momentum after a soft 2025 demand backdrop. At the July 8, 2026 data cutoff, SHW traded near $342.26 with a market capitalization near $83.93 billion. The business quality score is high, but the stock trades at a premium multiple, so the SHW AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges rather than a certain price prediction. This page is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$342.26
Market cap
$83.93 billion
AI score
72 / 100
Rating
High-quality coatings franchise, but valuation already prices in margin strength and a housing demand recovery
Trend status
Above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, with RSI positive but not extreme
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 8, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
Research quality check
- information Richness
- A-level information richness. Sherwin-Williams has a long public history, audited annual reports, quarterly releases, segment reporting, investor presentations, SEC filings, analyst coverage, and third-party quote and valuation datasets.
- bias Check
- The main AI bias risk is over-weighting Sherwin-Williams brand power, contractor store density, and pricing history while under-weighting housing turnover, DIY weakness, raw material inflation, debt from acquisitions, and the premium valuation already embedded in the stock.
- ai Confidence
- High for current price, market cap math, 2025 revenue, 2025 net income, Q1 2026 results, cash, shares, and moving averages. Medium for forward returns because repaint demand, housing activity, input costs, and valuation multiples can change quickly.
- investment Certainty
- Medium. The business is easier to study than many materials companies because disclosures are deep and the model is stable, but investment certainty is lower than data confidence because the stock needs continued pricing power, volume recovery, and margin protection.
Quick verdict table
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Sherwin-Williams sells paint, coatings, stains, and related products through more than 5,400 company-operated stores and global industrial channels. | High |
| Moat | Moat comes from brand trust, contractor relationships, store density, color matching, product breadth, scale purchasing, and the cost of switching a professional workflow. | High |
| Management | Heidi G. Petz is Chair, President, and CEO, with current priorities centered on pricing discipline, Suvinil integration, restructuring, long-term growth investment, and shareholder returns. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Q1 2026 net sales rose 6.8% to $5.67 billion, diluted EPS rose 7.5% to $2.15, and 2025 net sales rose 2.1% to $23.57 billion. | High |
| Valuation | At $342.26, financial_rigor.py calculates about 32.85x TTM EPS, 18.94x book value, 32.29x FCF, 3.51x sales, and a 0.93% dividend yield. | High |
| Technical trend | The stock is above the 50-day average near $317.74 and 200-day average near $333.52, with RSI near 61.36 and 20-day average volume near 2.56 million shares. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Main risks are weak housing turnover, soft DIY demand, raw material inflation, slower industrial coatings demand, debt, acquisition integration, and multiple compression. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for disclosed historical facts and math. Medium for the forecast because SHW valuation is sensitive to margin durability and housing-cycle expectations. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. Sherwin-Williams is a durable franchise, but the current price gives less margin of safety if growth or pricing power disappoints. | Medium |
SHW AI stock forecast
SHW AI Stock Forecast Scenarios
The SHW AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $342.26 quote. A three-year EPS framework using TTM EPS of $10.42 produced a bullish value near $485.80, a base value near $373.90, and a bearish value near $235.40. The wide range reflects the importance of volume recovery, pricing, raw material costs, and the earnings multiple investors assign to a premium coatings compounder.
Base case
$360 to $390
More likely if net sales grow at a low to mid-single-digit pace, adjusted EPS stays near management guidance, margins hold, and the stock trades around a low-30s earnings multiple.
Bearish case
$225 to $250
More likely if housing turnover stays weak, DIY demand remains soft, industrial demand slows, input costs pressure margins, or investors reprice the stock closer to a market multiple.
SHW AI technical analysis
SHW AI Technical Analysis
SHW AI technical analysis is constructive but valuation-sensitive as of the July 8, 2026 data cutoff. StockAnalysis showed SHW above the 50-day moving average near $317.74 and the 200-day moving average near $333.52, with RSI near 61.36 and average 20-day volume near 2.56 million shares.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $342.26 | July 7, 2026 closing quote used for this static page and the market cap verification. |
| Near support | $333 to $334 | The 200-day moving average near $333.52 is the first trend support area after the recent rebound. |
| Secondary support | $317 to $318 | The 50-day moving average near $317.74 is the next support zone if the stock loses the 200-day area. |
| Near resistance | $360 to $376 | This zone is near the analyst average target and below the 52-week high area, so it is a reasonable first upside test. |
| Major resistance | $379 to $420 | The 52-week high near $379.65 and the high end of analyst targets near $420 frame the larger resistance band. |
| Momentum | RSI 61.36 | RSI is positive but below a common overbought threshold, which supports a constructive but not euphoric setup. |
| Volume | About 2.56 million shares | The 20-day average volume is the liquidity baseline for judging whether breakouts or breakdowns have sponsorship. |
| Volatility | Beta 1.10 | SHW has slightly above-market beta, and housing, raw material, and earnings guidance news can add company-specific volatility. |
| Invalidation | Close below $333, then $318 | A close below the 200-day average would weaken the current trend. A close below the 50-day average would shift focus to downside risk control. |
SHW AI trading strategy
SHW AI Trading Strategy Framework
The SHW AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework for a premium coatings and paint stock. It is not personalized advice and should be paired with live chart data, position sizing, earnings dates, housing data, raw material cost trends, and clear invalidation levels.
Trend-following setup
Look for SHW to hold above the $333 to $334 support band, then retest $360 to $376 on improving volume, stable gross margin commentary, and constructive Paint Stores Group demand.
A close below $333, or a breakout that fails while volume rises on down days, should invalidate the near-term trend setup.
Mean-reversion setup
If SHW pulls back toward the 50-day average near $317.74 without a deterioration in pricing, raw material costs, or 2026 guidance, compare the selloff with the long-term franchise thesis.
Do not treat brand quality as a substitute for risk control because a premium multiple can compress quickly when housing or margins disappoint.
Fundamental monitor
Track Paint Stores same-store sales, Consumer Brands demand, Performance Coatings orders, gross margin, raw material costs, Suvinil integration, debt reduction, buybacks, and full-year adjusted EPS guidance.
Reduce confidence if revenue growth depends mainly on price while volume weakens, debt remains elevated, or management cuts margin and EPS guidance.
Investment research summary
Four-master Research Compression
Business essence
Sherwin-Williams helps professional contractors, industrial customers, retailers, and homeowners get reliable coatings, color systems, technical support, and product availability when job timing matters.
Moat
The moat is built from brand trust, store density, contractor habits, color matching, scale purchasing, professional service, and a broad coatings portfolio that spans architectural and industrial use cases.
Munger risk inversion
The thesis fails if housing turnover stays weak, raw materials inflate faster than price, contractor loyalty erodes, industrial coatings orders slow, debt limits flexibility, or the market stops paying a premium multiple.
Management
Heidi Petz leads a mature franchise where the key test is disciplined pricing, cost control, Suvinil integration, capital allocation, and maintaining the service culture that professional painters rely on.
Industry trend
Sherwin-Williams sits inside long-running trends in residential repaint, commercial maintenance, protective coatings, infrastructure renewal, and global industrial finishes, but near-term demand still follows housing and industrial cycles.
Valuation and margin of safety
The current price assumes high-quality execution and continued margin strength. Margin of safety improves if the stock pulls back toward trend support while same-store sales, gross margin, and EPS guidance remain intact.
Source-backed data
SHW Data Table
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| SHW price | $342.26 closing quote on July 7, 2026 | StockAnalysis quote snapshot | July 8, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $83.93 billion, verified as $342.26 x 245.21 million shares | financial_rigor.py market cap verification | July 8, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 245.21 million shares outstanding | StockAnalysis statistics | July 8, 2026 |
| 2025 net sales | $23.574 billion, cross-validated against Sherwin-Williams annual report, StockAnalysis, and Macrotrends | Sherwin-Williams 2025 annual report | July 8, 2026 |
| 2025 net income | $2.569 billion, cross-validated against Sherwin-Williams annual report, StockAnalysis, and Macrotrends | Sherwin-Williams 2025 annual report | July 8, 2026 |
| 2025 segment sales | Paint Stores $13.606 billion, Consumer Brands $3.166 billion, Performance Coatings $6.795 billion | Sherwin-Williams 2025 annual report | July 8, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 net sales | $5.667 billion, up 6.8% year over year | Sherwin-Williams Q1 2026 financial results | July 8, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 diluted EPS | $2.15 GAAP diluted EPS and $2.35 adjusted diluted EPS | Sherwin-Williams Q1 2026 financial results | July 8, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | $216.9 million cash; $11.70 billion company debt excluding operating leases; StockAnalysis total debt is $14.60 billion on a wider debt basis | Sherwin-Williams Q1 2026 release and StockAnalysis statistics | July 8, 2026 |
| Technical indicators | 50-day moving average $317.74, 200-day moving average $333.52, RSI 61.36, beta 1.10 | StockAnalysis statistics | July 8, 2026 |
| Analyst target range | 24 analysts: average target $375.95, low $330, high $420, consensus Buy | StockAnalysis forecast | July 8, 2026 |
Frequently Asked Questions
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This SHW AI stock analysis page is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future returns. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available data as of July 8, 2026 and can be wrong if fundamentals, valuation, technical conditions, or market sentiment change.