National Grid plc research snapshot
NGG AI stock analysis currently views National Grid plc as a regulated electricity and gas network owner whose value rests on allowed returns, asset-base growth, and reliable system operation in the UK and northeastern United States. At the August 2, 2026 data cutoff, the latest close used here was $79.97 and verified market capitalization was about $79.71 billion; the stock sits below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages after a pullback from the mid-$80s. Management has set out a GBP 70 billion five-year investment plan targeting about 10% annual asset growth and 8% to 10% underlying earnings growth, but the business also needs substantial funding and remains exposed to regulation, interest rates, construction execution, currency, and affordability politics. This NGG AI stock analysis is informational research, not investment advice.
Current price
$79.97
Market cap
$79.71 billion verified market capitalization
AI score
70 / 100
Rating
Regulated grid owner with durable demand, a large investment pipeline, and material leverage, funding, and regulatory risk
Trend status
Below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages after a pullback from the mid-$80s, holding just above a double-tested support near $78.76
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | National Grid is paid to transmit and distribute electricity and gas through regulated networks in the UK and the northeastern United States, with a large National Grid Ventures interconnector and LNG portfolio. Essential-service demand and regulated asset bases support visibility, although returns are set by regulators rather than freely priced. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from licensed network monopolies, rights of way, embedded long-lived infrastructure, engineering and regulatory capability, and long-standing reliability records. It is strong, but regulated returns and political oversight limit pricing freedom. | High |
| Management | CEO Zoe Yujnovich, appointed in 2025, and CFO Andy Agg have refreshed strategy around a GBP 70 billion investment plan targeting 10% annual asset growth and 8% to 10% underlying EPS growth. Delivery, funding discipline, regulatory outcomes, and per-share returns remain the key tests. | Medium |
| Financial trend | FY2026 continuing revenue was GBP 17.687 billion and reported total earnings were GBP 3.241 billion. Operating profit rose to GBP 5.431 billion, capital investment reached about GBP 11.6 billion, and free cash flow stayed negative because the group is investing heavily. Net debt rose to about GBP 44.2 billion at constant currency. | High |
| Valuation | At $79.97, verified valuation math gives about 18.60x earnings, 1.53x book value, a 4.01% dividend yield, and negative free-cash-flow yield. The three-year scenario model gives roughly $54.8 bear, $89.6 base, and $114.5 bull values. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | The latest technical snapshot placed NGG below both its 50-day average of $82.33 and its 200-day average of $82.63, with RSI at 42.17. Price sits just above a double-tested support near $78.76, so the setup is defensive rather than a confirmed upside trend. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is medium-high because National Grid carries large net debt, issued about GBP 4.2 billion of debt during the year, and must finance a major capital program while facing regulatory, construction, interest-rate, inflation, foreign-exchange, weather, and affordability risks. | High |
| AI confidence | Reported financial data and reproducible valuation arithmetic are well supported. Forecast ranges, technical timing, and scenario outputs have lower certainty. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. The regulated-network franchise is durable and the five-year plan is unusually visible, but investor returns depend on how much of the capital program converts into allowed returns after funding costs, dilution, and regulatory settlements. | Medium |
NGG AI stock forecast
The NGG AI stock forecast uses a three-year scenario framework around the $79.97 cutoff price and about $4.30 ADS-equivalent reported earnings per share. The financial-rigor model produced a bullish value near $114.5, a base value near $89.6, and a bearish value near $54.8. These are scenario outputs, not price promises.
$108 to $120
More likely if the GBP 70 billion investment program converts into allowed returns at scale, UK RIIO-T3 and ED3 and US rate cases stay constructive, asset growth near 10% drives earnings compounding near 10%, funding costs stay contained, the GBP to USD rate does not worsen, and the market pays about 20x reported earnings.
$84 to $95
More likely if regulated asset growth of about 10% per year converts to underlying EPS growth of 8% to 10%, dividend growth stays funded, net debt and credit metrics stay within guidance, the market values NGG near 17x earnings, and the analyst consensus target of about $90.89 proves directionally right.
$50 to $60
More likely if rates rise sharply, regulators limit recovery or cut allowed returns, construction or supply-chain costs escalate, customer affordability triggers tougher settlements, equity or hybrid issuance dilutes holders, or NGG loses the $78.70 area with broader utility weakness and currency moves against the ADR.
NGG AI technical analysis
NGG AI technical analysis uses the July 31, 2026 close and StockAnalysis technical statistics checked at the August 2, 2026 cutoff. Price was $79.97, below the 50-day moving average of $82.33 and the 200-day average of $82.63. RSI was 42.17, a mildly weak reading that gives no oversold bounce confirmation.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $79.97 | Latest NGG closing price used for this page, dated July 31, 2026. |
| Near support | $78.75 to $79.60 | This band contains the double-tested swing low near $78.76 on June 18 and July 29 plus recent lows around $79.53 to $79.58. |
| Structural support | Below $78.75 toward $75.00 | A sustained break of the double-tested low would weaken the medium-term base and open a path toward the $75 area and, further below, the 52-week low of $67.52. |
| 50-day moving average | $82.33 | Price was below this average in the August 2, 2026 technical snapshot, so a sustained reclaim would improve near-term momentum. |
| 200-day moving average | $82.63 | Price fell below this average, so longer-term trend support has been lost until price reclaims it. |
| Near resistance | $80.50 to $81.50 | A first test of this zone would follow any bounce off support; it sits near the July 30 close of $80.39 and recent highs around $80.69. |
| Resistance cluster | $82.30 to $82.65 | The 50-day and 200-day moving averages now sit just above price and, together with the July 23 to 24 consolidation, form the first significant supply zone on a recovery. |
| Stronger resistance | $84.00 to $85.00 | The July 17 high of $85.02 and the late-May supply around $84 to $86 define the next major hurdle. |
| 52-week range | $67.52 to $94.64 | The latest market snapshot placed NGG in the lower third of its 52-week range, so rallies face overhead supply from earlier consolidation. |
| Momentum | RSI 42.17 | RSI is below 50, confirming a weak-to-neutral momentum state rather than oversold or strongly bearish. |
| Volume | 20-day average volume 772,311 ADS | A bounce above resistance carries more weight if volume is above this recent average and is supported by stable rates and constructive regulatory news. |
| Volatility | Five-year beta 0.60 | Historical beta is below the broad market, but rate moves, regulatory events, currency changes, and project news can still move the ADR sharply. |
| Invalidation | Sustained close below $78.70 | A decisive loss of the double-tested support would invalidate the current range and require a fresh assessment of price, rates, and fundamentals. |
NGG AI trading strategy
The NGG AI trading strategy is a rules-based monitoring framework for a regulated utility ADR, not personalized advice. Use live prices, Treasury and gilt yields, GBP and USD exchange rates, regulatory news, earnings releases, position sizing, and a predefined invalidation level before acting.
Watch for NGG to hold the $78.75 to $79.60 support band and then reclaim the $82.30 to $82.65 moving-average cluster on volume above its recent average. A stronger setup would also include stable or falling long-term yields and no adverse regulatory or funding update.
A failed reclaim followed by a sustained close below $78.70 weakens the trend premise and calls for a predefined exit or reassessment rule.
If NGG approaches the $78.75 area, compare the dividend yield, allowed-return outlook, capital-spend funding plan, net-debt trend, and currency effect before assuming that support will hold.
Do not average down without a maximum loss rule because rate shocks, regulatory changes, equity issuance, or a GBP to USD move can reset a utility valuation quickly.
Track regulated asset growth of about 10% per year, RIIO-T3 and ED3 and US rate-case decisions, delivery of the GBP 70 billion plan, interest coverage, net debt, dividend coverage, data-center and large-load connections, and GBP to USD exchange rates.
Reduce confidence if funding needs rise faster than earnings, regulator-allowed returns fall, construction milestones slip, or balance-sheet metrics deteriorate without a credible remedy.
Investment research summary
National Grid is paid to operate electricity transmission and distribution networks in the UK and electricity and gas networks in New York and New England, plus one of the largest interconnector portfolios in the world. Customers pay because reliable grid access is essential and regulated networks provide the physical connection between generation and end users.
The core moat is a regulated monopoly over scarce, long-lived grid infrastructure. Licenses, rights of way, embedded network assets, engineering expertise, reliability records, and regulatory relationships are hard to reproduce, though the regulator ultimately controls much of the return.
The thesis fails if the GBP 70 billion program earns inadequate returns, debt and interest costs outrun regulated earnings, regulators prioritize affordability over investor returns, projects are delayed, storm or reliability costs rise, or adverse GBP to USD moves reduce ADR returns. The July 1 Joulent investment adds merchant-style project risk to the otherwise regulated mix.
Management quality shows up in capital allocation, engineering delivery, regulatory negotiation, reliability, safety, funding discipline, and per-share value creation. CEO Zoe Yujnovich has set an 8% to 10% underlying EPS growth target; the test is whether record capital investment converts into funded regulated asset growth rather than simply larger gross assets and debt.
Electrification, renewable interconnection, aging-grid replacement, energy security, reshoring, electric vehicles, heat pumps, and AI and data-center demand can keep network investment elevated for years. National Grid plans to connect about 35 GW of new generation and 19 GW of new demand in the UK over five years, and US peak demand is projected to rise by more than 15% by 2029.
At about 18.60x reported earnings and 1.53x book value, NGG is not priced as a distressed utility, and the 4.01% dividend yield cushions downside only if it stays funded. Margin of safety improves if the stock holds the $78.75 area while allowed returns, funding, capital delivery, dividend coverage, and credit metrics remain intact.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| NGG price | $79.97 closing price on July 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis price snapshot | August 2, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $79.71 billion verified as $79.97 x 996 million ADS-equivalent shares | financial_rigor.py market-cap verification | August 2, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | About 996 million ADS-equivalent shares, derived from 4.98 billion ordinary shares and five ordinary shares per ADS; shares rose 5.12% year over year | StockAnalysis statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2026 revenue | GBP 17.687 billion for the year ended March 31, 2026, down 3.76% from GBP 18.378 billion | StockAnalysis financials | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2026 total earnings | GBP 3.241 billion, up 11.68% from GBP 2.902 billion | StockAnalysis financials | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2026 operating profit | GBP 5.431 billion from continuing operations, up from GBP 4.934 billion | StockAnalysis financials | August 2, 2026 |
| Cash and financial investments | GBP 2.828 billion at March 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis financials | August 2, 2026 |
| Net debt | About GBP 44.2 billion at constant currency as of March 31, 2026, up GBP 2.8 billion | National Grid H2 2026 results call | August 2, 2026 |
| Capital investment | About GBP 11.6 billion in FY2026, up more than 20% | National Grid H2 2026 results call | August 2, 2026 |
| Valuation math | 18.60x PE, 1.53x PB, negative 3.65% FCF yield, and 4.01% dividend yield from financial_rigor.py | financial_rigor.py valuation verification | August 2, 2026 |
| Three-year scenario model | Bear $54.8, base $89.6, bull $114.5 using $4.30 reported EPS, 2% to 10% growth, and 12x to 20x terminal PE | financial_rigor.py three-scenario model | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy rating from 5 analysts with a 12-month price target of $90.89 | StockAnalysis statistics and forecast | August 2, 2026 |
| Technical trend | $82.33 50-day moving average, $82.63 200-day moving average, RSI 42.17, and 20-day average volume 772,311 ADS | StockAnalysis statistics | August 2, 2026 |
This NGG page is an informational research tool, not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Forecast ranges are scenario outputs based on available data and assumptions, may be wrong, and can change without notice. Verify primary filings, current prices, regulatory decisions, tax treatment, and your own risk limits before making an investment decision.
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