Newmont Corporation research snapshot
NEM AI stock analysis reads Newmont Corporation as the world-scale gold miner that keeps converting firm gold prices into record cash flow, but the stock is also in a sharp correction as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff. NEM closed at $93.71 on July 31, 2026 at a market capitalization near $98.74 billion, roughly 30% below its 52-week high of $134.88, with an AI score of 69 out of 100. The July 23, 2026 Q2 report delivered $6.12 billion of revenue, adjusted net income of $2.10 per share, record second quarter free cash flow of $2.2 billion, $3.4 billion of net cash, and $1.9 billion returned to shareholders since the prior call, while management reaffirmed 2026 guidance of about 5.3 million attributable gold ounces at $1,680 per ounce AISC. The offset is that gold prices corrected sharply during the second quarter, oil near $100 per barrel is raising costs, the stock trades below its 20-day, 50-day, 100-day and 200-day moving averages, and technical momentum reads neutral. The NEM AI stock forecast uses scenarios, not a certain price prediction, and this page is informational research, not investment advice.
Current price
$93.71
Market cap
$98.74 billion market cap
AI score
69 / 100
Rating
Cash-rich gold leader priced for a softer gold cycle
Trend status
Neutral technical setup below key moving averages despite record cash flow
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Newmont sells gold plus by-product copper, silver, lead, and zinc from a global portfolio. Demand for gold is deep, but earnings follow realized prices and mine costs, with TTM revenue near $25.77 billion. | High |
| Moat | The moat is asset-based: scale, long-life reserves, block cave and processing expertise, favorable jurisdiction mix, a net cash balance, and scarce access to large new gold projects. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO Natascha Viljoen and new CFO Brian Tabolt ran a capital allocation framework that returned $1.9 billion in the quarter, cut the share count roughly 9% since February 2024, and kept 2026 guidance on track through a gold correction and the Cadia seismic event. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | TTM revenue is $25.77 billion with $9.73 billion of free cash flow; Q2 2026 produced record second quarter free cash flow of $2.2 billion and ended with $3.4 billion of net cash at June 30, 2026. | High |
| Valuation | At $93.71, NEM trades near 11.86x trailing EPS, 9.17x forward earnings, 10.15x free cash flow, 2.82x book value, and a 1.11% dividend yield, so the market already discounts a softer gold cycle. | High |
| Technical trend | NEM closed below its 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages with RSI near 47.4, MACD of -1.48, low ADX, and a neutral consensus from Intellectia on July 31, 2026. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is medium-high because gold price reversal, oil-driven cost inflation near $60 million per $10 per barrel, the Cadia restart, reclamation spending, the Barrick Nevada Gold Mines dispute, and reserve replacement can all move value. | High |
| AI confidence | High for filings and reported numbers that cross-checked across StockAnalysis, the Q2 2026 release, and the earnings call. Lower for gold price, oil, and share price outcomes. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. Data coverage is rich, but the stock remains tied to commodity-cycle economics, mine execution, and a large reclamation and joint venture agenda. | Medium |
NEM AI stock forecast
The NEM AI stock forecast uses a three-year scenario framework around the July 31, 2026 close of $93.71 and the FY2026 consensus adjusted EPS near $9.45. The model produced a bearish area near $78, a base area near $131, and a bullish area near $199 using EPS growth of -3%, 5%, and 12% with exit multiples of 9x, 12x, and 15x. These are scenario outputs, not price commitments.
$185 to $215
More likely if gold recovers toward $4,800 to $5,200 per ounce, Newmont holds cost guidance, Cadia restarts cleanly, Red Chris advances toward final investment decision, and NEM reclaims the $97 to $101 resistance band with stronger volume.
$120 to $140
More likely if gold stabilizes around $4,000 to $4,400, Newmont delivers its 5.3 million ounce and $1,680 AISC guidance, buybacks keep cutting the share count, and the stock holds near an 11x to 13x forward multiple.
$65 to $85
More likely if gold falls toward $3,500 to $3,700, oil keeps lifting costs, the Barrick Nevada Gold Mines dispute escalates, the Cadia or other project recovery slips, or NEM loses the $89.08 support and then the $85.05 Fibonacci floor.
NEM AI technical analysis
NEM AI technical analysis uses StockAnalysis market data, Intellectia, and Barchart technical snapshots as of July 31, 2026 with the August 2, 2026 data cutoff. The setup is neutral to weak: price at $93.71 sits below the 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, RSI(14) is near 47.4, MACD is -1.48, and ADX(14) near 11 shows no established trend. Intellectia rates the overall consensus Neutral with 4 buy and 5 sell signals.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $93.71 | StockAnalysis close on July 31, 2026 with a day range of $91.85 to $94.90 and after-hours trading near $93.55. |
| Near support | $89.08 | Intellectia classic S1 and cited strong support; losing it would expose the next Fibonacci floor. |
| Deeper support | $85.05 | The Intellectia Fibonacci floor and classic S2 level if near support fails. |
| Near resistance | $97.04 | Intellectia classic R1 and pivot-based resistance; a break above would signal a bull continuation. |
| Upper resistance | $100.97 to $105.00 | Intellectia classic R2 and R3, close to the 60-day and 100-day moving averages overhead. |
| 20-day moving average | About $93.57 | Barchart reported the 20-day moving average near $93.57 on July 31, 2026, so price is right at the line. |
| 50-day moving average | About $98.80 | Barchart and StockAnalysis both placed the 50-day moving average near $98.80, above price. |
| 100-day moving average | About $105.09 | Barchart reported the 100-day moving average near $105.09, well above price. |
| 200-day moving average | About $104.23 | Barchart, StockAnalysis, and Intellectia all placed the 200-day trend line near $104.23, confirming the longer-term downtrend from the high. |
| Momentum | RSI 47.36, MACD -1.48 | Intellectia and Barchart reported RSI(14) near 47.4, MACD at -1.48, and ADX(14) near 11, a neutral to slightly negative momentum picture. |
| Volume | About 5.9 million shares | StockAnalysis listed volume of 5.87 million on July 31, 2026 with a 20-day average near 7.17 million, so rallies need volume confirmation. |
| Volatility | High, near 40% historic | Barchart reported 14-day historic volatility near 39.8% and a 14-day average true range near $3.61, so position sizing should account for large swings with gold and oil. |
| Invalidation | Close below $89.08, then $85.05 | A break below near support would weaken the trading setup even if the long-term gold thesis and balance sheet stay intact. |
NEM AI trading strategy
The NEM AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework, not personalized advice. Traders should pair it with live gold and oil prices, production updates, AISC and CAS trends, Cadia and Red Chris news, buyback pace, volume, and predefined invalidation levels.
Wait for NEM to reclaim $97.04 and then to hold above the 50-day moving average near $98.80 with improving volume and a stabilizing gold price before treating the correction as over.
A failed reclaim of resistance or a daily close back below $89.08 invalidates the short-term trend setup.
If NEM holds the $89.08 to $93.00 support zone while gold stays firm and free cash flow remains strong, compare downside to net cash near $3.4 billion, the $6 billion buyback authorization, and normalized EPS before using a reversion framework.
Do not rely on headline net cash alone if oil keeps lifting costs, gold support breaks, or the Nevada Gold Mines dispute creates headline risk.
Track realized gold price, attributable gold production, by-product AISC, CAS, sustaining and development capital, Cadia cave restart, Red Chris final investment decision, reclamation spend, buybacks, dividends, net cash, and the Barrick joint venture status.
Reduce confidence when shareholder returns depend mainly on a gold price that is falling while costs, reclamation obligations, or joint venture complexity rise.
Investment research summary
Newmont converts mineral reserves, mining know-how, and processing assets into gold-led cash flows, with TTM revenue near $25.77 billion of which gold made up roughly 85%. Customers pay for gold as a monetary, jewelry, and industrial metal, and Newmont earns the spread between realized prices and mine costs.
The moat is not brand pricing power. It is the difficulty of replicating long-life reserves, permitted mines, block cave expertise, processing plants, local relationships, and a balance sheet that can fund projects and buybacks through commodity cycles.
The thesis fails if gold prices keep falling from the 2026 peak, oil near $100 per barrel lifts costs faster than productivity gains, Cadia or other projects slip, reclamation obligations consume cash flow, or the Nevada Gold Mines dispute with Barrick damages value.
Management is being judged on capital allocation after a record cash flow year: $1.9 billion returned in the quarter, more than 100 million shares repurchased since February 2024, a sustainable dividend framework, disciplined project spending, and cost control through a gold correction.
Long-run gold demand is supported by central-bank buying, financial uncertainty, and limited large new discoveries, and copper exposure adds optionality. The offset is cost inflation, permitting delays, oil prices, declining grades, and depleting ore bodies across the sector.
At $93.71, roughly 30% below the 52-week high, NEM trades near 11.9x trailing EPS, 9.2x forward earnings, and 10.2x free cash flow. Margin of safety is improving but still depends on whether gold stabilizes and costs stay controlled through the cycle.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| NEM price | $93.71 at the July 31, 2026 close | StockAnalysis quote page | August 2, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $98.74 billion, verified as $93.71 x about 1.05 billion shares with 0.35% deviation | financial_rigor.py market cap verification | August 2, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 1.05 billion shares, down 3.94% year over year | StockAnalysis statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| 52-week range | $61.76 to $134.88 | StockAnalysis quote page | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 revenue | $6.118 billion, down from $7.307 billion in Q1 2026 | StockAnalysis quarterly financials and Newmont Q2 2026 release | July 29, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 adjusted results | Adjusted net income of $2.246 billion or $2.10 per diluted share and adjusted EBITDA of $3.757 billion | Newmont Q2 2026 earnings release | July 23, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 cash flow | Net cash from operations of $2.924 billion and record second quarter free cash flow of $2.205 billion | Newmont Q2 2026 earnings release | July 23, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 realized price and costs | Average realized gold price of $4,414 per ounce and gold by-product AISC of $1,621 per ounce | Newmont Q2 2026 earnings release | July 23, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $22.669 billion, cross-checked at 0.00% deviation across StockAnalysis and company data | StockAnalysis financials and Newmont FY2025 results | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income | $7.085 billion or $6.39 per diluted share | StockAnalysis financials | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 free cash flow | $7.299 billion | Newmont FY2025 results release and StockAnalysis | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM financials | Revenue of $25.77 billion, net income of $8.60 billion, EPS of $7.90, and free cash flow of $9.73 billion through June 30, 2026 | StockAnalysis statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Balance sheet, June 30, 2026 | Cash of $9.0 billion, total debt of $5.6 billion, and net cash of $3.4 billion with $13.0 billion of total liquidity | Newmont Q2 2026 earnings release and StockAnalysis balance sheet | July 23, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | 11.86x trailing PE, 9.17x forward PE, 10.15x P/FCF, 2.82x PB, 5.72x EV/EBITDA, and 1.11% dividend yield | StockAnalysis statistics and financial_rigor.py verification | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy with an average target of $129.27 across 22 analysts, low $67 and high $168, median $128 | StockAnalysis forecast | July 28, 2026 |
| Recent analyst target updates | CIBC $168, Scotiabank $147, RBC $135, BofA $135, and Barclays $124 in July 2026 | StockAnalysis forecast latest forecasts and TipRanks | July 28, 2026 |
| FY2026 consensus estimates | FY2026 revenue estimate of $26.85 billion with adjusted EPS of $9.45, and FY2027 EPS of $10.59 | StockAnalysis forecast financial forecast | July 28, 2026 |
| 2026 guidance | About 5,260 thousand attributable gold ounces at $1,680 per ounce AISC, $1.95 billion sustaining capital, and $1.4 billion development capital | Newmont 2026 guidance, reaffirmed July 23, 2026 | July 23, 2026 |
| Capital returns | $1.9 billion returned since the April 2026 call, $1.7 billion in buybacks, $4.3 billion remaining of the $6 billion authorization, and more than 100 million shares repurchased since February 2024 | Newmont Q2 2026 earnings release and earnings call | July 23, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | Support $89.08, resistance $97.04, 20-day moving average $93.57, 50-day $98.80, 200-day $104.23, RSI(14) 47.36, and MACD -1.48 | Intellectia and Barchart technical snapshots | July 31, 2026 |
| Short interest | 19.92 million shares short, 1.89% of shares outstanding | StockAnalysis statistics short selling | August 2, 2026 |
| Ownership snapshot | 0.07% insider ownership and 81.04% institutional ownership | StockAnalysis statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Financial-rigor verification | Market cap math passed at 0.35% deviation, valuation ratios passed, and revenue and Q2 free cash flow cross-checks passed at 0.00% deviation | Pineify tools/financial_rigor.py local run | August 2, 2026 |
This NEM AI stock analysis page is an informational tool only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a guarantee of returns. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available public data as of August 2, 2026 and can be wrong if gold or oil prices, costs, production, valuation multiples, joint venture outcomes, or market conditions change.
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