Bullish case
$145 to $165
More likely if gold prices stay firm, Newmont holds cost guidance, free cash flow remains high, buybacks reduce share count, net cash stays positive, and NEM reclaims the $99 to $103 resistance band with stronger volume.
Newmont Corporation research snapshot
NEM AI Stock Analysis
NEM AI stock analysis currently reads Newmont Corporation as the world-scale gold miner with strong 2025 cash generation, a net cash balance, large gold reserves, copper optionality, and a shareholder return framework funded by high gold prices. The caution is that NEM is still a commodity, mine-execution, cost, and reserve-replacement story. At the July 8, 2026 data cutoff, the latest StockAnalysis close used here was $95.06 on July 7, 2026, with verified market capitalization near $100.58 billion. The NEM AI stock forecast uses scenarios, not a certain price prediction, and this page is informational research, not investment advice.
Current price
$95.06
Market cap
$100.58 billion verified market cap
AI score
67 / 100
Rating
High-quality gold mining leader with strong cash generation and commodity-cycle risk
Trend status
Fundamentally strong, but short-term technical momentum is weak below key moving averages
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 8, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
Research quality check
- information Richness
- A-level information richness. Newmont has long public history, SEC filings, detailed investor releases, company operating guidance, StockAnalysis and Macrotrends financial history, technical snapshots, and broad mining-sector coverage.
- bias Check
- The main AI research bias is extrapolating high gold prices and record free cash flow into a straight-line growth story. The counter-check is to ask how NEM performs if gold prices normalize, unit costs rise, reserve grades disappoint, major mines miss plan, or capital returns slow.
- ai Confidence
- High for reported 2025 revenue, 2025 net income, Q1 2026 cash, share count, market-cap math, valuation ratios, and company capital return data. Medium for technical levels and forward scenarios because gold prices, cost inflation, mine sequencing, and market sentiment can change quickly.
- investment Certainty
- Medium. Newmont is easier to research than most miners, but actual investment certainty is limited by commodity prices, grades, permitting, sustaining capital, geopolitical exposure, environmental obligations, and execution across a large mine portfolio.
Quick verdict table
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Newmont sells gold and by-product copper, silver, zinc, and lead from a large global mine portfolio. Demand for gold is deep, but realized prices and mine costs drive earnings. | High |
| Moat | The moat is asset-based: scale, long-life reserves, technical mining capability, favorable-jurisdiction mix, balance-sheet strength, and scarce large gold project access. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO Natascha Viljoen inherited a streamlined portfolio, high cash balance, expanded buyback authorization, and the task of converting gold-price tailwinds into durable per-share value. | Medium |
| Financial trend | 2025 revenue was $22.669 billion and net income to common was $7.085 billion, while Q1 2026 ended with $8.8 billion of cash and a $3.2 billion net cash position. | High |
| Valuation | At $95.06, NEM screens near 12.33x TTM EPS, 10.89x free cash flow, 2.92x book, and about 1.09% dividend yield, so value depends on sustained gold margins and capital returns. | High |
| Technical trend | Public technical snapshots around the cutoff showed NEM below 20-day, 60-day, and 200-day moving averages, with MACD and momentum signals weak despite strong fundamentals. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is medium-high because gold prices, energy costs, labor, grades, mine plans, country exposure, reclamation costs, and reserve replacement can all move intrinsic value. | High |
| AI confidence | High for historical financials and balance-sheet facts. Lower for commodity-price, mine-plan, and share-price outcomes. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty because Newmont has rare scale and liquidity, but the stock remains tied to gold-cycle economics and mining execution. | Medium |
NEM AI stock forecast
NEM AI Stock Forecast Scenarios
The NEM AI stock forecast uses a three-year scenario framework around the $95.06 cutoff price. The financial-rigor model produced a bullish value near $155.40, a base value near $101.10, and a bearish value near $48.00 using TTM EPS, growth, and terminal PE assumptions. These are scenario outputs, not promises.
Base case
$95 to $110
More likely if gold margins remain good but sustaining capital, mine sequencing, and lower technical momentum keep valuation near a mid-cycle earnings multiple.
Bearish case
$45 to $55
More likely if gold prices fall, unit costs rise, reserve or grade assumptions disappoint, major operations miss plan, or NEM loses the $91.73 support area and retests the lower technical floor near $87.97.
NEM AI technical analysis
NEM AI Technical Analysis
NEM AI technical analysis uses StockAnalysis market data as of July 7, 2026 and public technical snapshots dated July 7, 2026. The near-term setup was weak: Intellectia reported NEM below its 20-day, 60-day, and 200-day simple moving averages, with RSI neutral but MACD and momentum still sell-biased.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $95.06 | Latest StockAnalysis close used for this page, dated July 7, 2026. |
| Near support | $91.73 | Intellectia cited this as strong support near the data cutoff. |
| Deeper support | $87.97 | A cited Fibonacci support level if immediate support fails. |
| Near resistance | $99.23 | Immediate resistance from the same public technical snapshot; a reclaim would improve the short-term setup. |
| 20-day moving average | About $98.42 | NEM traded below this moving average in the July 7, 2026 technical snapshot. |
| 60-day moving average | About $107.41 | Trading below this level showed weak intermediate momentum. |
| 200-day moving average | About $103.51 | A price below the 200-day average keeps the technical read cautious. |
| Momentum | RSI 41.65, MACD -3.07 | RSI was neutral while MACD and momentum indicators were sell-biased in the technical source. |
| Volume | 6.2 million in a public snapshot | Financhill cited 6.2 million share volume near the cutoff, so rallies need volume confirmation. |
| Volatility | High commodity sensitivity | Gold price, production guidance, mine costs, and buyback pace can change the trading range quickly. |
| Invalidation | Close below $91.73, then $87.97 | A break below support would weaken the trading setup even if the long-term gold thesis remains intact. |
NEM AI trading strategy
NEM AI Trading Strategy Framework
The NEM AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework, not personalized advice. Traders should pair the setup with live gold prices, production updates, sustaining capital, AISC trends, buyback pace, volume, and predefined invalidation levels.
Trend-following setup
Wait for NEM to reclaim $99.23 and then test whether price can hold above the 20-day moving average with improving volume and stable gold-price momentum.
A failed reclaim of resistance or a close back below $91.73 invalidates the short-term trend setup.
Mean-reversion setup
If NEM stabilizes near support while gold remains firm and cash flow stays strong, compare downside to the net cash balance, buyback authorization, and normalized EPS before using a reversion framework.
Do not rely on headline net cash alone if costs rise, mine plans slip, or gold-price support breaks.
Fundamental monitor
Track gold and copper prices, attributable gold production, AISC, sustaining capital, development capital, reserve replacement, share repurchases, dividends, cash, debt, and country exposure.
Reduce confidence when capital returns depend mainly on high commodity prices while operating or reserve quality deteriorates.
Investment research summary
Four-master Research Compression
Business essence
Newmont converts mineral reserves, mining know-how, and processing assets into gold-led cash flows. Customers pay for gold as a monetary, jewelry, and industrial metal, while Newmont earns the spread between realized prices and mine costs.
Moat
The moat is not brand pricing power. It is the difficulty of replicating long-life gold reserves, permitted mines, technical teams, processing plants, local relationships, and a balance sheet that can fund projects through cycles.
Munger risk inversion
The thesis fails if gold prices normalize faster than costs, sustaining capital is underestimated, grades disappoint, reserve replacement weakens, or governments and communities demand more economics from the asset base.
Management
Management quality will be judged by capital allocation after a record cash-flow year: buybacks at sensible prices, dividend durability, disciplined project spending, debt control, and safety and environmental execution.
Industry trend
Long-run gold demand benefits from central-bank buying, financial uncertainty, and limited new large discoveries. The offset is that miners still face inflation, permitting delays, local politics, and depleting ore bodies.
Valuation and margin of safety
At $95.06, NEM is not priced as a distressed miner. Margin of safety depends on whether high free cash flow and buybacks can persist when gold prices and mine costs move through a full cycle.
Source-backed data
NEM Data Table
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current price | $95.06 close on July 7, 2026 | Stock Analysis market cap page | July 8, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $100.58 billion as of July 7, 2026 | Stock Analysis market cap page | July 8, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 1.06 billion shares | Stock Analysis statistics | July 8, 2026 |
| 2025 revenue | $22.669 billion | Macrotrends revenue history | July 8, 2026 |
| 2025 net income to common | $7.085 billion | Macrotrends net income history | July 8, 2026 |
| 2025 free cash flow | $7.3 billion | Newmont FY2025 results release | July 8, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 cash and liquidity | $8.8 billion cash and $12.8 billion total liquidity | Newmont Q1 2026 results release | July 8, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 net cash | $3.2 billion net cash position | Newmont Q1 2026 results release | July 8, 2026 |
| 2025 reserves | 118.2 million attributable gold ounces and 12.5 million tonnes of copper reserves | Newmont FY2025 results release | July 8, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | 12.36x trailing PE, 9.34x forward PE, 2.92x PB, 10.89x P/FCF | Stock Analysis statistics | July 8, 2026 |
| Ownership snapshot | 0.07% insider ownership and 80.62% institutional ownership | Stock Analysis statistics | July 8, 2026 |
| Technical levels | Support $91.73, resistance $99.23, 200-day MA about $103.51 | Intellectia technical snapshot | July 8, 2026 |
| Financial-rigor verification | Market-cap math passed with 0.18% variance; revenue, net income, and Q1 cash cross-checks passed within tolerance | Pineify tools/financial_rigor.py local run | July 8, 2026 |
Frequently Asked Questions
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This NEM AI stock analysis page is an informational tool only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a guarantee of returns. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available public data as of July 8, 2026 and can be wrong if gold prices, costs, production, valuation multiples, or market conditions change.