NBT Bancorp Inc. research snapshot
NBTB AI stock analysis currently reads NBT Bancorp as a conservatively managed Northeast regional bank with 176 branches across seven states, a 170-year operating history, a 2.94% dividend yield, and a 0.48 beta that makes it one of the lowest-volatility bank stocks. At the July 12, 2026 data cutoff, NBTB traded near $50.28 with an independently verified market capitalization of about $2.62 billion. The setup is constructive but not aggressive: the bank benefits from stable deposit relationships, branch density, and the Evans Bank acquisition that expanded into Western New York, while facing headwinds from commercial real estate concentration, net interest margin compression, and the lower-growth ceiling of a smaller regional bank. This page uses scenarios, technical levels, and source-backed facts. It is informational research, not investment advice.
Current price
$50.28
Market cap
$2.62 billion verified market cap
AI score
63 / 100
Rating
Stable upstate New York and Northeast regional bank with branch density, Evans Bank expansion upside, and credit-cycle risk
Trend status
Positive near 52-week high of $51.09, above key moving averages with a 0.48 beta
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | NBT Bancorp earns spread income and fee income from consumer banking, commercial lending, wealth management, insurance, trust, and treasury services across 176 branches in New York, Pennsylvania, Vermont, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Maine, and Connecticut. | Medium-high |
| Moat | The moat comes from 170 years of brand equity, core deposit relationships, branch density across smaller Northeast markets, local underwriting knowledge, regulatory licenses, and switching friction. It is useful but narrow because customers can still shop rates and larger banks compete aggressively. | Medium |
| Management | Scott A. Kingsley became President and CEO in 2019 and has led the Evans Bank acquisition to expand into Western New York. Chairman Martin A. Dietrich provides board continuity. The team has maintained conservative underwriting and a clean dividend record. | Medium |
| Financial trend | TTM revenue was about $696.6 million and TTM net income to common was about $183.6 million. Q1 2026 revenue was $178.9 million with net income of $51.1 million. Profit margin was about 26.4% and after-tax ROE about 10.6%. | High |
| Valuation | At $50.28, NBTB screened near 14.32x TTM EPS, 1.36x book value, 13.52x free cash flow, and a 2.94% dividend yield using verified financial data from Google Finance. | High |
| Technical trend | NBTB closed near its 52-week high of $51.09. Google Finance showed a 52-week range of $39.20 to $51.09, beta of 0.48, and average volume near 369,000 shares. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are CRE concentration in the loan portfolio, Evans Bank integration execution, NIM compression, deposit competition, limited organic growth, small-cap bank valuation, and the Northeast economic exposure. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high for reported financials and market data. Forward return confidence is lower because a small regional bank depends on regional economic conditions, rate trajectory, credit trends, and Evans Bank integration outcomes. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | NBTB offers a stable deposit franchise and a 2.94% dividend yield with very low beta, but investment certainty is medium because the stock has modest growth potential, limited trading liquidity, and a valuation that reflects the Northeast community bank profile. | Medium |
NBTB AI stock forecast
The NBTB AI stock forecast is scenario-based because the Northeast economy, interest rates, and credit conditions drive results. Using the $50.28 reference price, $3.51 TTM EPS, and the verified three-year model, the mechanical range points to about $32 in a bear case, $51 in a base case, and $66 in a bullish case before dividends. Outcomes depend on loan growth, NIM trends, CRE credit quality, regional economic activity, and the valuation multiple investors apply to a small regional bank.
$63 to $69 before dividends
More likely if NBTB compounds EPS near 8% annually, Evans Bank integration delivers cost saves and deposit growth, NIM stabilizes or improves, CRE credit stays clean, loan demand holds up, and investors apply about 15x earnings to a stable Northeast bank.
$49 to $54 before dividends
More likely if EPS compounds near 4%, NIM normalizes gradually, regional economic growth matches national trends, CRE losses stay manageable, and the market values the bank at about 13x normalized earnings.
$30 to $35 before dividends
More likely if CRE losses rise meaningfully in the Northeast, NIM compresses further, deposit costs stay elevated, Evans Bank integration encounters issues, loan growth stalls, or the market values the bank near 10x stressed earnings.
NBTB AI technical analysis
NBTB AI technical analysis is moderately constructive as of the July 12, 2026 data cutoff. Google Finance showed NBTB closing near $50.28, close to its 52-week high of $51.09 and above the prior trading range. The near-term trend is positive but the stock is near the top of its range, making breakout confirmation and risk management important.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $50.28 | Google Finance closing quote for July 10, 2026, the latest completed trading session before the July 12 research date. |
| Near support | $47.50 to $48.50 | This zone brackets recent pullback levels and the implied 20-day moving average area, representing the first support test if NBTB corrects from the high. |
| Deeper support | $44.00 to $45.50 | This area aligns with prior consolidation levels from earlier in 2026 and would be the primary trend test for a more meaningful pullback. |
| Near resistance | $51.09 | The 52-week high is the immediate overhead resistance. A breakout above it would need volume and catalyst confirmation from Q2 earnings or regional bank sentiment. |
| Upper resistance | $53 to $56 | This range aligns with analyst price targets ($52 to $56) and would likely require stable earnings, stable or improving NIM, and no negative credit surprises. |
| 52-week range | $39.20 to $51.09 | The stock has rallied from the 52-week low and is now near the top end, making risk-reward less compelling without a confirmed breakout above $51.09. |
| Momentum | Positive near-term | NBTB has been trending up from the $39.20 low and is testing the upper end of the range. Momentum could shift on the upcoming July 27, 2026 earnings report. |
| Volume | Average near 369,000 shares | Volume is modest for a small-cap bank. Breakouts and breakdowns may require several sessions to confirm given the thin liquidity. |
| Volatility | Low for a bank stock (beta 0.48) | The below-unity beta makes NBTB a lower-volatility holding, though earnings, rate decisions, CRE headlines, and economic data can still produce sharp moves. |
| Invalidation | Close below $47.50 | A sustained break below the near-support zone would reduce trend confidence. A deeper break below $44 would point to a more significant trend change. |
NBTB AI trading strategy
The NBTB AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It connects chart levels with Northeast economic trends, NIM, loan growth, deposits, CRE credit quality, Evans Bank integration, dividend metrics, and regional bank sentiment.
Watch for NBTB to break above $51.09 with above-average volume and earnings confirming stable NIM, steady loan demand, clean CRE credit, and solid Evans Bank integration progress.
A failed breakout followed by a close below $47.50 should reduce trend confidence, especially if management signals weaker NIM, higher CRE provisions, or slower Evans Bank cost saves.
If NBTB pulls back toward the $44 to $45.50 zone while regional economic data and bank fundamentals remain stable, compare the lower price with book value, EPS, dividend yield, and peer regional bank valuations.
Do not treat a lower price as automatically attractive if CRE losses rise, NIM compression deepens, Evans Bank integration stalls, or deposit costs spike.
Track net interest income, NIM, loan growth, deposit trends, net charge-offs, nonperforming assets, CRE exposure, CET1 ratio, tangible book value per share, Evans Bank integration milestones, Northeast economic indicators, and dividend stability.
Position sizing should reflect that NBTB is a small-cap regional bank with Northeast geographic concentration, CRE concentration, and limited earnings catalysts, not a diversified high-growth compounding business.
Investment research summary
NBT Bancorp provides deposit, lending, wealth, insurance, trust, and treasury services to consumers and businesses across 176 branches in the Northeast United States. The bank monetizes community deposit franchises through spread lending and relationship-based fee income, with recent expansion into Western New York through the Evans Bank acquisition.
The moat comes from 170 years of brand equity across smaller Northeast markets, core deposit relationships, branch density, local underwriting knowledge, regulatory licenses, and switching friction. However, the moat is narrow rather than wide because the Northeast is a slow-growing, competitive banking market that limits compoundable scale.
The thesis fails if Northeast CRE losses rise materially, Evans Bank integration distracts management or misses cost saves, NIM compresses further as deposit costs rise faster than asset yields, loan growth stalls from weak regional demand, deposit competition from larger banks intensifies, or the stock becomes a perpetual low-growth community bank discount.
CEO Scott A. Kingsley has led NBTB since 2019, steering through the Evans Bank acquisition that added 14 branches in the Buffalo area and 4 in Rochester. Chairman Martin A. Dietrich provides board stability. The management team has maintained conservative underwriting, stable dividend policy, and consistent credit performance.
Regional and community banks face margin pressure from deposit competition, rate cycles, digital transformation costs, and regulatory requirements. NBTB is insulated by its long-standing community relationships and branch density in smaller markets, but constrained by the slow-growth nature of the Northeast economy and competition from larger regional and national banks.
At $50.28, NBTB trades at roughly 14.3x TTM EPS and 1.36x book value with a 2.94% dividend yield. Margin of safety is limited because the price already reflects stability and recent momentum, and the low-growth ceiling means upside depends mainly on multiple expansion, rate-driven NIM improvement, or successful Evans Bank accretion rather than organic compounding.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current price | $50.28 close on July 10, 2026 | Google Finance NBTB quote | July 12, 2026 |
| Verified market capitalization | $2.62 billion using $50.28 price and 52.01 million shares | Google Finance and financial_rigor.py market cap check | July 12, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 52.01 million common shares | Google Finance summary data | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | $696.6 million, cross-checked against Yahoo Finance | Google Finance income statement and Yahoo Finance | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM net income to common | $183.6 million | Google Finance income statement and Yahoo Finance | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM EPS | $3.51 | Google Finance statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 net income and EPS | $51.1 million net income and $0.97 diluted EPS | Google Finance income statement and Wikipedia | July 12, 2026 |
| Total assets and equity | $16.2 billion total assets, $1.91 billion total equity (Q1 2026) | Wikipedia NBT Bancorp page | July 12, 2026 |
| Total cash (mrq) | $784.3 million | Yahoo Finance statistics for NBTB | July 12, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | 14.32x TTM PE, 1.36x PB, 13.52x P/FCF, 6.98% earnings yield, 2.94% dividend yield, 9.49% ROE per financial_rigor.py | Google Finance and financial_rigor.py valuation verification | July 12, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 52-week range $39.20 to $51.09, beta 0.48, average volume 369,000 shares | Google Finance statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Branches and footprint | 176 branches in NY, PA, VT, MA, NH, ME, CT | Wikipedia NBT Bancorp page | July 12, 2026 |
This NBTB AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Forecast scenarios are based on public data available at the cutoff date and can be wrong if Northeast economic conditions, interest rates, CRE credit costs, deposit competition, Evans Bank integration outcomes, valuation multiples, or market conditions change.
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