NBT Bancorp Inc. research snapshot
NBTB AI stock analysis currently reads NBT Bancorp as a conservatively managed Northeast regional bank with 176 branches across seven states, a 170-year operating history, a 3.02% dividend yield, and a 0.48 beta that makes it one of the lowest-volatility bank stocks. At the August 4, 2026 data cutoff, NBTB closed at $52.91 on August 3, 2026 with an independently verified market capitalization of about $2.75 billion. The setup is constructive but not aggressive: the bank grew Q2 2026 earnings to $53.0 million, raised its quarterly dividend 8.1% to $0.40, and continues to integrate the Evans Bank acquisition, while facing headwinds from commercial real estate concentration, net interest margin pressure, a Q2 revenue miss against estimates, and the lower-growth ceiling of a smaller regional bank. This page uses scenarios, technical levels, and source-backed facts. It is informational research, not investment advice.
Current price
$52.91
Market cap
$2.75 billion verified market cap
AI score
65 / 100
Rating
Stable upstate New York and Northeast regional bank with branch density, Q2 earnings growth, an 8.1% dividend increase, and CRE concentration and valuation risk near the 52-week high
Trend status
Positive, trading near the $54.48 52-week high, above key moving averages with a 0.48 beta
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | NBT Bancorp earns spread income and fee income from consumer banking, commercial lending, wealth management, insurance, trust, and treasury services across 176 branches in New York, Pennsylvania, Vermont, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Maine, and Connecticut. | Medium-high |
| Moat | The moat comes from 170 years of brand equity, core deposit relationships, branch density across smaller Northeast markets, local underwriting knowledge, regulatory licenses, and switching friction. It is useful but narrow because customers can still shop rates and larger banks compete aggressively. | Medium |
| Management | Scott A. Kingsley became President and CEO in 2019 and has led the Evans Bank acquisition to expand into Western New York. Chairman Martin A. Dietrich provides board continuity. The team delivered Q2 2026 net income growth and an 8.1% dividend increase announced July 28, 2026. | Medium |
| Financial trend | TTM revenue was about $723.8 million and TTM net income to common was about $214.2 million. Q2 2026 (June quarter) revenue was $180.6 million with net income of $53.0 million, EPS of $1.01, and a 29.4% net margin. Profit margin was about 29.6% and after-tax ROE about 11.4% per Yahoo Finance. | High |
| Valuation | At $52.91, NBTB screened near 12.95x TTM EPS, 1.44x book value, 3.80x TTM revenue, and a 3.02% dividend yield using verified financial data from Google Finance and the financial_rigor.py valuation check. | High |
| Technical trend | NBTB closed August 3, 2026 at $52.91, near its 52-week high of $54.48. Google Finance showed a 52-week range of $39.20 to $54.48, beta of 0.48, and average volume near 433,000 shares. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are CRE concentration in the loan portfolio, the Q2 revenue miss, Evans Bank integration execution, NIM compression, deposit competition, limited organic growth, small-cap bank valuation, and the Northeast economic exposure. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high for reported financials and market data. Forward return confidence is lower because a small regional bank depends on regional economic conditions, rate trajectory, credit trends, and Evans Bank integration outcomes. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | NBTB offers a stable deposit franchise and a 3.02% dividend yield with very low beta, but investment certainty is medium because the stock has modest growth potential, limited trading liquidity, and a valuation near the top of its 52-week range. | Medium |
NBTB AI stock forecast
The NBTB AI stock forecast is scenario-based because the Northeast economy, interest rates, and credit conditions drive results. Using the $52.91 reference price, $4.09 TTM EPS, and the verified three-year model, the mechanical range points to about $36 in a bear case, $56 in a base case, and $75 in a bullish case before dividends. Outcomes depend on loan growth, NIM trends, CRE credit quality, regional economic activity, the Q2 revenue miss recovery, and the valuation multiple investors apply to a small regional bank.
$72 to $78 before dividends
More likely if NBTB compounds EPS near 7% annually, Evans Bank integration delivers cost saves and deposit growth, NIM stabilizes or improves, CRE credit stays clean, loan demand holds up, revenue growth resumes after the Q2 miss, and investors apply about 15x earnings to a stable Northeast bank.
$54 to $58 before dividends
More likely if EPS compounds near 3%, NIM normalizes gradually, regional economic growth matches national trends, CRE losses stay manageable, and the market values the bank at about 12x normalized earnings.
$34 to $38 before dividends
More likely if CRE losses rise meaningfully in the Northeast, NIM compresses further, deposit costs stay elevated, revenue keeps missing estimates, Evans Bank integration encounters issues, loan growth stalls, or the market values the bank near 10x stressed earnings.
NBTB AI technical analysis
NBTB AI technical analysis is constructive as of the August 4, 2026 data cutoff. Google Finance showed NBTB closing August 3, 2026 at $52.91, within about 3% of its 52-week high of $54.48 and near the top of the prior trading range. The near-term trend is positive but the stock is at the top of its range, making breakout confirmation and risk management important.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $52.91 | Google Finance closing quote for August 3, 2026, the latest completed trading session before the August 4 research date. |
| Near support | $50.50 to $51.50 | This zone brackets the recent breakout area and round-number support, representing the first support test if NBTB corrects from near the high. |
| Deeper support | $47.50 to $48.50 | This area aligns with prior consolidation levels from earlier in 2026 and would be the primary trend test for a more meaningful pullback. |
| Near resistance | $54.48 | The 52-week high is the immediate overhead resistance. A breakout above it would need volume and catalyst confirmation from third-quarter earnings or regional bank sentiment. |
| Upper resistance | $56 to $59 | This range aligns with analyst price targets ($54 to $59) and would likely require stable earnings, stable or improving NIM, and no negative credit surprises. |
| 52-week range | $39.20 to $54.48 | The stock has rallied from the 52-week low and is now near the top end, making risk-reward less compelling without a confirmed breakout above $54.48. |
| Momentum | Positive near-term | NBTB has been trending up from the $39.20 low and is testing the upper end of the range. Momentum could shift on the estimated October 26, 2026 earnings report. |
| Volume | Average near 433,000 shares | Volume is modest for a small-cap bank. Breakouts and breakdowns may require several sessions to confirm given the thin liquidity. |
| Volatility | Low for a bank stock (beta 0.48) | The below-unity beta makes NBTB a lower-volatility holding, though earnings, rate decisions, CRE headlines, and economic data can still produce sharp moves. |
| Invalidation | Close below $50.50 | A sustained break below the near-support zone would reduce trend confidence. A deeper break below $47.50 would point to a more significant trend change. |
NBTB AI trading strategy
The NBTB AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It connects chart levels with Northeast economic trends, NIM, loan growth, deposits, CRE credit quality, Evans Bank integration, dividend metrics, the Q2 revenue miss recovery, and regional bank sentiment.
Watch for NBTB to break above $54.48 with above-average volume and earnings confirming stable NIM, steady loan demand, revenue recovery, clean CRE credit, and solid Evans Bank integration progress.
A failed breakout followed by a close below $50.50 should reduce trend confidence, especially if management signals weaker NIM, higher CRE provisions, or slower Evans Bank cost saves.
If NBTB pulls back toward the $47.50 to $48.50 zone while regional economic data and bank fundamentals remain stable, compare the lower price with book value, EPS, dividend yield, and peer regional bank valuations.
Do not treat a lower price as automatically attractive if CRE losses rise, NIM compression deepens, Evans Bank integration stalls, revenue misses persist, or deposit costs spike.
Track net interest income, NIM, loan growth, deposit trends, net charge-offs, nonperforming assets, CRE exposure, CET1 ratio, tangible book value per share, Evans Bank integration milestones, dividend growth, Northeast economic indicators, and revenue versus estimate trends.
Position sizing should reflect that NBTB is a small-cap regional bank with Northeast geographic concentration, CRE concentration, and limited earnings catalysts, not a diversified high-growth compounding business.
Investment research summary
NBT Bancorp provides deposit, lending, wealth, insurance, trust, and treasury services to consumers and businesses across 176 branches in the Northeast United States. The bank monetizes community deposit franchises through spread lending and relationship-based fee income, with recent expansion into Western New York through the Evans Bank acquisition.
The moat comes from 170 years of brand equity across smaller Northeast markets, core deposit relationships, branch density, local underwriting knowledge, regulatory licenses, and switching friction. However, the moat is narrow rather than wide because the Northeast is a slow-growing, competitive banking market that limits compoundable scale.
The thesis fails if Northeast CRE losses rise materially, Evans Bank integration distracts management or misses cost saves, NIM compresses further as deposit costs rise faster than asset yields, revenue keeps missing estimates after the Q2 2026 miss, loan growth stalls from weak regional demand, deposit competition from larger banks intensifies, or the stock becomes a perpetual low-growth community bank discount.
CEO Scott A. Kingsley has led NBTB since 2019, steering through the Evans Bank acquisition that added 14 branches in the Buffalo area and 4 in Rochester. Chairman Martin A. Dietrich provides board stability. On July 28, 2026 the team reported Q2 2026 results with $53.0 million net income and approved an 8.1% cash dividend increase to $0.40 per quarter.
Regional and community banks face margin pressure from deposit competition, rate cycles, digital transformation costs, and regulatory requirements. NBTB is insulated by its long-standing community relationships and branch density in smaller markets, but constrained by the slow-growth nature of the Northeast economy and competition from larger regional and national banks.
At $52.91, NBTB trades at roughly 12.95x TTM EPS and 1.44x book value with a 3.02% dividend yield. Margin of safety is limited because the price sits near the top of its 52-week range and already reflects stability, dividend growth, and recent momentum. Upside depends mainly on multiple expansion, rate-driven NIM improvement, revenue recovery, or successful Evans Bank accretion rather than organic compounding.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current price | $52.91 close on August 3, 2026 | Google Finance NBTB quote | August 4, 2026 |
| Verified market capitalization | $2.75 billion using $52.91 price and 52.01 million shares | Google Finance and financial_rigor.py market cap check | August 4, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 52.01 million common shares | Google Finance summary data | August 4, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | $723.8 million, cross-checked against Yahoo Finance | Google Finance income statement and Yahoo Finance | August 4, 2026 |
| TTM net income to common | $214.2 million | Google Finance income statement and Yahoo Finance | August 4, 2026 |
| TTM EPS | $4.09 per Google Finance, $4.00 diluted per Yahoo Finance | Google Finance statistics and Yahoo Finance | August 4, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 results | $180.6 million revenue (below $188.65 million estimate), $53.0 million net income, $1.01 EPS, reported July 28, 2026 | Google Finance earnings data | August 4, 2026 |
| Dividend | Quarterly dividend $0.40, 8.1% increase approved July 28, 2026, forward yield 3.02%, ex-dividend September 1, 2026 | Google Finance summary data | August 4, 2026 |
| Total assets and equity | $16.2 billion total assets, $1.91 billion total equity (Q1 2026) | Wikipedia NBT Bank page | August 4, 2026 |
| Total cash (mrq) | $294.7 million | Yahoo Finance statistics for NBTB | August 4, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | 12.95x TTM PE, 1.44x PB, 3.80x price to revenue, 7.73% earnings yield, 3.02% dividend yield, 11.1% ROE per financial_rigor.py | Google Finance and financial_rigor.py valuation verification | August 4, 2026 |
| Analyst coverage | 4 analysts: 2 Buy, 2 Hold. 12-month price targets $54.00 to $59.00, average $56.00 (KBW $54.00, Stephens $55.00, Piper Sandler $56.00, D.A. Davidson $59.00) | Google Finance analyst ratings | August 4, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 52-week range $39.20 to $54.48, beta 0.48, average volume 433,000 shares | Google Finance statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Branches and footprint | 176 branches in NY, PA, VT, MA, NH, ME, CT | Wikipedia NBT Bank page | August 4, 2026 |
This NBTB AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Forecast scenarios are based on public data available at the cutoff date and can be wrong if Northeast economic conditions, interest rates, CRE credit costs, deposit competition, Evans Bank integration outcomes, revenue growth, valuation multiples, or market conditions change.
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