MYR Group Inc. research snapshot
MYRG AI stock analysis currently reads MYR Group as a high-growth specialty electrical contractor riding strong tailwinds from transmission and distribution (T&D) modernization, data center construction, and grid reliability spending. At the July 12, 2026 data cutoff, MYRG traded at $419.34 with verified market capitalization near $6.53 billion. The analysis is constructive on the business momentum, low leverage, and end-market demand, but cautious on the premium valuation at 46x TTM earnings and the cyclical nature of construction activity. This page is for informational use only and is not investment advice.
Current price
$419.34
Market cap
$6.53 billion verified and reported
AI score
68 / 100
Rating
High-growth specialty electrical contractor with strong end-market demand, low leverage, and premium valuation
Trend status
Bullish year-to-date (+91.9%) but off 16.7% from the 52-week high, trading in a pullback from June 2026 peak
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | MYR Group provides electrical construction services that are essential to utility grid reliability, data center power delivery, and infrastructure modernization. Customer need is durable because electricity infrastructure requires ongoing maintenance, upgrade, and expansion regardless of the economic cycle. | Medium-high |
| Moat | The moat comes from specialized workforce, safety record, long-standing utility relationships, licensing, bonding capacity, and geographic reach. However, the construction industry is fragmented, and competitors like Quanta Services (PWR), EMCOR (EME), MasTec (MTZ), and Primoris (PRIM) compete for similar projects. | Medium |
| Management | CEO Clive Lewin and the leadership team have grown backlog significantly, maintained low leverage, and delivered strong operational results. Management should be evaluated on backlog conversion, margin execution, safety metrics, project win rates, and capital allocation priorities including potential M&A. | Medium |
| Financial trend | TTM revenue of approximately $3.82 billion grew from $3.66 billion in FY2025, with Q1 2026 up 20% YoY. Net income TTM of $141.9 million and EPS of $9.07 reflect strong operational leverage. The company carries minimal debt (D/E 8.75%) and has a 21.32% ROE. | Medium-high |
| Valuation | At $419.34, MYRG trades at 46.2x TTM PE, 28.7x P/FCF, 9.9x book, and 1.7x sales. The three-year scenario model using $9.07 EPS produced bear, base, and bull areas near $163, $286, and $483, suggesting the current price discounts substantial growth expectations. | Medium |
| Technical trend | MYRG rallied from $171.51 (52-week low) to $503.57 (52-week high), then pulled back 16.7% to $419.34. Support near $400 and the 50-day MA zone, with resistance near $460-480 and the 52-week high. | Medium |
| Risk level | Main risks include premium valuation (46x earnings), cyclical construction spending, labor availability and wage inflation, project delays or cancellations, customer concentration, raw material costs, and potential mean reversion in a stock that has rallied 129% in one year. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for descriptive facts and audited calculations, medium for forward price ranges and margin trajectory analysis. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Low to medium certainty. MYRG benefits from strong secular tailwinds and a clean balance sheet, but the stock already prices in high growth expectations, and construction earnings can be volatile quarter to quarter. | Low to medium |
MYRG AI stock forecast
The MYRG AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $419.34 price, TTM EPS of $9.07, and forward consensus estimates near $12.48. The audited three-year framework produced a bearish area near $163, a base area near $286, and a bullish area near $483.
$430 to $540
More likely if revenue growth sustains above 15%, T&D and data center demand accelerates, margins expand through operating leverage, the company wins large-scale projects, labor availability improves, and the market values MYRG near 35x forward earnings.
$280 to $380
More likely if revenue grows near 8-10%, margins normalize at current levels, backlog conversion proceeds on schedule, competition remains rational, and the market values MYRG near 25x forward earnings.
$150 to $200
More likely if a recession reduces construction spending, projects are delayed or canceled, labor costs or material prices compress margins, the T&D cycle peaks, or a major project goes wrong and triggers a derating to 18x earnings.
MYRG AI technical analysis
MYRG AI technical analysis is cautious after the stock declined 16.7% from its 52-week high of $503.57 to the current $419.34 level. As of the July 12, 2026 data cutoff, the stock was in a pullback within a long-term uptrend, with momentum fading from overbought conditions in June 2026.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $419.34 | The July 10, 2026 market close at $419.34 is 16.7% below the 52-week high. |
| Near support | $400.00 | Round-number support near $400; a close below this level would signal further weakness. |
| 50-day moving average | Estimated near $420 to $440 | The price was testing the estimated 50-day MA; holding above is key for short-term stability. |
| 200-day moving average | Estimated near $300 to $330 | The 200-day MA is well below current price, indicating the long-term trend is still bullish. |
| Near resistance | $460.00 to $480.00 | Resistance sits in the zone between the recent breakdown and the 52-week high. |
| 52-week high | $503.57 | The June 30, 2026 high is the ceiling; reclaiming it would signal a resumption of the uptrend. |
| 52-week low | $171.51 | The September 2025 low is deep structural support far below current price. |
| Momentum | RSI was likely declining from overbought toward 50 | Momentum is fading after the sharp rally; the pullback may have further to run before finding a floor. |
| Volume | Moderate volume during the pullback | Volume was below the peak seen during the June 2026 rally, suggesting profit-taking rather than panic selling. |
| Volatility | Elevated for a construction stock | MYRG has a beta of 1.31 and can make sharp moves around earnings reports, project announcements, and quarterly backlog updates. |
| Invalidation | Close below $350 | A decisive close below $350 would break below major support levels and signal a deeper correction. |
MYRG AI trading strategy
The MYRG AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework for monitoring a high-growth construction stock with premium valuation and cyclical exposure. It is not personalized advice and should be paired with live price data, backlog trends, margin analysis, and a defined invalidation level.
Watch for MYRG to stabilize above $420 and reclaim the 50-day MA with improving volume. Confirmation should include strong backlog reports, maintained or raised guidance, and no negative macro signals for construction spending.
If the stock breaks below $400 on above-average volume, or if backlog growth slows meaningfully, reduce exposure and reassess the trend setup.
If MYRG pulls back toward $350 to $380, compare the valuation against historical ranges, check the backlog trend, assess margin trajectory, and review labor availability and material cost trends before assuming support holds.
Do not buy the pullback solely because the stock has rallied in the past. Cyclical construction stocks can have deep corrections that last months. A maximum loss rule is essential.
Track quarterly backlog (growth, composition, margin profile), revenue growth, gross margin trends, EBITDA margin, EPS vs. consensus, free cash flow conversion, DSO, and labor availability. Use quarter-end to assess earnings quality.
Reduce confidence if backlog growth decelerates for two consecutive quarters, margins compress from wage/materials inflation, or management lowers guidance citing project delays or competition.
Investment research summary
MYR Group is paid by utilities, data center developers, and industrial facility owners to build, maintain, and upgrade electrical infrastructure. Customers pay because the work requires specialized labor, safety training, licensing, bonding, and project management that most owners cannot self-perform.
MYRGs moat is built on its specialized workforce, long-term utility relationships, safety record, geographic diversification, and bonding capacity. However, the construction industry is highly fragmented, and competitors with similar capabilities can win work through aggressive pricing or local relationships.
The thesis fails if: (1) construction spending cycles down in a recession, (2) the T&D modernization wave peaks earlier than expected, (3) labor shortages drive wage inflation that compresses project margins, (4) a major project suffers significant cost overruns or delays, or (5) the premium multiple contracts as growth decelerates.
Management should be judged by backlog growth and composition, project margin execution, safety performance, capital allocation (debt management, potential M&A), and the ability to attract and retain skilled labor in a tight market.
MYRG sits at the intersection of several secular trends: grid modernization and reliability spending, data center construction driven by AI and cloud computing, renewable energy interconnection, and electric vehicle charging infrastructure. These trends provide multi-year demand visibility, but construction activity remains sensitive to the economic cycle.
At 46x TTM PE and 28.7x P/FCF, MYRG trades at a premium that already reflects strong growth expectations. The three-year scenario model suggests the base case target near $286 is below the current price, indicating limited margin of safety. A meaningful pullback or sustained earnings growth above consensus would be needed to improve the risk/reward.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| MYRG price | $419.34 current market snapshot on July 10, 2026 | Financial market quote feed | July 12, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $6.53 billion verified as $419.34 x 15,570,000 shares, matching the reported market cap within 0.01% | financial_rigor.py market-cap verification | July 12, 2026 |
| Enterprise value | $6.43 billion (market cap + debt - cash) | Yahoo Finance quote page | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | Approximately $3.82 billion TTM, with FY2025 annual revenue of $3.66 billion | Yahoo Finance; Barchart | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM net income | Approximately $141.9 million TTM | Yahoo Finance statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM levered free cash flow | Approximately $227.8 million TTM, or about $14.63 per share | Yahoo Finance statistics; financial_rigor.py FCF calculation | July 12, 2026 |
| Cash and equivalents | $163.2 million (most recent quarter) | Yahoo Finance balance sheet | July 12, 2026 |
| Total debt/equity | 8.75% | Yahoo Finance statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Valuation math | 46.2x TTM PE, 28.7x P/FCF, 9.9x PB, 21.3% ROE from financial_rigor.py | financial_rigor.py valuation verification | July 12, 2026 |
| EPS | $9.07 TTM, with forward consensus estimate of $12.48 | Yahoo Finance; MarketBeat | July 12, 2026 |
| Dividend | None. MYR Group does not pay a dividend. | Yahoo Finance quote page | July 12, 2026 |
| Three-year scenario model | Bear $163, base $286, bull $483 using $9.07 EPS, 0-15% growth, and 18-35x terminal PE | financial_rigor.py three-scenario model | July 12, 2026 |
| Technical trend | Price near $419.34, declined 16.7% from 52-week high of $503.57, support near $400 | Third-party technical quote pages | July 12, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 15.57 million shares | Barchart; cross-validated with MarketBeat | July 12, 2026 |
This MYRG AI stock analysis is an informational research tool, not investment advice, tax advice, legal advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available data as of July 12, 2026 and may be wrong. Always verify live prices, filings, risk factors, and your own constraints before making financial decisions.
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