MYR Group Inc. research snapshot
MYRG AI stock analysis as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff reads MYR Group as a high-growth specialty electrical contractor that delivered record second quarter results and record backlog, but whose shares fell sharply through July before and around that report. The stock closed at $333.22 on July 31, 2026, with a pre-market print of $331.65 on August 3, and a market capitalization near $5.19 billion, verified as $333.22 times 15.57 million shares and cross-validated across StockAnalysis.com, S&P Global Market Intelligence, Fiscal.ai, Barchart, Yahoo Finance, the Q2 2026 earnings release, and the Q2 2026 earnings call. The Q2 2026 report, released July 29, 2026, beat expectations with record revenue of $1.08 billion up 20% year over year, EPS of $3.17 up 86% from $1.70, record net income of $50 million, record EBITDA of $85 million, gross margin of 13.2% versus 11.5% a year earlier, and record total backlog of $3.16 billion up 20%, including $1.89 billion in Commercial and Industrial and $1.27 billion in Transmission and Distribution. Management closed the $328 million acquisition of Valley Electric and Comet Electric on July 1, funded with about $93 million of cash and $235 million of revolver borrowings, and expects roughly $250 million of revenue contribution in the second half of 2026 with earnings per share impact roughly neutral in the first year due to amortization. The stock fell from the June 30 record high of $503.57 to a closing low of $322.06 on July 29, roughly a 36% drawdown, on concerns about the acquisition, rising days sales outstanding, a negative free cash flow quarter, and a premium valuation, then recovered modestly to $333.22 after the beat. The AI score sits at 65 out of 100 with a rating of record second quarter and backlog with a now less extended valuation, offset by acquisition integration, working capital, and a sharp technical downtrend, because the operating momentum and demand tailwinds are real while the stock trades near base-case fair value and carries near-term cash flow and integration risks. This is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$333.22 at the July 31, 2026 close; $331.65 pre-market on August 3, 2026
Market cap
$5.19 billion
AI score
65 / 100
Rating
Record second quarter and backlog with a now less extended valuation, offset by acquisition integration, working capital, and a sharp technical downtrend
Trend status
In a steep downtrend off the June 30 record high of $503.57, down about 36% to $322.06 before the July 29 earnings, now $333.22 below the 20-day, 50-day, and 100-day moving averages with RSI near 30
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | MYR Group builds, maintains, and upgrades electrical infrastructure for utilities, data center developers, and industrial facility owners. The second quarter delivered record revenue of $1.08 billion up 20%, record net income of $50 million, record EBITDA of $85 million, and record backlog of $3.16 billion up 20%, reflecting essential work that utilities and facility owners must continue regardless of the economic cycle. | Medium-high |
| Moat | The moat comes from a specialized workforce, safety record, licensing, bonding capacity, long-standing utility relationships with over 90% repeat customers, and geographic reach. However, the construction industry is fragmented, and competitors like Quanta Services (PWR), EMCOR (EME), MasTec (MTZ), and Primoris (PRIM) compete for similar projects. | Medium |
| Management | President and CEO Rick Swartz and the leadership team delivered a strong first half with margin expansion and two Xcel Energy transmission awards worth over $200 million combined, and closed the disciplined $328 million Valley Electric and Comet Electric acquisition with defined integration plans. Management should be judged on integration execution, the expected $250 million of second half revenue contribution, working capital and DSO management, backlog conversion, and capital allocation after the $235 million revolver drawdown. | Medium |
| Financial trend | TTM revenue is approximately $4.01 billion up 16.06%, TTM net income is $165.29 million up 116.4%, and TTM EPS is $10.54. The company carries $137.87 million of cash, $67.10 million of total debt, a net cash position near $70.77 million, ROE near 24.7%, and ROIC near 25.6%. The watchpoint is that Q2 operating cash flow was only $3 million versus $33 million a year earlier and free cash flow was negative $26 million on tax timing, billing timing, and higher capex, with DSO expected to rise from the mid-50s toward the low-to-mid-60s. | Medium-high |
| Valuation | At $333.22, MYRG trades at 31.61x TTM PE, 27.77x forward PE, 26.83x P/FCF, 6.88x book, 1.30x sales, and 17.33x EV/EBITDA. The three-year scenario model using TTM EPS of $10.54 produced bear, base, and bull targets near $195, $326, and $510, so the current price is close to the base case and above the $433 average analyst target implies only about 30% upside for a stock in a clear downtrend. | Medium |
| Technical trend | MYRG peaked at $503.57 on June 30, 2026, then fell about 36% to a closing low of $322.06 on July 29 before recovering to $333.22 on July 31. Price is below the 20-day, 50-day, and 100-day moving averages near $387, $428, and $386, above the 200-day average near $311, with 14-day RSI near 29.6 to 29.8 and 14-day ADX near 39 confirming a strong downtrend. | Medium |
| Risk level | Main risks include acquisition integration for Valley Electric and Comet Electric, the working capital headwind from rising DSO and a negative Q2 free cash flow, cyclical construction spending, labor availability and wage inflation, project execution on large fixed-price jobs, customer concentration, raw material and equipment costs, and the high volatility of a stock with 14-day historic volatility near 52% and a beta near 1.31. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for descriptive facts, Q2 2026 results, backlog, and audited calculations, medium for forward price ranges and margin and integration trajectory analysis. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Low to medium certainty. MYRG benefits from record backlog and secular demand tailwinds, but the stock trades near base-case fair value, is in a sharp technical downtrend, and carries working capital, acquisition integration, and cyclical execution risks. | Low to medium |
MYRG AI stock forecast
The MYRG AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the July 31, 2026 close of $333.22. TTM EPS is $10.54, forward consensus EPS is near $11.82 for fiscal 2026 and $13.83 for fiscal 2027, and the analyst consensus price target is $433 with a range of $295 to $564. The audited three-year framework, using TTM EPS of $10.54 with growth of 20%, 12%, and 5% and exit multiples of 28x, 22x, and 16x, produced a bull area near $510, a base area near $326, and a bear area near $195.
$430 to $540
More likely if revenue growth sustains near 15% or above, T&D large-project awards keep flowing including the more than $200 million of Xcel Energy transmission work, data center and grid modernization demand holds, Valley Electric and Comet Electric add the expected $250 million of second half revenue and integrate cleanly, margins stay in the upper half of guidance, and the market holds a 26x to 30x forward multiple.
$280 to $380
More likely if revenue grows near 13% to 15% including the Valley contribution, operating margins land in the middle of guidance (C&I 6% to 9%, T&D 8% to 11%), backlog converts on schedule, the DSO and free cash flow headwind normalizes through the second half, and the market applies a 20x to 24x forward multiple.
$150 to $210
More likely if the construction cycle cools, acquisition integration disappoints or backlog margin pressure emerges, labor or material costs compress project margins, working capital absorbs more cash than expected, a large project suffers cost overruns, or the premium multiple derates toward 16x as growth decelerates.
MYRG AI technical analysis
MYRG AI technical analysis is clearly bearish in the near term as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff. The stock fell about 36% from the June 30 record high of $503.57 to a closing low of $322.06 on July 29, bounced modestly after the Q2 earnings beat, and closed at $333.22 on July 31. Price is below the 20-day, 50-day, and 100-day moving averages near $387, $428, and $386, above the 200-day average near $311, with 14-day RSI near 30 in oversold territory and 14-day ADX near 39 confirming a strong downtrend. Because this static page does not fetch request-time chart data, moving averages and momentum should be confirmed in a charting tool before use.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $333.22 | Close on July 31, 2026, with a pre-market print of $331.65 on August 3, 2026. The 52-week range is $171.51 to $503.57. |
| Near support | $310 to $315 | The 200-day moving average near $311 and the $310 to $315 zone mark the first major support. The July 29 intraday low was $315.40. |
| Round number support | $300.00 | A close below $310 puts the round $300 level in play. Treat this as a planning zone, not a guaranteed floor. |
| 20-day moving average | Near $387 | Barchart 20-day moving average. Price needs to reclaim this level to slow the downtrend. |
| 50-day moving average | Near $428 | Barchart shows about $428.22 and StockAnalysis shows $430.50. This is well above price and marks the first major downtrend resistance. |
| 100-day moving average | Near $386 | Barchart 100-day moving average, in line with the 20-day average and below the 50-day average. |
| 200-day moving average | Near $311 | Barchart shows about $311.49 and StockAnalysis shows $310.87. Price is just above this level, which is the key long-term trend support. |
| Near resistance | $340 to $355 | The July 30 to 31 bounce highs near $349 and the gap area between $340 and $355 form the first resistance band. |
| Stronger resistance | $380 to $400 | The breakdown zone from mid-July sits between roughly $380 and $400. Reclaiming this area with volume would signal a trend change attempt. |
| 52-week high | $503.57 | Set on June 30, 2026. The stock is now about 34% below this level. |
| 52-week low | $171.51 | The September 2025 low is deep structural support far below current price. |
| Momentum | Oversold but still negative | 14-day RSI near 29.6 on Barchart and 29.8 on StockAnalysis is oversold, but 14-day ADX near 39 with -DI above +DI confirms the downtrend is still in control. Oversold conditions can persist in a falling market. |
| Volume | Elevated during the decline | 20-day average volume is near 299,000 shares, with about 671,000 shares traded on July 30 and 499,000 on July 29 as the stock moved sharply. Selling volume has been present. |
| Volatility | High | 14-day average true range is about $22.90, roughly 6.9% of price, with 14-day historic volatility near 52%. Beta is about 1.31, so the stock moves more than the market. |
| Invalidation | Close below $300 | A decisive close below $300 would break the 200-day moving average and the round number, opening downside toward $280 and then the $250 area. |
MYRG AI trading strategy
The MYRG AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework for monitoring a high-growth electrical contractor that is in a sharp downtrend with oversold conditions. It is not personalized advice and should be paired with live price data, the next earnings report expected around October 28, 2026, backlog trends, margin and DSO analysis, and a defined invalidation level.
Wait for MYRG to stabilize above the 200-day moving average near $311 and reclaim the 20-day average near $387 with improving volume, or build a base above $310 to $330. Confirmation should include continued backlog growth, margins in the guided ranges, no further DSO deterioration, and clean integration of Valley Electric and Comet Electric.
If the stock breaks below $300 on above-average volume, or if DSO keeps rising and free cash flow stays negative, reduce exposure and reassess. Do not treat the oversold RSI as a timing signal by itself.
If MYRG holds $310 to $330 near the 200-day moving average, compare the valuation against its own history and sector peers, check the backlog trend and the Q3 report due around October 28, 2026, review DSO and free cash flow, and assess the Valley integration progress before assuming support holds.
Do not buy the pullback solely because the stock is down 36% or RSI is near 30. Construction stocks can have deep corrections that last months. A maximum loss rule and a clear invalidation below $300 are essential.
Track quarterly backlog (growth, composition, margin profile), revenue growth, gross margin, segment operating margins against the C&I 6% to 9% and T&D 8% to 11% ranges, EPS versus consensus, DSO and working capital, free cash flow conversion, the $250 million second half Valley revenue contribution, and leverage after the $235 million revolver drawdown.
Reduce confidence if backlog growth decelerates, DSO rises faster than guided, free cash flow stays negative for consecutive quarters, integration costs exceed expectations, or management lowers guidance citing project delays or competition.
Investment research summary
MYR Group is paid by utilities, data center developers, and industrial facility owners to build, maintain, and upgrade electrical infrastructure. Customers pay because the work requires specialized labor, safety training, licensing, bonding, and project management that most owners cannot self-perform, and over 90% of the business comes from repeat customers.
MYRGs moat is built on its specialized workforce, safety record, long-term utility relationships, licensing, bonding capacity, and geographic diversification. However, the construction industry is highly fragmented, and competitors such as Quanta Services, EMCOR, MasTec, and Primoris can win work through aggressive pricing or local relationships.
The thesis fails if: (1) construction spending cycles down in a recession, (2) the T&D modernization and data center wave peaks earlier than expected, (3) the $328 million Valley Electric and Comet Electric acquisition integrates poorly or destroys margins, (4) rising DSO and negative free cash flow persist, (5) a major fixed-price project suffers significant cost overruns, or (6) the premium multiple contracts as growth decelerates, as it already started to do in the July selloff.
Management should be judged by backlog growth and composition, project margin execution, the integration and $250 million second half contribution from Valley Electric and Comet Electric, working capital and DSO management, safety performance, and capital allocation after funding part of the acquisition with $235 million of revolver borrowings.
MYRG sits at the intersection of several secular trends: grid modernization and reliability spending, data center construction driven by AI and cloud computing, renewable energy interconnection, electric vehicle charging infrastructure, and industrial and transportation electrification. Management cited the Deloitte Research Center on utility transmission investment and ConstructConnect on elevated U.S. data center construction starts, but construction activity remains sensitive to the economic cycle.
At 31.61x TTM PE and 27.77x forward PE, MYRG trades below the extreme multiple seen at the June 30 peak but still above its own long-run history and most sector peers. The three-year scenario model puts the base case near $326, slightly below the current price, and the bear case near $195, which means the market already discounts continued growth and the margin of safety is thin. A further pullback or sustained earnings growth above consensus would be needed to improve the risk/reward.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| MYRG price | $333.22 at the July 31, 2026 close; $331.65 pre-market on August 3, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com, CBOE real-time price | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $5.19 billion, verified as $333.22 x 15.57 million shares, deviation 0.03% | financial_rigor.py market cap verification, StockAnalysis.com | August 3, 2026 |
| Enterprise value | $5.12 billion (market cap + debt - cash) | StockAnalysis.com statistics, S&P Global Market Intelligence | August 3, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 15.57 million shares | StockAnalysis.com statistics, S&P Global Market Intelligence | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | Approximately $4.01 billion, up 16.06% | StockAnalysis.com financials, Fiscal.ai, Yahoo Finance | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM net income | Approximately $165.29 million, up 116.4% | StockAnalysis.com financials, Fiscal.ai, Yahoo Finance | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM EPS | $10.54 | StockAnalysis.com statistics, Fiscal.ai, Yahoo Finance | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 revenue and EPS | Record revenue of $1.08 billion up 20% year over year, beating the $995.74 million consensus; EPS of $3.17 up 86% from $1.70, beating the $2.62 consensus by $0.55 | Q2 2026 earnings release, MarketBeat earnings summary, TheFly news summary | August 3, 2026 |
| Record backlog | $3.16 billion up 20% year over year as of June 30, 2026, consisting of $1.89 billion C&I and $1.27 billion T&D | Q2 2026 earnings call transcript, StockAnalysis.com | August 3, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | 31.61x TTM PE, 27.77x forward PE, 26.83x P/FCF, 6.88x book, 1.30x sales, 17.33x EV/EBITDA, 1.59x PEG | StockAnalysis.com statistics, S&P Global Market Intelligence | August 3, 2026 |
| Cash and total debt | Cash of $137.87 million, total debt of $67.10 million, net cash of $70.77 million or $4.55 per share as of June 30, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com balance sheet, Fiscal.ai | August 3, 2026 |
| Free cash flow (TTM) | $193.36 million TTM, or $12.42 per share; Q2 2026 free cash flow was negative $26 million on tax and billing timing and higher capex | StockAnalysis.com cash flow, Fiscal.ai | August 3, 2026 |
| Return metrics | ROE near 24.71%, ROIC near 25.59%, gross margin 12.49% TTM, operating margin near 5.5% to 5.6% TTM | StockAnalysis.com statistics, S&P Global Market Intelligence | August 3, 2026 |
| 52-week range | $171.51 to $503.57 | StockAnalysis.com quote summary, S&P Global Market Intelligence | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical levels | 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages near $387, $428, $386, and $311; 14-day RSI near 29.6 to 29.8; 14-day ADX near 39 | Barchart technical analysis, StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy, 7 analysts, average price target of $433 with a range of $295 to $564; Baird lowered its target to $375 from $450 on July 30, Clear Street kept Buy at $530, Cantor Fitzgerald kept Buy at $564, Stifel kept Buy at $503, Oppenheimer assumed coverage with a Perform rating, and Argus cut its rating to Hold with a $358 target | StockAnalysis.com analyst forecast, Yahoo Finance analyst insights | August 3, 2026 |
| Short interest | 784,305 shares shorted, 5.04% of shares outstanding, 2.48 days to cover | StockAnalysis.com statistics, S&P Global Market Intelligence | August 3, 2026 |
| Valley Electric and Comet Electric acquisition | $328 million initial cash consideration, closed July 1, 2026, funded with about $93 million of cash and $235 million of revolver borrowings; about $250 million of revenue expected in the second half of 2026 with EPS impact roughly neutral in year one | Q2 2026 earnings call transcript | August 3, 2026 |
| Three-year scenario model | Bear $195, base $326, bull $510 using $10.54 EPS, 5% to 20% growth, and 16x to 28x terminal PE | financial_rigor.py three-scenario model | August 3, 2026 |
This MYRG AI stock analysis is an informational research tool, not investment advice, tax advice, legal advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available data as of August 3, 2026 and may be wrong. Always verify live prices, SEC filings, risk factors, and your own constraints before making financial decisions.
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