MasTec, Inc. research snapshot
MTZ AI stock analysis currently sees MasTec as a large infrastructure contractor benefiting from power delivery, clean energy, pipeline, communications, and data-center related work. Q1 2026 revenue rose 34.5% to $3.83 billion, adjusted EBITDA rose 73.3% to $283.6 million, and 18-month backlog reached $20.33 billion. The central trade-off is that the July 8 price of $382.90 values that growth at roughly 66.9x trailing EPS and 116.4x trailing free cash flow per share. The MTZ AI stock forecast uses scenarios, not a precise price prediction.
Current price
$382.90
Market cap
$29.86 billion verified market cap
AI score
68 / 100
Rating
Strong infrastructure demand and improving execution, with a valuation and project-risk constraint
Trend status
Long-term uptrend above the 200-day average, with elevated volatility after a sharp advance
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 8, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | MasTec engineers, builds, installs, maintains, and upgrades communications, clean-energy, power-delivery, pipeline, and other infrastructure across the United States and Canada. | High |
| Moat | Scale, skilled field labor, customer relationships, equipment, safety qualifications, local operating know-how, and a broad service footprint matter, but the business remains competitive and project intensive. | Medium-high |
| Management | Jose Mas has been CEO since 2007 and the Mas family retains meaningful ownership. The key test is whether growth, acquisitions, and capital allocation preserve returns while leverage stays controlled. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue was $14.30 billion and net income was $422.0 million. Q1 2026 revenue reached $3.83 billion, GAAP net income was $69.7 million, and backlog was $20.33 billion. | High |
| Valuation | At $382.90, MTZ is near 66.9x trailing EPS, 9.0x book value, and 116.4x trailing free cash flow per share. The multiple assumes sustained earnings improvement. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | The price is near the 50-day moving-average reference around $378 and remains above the 200-day reference around $282, but the July 8 6.7% rebound highlights high volatility. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risks include project cost overruns, contract-estimate revisions, customer and policy exposure, working-capital swings, debt, interest expense, labor constraints, and a premium valuation. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Historical and reported-data confidence is high. Confidence in future market returns is lower because valuation, timing, and construction execution are uncertain. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | MTZ has strong operating momentum, but it is not a high-certainty bargain at a premium earnings and free-cash-flow valuation. | Medium |
MTZ AI stock forecast
The MTZ AI stock forecast uses the July 8, 2026 price reference of $382.90, trailing EPS of $5.72, and a three-year earnings multiple framework. The audited model produced a bearish value near $165.50, a base value near $444.80, and a bullish value near $914.80 before any dividend effect. These are scenario ranges, not promises.
$850 to $980
More likely if backlog converts on schedule, clean energy, power delivery, pipeline, communications, and data-center projects sustain high activity, margins improve, leverage trends lower, and investors keep paying a premium multiple.
$410 to $480
More likely if EPS compounds near the model base case, management meets its 2026 revenue and EBITDA outlook, project execution stays disciplined, and the valuation settles near a mid-40s earnings multiple.
$150 to $190
More likely if backlog conversion slows, project mix or cost estimates weaken margins, customers defer infrastructure spending, interest or debt pressure rises, or the market re-rates MTZ toward a mid-20s earnings multiple.
MTZ AI technical analysis
MTZ AI technical analysis is constructive but volatile as of the July 8, 2026 cutoff. MTZ closed at $382.90 after trading from $366.69 to $386.98 on 1.53 million shares. A current technical screen listed a 50-day exponential moving average near $377.71 and a 200-day simple moving average near $282.36. These are reference levels, not certainty about the next move.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $382.90 | July 8, 2026 closing price from StockAnalysis historical market data. |
| Immediate support | $366 to $378 | This area combines the July 8 intraday low with the 50-day moving-average reference. |
| Deeper support | $348 to $350 | This zone includes the July 7 intraday low and is the next visible support area after a failed 50-day hold. |
| Near resistance | $390 to $430 | This range covers the July 6 high near $390 and the June 29 to June 30 closing area near $429. |
| Moving averages | 50-day EMA near $377.71, 200-day SMA near $282.36 | Price is close to the intermediate trend reference and remains well above the longer-term trend reference. |
| Momentum | Positive long-term structure, choppy short-term action | The stock rebounded 6.7% on July 8 after a 5.7% decline on July 7, which signals elevated near-term volatility. |
| Volume | 1.53 million shares on July 8 | Volume was above the prior session and should be monitored on moves through resistance or support. |
| Volatility | High, beta 1.77 | MTZ can move sharply as infrastructure-cycle expectations and its valuation change. |
| Invalidation | Sustained close below $348 | A decisive break below the July 7 low would weaken the near-term trend-following setup and shift focus toward lower support. |
MTZ AI trading strategy
The MTZ AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It combines technical levels with backlog conversion, segment margins, operating cash flow, debt, interest expense, and changes to management guidance.
Watch for MTZ to hold the $366 to $378 support area and reclaim $390, then assess whether a move toward $429 is accompanied by resilient backlog, margin, and guidance signals.
Reduce setup confidence after a sustained break below $348 or if management commentary points to weaker project timing, execution, or customer demand.
If MTZ retests support, compare the lower price with updated EPS, free cash flow, debt, backlog quality, and peer infrastructure-contractor multiples before treating the pullback as an opportunity.
Do not assume a lower price is attractive if project losses, contract-estimate revisions, deteriorating cash conversion, or leverage pressure appear in filings.
Track backlog by segment, clean-energy and data-center activity, power-delivery and pipeline margins, cash from operations, capital expenditures, net debt, customer concentration, and 2026 guidance updates.
Position sizing should reflect that MTZ is an execution-sensitive contractor with high market expectations, not a predictable subscription business.
Investment research summary
Customers pay MasTec to engineer, construct, install, maintain, and upgrade critical communications, energy, utility, pipeline, and industrial infrastructure that requires specialized field execution and scale.
MasTec benefits from scale, customer relationships, skilled labor, equipment, safety and project qualifications, geographic coverage, and experience across several infrastructure verticals. These advantages help win and execute work, but competitors can still contest projects and pricing.
The thesis fails if backlog turns into lower-margin work, contract cost estimates deteriorate, labor or materials disrupt schedules, customers delay spending, policy support changes, debt constrains flexibility, or the valuation falls faster than earnings grow.
Jose Mas has led the company since 2007, and the Mas family retains substantial ownership. The management question is whether capital allocation, acquisitions, and operating discipline can convert a large backlog into durable returns without raising balance-sheet risk.
Grid expansion, renewables, transmission and distribution upgrades, communications networks, natural-gas infrastructure, reshoring, and data-center construction can support demand. The counterweight is that infrastructure spending, permitting, regulation, and project timing remain cyclical and policy-sensitive.
At $382.90, the market is pricing in continued earnings and margin improvement. Margin of safety would improve if cash conversion and backlog quality remain strong while the price or valuation multiple becomes less demanding.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| MTZ quote reference | $382.90 close on July 8, 2026, up 6.70% on the day | StockAnalysis MTZ price history | July 8, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $29.86 billion reported, $29.86 billion calculated from $382.90 x 77.99 million shares | Pineify financial_rigor.py and StockAnalysis | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and net income | $14.30 billion revenue and $422.0 million net income | MasTec FY2025 Form 10-K, StockAnalysis, and Macrotrends | July 8, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 revenue and earnings | $3.829 billion revenue, $69.7 million GAAP net income, $0.77 GAAP diluted EPS, and $1.39 adjusted diluted EPS | MasTec Q1 2026 results release | July 8, 2026 |
| Backlog and full-year guidance | $20.328 billion 18-month backlog at March 31, 2026; 2026 guidance of $17.5 billion revenue, $1.5 billion adjusted EBITDA, and $6.77 GAAP diluted EPS | MasTec Q1 2026 results release and guidance summary | July 8, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | $273.7 million cash and cash equivalents, $2.532 billion total debt net of deferred financing costs, and about $2.259 billion net debt at March 31, 2026 | MasTec Q1 2026 Form 10-Q and StockAnalysis | July 8, 2026 |
| TTM valuation metrics | 66.94x EPS, 9.02x book value, 116.38x free cash flow per share, and 0.00% dividend yield | Pineify financial_rigor.py and StockAnalysis statistics | July 8, 2026 |
| Technical references | 50-day EMA near $377.71, 200-day SMA near $282.36, beta 1.77, and 52-week range $160.08 to $441.43 | TipRanks technical screen and StockAnalysis overview | July 8, 2026 |
| Management ownership | Executive officers and directors as a group beneficially owned about 21.4% as of the 2026 proxy reference date | MasTec 2026 definitive proxy statement | July 8, 2026 |
This MTZ AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future performance. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of July 8, 2026 and can be wrong if fundamentals, valuation multiples, market conditions, or source data change.
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