MasTec, Inc. research snapshot
MTZ AI stock analysis sees MasTec as a large North American infrastructure contractor benefiting from power delivery, clean energy, pipeline, communications, and data-center related demand. Q2 2026 revenue rose 23% to $4.374 billion, adjusted EBITDA rose 40% to $384 million, and backlog reached a record $21.4 billion, while the company raised full-year 2026 revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance. The market still sold the stock down 18.91% on July 31 because 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $9.30 and Q3 guidance came in below analyst consensus, with communications revenue cut for the second half. The July 31 close of $263.10 values MTZ near 42x trailing EPS and roughly 85x trailing free cash flow. The MTZ AI stock forecast uses scenarios, not a precise price prediction.
Current price
$263.10
Market cap
$20.86 billion verified market cap
AI score
62 / 100
Rating
Record backlog and raised 2026 revenue guidance, with near-term communications weakness and a sharp post-earnings repricing
Trend status
Downtrend after the July 31 selloff; MTZ closed below its 200-day moving average with elevated volatility
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | MasTec engineers, builds, installs, maintains, and upgrades communications, clean-energy, power-delivery, pipeline, and other infrastructure across the United States and Canada. | High |
| Moat | Scale, skilled field labor, customer relationships, equipment, safety qualifications, local operating know-how, and a broad service footprint matter, but the business remains competitive and project intensive. | Medium-high |
| Management | Jose Mas has been CEO since 2007 and insiders own about 21.3% of shares. The key test is whether the Superior acquisition integrates well, leverage stays controlled, and communications execution recovers. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Q2 2026 revenue was $4.374 billion, adjusted EBITDA $384 million, adjusted EPS $2.22, and backlog a record $21.4 billion. Full-year 2026 guidance was raised to $18.2 billion revenue and $1.6 billion adjusted EBITDA. | High |
| Valuation | At $263.10, MTZ is near 41.89x trailing EPS, 5.91x book value, and 85x trailing free cash flow. The forward multiple is lower, but the stock is not cheap on trailing cash flow. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | The price broke below its 200-day moving-average reference near $297 and now sits near $263, with a 50-day reference near $366 and an RSI near 32 signaling oversold conditions. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risks include second-half 2026 communications weakness, project cost overruns and estimate revisions, customer and policy exposure, working-capital swings, debt, Superior integration, and a premium trailing valuation. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Historical and reported-data confidence is high. Confidence in future market returns is lower because valuation, timing, and construction execution are uncertain. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | MTZ has strong operating momentum and record backlog, but the post-earnings repricing shows it is not a high-certainty position at current levels. | Medium-low |
MTZ AI stock forecast
The MTZ AI stock forecast uses the July 31, 2026 price reference of $263.10, the updated 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $9.30, and a three-year earnings multiple framework. The audited model produced a bearish value near $155, a base value near $306, and a bullish value near $546 before any dividend effect. These are scenario ranges, not promises.
$520 to $580
More likely if backlog converts on schedule, data-center, power delivery, clean energy, and pipeline demand stays strong, Superior integrates well, communications recovers in 2027, margins expand, and investors keep paying a high-teens to low-20s forward multiple.
$290 to $330
More likely if adjusted EPS compounds near the model base case, management delivers its raised 2026 revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance, Superior contributes as expected, and the market keeps a forward multiple in the high teens to low 20s.
$140 to $170
More likely if communications weakness persists, project mix or cost estimates weaken margins, customers defer spending, Superior integration disappoints, debt or interest pressure rises, or the market re-rates MTZ toward a mid-teens earnings multiple.
MTZ AI technical analysis
MTZ AI technical analysis turned bearish as of the July 31, 2026 cutoff. MTZ closed at $263.10, down 18.91% on the day, after trading from $259.25 to $281.87 on about 3.9 million shares. A current technical screen listed a 50-day moving average near $365.96 and a 200-day moving average near $297.04, meaning the price closed below both. These are reference levels, not certainty about the next move.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $263.10 | July 31, 2026 closing price from StockAnalysis market data, down 18.91% on the day. |
| Immediate support | $259 to $265 | This area combines the July 31 intraday low near $259.25 with the closing area and is the first support to watch. |
| Deeper support | $244 to $250 | A round-number zone below the July 31 low, with limited recent trading history to confirm it as a strong shelf. |
| Near resistance | $290 to $297 | This covers the 200-day moving-average reference near $297 and the July 31 opening gap zone. |
| Next resistance | $316 to $324 | This range covers the July 30 closing area near $324.44 and the July 31 gap-down zone. |
| Moving averages | 50-day MA near $365.96, 200-day MA near $297.04 | The price closed below both references after the July 31 breakdown, which changes the trend structure. |
| Momentum | Negative, RSI near 32 | The 18.91% single-day decline pushed momentum readings to oversold territory, which can invite short-term bounces. |
| Volume | About 3.9 million shares on July 31 | Volume was near 3x the 20-day average, confirming institutional participation in the decline. |
| Volatility | High, beta 1.77 | MTZ can move sharply as infrastructure-cycle expectations, guidance, and its valuation change. |
| Invalidation | Sustained close below $259 | A decisive break below the July 31 low would weaken the mean-reversion setup and open a path toward lower support. |
MTZ AI trading strategy
The MTZ AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It combines technical levels with backlog conversion, segment margins, communications recovery, operating cash flow, debt, Superior integration, and changes to management guidance.
After the breakdown below the 200-day average, watch for MTZ to hold the $259 to $265 support area and reclaim $290 to $297 before treating the move as a new uptrend. A close back above $316 would add further confirmation.
Reduce setup confidence after a sustained break below $259 or if communications guidance, backlog quality, margins, or customer demand weaken further.
With the RSI near 32 and the price below the 200-day average, a short-term bounce is possible, but compare any rally with updated EPS, free cash flow, debt, backlog quality, and peer infrastructure-contractor multiples before acting.
Do not assume a lower price is attractive if project losses, contract-estimate revisions, weak cash conversion, or leverage pressure appear in filings.
Track backlog by segment, communications revenue and margin recovery, data-center and clean-energy activity, power-delivery and pipeline margins, cash from operations, capital expenditures, net debt, Superior integration, and Q3 and full-year guidance updates.
Position sizing should reflect that MTZ is an execution-sensitive contractor with high market expectations and a premium trailing valuation, not a predictable subscription business.
Investment research summary
Customers pay MasTec to engineer, construct, install, maintain, and upgrade critical communications, energy, utility, pipeline, and industrial infrastructure that requires specialized field execution and scale.
MasTec benefits from scale, customer relationships, skilled labor, equipment, safety and project qualifications, geographic coverage, and experience across several infrastructure verticals. These advantages help win and execute work, but competitors can still contest projects and pricing.
The thesis fails if backlog turns into lower-margin work, communications deferrals persist, contract cost estimates deteriorate, labor or materials disrupt schedules, customers delay spending, policy or permitting changes hurt projects, debt constrains flexibility, or the valuation falls faster than earnings grow.
Jose Mas has led the company since 2007, and insiders own roughly 21.3% of shares. The management question is whether the $1.65 billion Superior acquisition, capital allocation, and operating discipline can convert a record backlog into durable returns without raising balance-sheet risk.
Grid expansion, renewables, transmission and distribution upgrades, communications networks, natural-gas infrastructure, reshoring, and data-center construction can support demand. The counterweight is that infrastructure spending, permitting, regulation, and project timing remain cyclical and policy-sensitive.
At $263.10, MTZ trades near 42x trailing EPS and roughly 85x trailing free cash flow, with a lower forward multiple. Margin of safety would improve if cash conversion and backlog quality stay strong and the valuation multiple becomes less demanding.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| MTZ quote reference | $263.10 close on July 31, 2026, down 18.91% on the day after Q2 2026 results | StockAnalysis MTZ overview | July 31, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $20.86 billion reported, $20.86 billion calculated from $263.10 x 79.28 million shares | Pineify financial_rigor.py and StockAnalysis | July 31, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 results | $4.374 billion revenue up 23%, $384 million adjusted EBITDA up 40%, $2.22 adjusted EPS up 49%, and record backlog of $21.4 billion | MasTec Q2 2026 earnings release and conference call | July 30, 2026 |
| Updated full-year 2026 guidance | Revenue of $18.2 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $1.6 billion, and adjusted EPS of $9.30; Q3 2026 guidance of $4.9 billion revenue and $2.98 adjusted EPS | MasTec Q2 2026 earnings call | July 31, 2026 |
| Superior Group acquisition | Closed July 20, 2026 for $1.65 billion in cash and stock; full-service electrical contractor focused on mission-critical facilities and data centers | MasTec press release and Business Wire | July 20, 2026 |
| TTM financials | TTM revenue of $16.11 billion, net income of $494.33 million, EPS of $6.28, and free cash flow of $244.80 million | StockAnalysis financials and statistics | July 31, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | Cash of $315.64 million, total debt of $3.24 billion, net debt of about $2.92 billion, and net leverage of 1.8x (2.2x pro forma for Superior) | StockAnalysis balance sheet and MasTec Q2 2026 call | July 31, 2026 |
| TTM valuation metrics | 41.89x trailing EPS, 24.13x forward EPS, 5.91x book value, 85.20x free cash flow, and 0.00% dividend yield | Pineify financial_rigor.py and StockAnalysis statistics | July 31, 2026 |
| Technical references | 50-day moving average near $365.96, 200-day moving average near $297.04, RSI near 32, beta 1.77, and 52-week range $160.08 to $441.43 | StockAnalysis statistics and price history | July 31, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Consensus rating Strong Buy from 20 analysts, average price target $481, with a range of $363 to $581 | StockAnalysis forecast | July 31, 2026 |
| Management ownership | Insiders beneficially own about 21.26% of shares, with institutions owning about 74.16% | StockAnalysis share statistics | July 31, 2026 |
This MTZ AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future performance. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of July 31, 2026 and can be wrong if fundamentals, valuation multiples, market conditions, or source data change.
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