EMCOR Group, Inc. research snapshot
EME AI stock analysis reads EMCOR Group as a high-quality specialty construction and facilities services compounder whose Q2 2026 results were the strongest in its history as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff. EMCOR reported record revenue of $5.15 billion, up 19.8% year over year with 19.6% organic growth, record operating income of $547.3 million at a 10.6% margin, record diluted EPS of $9.06 up 34.8%, and record remaining performance obligations of $17.14 billion, up 43.9%. Management raised full-year 2026 guidance to $20.0 billion to $20.5 billion of revenue and $32.00 to $33.25 of diluted EPS. The stock still carries valuation risk at about 24.8x trailing EPS, 23.7x forward EPS, 8.65x book value, and 30x trailing free cash flow, and it sits about 16% below its 52-week high near $952 after a sharp correction. EME closed at $797.43 on July 31, 2026 with a market capitalization near $35.17 billion. The analysis supports a scenario framework, not a certain price prediction, and is for information only.
Current price
$797.43
Market cap
$35.17 billion verified market cap
AI score
75 / 100
Rating
Record quarter, raised guidance, and strong data center backlog at a premium valuation
Trend status
Correcting below the 50-day and 100-day moving averages but holding above the 200-day trend line after an earnings-driven rebound
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | EMCOR sells mission-critical electrical, mechanical, construction, and facilities services to customers that need reliable execution on complex commercial, industrial, data center, and institutional assets. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from scale, local operating density, technical labor, safety record, customer relationships, project execution know-how, and balance sheet trust rather than consumer brand pricing power. | Medium-high |
| Management | Tony Guzzi has led a long period of disciplined operating improvement, bolt-on M&A, buybacks, and margin expansion. Q2 2026 delivered record revenue, operating income, and EPS, and management raised full-year guidance again. | High |
| Financial trend | Q2 2026 revenue rose 19.8% to $5.15 billion, operating income rose about 32% to $547.3 million at a 10.6% margin, diluted EPS rose 34.8% to $9.06, and record RPOs reached $17.14 billion. | High |
| Valuation | At $797.43, EME screens near 24.81x TTM EPS, 23.69x forward EPS, 1.89x sales, 8.65x book, 30.03x free cash flow, and a dividend yield near 0.20%. | High |
| Technical trend | The stock is in a long-term uptrend above its 200-day moving average, but it is correcting below the 50-day and 100-day moving averages after falling roughly 16% from its 52-week high near $952. | Medium |
| Risk level | Main risks are data center demand normalization, project margin compression from more cost-plus work, labor shortages, fixed-price contract execution, acquisition integration, a possible correction after a large run, and multiple compression. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because Q2 2026 financial data is rich and cross-checked. Return confidence is lower because construction earnings and valuation multiples can turn before reported backlog weakens. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | EME is a strong business, but the current price needs continued backlog conversion, healthy margins, data center demand, and disciplined capital allocation to justify further upside. | Medium |
EME AI stock forecast
The EME AI stock forecast is scenario-based because specialty construction value depends on backlog conversion, project margins, labor cost, data center capital spending, buybacks, and the market multiple assigned to cyclical earnings. Using the $797.43 price reference, the FY2026 guidance midpoint of $32.63 adjusted EPS, and the audited three-year model, the mechanical range points to about $660 in a bear case, $1,100 in a base case, and $1,500 in a bullish case before dividends. The range is not a promise. A higher outcome needs strong data center and advanced manufacturing demand, clean execution, and continued margin discipline.
$1,400 to $1,600 before dividends
More likely if EPS compounds near the high teens, data center and electrical demand stay strong, backlog converts at healthy margins, acquisitions add value, and the market keeps valuing EME as a premium compounder.
$1,000 to $1,200 before dividends
More likely if EPS compounds near 12%, backlog remains high, margins normalize only modestly, buybacks continue, and the market values EME near a low-twenties to mid-twenties earnings multiple.
$620 to $700 before dividends
More likely if data center starts slow, project execution weakens, labor costs rise faster than pricing, backlog mix deteriorates, or investors rerate the stock as a cyclical contractor.
EME AI technical analysis
EME AI technical analysis is constructive but correcting as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff. The July 31, 2026 close was $797.43, with StockAnalysis listing a market cap near $35.17 billion and a 52-week range from about $565 to $952. Price holds above the 200-day moving average near $745 and the 20-day near $759, but it is below the 50-day near $803 and the 100-day near $809, so the stock needs to reclaim those levels to restore short-term momentum after the July correction.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $797.43 | StockAnalysis listed EME at $797.43 at the July 31, 2026 close, down 0.62% on the day after a 19.3% gain on July 30 following the Q2 report. |
| Near support | $770 to $790 | This zone covers the post-earnings pullback area and the July 30 to July 31 consolidation, a natural first test on any follow-through dip. |
| Moving average support | $744 to $760 | Barchart placed the 200-day moving average near $745 and the 20-day near $759, forming a support cluster that matters for the longer-term trend. |
| Major support | $668 to $700 | The July 29 low was near $668.82 and the psychological $700 zone sits just above it; a break below this range would challenge the correction structure. |
| Near resistance | $803 to $810 | The 50-day moving average near $802.68 and the 100-day near $809.18 are the first overhead levels that bulls need to reclaim. |
| Upper resistance | $840 to $860 | The July 31 intraday high was near $839.99, with June overhead in the $845 to $870 area; clearing this range would signal a stronger recovery. |
| 52-week high | $951.96 | The 52-week high is well overhead. A sustained recovery toward it would need continued strong results and stable data center demand. |
| Momentum | RSI near 54, ADX near 31 | Barchart reported 14-day RSI near 54.09, neutral after the correction, and 14-day ADX near 30.91, indicating a trending but less extreme move. |
| Volume | About 0.49 million average shares | Barchart listed 20-day average volume near 495,890 shares, with 878,100 shares trading on the July 30 earnings day, useful for judging move quality. |
| Volatility | Elevated after the large run and correction | Barchart reported 14-day historical volatility near 84% and 9-day near 102%, so position sizing should account for larger swings around reports and guidance. |
| Invalidation | Close below $744 to $700 | A decisive close below the 200-day moving average near $745 would weaken the long-term setup; a close below $700 would challenge the correction structure. |
EME AI trading strategy
The EME AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework for trading and watching the construction compounder. It is not personal advice and should be paired with fresh chart data, filings, position sizing, and a defined invalidation level.
Watch for EME to reclaim the 50-day moving average near $803 and then clear the $840 to $860 zone with strong volume, healthy backlog commentary, and no sign of project margin slippage.
A failed reclaim of the moving averages followed by a close below $744 should reduce trend confidence, especially if management signals slower data center awards or weaker labor productivity.
If EME pulls back toward the $744 to $770 support cluster while backlog and margins remain intact, compare the lower price with normalized EPS power, free cash flow yield, and the quality of remaining performance obligations.
Do not treat a pullback as automatically attractive if backlog quality weakens, fixed-price contracts pressure margins, or the stock is still priced for double-digit EPS growth after a large multi-year move.
Track Q2 and Q3 2026 results, full-year guidance, remaining performance obligations, data center and manufacturing awards, electrical and mechanical construction margins, cash conversion, buybacks, and acquisition discipline.
Position sizing should reflect that EME is exposed to cyclical capital spending and project execution risk, not a guaranteed infrastructure growth vehicle.
Investment research summary
Customers pay EMCOR because complex buildings, plants, data centers, hospitals, and industrial sites need electrical, mechanical, construction, and facilities work delivered safely and reliably.
EME has scale, local operating density, skilled labor, customer relationships, safety processes, and technical execution capability. The moat is real, but returns still depend on project selection and labor availability.
The thesis fails if data center demand normalizes, backlog converts at lower margins, fixed-price contracts absorb inflation, labor shortages worsen, safety or execution issues appear, or investors compress the earnings multiple after a large run.
Tony Guzzi has built a record of disciplined growth, acquisitions, buybacks, and margin improvement. The key management question is whether EMCOR can keep underwriting projects well as demand and expectations rise.
EME benefits from electrification, data centers, grid complexity, health care facilities, reshoring, advanced manufacturing, and maintenance of critical assets. These are long-duration trends, but they are not immune to capital spending cycles.
The current price implies confidence in sustained EPS growth and premium execution. Margin of safety is moderate at best because the stock already capitalizes a strong backlog and high margins after a large multi-year move.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current price | $797.43 at the July 31, 2026 close | StockAnalysis EME real-time quote | July 31, 2026 |
| Market cap | $35.17 billion, verified as $797.43 x 44.11 million shares with 0.01% deviation | financial_rigor.py market cap verification | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 revenue | $5.15 billion, up 19.8% year over year, with 19.6% organic growth | EMCOR Q2 2026 earnings release and earnings call | July 30, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 operating results | Operating income of $547.3 million, up about 32%, at a record 10.6% operating margin | EMCOR Q2 2026 earnings release | July 30, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 diluted EPS | $9.06, up 34.8% year over year from $6.72 | EMCOR Q2 2026 earnings release | July 30, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 remaining performance obligations | Record RPOs of $17.14 billion, up 43.9% year over year, 29% from December, and 10% sequentially, with 95% of the growth organic | EMCOR Q2 2026 earnings release and earnings call | July 30, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 segment results | Electrical construction revenue $1.66 billion up 24% with 13.9% margin, mechanical construction $2.3 billion up 31% with 12.5% margin, building services $837.7 million up 5.6% with 7.6% margin, industrial services $353.8 million up 26% | EMCOR Q2 2026 earnings call | July 30, 2026 |
| FY2026 guidance | Revenue raised to $20.0 billion to $20.5 billion from $18.5 billion to $19.25 billion, diluted EPS raised to $32.00 to $33.25 from $28.25 to $29.75 | EMCOR Q2 2026 earnings release | July 30, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 acquisitions | Five electrical contractors acquired: B&B Electric, Sidney Electric, Giles Electric, Schmidt Electric, and Connelly Electric, collectively $625 million revenue and $105 million EBITDA on a trailing 12-month basis | EMCOR Q2 2026 earnings call | July 30, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $16.99 billion, up 16.62% from $14.57 billion | StockAnalysis financials and EMCOR 2025 Form 10-K cross-check | August 1, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income | $1.27 billion, up 26.38% from $1.01 billion | StockAnalysis financials and EMCOR 2025 Form 10-K cross-check | August 1, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | $924.41 million cash and $548.03 million debt as of June 30, 2026, a net cash position of $376.38 million | StockAnalysis EME statistics balance sheet | August 1, 2026 |
| TTM financials | Revenue $18.60 billion, net income $1.44 billion, EPS $32.14, operating cash flow $1.29 billion, free cash flow $1.17 billion | StockAnalysis EME statistics | August 1, 2026 |
| Valuation check | 24.81x trailing EPS, 23.69x forward EPS, 1.89x sales, 8.65x book value, 30.03x free cash flow, 0.20% dividend yield, EV/EBITDA 16.30 | financial_rigor.py valuation verification | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy with an average target of $1,044.14 across 10 analysts, low $885 and high $1,200, median $1,065 | StockAnalysis EME forecast | July 31, 2026 |
| Analyst rating mix, July 2026 | 7 Strong Buy, 0 Buy, 3 Hold, 0 Sell out of 10 analysts | StockAnalysis EME forecast recommendation trends | July 31, 2026 |
| Recent analyst target updates | Oppenheimer $1,100 to $1,200, UBS $975 to $1,065, Baird $900 to $918, Thompson Davis $1,100 to $1,200, Goldman Sachs $825 to $885 | StockAnalysis EME forecast latest forecasts and TheFly | July 31, 2026 |
| Short interest | 1.35 million shares short, 3.05% of shares outstanding, 2.84 days to cover | StockAnalysis EME statistics short selling | August 1, 2026 |
| FY2026 and FY2027 consensus estimates | FY2026 revenue estimate $19.88 billion with EPS $31.70, FY2027 revenue $21.75 billion with EPS $35.54 | StockAnalysis EME forecast financial forecast | July 31, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 20-day SMA near $759, 50-day SMA near $803, 100-day SMA near $809, 200-day SMA near $745, 14-day RSI near 54, 14-day ADX near 31 | Barchart and StockAnalysis technical snapshots | August 1, 2026 |
This EME AI stock analysis is an informational research tool, not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future return. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available filings, quote snapshots, and third-party data as of the stated cutoff date. They may be wrong, incomplete, or outdated after new earnings, backlog changes, market moves, or macro conditions.
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