Is MTSI a buy according to AI stock analysis?

MTSI AI stock analysis rates MACOM as a high-growth but valuation-sensitive semiconductor business, not an automatic buy. Revenue and margin momentum are strong, but the share price assumes continued data center and defense execution, so entry discipline and scenario risk matter.

What is the MTSI AI stock forecast?

The MTSI AI stock forecast is a scenario range, not a guaranteed target. The audited three-year model spans about $216 in a bear case, $445 in a base case, and $707 in a bull case, with outcomes driven by earnings growth and the valuation multiple.

What technical levels matter for MTSI?

The main MTSI technical levels at the July 11, 2026 cutoff are support around $300 to $317, the 50-day moving average near $355.62, and the 200-day moving average near $235.77. Confirm current levels with live chart data before acting.

Can AI predict MTSI stock price?

No, AI cannot reliably predict stock prices. It can organize reported financials, track scenarios, and identify risk variables, but MACOM shares can move on demand changes, earnings, customer programs, valuations, and market conditions that no model knows in advance.

How should I use this MTSI AI trading strategy?

Use this MTSI AI trading strategy as a research and risk-control framework, not personalized investment advice. Define your timeframe, position size, invalidation level, and monitoring plan, then refresh the chart and company data before making a decision.

MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc. research snapshot

MTSI AI Stock Analysis

MTSI AI stock analysis currently reads MACOM as a differentiated analog, RF, optical, and mixed-signal semiconductor supplier benefiting from data center and defense demand. Fiscal Q2 2026 revenue grew 22.5% year over year to $289.0 million and management guided fiscal Q3 revenue to $331 million to $339 million. The trade-off is valuation: at the July 11, 2026 cutoff, the latest July 9 close was $317.35 and price multiplied by 76.30 million shares produced market capitalization near $24.21 billion. The MTSI AI stock forecast is scenario-based, not a precise price prediction, and this page is informational research rather than investment advice.

Current price

$317.35

Market cap

$24.21 billion

AI score

68 / 100

Rating

High-growth analog compounder, valuation sensitive

Trend status

Long-term uptrend, short-term momentum weakened

Data cutoff (updated weekly)

July 11, 2026

Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.

Research quality check

information Richness: A-level information richness. MACOM has long public filings, quarterly releases, third-party financial and quote data, and coverage across semiconductor end markets.
bias Check: The main AI bias risk is extrapolating data center demand and margin expansion. A strong order cycle can obscure customer concentration, inventory corrections, program timing, and the valuation embedded in the share price.
ai Confidence: High for reported financials and quote math
investment Certainty: Medium-low. The operating trend is well documented, but future returns depend heavily on sustained data center demand, execution, and a premium earnings multiple.

Quick verdict table

Dimension	Conclusion	Confidence
Business quality	MACOM sells high-performance RF, microwave, analog, mixed-signal, and optical semiconductor products into Industrial and Defense, Data Center, and Telecom applications.	High
Moat	Moat comes from specialized process technology, application expertise, qualification cycles, reliability requirements, and a broad portfolio rather than a consumer brand or network effect.	Medium-high
Management	Stephen Daly and the team have focused on data center, defense, proprietary technology, and supply chain capacity. The test is converting growth investment into durable returns without excess dilution.	Medium
Financial trend	Fiscal Q2 2026 revenue was $289.0 million, up 22.5% year over year, with GAAP operating margin of 17.6% and adjusted operating margin of 27.8%.	High
Valuation	financial_rigor.py verified about 136.2x trailing EPS and 144.3x trailing free cash flow per share at $317.35, leaving little room for an execution miss.	High
Technical trend	MTSI remains above its 200-day moving average but the latest close is below the 50-day average, which makes recovery of short-term momentum an important confirmation point.	Medium
Risk level	Risk is high because semiconductor demand is cyclical, data center programs can be lumpy, the stock has high volatility, and current valuation assumes rapid earnings growth.	High
AI confidence	High for historical filing data, Q2 results, and market-cap arithmetic. Medium for forward scenarios because end-market timing and valuation multiples can change quickly.	High data confidence
Investment certainty	Medium-low certainty. The business has real technical strengths, but the entry price requires both continued growth and continued investor willingness to pay a premium multiple.	Medium-low

MTSI AI stock forecast

MTSI AI Stock Forecast Scenarios

The MTSI AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges around the $317.35 July 9 close rather than a point target. A financial_rigor.py three-scenario model using $5.36 normalized fiscal 2026 EPS produced mechanical three-year outputs near $706.60 in a bull case, $444.60 in a base case, and $216.10 in a bear case. These outputs are sensitive to the growth and price-to-earnings assumptions and are not price targets.

Bullish case

$445 to $707

More likely if data center optical and RF programs scale quickly, defense demand remains firm, fiscal Q3 guidance is met or exceeded, gross margin expands, and investors continue to support a premium multiple.

Base case

$317 to $445

More likely if revenue growth remains healthy but moderates, adjusted operating margin holds near the Q2 level, and the market values MACOM closer to a high-growth semiconductor peer rather than a scarcity premium.

Bearish case

$216 to $317

More likely if data center orders pause, Telecom remains soft, customers reduce inventory, capacity investments do not earn their expected return, or the valuation multiple contracts.

MTSI AI technical analysis

MTSI AI Technical Analysis

MTSI AI technical analysis starts from the $317.35 July 9, 2026 close. StockAnalysis showed a 50-day moving average near $355.62, a 200-day moving average near $235.77, and RSI near 40.06 around the cutoff. This static page does not fetch request-time chart data, so live levels should be checked before use.

Level	Value	Why it matters
Current price	$317.35	StockAnalysis listed this regular-session close on July 9, 2026. The July 11 cutoff falls after the latest available close.
Near support	$300 to $317	The latest close and nearby round-number area form an initial support zone. A break below it would require a fresh chart review.
Major support	About $235.77	StockAnalysis listed the 200-day moving average at this level around the cutoff. It is a trend reference, not a predicted destination.
Near resistance	About $355.62	The 50-day moving average was above the latest close. Reclaiming it would improve short-term trend confirmation.
50-day moving average	About $355.62	StockAnalysis technical snapshot around the cutoff.
200-day moving average	About $235.77	StockAnalysis technical snapshot around the cutoff.
Momentum	RSI 40.06	Momentum was below neutral, but not at the standard oversold threshold of 30.
Volume and volatility	1.92M average volume, beta 1.65	StockAnalysis reported 20-day average volume of about 1.92 million shares and above-market historical volatility.
Invalidation	Sustained break below $300	A failure to hold the recent support zone while remaining below the 50-day average would weaken a trend-following setup.

MTSI AI trading strategy

MTSI AI Trading Strategy Framework

The MTSI AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework for monitoring a volatile semiconductor stock. It is not personalized advice and should be paired with position sizing, a defined invalidation level, earnings-calendar review, and current chart data.

Trend-following setup

Monitor whether MTSI reclaims the $355.62 50-day moving average with volume while fiscal Q3 revenue guidance, data center commentary, and broader semiconductor leadership remain constructive.

Predefine risk. A failed reclaim followed by a sustained break below $300 can invalidate the short-term setup.

Mean-reversion setup

If MTSI holds the $300 to $317 area, assess whether the pullback is technical rather than a change in bookings, data center demand, gross margin, or management guidance.

Do not average down merely because RSI is lower. Reassess if fundamentals weaken or price fails to respect the support area.

Fundamental monitor

Track Data Center, Industrial and Defense, and Telecom demand; book-to-bill trends; gross margin; operating margin; cash and investments; debt; diluted shares; and fiscal Q3 guidance execution.

Reduce confidence if revenue growth slows sharply, inventory builds, margin expansion stalls, or dilution and capital needs rise faster than operating earnings.

Investment research summary

Four-master Research Compression

Business essence

Customers pay MACOM for high-performance semiconductor components that solve demanding RF, optical, analog, microwave, power, and mixed-signal problems in communications, data center, industrial, and defense systems.

Moat

The moat comes from specialized process technologies, design wins, qualification requirements, reliability records, application support, and a portfolio that serves more than one semiconductor cycle. It is less protected when a design can be dual-sourced or technology shifts.

Munger risk inversion

The thesis fails if the data center build-out pauses, customers correct inventory, competitive alternatives gain socket share, defense or telecom demand softens, or a high valuation multiple falls faster than earnings rise.

Management

Management is directing capital toward data center, defense, differentiated technology, and supply-chain capability. Investors should watch whether investment converts to free cash flow and whether equity compensation and convertible financing dilute owner economics.

Industry trend

AI data center networking and defense electronics are durable demand themes, while Telecom remains a cyclical counterweight. MACOM benefits from the trend only when its products remain qualified and its customers deploy programs on schedule.

Valuation and margin of safety

At roughly 136x trailing GAAP EPS and 144x trailing free cash flow per share, the stock offers limited valuation margin of safety. The underwriting case depends on a large increase in normalized earnings and sustained premium valuation.

Source-backed data

MTSI Data Table

Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.

Metric	Value	Source	Last verified
MTSI price	$317.35 at the July 9 close	StockAnalysis quote snapshot	July 11, 2026
Market capitalization	$24.21 billion, calculated from $317.35 x 76.30M shares	StockAnalysis and financial_rigor.py	July 11, 2026
Shares outstanding	76.30 million	StockAnalysis share statistics	July 11, 2026
Fiscal Q2 2026 revenue	$289.0 million, up 22.5% year over year	MACOM fiscal Q2 2026 results	July 11, 2026
Fiscal Q2 2026 GAAP net income	$46.3 million, or $0.60 diluted EPS	MACOM fiscal Q2 2026 results	July 11, 2026
Fiscal Q2 2026 gross margin	56.9% GAAP, 58.5% adjusted	MACOM fiscal Q2 2026 results	July 11, 2026
Cash and short-term investments	$664.86 million at April 3, 2026	MACOM fiscal Q2 2026 results and StockAnalysis	July 11, 2026
Fiscal Q3 2026 outlook	$331 million to $339 million revenue and $1.31 to $1.37 adjusted diluted EPS	MACOM fiscal Q2 2026 results	July 11, 2026

Frequently Asked Questions

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This page is an informational research tool, not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Forecast scenarios use available data and assumptions that can be wrong. Review primary filings, confirm live price data, and consider professional advice before making an investment decision.