MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc. research snapshot
MTSI AI stock analysis currently reads MACOM as a high-growth RF, optical, analog, and mixed-signal semiconductor supplier that is correcting sharply after a July de-rating in AI and optical hardware names. The latest close was $251.44 on July 31, 2026, down about 30 percent from the early July level near $355, with market capitalization near $19.18 billion on 76.30 million shares. Fiscal Q2 2026 revenue grew 22.5% year over year to $289.0 million and management guided fiscal Q3 revenue to $331 million to $339 million ahead of the August 6 earnings report. Valuation remains rich at roughly 108x trailing EPS and about 40x forward earnings, so the MTSI AI stock forecast is scenario-based and this page is informational research rather than investment advice.
Current price
$251.44
Market cap
$19.18 billion
AI score
58 / 100
Rating
High-growth analog and optical compounder, momentum reset in progress
Trend status
Long-term uptrend intact, short-term momentum weak
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | MACOM sells high-performance RF, microwave, analog, mixed-signal, and optical semiconductor products into Industrial and Defense, Data Center, and Telecom applications. | High |
| Moat | Moat comes from specialized process technology, application expertise, qualification cycles, reliability requirements, and a broad portfolio rather than a consumer brand or network effect. | Medium-high |
| Management | Stephen Daly and the team have focused on data center, defense, proprietary technology, and supply chain capacity. The test is converting growth investment into durable returns while managing a rising share count. | Medium |
| Financial trend | Fiscal Q2 2026 revenue was $289.0 million, up 22.5% year over year, with GAAP operating margin of 17.6% and adjusted operating margin of 27.8%. Trailing twelve-month revenue grew about 27%. | High |
| Valuation | financial_rigor.py verified about 107.9x trailing EPS and 114.3x trailing free cash flow per share at $251.44, with forward PE near 40x, leaving little room for an execution miss. | High |
| Technical trend | MTSI is below its 50-day moving average of about $337.05 and trading just above the 200-day average near $247.37, with RSI at 35.71. The short-term trend is weak. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is high because semiconductor demand is cyclical, data center programs can be lumpy, the optical trade de-rated in July, beta is 1.65, and valuation still assumes rapid earnings growth. | High |
| AI confidence | High for historical filing data, Q2 results, and market-cap arithmetic. Medium for forward scenarios because end-market timing and valuation multiples can change quickly. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium-low certainty. The business has real technical strengths, but the entry price still requires continued growth, margin execution, and renewed investor willingness to pay a premium multiple. | Medium-low |
MTSI AI stock forecast
The MTSI AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges around the $251.44 July 31 close rather than a point target. A financial_rigor.py three-scenario model using the $5.03 fiscal 2026 consensus non-GAAP EPS estimate produced mechanical three-year outputs near $556.90 in a bull case, $343.78 in a base case, and $139.44 in a bear case. These outputs are sensitive to the growth and price-to-earnings assumptions and are not price targets.
$344 to $557
More likely if the fiscal Q3 report on August 6 meets or beats the $331 million to $339 million revenue range, data center optical and RF programs scale quickly, defense demand stays firm, gross margin expands, and investors return to a premium multiple.
$251 to $344
More likely if revenue growth remains healthy but moderates, adjusted operating margin holds near the Q2 level, the July de-rating stabilizes, and the market values MACOM closer to a high-growth semiconductor peer rather than a scarcity premium.
$139 to $251
More likely if the optical and AI hardware correction deepens, data center orders pause, Telecom stays soft, customers reduce inventory, capacity investments do not earn their expected return, or the valuation multiple keeps contracting.
MTSI AI technical analysis
MTSI AI technical analysis starts from the $251.44 July 31, 2026 close. StockAnalysis showed a 50-day moving average near $337.05, a 200-day moving average near $247.37, and RSI near 35.71 around the cutoff. This static page does not fetch request-time chart data, so live levels should be checked before use.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $251.44 | StockAnalysis listed this regular-session close on July 31, 2026. The August 2 cutoff falls after the latest available close. |
| Near support | About $247 | The 200-day moving average is just below the current price near $247.37. Holding this area would be an early sign of stabilization. |
| Major support | $235 area | A move below the 200-day average toward the round-number zone would require a fresh chart review and would weaken the long-term trend picture. |
| Near resistance | $270 to $285 | The area above the recent breakdown zone is the first meaningful overhead. Reclaiming it would improve short-term confirmation. |
| Major resistance | About $337.05 | StockAnalysis listed the 50-day moving average at this level around the cutoff. It is a trend reference, not a predicted destination. |
| 50-day moving average | About $337.05 | StockAnalysis technical snapshot around the cutoff. |
| 200-day moving average | About $247.37 | StockAnalysis technical snapshot around the cutoff. |
| Momentum | RSI 35.71 | Momentum was weak and approaching, but not yet at, the standard oversold threshold of 30. |
| Volume and volatility | 1.50M average volume, beta 1.65 | StockAnalysis reported 20-day average volume of about 1.50 million shares and above-market historical volatility. |
| Invalidation | Sustained close below $247 | A failure to hold the 200-day moving average area while remaining below the 50-day average would weaken both trend-following and mean-reversion setups. |
MTSI AI trading strategy
The MTSI AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework for monitoring a volatile semiconductor stock during a sharp correction. It is not personalized advice and should be paired with position sizing, a defined invalidation level, the August 6 earnings report, and current chart data.
Monitor whether MTSI reclaims the $270 to $285 area and then the $337.05 50-day moving average with volume while the fiscal Q3 report, data center commentary, and broader semiconductor leadership remain constructive.
Predefine risk. A failed reclaim followed by a sustained close below $247 can invalidate the short-term setup.
If MTSI holds the $247 to $251 area near the 200-day average, assess whether the pullback is technical de-rating rather than a change in bookings, data center demand, gross margin, or management guidance.
Do not average down merely because RSI is lower. Reassess if fundamentals weaken, the August 6 report disappoints, or price fails to respect the support area.
Track Data Center, Industrial and Defense, and Telecom demand; book-to-bill trends; gross margin; operating margin; cash and investments; debt; diluted shares; and the fiscal Q3 guidance execution reported on August 6.
Reduce confidence if revenue growth slows sharply, inventory builds, margin expansion stalls, dilution rises, or the optical de-rating continues into a broader demand concern.
Investment research summary
Customers pay MACOM for high-performance semiconductor components that solve demanding RF, optical, analog, microwave, power, and mixed-signal problems in communications, data center, industrial, and defense systems.
The moat comes from specialized process technologies, design wins, qualification requirements, reliability records, application support, and a portfolio that serves more than one semiconductor cycle. It is less protected when a design can be dual-sourced or technology shifts.
The thesis fails if the data center build-out pauses, the optical de-rating deepens, customers correct inventory, competitive alternatives gain socket share, defense or telecom demand softens, or a high valuation multiple falls faster than earnings rise.
Management is directing capital toward data center, defense, differentiated technology, and supply-chain capability. Investors should watch whether investment converts to free cash flow and whether equity compensation and convertible financing dilute owner economics as the share count rises.
AI data center networking and defense electronics are durable demand themes, but the July selloff showed that optical and AI hardware names can de-rate even with strong demand. Telecom remains a cyclical counterweight.
At roughly 108x trailing GAAP EPS, about 40x forward earnings, and 114x trailing free cash flow per share, the stock still offers limited valuation margin of safety. The underwriting case depends on a large increase in normalized earnings and a stabilized multiple.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| MTSI price | $251.44 at the July 31 close | StockAnalysis quote snapshot | August 2, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $19.18 billion, calculated from $251.44 x 76.30M shares | StockAnalysis and financial_rigor.py | August 2, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 76.30 million, up 4.02% year over year | StockAnalysis share statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Trailing revenue | $1.07 billion, up about 27% year over year | StockAnalysis financials | August 2, 2026 |
| Trailing net income and EPS | $176.75 million, or $2.33 per share | StockAnalysis statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Fiscal Q2 2026 revenue | $289.0 million, up 22.5% year over year | MACOM fiscal Q2 2026 results | August 2, 2026 |
| Fiscal Q2 2026 GAAP net income | $46.3 million, or $0.60 diluted EPS | MACOM fiscal Q2 2026 results | August 2, 2026 |
| Fiscal Q2 2026 gross margin | 56.9% GAAP, 58.5% adjusted | MACOM fiscal Q2 2026 results | August 2, 2026 |
| Cash and short-term investments | $664.86 million at April 3, 2026 | MACOM fiscal Q2 2026 results and StockAnalysis | August 2, 2026 |
| Fiscal Q3 2026 outlook | $331 million to $339 million revenue and $1.31 to $1.37 adjusted diluted EPS | MACOM fiscal Q2 2026 results | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus and price target | Buy rating, average target $400.92 from 14 analysts | StockAnalysis analyst forecast | August 2, 2026 |
| Fiscal 2026 consensus non-GAAP EPS | $5.03 per share | StockAnalysis analyst forecast | August 2, 2026 |
This page is an informational research tool, not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Forecast scenarios use available data and assumptions that can be wrong. Review primary filings, confirm live price data, and consider professional advice before making an investment decision.
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