Bullish case
$570 to $660 over 3 years
More likely if AI compute, memory, and networking test demand remains strong, Q2 2026 guidance is met or exceeded, EPS compounds near 28%, and investors continue to award a premium multiple.
Teradyne, Inc. research snapshot
TER AI Stock Analysis
TER AI stock analysis currently reads Teradyne as a high-quality semiconductor test company benefiting from AI compute, networking, and memory demand, but the stock already prices in a large part of that rebound. At the July 8, 2026 cutoff, TER closed at $343.11 on July 7, 2026, with verified market capitalization near $53.71 billion using SEC share count data. The AI stock forecast is scenario-based, not a promise, and the page is for information only, not investment advice.
Current price
$343.11 close on July 7, 2026
Market cap
$53.71 billion verified, about $54.09 billion quoted
AI score
72 / 100
Rating
Quality cyclical compounder, valuation-sensitive
Trend status
Long-term uptrend with sharp short-term pullback
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 8, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
Research quality check
- information Richness
- A-level information richness. Teradyne is a long-listed Nasdaq company with current SEC filings, company releases, third-party financial data, analyst coverage, and liquid market data.
- bias Check
- The main AI bias risk is anchoring on the strong AI semiconductor narrative and underweighting cyclicality, customer concentration, robotics execution risk, and valuation compression after a sharp stock rerating.
- ai Confidence
- High for reported financials, market cap math, and business segment facts. Medium for technical levels because live chart feeds can diverge by vendor.
- investment Certainty
- Medium. Business quality is clear, but investor outcome depends heavily on the durability of AI test demand and the multiple investors are willing to pay.
Quick verdict table
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Teradyne sells automated test equipment and robotics systems into markets where reliability, engineering depth, and customer qualification matter. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from semiconductor test know-how, customer qualification cycles, installed base relationships, and scale, but demand remains cyclical. | High |
| Management | CEO Greg Smith is steering the company toward AI-related test demand while maintaining balance sheet flexibility and shareholder returns. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY 2025 revenue rose to $3.19 billion, and Q1 2026 revenue reached $1.282 billion with strong AI-linked Semiconductor Test growth. | High |
| Valuation | The stock trades at about 63.7x TTM EPS and demands sustained growth to justify the current price. | High |
| Technical trend | Price is below short and intermediate moving averages after a sharp pullback, while the 200-day trend remains above many long-term references. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are semiconductor capex cycles, AI demand timing, customer concentration, valuation compression, robotics margin drag, and export controls. | High |
| AI confidence | High data confidence for the core company profile and reported numbers, with lower confidence for near-term price direction. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty because the business is strong, but the margin of safety is limited at a high earnings multiple. | Medium |
TER AI stock forecast
TER AI Stock Forecast Scenarios
The TER AI stock forecast uses scenarios around the $343.11 July 7 close. The upside case requires durable AI-related semiconductor test demand and high margins; the base case assumes growth normalizes; the downside case assumes the current multiple contracts as demand timing disappoints.
Base case
$330 to $360 over 3 years
More likely if EPS grows near the mid-teens, Semi Test remains healthy, Product Test and Robotics improve gradually, and the market values TER near a lower but still premium multiple.
Bearish case
$140 to $190 over 3 years
More likely if AI program ramps slow, customer capex normalizes, gross margin falls, or the market reprices TER closer to a cyclical equipment multiple.
TER AI technical analysis
TER AI Technical Analysis
TER AI technical analysis shows a stock that fell hard from its late-June high zone. The July 7 close of $343.11 sits below several short-term averages cited by technical vendors, while the longer-term setup still depends on whether price can hold above the broader 200-day trend area.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $343.11 close on July 7, 2026 | StockAnalysis showed TER closing down 9.59% on July 7, 2026, with pre-market trading lower on July 8. |
| Near support | $331 to $340 | Recent intraday and pre-market ranges clustered in this band after the pullback. A failure here would keep short-term sellers in control. |
| Deeper support | $267 to $270 | TipRanks and Barchart both showed 200-day moving average references near this zone, making it a long-term trend checkpoint. |
| Near resistance | $384 to $417 | This zone overlaps 50-day and 20-day moving average references from multiple technical sources. |
| Major resistance | $472 area | Financhill cited a 52-week high near $472.37, which is the level bulls need to reclaim before the uptrend looks fully repaired. |
| 50-day moving average | $384 to $417 vendor range | Different vendors show different live calculations, but all cited short-term moving average pressure after the July pullback. |
| 200-day moving average | $267 to $270 vendor range | The long-term moving average remains well below the current quote, so the long-term trend has not fully broken on this dataset. |
| Momentum | Short-term sell, longer-term mixed | Investing.com cited RSI near 30.7 and a strong-sell daily summary, while TipRanks showed neutral RSI and mixed MACD. |
| Volume and volatility | Elevated after a sharp drawdown | Barchart showed high ATR percentage readings, which argues for smaller position sizing and wider planning bands. |
| Invalidation | Decisive close below $331 | A breakdown below the recent pullback range would weaken the mean-reversion setup and put deeper support zones in focus. |
TER AI trading strategy
TER AI Trading Strategy Framework
The TER AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework for a volatile semiconductor equipment stock. It does not tell any investor what to buy or sell, and it should be paired with fresh chart data, position sizing, and earnings risk controls.
Trend-following setup
Wait for TER to reclaim the $384 to $417 moving average resistance zone with volume and hold above it for more than one session.
Invalidate the setup if the reclaim fails quickly or price closes back below the recent support band.
Mean-reversion setup
If TER stabilizes between $331 and $340 without negative company-specific news, compare the rebound attempt with RSI, volume, and semiconductor peer action.
Avoid averaging down without a defined maximum loss, because valuation compression can continue even when the business remains good.
Fundamental monitor
Track AI-related revenue mix, Q2 2026 guidance delivery, Semiconductor Test margins, Robotics growth, customer concentration, and export control headlines.
Reduce confidence if revenue growth remains strong but orders, margins, or guidance point to a peak cycle rather than a durable earnings base.
Investment research summary
Four-master Research Compression
Business essence
Teradyne helps semiconductor and electronics customers test complex chips, systems, and robotics products before they reach end markets. Customers pay because failed testing can create yield losses, product recalls, and delayed launches.
Moat
The moat is strongest in Semiconductor Test, where engineering depth, customer qualification, application expertise, and switching costs matter. It is weaker where end-market capex cycles dominate purchasing decisions.
Munger risk inversion
The thesis can fail if AI test demand is pulled forward, large customers pause capacity additions, China export limits expand, robotics underperforms, or the stock multiple compresses before earnings catch up.
Management
Management has emphasized AI-driven compute, networking, and memory demand while keeping the balance sheet liquid. Capital allocation still needs discipline because the stock price already reflects strong execution expectations.
Industry trend
AI accelerators, advanced packaging, memory bandwidth, automotive electronics, and industrial automation all raise testing complexity, which supports long-term demand for high-end automated test equipment.
Valuation and margin of safety
At about 63.7x TTM EPS, TER has limited margin of safety unless earnings compound at high rates. The base scenario is close to the current price, while the bear case shows meaningful downside if the cycle turns.
Source-backed data
TER Data Table
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| TER close price | $343.11 at close on July 7, 2026 | StockAnalysis quote page | July 8, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $53.71 billion verified as $343.11 x 156,542,162 shares; quoted market cap near $54.09 billion | SEC Q1 2026 10-Q and financial_rigor.py | July 8, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 156,542,162 common shares as of April 27, 2026 | SEC Q1 2026 10-Q | July 8, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 revenue | $1.282 billion, including $1.111 billion Semiconductor Test, $91 million Robotics, and $80 million Product Test | Teradyne Q1 2026 results | July 8, 2026 |
| FY 2025 revenue | $3.190 billion, up 13% from 2024 | Teradyne FY 2025 results and StockAnalysis cross-check | July 8, 2026 |
| FY 2025 net income to common | $554.0 million cross-checked against StockAnalysis | StockTitan and StockAnalysis cross-check | July 8, 2026 |
| TTM revenue and EPS | $3.787 billion TTM revenue and $5.40 diluted EPS | StockAnalysis financials | July 8, 2026 |
| Cash and marketable securities | About $394 million at March 29, 2026; no outstanding credit facility balance at that date | SEC Q1 2026 10-Q | July 8, 2026 |
| Valuation math | PE 63.66x, PB 17.08x, ROE 26.83%, dividend yield 0.14% using financial_rigor.py | financial_rigor.py valuation verification | July 8, 2026 |
| Technical moving average references | 50-day moving average pressure near $384 to $417 and 200-day support near $267 to $270 across vendors | TipRanks, Barchart, Investing.com technical snapshots | July 8, 2026 |
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This TER AI stock analysis is an informational research tool, not investment advice, tax advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Forecast scenarios are based on available data at the cutoff date and can be wrong if business fundamentals, market prices, rates, regulations, or investor sentiment change.