MKS Inc. research snapshot
MKSI AI stock analysis reads MKS Inc. as a diversified supplier of semiconductor process, electronics and packaging, photonics, and specialty industrial technologies that is benefiting from AI-related manufacturing demand, while flagging that the shares pulled back sharply in July 2026 along with the broader semiconductor complex. Q1 2026 revenue reached $1.078 billion with $277 million adjusted EBITDA, both at or above the high end of guidance, and Q2 2026 guidance implies roughly $1.2 billion in revenue. At the August 2, 2026 data cutoff, MKSI last closed at $297.45 on July 31, 2026, market capitalization was about $20.09 billion using 67.54 million shares, and the stock traded roughly 34% below its $447.62 52-week high after a broad semiconductor selloff. The MKSI AI stock forecast uses scenarios rather than a precise price prediction, and this page is informational research rather than investment advice.
Current price
$297.45 close on July 31, 2026
Market cap
$20.09 billion
AI score
70 / 100
Rating
Semiconductor and electronics supplier in a sharp cyclical pullback, valuation and leverage sensitive
Trend status
Long-term uptrend above the 200-day average, below the 50-day after a July selloff
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | MKS sells process-control, vacuum, photonics, laser, specialty-chemical, and equipment technologies that help customers manufacture semiconductors, advanced electronics, and industrial products. | High |
| Moat | Application engineering, installed-base service, process know-how, proprietary components, and long customer qualification cycles create switching friction, though the company still competes in capital-equipment markets. | Medium-high |
| Management | John T.C. Lee and the finance team are prioritizing capacity, operating discipline, and debt reduction. The central test is whether cash generation lowers leverage and addresses convertible-note convertibility while growth investment stays disciplined. | Medium |
| Financial trend | Q1 2026 revenue grew 15% year over year to $1.078 billion, with 47.0% gross margin and $277 million adjusted EBITDA, each at or above the high end of guidance. Q2 2026 guidance implies about $1.2 billion in revenue. | High |
| Valuation | At $297.45, trailing GAAP valuation was about 62.2x EPS while the forward multiple on FY2026 non-GAAP consensus EPS of $11.76 was about 25.3x, with a free-cash-flow yield near 2.0% by financial_rigor.py calculation. | Medium |
| Technical trend | The July 31 close was above the cited 200-day moving average of $244.67 but below the cited 50-day average of $346.64, with RSI near 41, after a sharp pullback from the $447.62 52-week high. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is high because the equity is sensitive to semiconductor spending, demand concentration, tariffs, execution in Electronics & Packaging, refinancing, convertible-note conversion, and net debt near $3.72 billion. | High |
| AI confidence | High for reported financials, end-market mix, and market-cap math. Medium for the outlook because AI spending and semiconductor cycles can change quickly. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. The business has credible technology exposure and improving demand, but the stock is volatile and the price still discounts a large part of the recovery and deleveraging path. | Medium |
MKSI AI stock forecast
The MKSI AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges around the $297.45 reference price rather than a point target. A mechanical financial_rigor.py three-scenario model using FY2026 consensus non-GAAP EPS of $11.76 produced three-year outputs near $775 in a bull case, $483 in a base case, and $185 in a bear case. These are sensitivity outputs, not price promises.
$620 to $780
More likely if AI-driven wafer-fab and advanced-packaging investment stays broad, Q2 guidance is met or exceeded, gross margin holds near 47%, cash flow accelerates, and debt reduction and convertible-note management improve the balance-sheet narrative.
$420 to $520
More likely if end-market growth remains healthy but normalizes, Q2 revenue lands near guidance, tariffs remain manageable, and investors value MKSI near a low-20s forward earnings multiple.
$180 to $300
More likely if the semiconductor selloff deepens, capital spending weakens, Electronics & Packaging orders reverse, tariffs or foreign exchange compress margin, or conversion-related dilution and leverage concerns rise.
MKSI AI technical analysis
MKSI AI technical analysis uses the August 2, 2026 static data cutoff. StockAnalysis cited a 50-day moving average of $346.64, a 200-day moving average of $244.67, RSI of 41.28, and 20-day average volume of about 1.34 million shares. The July 31 close of $297.45 was below the 50-day average and above the 200-day average. Confirm live chart data before acting because this page does not make request-time market-data calls.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price reference | $297.45 | Closing quote on July 31, 2026. It is a static reference, not a live quote, and follow-through matters after a volatile month. |
| Near support | $294 to $300 | The recent low area near the late-July range. A sustained break below it would test the 200-day average zone. |
| Major support | $245 | The cited 200-day moving average was $244.67. Holding this zone keeps the longer-term trend intact. |
| Near resistance | $347 | The cited 50-day moving average was $346.64. Recapturing this level on volume would signal improving short-term momentum. |
| 52-week resistance | $447.62 | StockAnalysis listed this as the top of the cited 52-week range at the cutoff. |
| Moving averages | 50-day $346.64, 200-day $244.67 | Price is below the 50-day and above the 200-day, which is consistent with a pullback inside a longer uptrend. |
| Momentum and volume | RSI 41.28, 20-day volume 1.34M | Momentum leaned bearish after the selloff and should be checked with volume on earnings, guidance, or semiconductor-demand news. |
| Invalidation | Sustained loss of $245 | A break through the 200-day average alongside weaker orders or guidance would invalidate a longer-term trend-following setup. |
MKSI AI trading strategy
The MKSI AI trading strategy is a monitoring framework for a cyclical semiconductor and advanced-packaging supplier. It is not personalized advice and should be used with position sizing, an earnings calendar, and current chart data. MKS is scheduled to report Q2 2026 results on August 5, 2026.
Monitor whether MKSI holds above the $245 200-day average and recaptures the $347 50-day level with volume. Confirm that semiconductor equipment peers and customer capital-spending signals stabilize after the July selloff.
Treat a sustained break below $245, especially with weaker bookings or guidance, as a failed setup. Do not rely on a static level without a current chart.
If price stabilizes near the $294 to $300 area, assess whether Q2 revenue, gross margin, adjusted EBITDA, order commentary, and debt reduction remain aligned with the operating thesis.
Avoid averaging down when the decline reflects a semiconductor spending slowdown, a margin miss, tariff escalation, convertible-note dilution, or balance-sheet stress.
Track Semiconductor, Electronics & Packaging, and Specialty Industrial revenue; gross margin; adjusted EBITDA; operating cash flow; free cash flow; debt principal; net leverage; tariffs; convertible-note status; and the August 5, 2026 Q2 report.
Reduce confidence if growth slows while debt remains elevated or if share dilution, refinancing, or working-capital needs absorb cash generation.
Investment research summary
Customers pay MKS for technologies that improve yield, control, precision, throughput, and reliability in complex semiconductor, advanced-electronics, photonics, and industrial manufacturing processes.
MKS benefits from accumulated process expertise, qualified components, installed-base service, application engineering, and a broad portfolio across vacuum, photonics, lasers, equipment, and specialty chemistry. The moat is meaningful but not immune to customer concentration or capital-cycle competition.
The thesis fails if AI-driven demand is overestimated, semiconductor investment falls, tariffs or foreign exchange hurt margins, acquisitions do not earn their cost of capital, and debt or convertible-note conversion limits the response to a downturn.
Management highlighted revenue growth, margin execution, capacity investment, and proactive deleveraging after the Q1 refinancing. The key question is whether free cash flow can reduce leverage while preserving the innovation needed to keep customers qualified.
AI data centers, advanced memory and logic, advanced packaging, high-density circuit boards, and connectivity demand are long-term tailwinds. The industry remains cyclical because customers can delay fab and electronics capital spending, as the July 2026 selloff showed.
The $297.45 reference price still assumes a strong earnings recovery. The mechanical base case was well above the reference price, so a margin of safety would require either a lower entry risk or evidence that demand, margins, and deleveraging can exceed expectations.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| MKSI price and market capitalization | $297.45 close on July 31, 2026 and $20.09 billion market cap using 67.54M shares | StockAnalysis statistics snapshot | August 2, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 67.54 million | StockAnalysis share statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 revenue and end-market mix | $1.078B total: Semiconductor $466M, Electronics & Packaging $321M, Specialty Industrial $291M | MKS Q1 2026 financial results | August 2, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 profitability | 47.0% gross margin, $84M GAAP net income, $277M adjusted EBITDA, and $2.30 non-GAAP diluted EPS | MKS Q1 2026 financial results | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 guidance | Revenue about $1,200M plus or minus $40M, gross margin about 47.0%, adjusted EBITDA about $328M, and non-GAAP EPS about $2.90 | MKS Q1 2026 financial results | August 2, 2026 |
| Balance sheet at March 31, 2026 | $569M cash, about $1.6B secured term loan principal, $1.4B convertible senior notes, and 1.0B euro senior notes due 2034 | MKS Q1 2026 financial results | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and net income | $3.93B revenue and $295M net income | MKS 2025 annual report | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus and target | Buy consensus, average target $410.77, low $265, high $600, and FY2026 non-GAAP EPS estimate $11.76 | StockAnalysis forecast page | August 2, 2026 |
| Technical references | 50-day $346.64, 200-day $244.67, RSI 41.28, and 20-day average volume 1.34M | StockAnalysis statistics snapshot | August 2, 2026 |
This page is an informational research tool, not investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation. Forecast scenarios use available public data and assumptions that can be wrong. Market prices, technical levels, financial results, and risk conditions can change quickly.
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