Motorola Solutions, Inc. research snapshot
MSI AI stock analysis reads Motorola Solutions, Inc. as a high-quality public safety, mission-critical communications, video security, and command center software business with durable government and enterprise demand. The analysis is scenario-based, not a certain price prediction. At the August 2, 2026 data cutoff, the latest verified close used here was $435.75 on July 31, 2026, market capitalization was about $72.33 billion using 166.0 million shares outstanding, and the trailing PE was about 35.1x with a forward PE near 25.3x. The main debate is whether backlog, software growth, and recurring service revenue can keep offsetting acquisition debt, a premium valuation, and execution risk ahead of the second quarter 2026 earnings report on August 5, 2026. This is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$435.75
Market cap
$72.33 billion
AI score
75 / 100
Rating
Quality public-safety compounder, premium valuation ahead of Q2 earnings
Trend status
Above key moving averages, RSI near 62, Q2 earnings due August 5
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Motorola Solutions sells mission-critical radio networks, public safety software, command center systems, video security, counter-drone systems, and managed services into agencies and enterprises that value reliability more than low price. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from installed radio systems, procurement trust, interoperability requirements, service contracts, software workflow lock-in, scale, and specialized public-safety domain knowledge. | High |
| Management | Greg Brown has led a long repositioning toward higher-margin software, services, video security, and public safety technology. The current test is acquisition discipline after the Silvus deal and the announced $1.5 billion D-Fend counter-drone purchase. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 net sales were $11.682 billion, FY2025 net income attributable to MSI was $2.154 billion, and Q1 2026 net sales grew 7.4% to $2.714 billion. | High |
| Valuation | Tool-checked valuation was about 35.11x TTM EPS, 6.10x TTM revenue per share, and 29.07x TTM free cash flow per share, so the stock still prices in quality and continued execution. | Medium |
| Technical trend | MSI closed at $435.75 on July 31, 2026, above the public 50-day and 200-day moving average references near $411.90 and $416.01, with RSI near 62.5. The short-term average sits just below the long-term average, so the setup is constructive but not perfectly aligned. | Medium |
| Risk level | Main risks are valuation compression, acquisition integration, public budget timing, product-cycle delays, leverage, the August 5 earnings event, and competition from Axon, L3Harris, Tyler, Genetec, Hytera, and technology shifts. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High confidence for descriptive research and source-backed numbers. Lower confidence for future returns because earnings multiples, public procurement, and acquisition outcomes are uncertain. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. The business is resilient, but the stock requires continued EPS growth and free cash flow to justify a premium entry price. | Medium |
MSI AI stock forecast
The MSI AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $435.75 cutoff price and TTM EPS near $12.41. financial_rigor.py produced a bullish three-year value near $529, a base case near $422, and a bearish case near $285 before dividends. These are scenario outputs, not promised targets. Analyst consensus is Buy with an average target of $507 and a range of $470 to $530.
$505 to $535
More likely if Software and Services keeps compounding at a double-digit rate, backlog converts cleanly, the D-Fend and Silvus acquisitions broaden the safety and security platform, and investors keep valuing MSI near a premium earnings multiple.
$405 to $440
More likely if EPS compounds at a mid-single to high-single digit rate, free cash flow remains solid, public-safety demand stays steady, and the market values MSI near the lower end of its recent earnings multiple range.
$270 to $300
More likely if public budgets slow, the August 5 earnings report disappoints, acquisitions dilute returns, leverage limits buybacks, hardware margins compress, or the market resets MSI toward a low-20s earnings multiple.
MSI AI technical analysis
MSI AI technical analysis starts from the $435.75 July 31 close used for this August 2 static page. StockAnalysis showed RSI 14 near 62.50, a 50-day moving average near $411.90, and a 200-day moving average near $416.01. That leaves MSI above both medium and long moving averages, but the 50-day average sits slightly below the 200-day average, so short-term momentum has cooled even as price holds up. The next scheduled catalyst is the second quarter 2026 earnings report on August 5, 2026. Because this page does not fetch request-time market data, traders should confirm levels on a live chart before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $435.75 | StockAnalysis showed the July 31, 2026 close used for this page. |
| Near support | $426 to $431 | The July 31 session low was $426.80 and the prior close was $430.82, making this the first demand zone below the current price. |
| Key support | $416 to $418 | Zone around the 200-day moving average near $416.01. Losing this area would weaken the medium-term trend. |
| Secondary support | $410 to $412 | Zone around the 50-day moving average near $411.90. A sustained break below both averages would point to a deeper reassessment. |
| Near resistance | $438 to $441 | The July 31 session high was $438.76. A clean close above this zone would improve short-term upside confirmation. |
| Higher resistance | $492.22 | StockAnalysis showed this as the upper end of the 52-week range around the cutoff. |
| 50-day moving average | About $411.90 | StockAnalysis reported this 50-day simple moving average at the August 1, 2026 data update. |
| 200-day moving average | About $416.01 | StockAnalysis reported this long-term trend reference at the same update. |
| Momentum | RSI 14 near 62.50 | StockAnalysis showed positive but not overbought relative strength, with room before the 70 overbought threshold. |
| Volume | 20-day average near 851,000 shares | StockAnalysis showed about 850,812 average daily shares over 20 days; July 31 volume was about 709,000 shares, below average. |
| Volatility | Confirm on live chart | The static sources used here did not provide a clean ATR field at this cutoff. The July 31 session range was $426.80 to $438.76, so position sizing should be confirmed on a live chart. |
| Invalidation | Close below $416, then $412 | A close below the 200-day area weakens the setup. A break below the 50-day average would require a fresh review of trend and risk. |
MSI AI trading strategy
The MSI AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework, not personalized advice. It combines filing-backed business evidence, technical confirmation, valuation discipline, position sizing, and clear invalidation levels, with extra care around the August 5, 2026 earnings release.
Look for MSI to hold above the $416 to $418 support zone and close above the $438 to $441 resistance area with improving volume before treating the short-term move as confirmed.
A failed breakout or daily close below the 200-day area should reduce confidence in the setup.
If MSI pulls back toward $410 to $418 without a thesis break, compare price stabilization with backlog, Software and Services growth, acquisition integration, and free cash flow conversion.
Do not average down solely because the public-safety business is resilient. Define maximum loss and review valuation first.
Review the August 5, 2026 earnings report for backlog, order trends, Software and Services growth, acquisition updates, and free cash flow, then compare the stock price against the refreshed technical levels.
An earnings gap can break either side of support and resistance. Confirm new levels after the report before acting.
Investment research summary
Motorola Solutions helps public safety agencies and enterprises communicate, coordinate, record, monitor, and respond in high-stakes environments. Customers pay because downtime, failed interoperability, or weak evidence workflows can carry severe operational costs.
The moat is installed mission-critical networks, procurement trust, training, service relationships, software workflow lock-in, scale, specialized technology, and the difficulty of replacing systems used by emergency responders.
The thesis fails if customers delay large projects, AI and video security returns disappoint, the D-Fend or Silvus integrations underperform, competitors win more software share, acquisitions dilute returns, leverage limits flexibility, or the market stops paying a quality premium.
Greg Brown has led a long shift from legacy hardware toward public safety technology, software, video security, and managed services. The key governance question is whether the $1.5 billion D-Fend purchase and the earlier Silvus deal keep producing owner returns after debt and integration costs.
Public safety modernization, real-time operations, evidence management, video analytics, counter-drone systems, command centers, and resilient communications are long-duration needs. The trend is favorable, but procurement cycles and government budgets can be uneven.
At roughly 35.1x TTM EPS and 29.1x TTM free cash flow per share, MSI does not screen as cheap. The margin of safety depends on durable backlog conversion, higher software mix, and disciplined acquisition payback.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| MSI price | $435.75 close on July 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis quote snapshot (S&P Global and CBOE price data) | August 2, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | About $72.33 billion, verified as $435.75 x 166.0 million shares outstanding | financial_rigor.py market-cap verification, cross-checked with StockAnalysis | August 2, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 166.0 million shares outstanding and 165.24 million float, down about 1.8% year over year | StockAnalysis statistics (S&P Global Market Intelligence) | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and net income | $11.682 billion revenue and $2.154 billion net income attributable to MSI, with EPS of $12.75 | StockAnalysis annual financials, cross-checked with the 2025 Form 10-K | August 2, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 net sales and earnings | $2.714 billion net sales, $366 million net earnings attributable to MSI, and $2.18 EPS for the quarter ended April 4, 2026 | StockAnalysis quarterly financials, cross-checked with the Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM revenue and net income | $11.868 billion revenue and $2.090 billion net income attributable to MSI, with TTM EPS of $12.41 | StockAnalysis TTM financials | August 2, 2026 |
| Segment mix | Q1 2026 Products and Systems Integration $1.559 billion and Software and Services $1.155 billion; TTM split $7.267 billion and $4.601 billion | StockAnalysis segment data | August 2, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | $886 million cash and investments and $9.459 billion total debt, for net debt of about $8.57 billion at April 4, 2026 | StockAnalysis balance sheet (S&P Global Market Intelligence) | August 2, 2026 |
| Free cash flow | TTM free cash flow of $2.488 billion and FY2025 free cash flow of $2.572 billion | StockAnalysis cash flow data, cross-checked with the FY2025 earnings release | August 2, 2026 |
| Valuation checks | 35.11x TTM PE, 6.10x TTM revenue per share, 29.07x TTM P/FCF, and 1.11% dividend yield | financial_rigor.py valuation verification using StockAnalysis inputs | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy from 14 analysts, average target $507, median $509, and a range of $470 to $530 | StockAnalysis forecast via S&P Global | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2026 estimates | Revenue consensus about $12.81 billion and non-GAAP EPS about $16.98, with free cash flow near $2.77 billion | StockAnalysis forecast via S&P Global and TipRanks | August 2, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | RSI 14 near 62.50, 50-day MA near $411.90, 200-day MA near $416.01, and 20-day average volume near 851,000 shares | StockAnalysis statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Recent events | D-Fend counter-drone acquisition for $1.5 billion announced June 1, 2026, and second quarter 2026 earnings scheduled for August 5, 2026 | StockAnalysis news feed and Business Wire press release | August 2, 2026 |
This MSI AI stock analysis page is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a personalized recommendation to buy, sell, short, or hold Motorola Solutions, Inc. Forecast scenarios are based on available data as of August 2, 2026, and may be wrong if filings, market prices, business conditions, public budgets, interest rates, acquisitions, regulation, or investor expectations change.
Design trading strategies visually with 10+ indicators. Set entry/exit conditions and risk management, then generate Pine Script code with no coding required.
Filter and discover stocks based on market cap, dividend yield, P/E ratio, sector, and more. Screen thousands of stocks with real-time data.
Smart AI-driven stock selection with fundamental screening, analyst estimates, and key metrics. Filter by P/E, market cap, dividends, and more.
