Johnson & Johnson research snapshot
JNJ AI stock analysis currently reads Johnson & Johnson as a high-quality healthcare compounder with strong Innovative Medicine and MedTech franchises, a larger oncology and neuroscience growth engine, solid free cash flow, and a talc litigation overhang that has narrowed sharply. At the August 2, 2026 data cutoff, JNJ traded near $256.35 with an implied market capitalization of about $617.78 billion. This page uses scenarios, technical levels, and source-backed facts. It is informational research, not investment advice.
Current price
$256.35
Market cap
$617.78 billion
AI score
75 / 100
Rating
High-quality healthcare compounder with a cleaner risk picture; valuation still near the upper end
Trend status
Holding above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages after a pullback from a 52-week high
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Johnson & Johnson sells patented medicines and medical technologies across oncology, immunology, neuroscience, cardiovascular, surgery, and vision. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from clinical evidence, patents, physician and surgeon trust, hospital relationships, regulatory expertise, scale, and a wide global commercial footprint. | High |
| Management | Joaquin Duato is steering JNJ toward focused growth in six key businesses while balancing the Firefly acquisition, the Sail partnership, dividends, litigation resolution, and the planned orthopaedics separation. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 sales rose 6.0% to $94.193 billion, Q1 2026 sales rose 9.9% to $24.062 billion, and Q2 2026 sales rose 6.6% to $25.310 billion with raised 2026 reported sales guidance near $101.1 billion at the midpoint. | High |
| Valuation | At $256.35, JNJ traded near 29.7x trailing-twelve-month EPS, 21.3x forward EPS, 6.3x sales per share, and 27.8x trailing free cash flow per share. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | Daily technical signals were neutral to constructive, with JNJ above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages after a pullback from a 52-week high, while RSI cooled to about 52. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are deal-related EPS dilution into 2027, patent loss and biosimilar pressure, R&D disappointment, orthopaedics separation execution, and multiple compression, with the talc overhang narrowed but not fully closed. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for descriptive research and arithmetic checks. Lower for exact price outcomes because healthcare stocks can reprice around court rulings, approvals, trial data, deal news, and guidance changes. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. JNJ is durable and the litigation picture is clearer, but a buy decision still depends on whether the investor accepts healthcare event risk and near-term deal dilution at a premium valuation. | Medium |
JNJ AI stock forecast
The JNJ AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $256.35 quote and the updated 2026 adjusted EPS guidance midpoint near $11.04. The audited three-year framework produced a bearish area near $164, a base area near $261, and a bullish area near $364 before dividends.
$345 to $385
More likely if oncology, neuroscience, and cardiovascular products keep compounding, MedTech accelerates with OTTAVA robotics and electrophysiology, the talc settlement closes cleanly, and investors pay a high-20s earnings multiple.
$250 to $280
More likely if adjusted EPS compounds around mid single digits once the Firefly and Sail dilution fades, Stelara pressure remains manageable, new product growth offsets losses of exclusivity, and the market values JNJ near a low-20s earnings multiple.
$160 to $185
More likely if deal-related EPS dilution lingers into 2027, litigation or separation costs rise, key launches disappoint, Stelara erosion accelerates, or investors compress the multiple toward the high teens.
JNJ AI technical analysis
JNJ AI technical analysis is neutral to constructive as of the August 2, 2026 cutoff. StockAnalysis.com reported JNJ closing near $256.35 on July 31, 2026, above its 50-day simple moving average near $245.20 and 200-day simple moving average near $226.43, with a 14-day RSI near 52.23 after cooling from overbought levels.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $256.35 | Close on July 31, 2026, used for market cap math at the August 2, 2026 cutoff. |
| Near support | $253 to $256 | The latest quoted day range placed the low near $253.29 and the prior close near $256.35. |
| Near resistance | $258 to $260 | The latest quoted day range high clustered near $258.48, making this a short-term resistance zone. |
| 50-day moving average | $245.20 | StockAnalysis.com listed the 50-day simple moving average near $245.20 as of August 1, 2026. |
| 200-day moving average | $226.43 | The price remained well above the 200-day simple moving average, supporting the long-term trend. |
| 52-week range | $164.23 to $274.90 | JNJ re-rated sharply over the past year, up about 53%, before pulling back from the 52-week high. |
| Momentum | 14-day RSI about 52.23 | The RSI cooled from overbought territory, leaving room for either a continuation move or more consolidation. |
| Volume | About 6.8 million recent shares | The July 31, 2026 session printed about 6.78 million shares against a 20-day average of about 7.84 million. |
| Volatility | Low large-cap healthcare volatility | Beta is near 0.23, so JNJ tends to move less than the market, but expect larger moves around earnings, deal news, court rulings, FDA decisions, and separation updates. |
| Invalidation | Close below $245, then $226 | A decisive break below the 50-day average near $245 would weaken the short-term setup. A break below the 200-day average near $226 would be a larger trend warning. |
JNJ AI trading strategy
The JNJ AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework for a durable healthcare stock consolidating below its 52-week high. It is not personal advice and should be paired with live quotes, filings, position sizing, and event checks.
Watch for JNJ to hold above the $253 to $256 support zone and reclaim the $258 to $260 resistance area with volume confirmation, with a new-high attempt near the $274.90 level as the extended target.
A close below $253, and especially below the 50-day moving average near $245, should invalidate the short-term setup.
If JNJ pulls back toward the 50-day moving average without a new litigation, guidance, deal, or product problem, compare the selloff with oncology, neuroscience, and MedTech growth evidence.
Do not average down without a defined loss limit because deal dilution and healthcare event risk can turn a technical support level into a thesis break.
Track Innovative Medicine sales, Darzalex, Carvykti, Tremfya, Spravato, Caplyta, Stelara erosion, OTTAVA robotics ramp, electrophysiology and Shockwave growth, talc settlement execution, Firefly and Sail EPS impact, and orthopaedics separation milestones.
Reduce confidence if EPS growth depends mainly on deal timing, one-time items, multiple expansion, or balance sheet leverage rather than durable product-level growth and cash conversion.
Investment research summary
Johnson & Johnson converts scientific research, regulatory approval, physician and surgeon adoption, hospital trust, and global distribution into recurring healthcare revenue across medicines and medical technology.
The moat is strongest where patents, clinical data, prescriber and surgeon familiarity, reimbursement access, and global scale reinforce each other. It narrows when exclusivity expires or a rival offers better efficacy, safety, workflow, or cost.
The thesis fails if deal-related EPS dilution from Firefly and Sail overshadows growth, the talc settlement stalls in execution, Stelara erosion accelerates, the orthopaedics separation distracts management, or the market stops paying a premium multiple.
Management has focused JNJ after the Kenvue separation, completed the Halda and Firefly acquisitions, entered a large Sail Biomedicines partnership, raised the dividend for 64 consecutive years, and is executing a planned orthopaedics separation.
Healthcare benefits from aging demographics, chronic disease, oncology innovation, and less invasive procedures, but the industry faces payer pressure, patent cliffs, regulatory scrutiny, litigation, and binary clinical outcomes.
JNJ is priced like a high-quality compounder, not a distressed healthcare name. Margin of safety depends on whether EPS growth recovers after the deal-related dilution and whether investors keep a premium earnings multiple.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| JNJ price | $256.35 | StockAnalysis.com quote snapshot | August 1, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $617.78 billion, verified as $256.35 x 2.41 billion shares | financial_rigor.py market cap verification | August 2, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 2.41 billion per StockAnalysis.com, with 2,440.1 million diluted shares in the Q2 2026 earnings release | StockAnalysis.com and Johnson & Johnson Q2 2026 earnings release | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 reported sales | $94.193 billion | Johnson & Johnson FY2025 results and StockAnalysis.com | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 net earnings and EPS | $26.804 billion, $11.03 diluted EPS, $10.79 adjusted EPS | Johnson & Johnson FY2025 results | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 results | $25.310 billion sales, $2.27 GAAP EPS, $2.90 adjusted EPS | Johnson & Johnson Q2 2026 earnings release | August 2, 2026 |
| First half 2026 results | $49.372 billion sales and $5.60 adjusted EPS | Johnson & Johnson Q2 2026 earnings release | August 2, 2026 |
| Updated 2026 guidance | Reported sales affirmed at $100.8 billion to $101.4 billion, while adjusted EPS guidance was cut about $0.64 to a midpoint near $11.04 | Johnson & Johnson 8-K July 29, 2026 and TheFly | August 2, 2026 |
| Trailing free cash flow | About $22.24 billion | StockAnalysis.com cash flow statement | August 2, 2026 |
| Cash, investments and debt | $20.76 billion cash and investments and $49.04 billion total debt at June 30, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com balance sheet | August 2, 2026 |
| Dividend | $5.36 per share, about 2.09% yield, ex-dividend August 25, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com dividend data | August 2, 2026 |
| Technical indicators | RSI near 52.23, 50-day SMA near $245.20, 200-day SMA near $226.43, 52-week range $164.23 to $274.90 | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 1, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy rating from 23 analysts with an average price target of $270.59 | StockAnalysis.com forecast | August 1, 2026 |
| Talc litigation | Proposed $5.5 billion resolution covering about 76,000 ovarian cancer claims announced July 27, 2026 | Johnson & Johnson press release, Reuters, and The Guardian | August 2, 2026 |
This JNJ AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell Johnson & Johnson, or a guarantee of future returns. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of August 2, 2026 and can be wrong if fundamentals, valuation, litigation, deal execution, regulation, or market conditions change.
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