Bullish case
$29 to $35
More likely if potash prices stay firm, phosphate raw material costs ease, Brazil margins recover, free cash flow turns positive, and MOS reclaims the $22.58 resistance area with better volume.
The Mosaic Company research snapshot
MOS AI Stock Analysis
MOS AI stock analysis currently reads The Mosaic Company as a cyclical fertilizer producer with valuable phosphate and potash assets, low price-to-book valuation, dividend support, and material pressure from sulfur costs, phosphate operating uncertainty, leverage, and weak technical momentum. The analysis uses scenario ranges, not a certain price prediction. At the July 8, 2026 data cutoff, the latest verified close used here was $21.12 on July 7, 2026, with an implied market capitalization of about $6.71 billion. This is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$21.12
Market cap
$6.71 billion
AI score
48 / 100
Rating
Cyclical value, elevated input-cost risk
Trend status
Downtrend below major moving averages
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 8, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
Research quality check
- information Richness
- A-level information richness. Mosaic has long public filings, company earnings releases, third-party market data, commodity-cycle coverage, and public technical snapshots.
- bias Check
- The main AI bias risk is treating MOS as a simple mean-reversion value stock because price-to-book looks low. This page separates asset value from near-term earnings pressure, sulfur cost inflation, phosphate guidance risk, and commodity-cycle uncertainty.
- ai Confidence
- High data confidence
- investment Certainty
- Medium-low. Historical financials, market-cap math, segment data, and balance-sheet items are well documented, but investment certainty is limited by fertilizer pricing, raw material cost swings, Brazil credit conditions, capital intensity, and technical weakness.
Quick verdict table
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Mosaic sells phosphate, potash, and Brazilian crop nutrients into agriculture markets where demand is essential but pricing and margins are cyclical. | Medium |
| Moat | Moat comes from mineral reserves, scale, integrated assets, logistics, and Canpotex export access, but commodity pricing limits durable pricing power. | Medium |
| Management | Bruce Bodine is steering a cost and portfolio reset, including Brazil asset actions, capex cuts, and phosphate operating reviews after Q1 2026 disruption. | Medium |
| Financial trend | 2025 net sales rose to $12.052 billion and net income was $541 million, but Q1 2026 swung to a $258 million net loss with negative free cash flow. | High |
| Valuation | Valuation screens inexpensive at about 0.57x book and 0.54x sales, but the trailing PE is distorted and forward value depends on normalized fertilizer margins. | Medium |
| Technical trend | MOS traded below its 60-day and 200-day moving averages, with public technical summaries showing a strong sell backdrop at the cutoff. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is high because sulfur, ammonia, phosphate utilization, Brazil credit, environmental liabilities, leverage, and crop nutrient prices can all move earnings quickly. | High |
| AI confidence | High for reported financials and market data. Lower for fertilizer price forecasts and share-price outcomes. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium-low certainty because asset value and crop nutrient demand are balanced against commodity-cycle and input-cost volatility. | Medium-low |
MOS AI stock forecast
MOS AI Stock Forecast Scenarios
The MOS AI stock forecast uses three-year scenario ranges around the $21.12 cutoff close. The financial-rigor model produced a bullish value near $32.10, a base value near $19.40, and a bearish value near $8.30 using forward EPS, growth, and terminal PE assumptions. These are scenario outputs, not promises.
Base case
$17 to $22
More likely if fertilizer prices stabilize but Q1 2026 cost pressure and capex needs keep earnings recovery gradual and valuation stays tied to mid-cycle asset returns.
Bearish case
$8 to $12
More likely if sulfur and ammonia remain elevated, phosphate production cuts deepen, Brazil credit stress persists, leverage concerns rise, or MOS breaks below the $20.66 support area.
MOS AI technical analysis
MOS AI Technical Analysis
MOS AI technical analysis uses the July 7, 2026 close of $21.12 and public technical snapshots available at the July 8, 2026 data cutoff. The setup was weak: MOS traded below its 60-day moving average near $22.74 and below its 200-day moving average near $26.19.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $21.12 | Latest verified close used for this page, dated July 7, 2026. |
| Near support | $20.66 | Intellectia cited this as strong support near the data cutoff. |
| Deeper support | $19.78 | A cited Fibonacci floor if MOS loses immediate support. |
| Near resistance | $22.58 | Immediate resistance from a public technical snapshot; reclaiming it would improve the short-term setup. |
| 60-day moving average | About $22.74 | MOS traded below this moving average, showing weak intermediate momentum. |
| 200-day moving average | About $26.19 | Trading below the 200-day average keeps the long-term trend negative. |
| Momentum | Weak | TradingView summarized MOS technicals as strong sell at the cutoff. |
| Volume | 7.72 million vs 9.61 million average | Robinhood reported July 8 intraday volume below average, so any rebound needs confirmation. |
| Volatility | Commodity-cycle sensitive | Fertilizer pricing, raw material costs, and guidance changes can produce sharp moves. |
| Invalidation | Close below $20.66, then $19.78 | A loss of support would keep the downtrend intact and push focus to the lower risk zone. |
MOS AI trading strategy
MOS AI Trading Strategy Framework
The MOS AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework. It is not personalized advice. Traders should pair the setup with live fertilizer prices, sulfur and ammonia costs, crop nutrient demand data, earnings releases, position sizing, and predefined invalidation levels.
Trend-following setup
Wait for MOS to reclaim $22.58, then watch whether price can hold above the 60-day moving average with improving volume and better phosphate cost commentary.
A failed reclaim of resistance or a close back below $20.66 invalidates the short-term trend setup.
Mean-reversion setup
If MOS stabilizes near support while potash pricing and raw material costs improve, compare downside to book value, leverage, and forward EPS before considering a reversion framework.
Do not treat low price-to-book as enough if free cash flow stays negative or phosphate guidance remains withdrawn.
Fundamental monitor
Track potash MOP prices, phosphate gross margin per tonne, sulfur and ammonia costs, Brazil credit, capex, operating cash flow, Maaden mark-to-market effects, and debt.
Reduce confidence when earnings depend on commodity price recovery while balance-sheet and environmental obligations remain high.
Investment research summary
Four-master Research Compression
Business essence
Mosaic converts mineral reserves, processing assets, and distribution reach into crop nutrients that farmers need, but the economics depend on commodity prices and input costs.
Moat
The moat is asset-based: reserves, scale, integrated phosphate and potash operations, logistics, and export channels. It is weaker than a branded moat because customers still respond to price and supply.
Munger risk inversion
The failure path is sustained sulfur and ammonia inflation, weak crop nutrient prices, Brazil credit stress, environmental cost surprises, high capex, and a low multiple that reflects real impairment risk.
Management
Management is being tested on cost reduction, Brazil portfolio decisions, phosphate operating discipline, capital spending cuts, and whether free cash flow can recover after Q1 2026 weakness.
Industry trend
Long-run food demand supports fertilizer need, but fertilizer producers remain exposed to farmer affordability, China exports, energy and sulfur markets, geopolitics, and weather.
Valuation and margin of safety
At $21.12, MOS embeds a weak-cycle view. Margin of safety depends on normalized earnings and cash flow, not only the discount to book value.
Source-backed data
MOS Data Table
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current price | $21.12 close on July 7, 2026 | Stock Analysis market cap page | July 8, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $6.71 billion as of July 7, 2026 | Stock Analysis market cap page | July 8, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 317.85 million shares | Stock Analysis statistics | July 8, 2026 |
| 2025 net sales | $12.052 billion | Mosaic 2025 Form 10-K | July 8, 2026 |
| 2025 net income | $541 million | Mosaic 2025 Form 10-K | July 8, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 net loss | $258 million net loss | Mosaic Q1 2026 earnings release | July 8, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 adjusted EBITDA | $416 million | Mosaic Q1 2026 earnings release | July 8, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | Forward PE 16.59, PS 0.54, PB 0.57 | Stock Analysis statistics | July 8, 2026 |
| Technical resistance and support | Resistance $22.58, support $20.66 | Intellectia MOS technical snapshot | July 8, 2026 |
| Long-term moving average | 200-day moving average about $26.19 | Intellectia MOS technical snapshot | July 8, 2026 |
Frequently Asked Questions
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This MOS AI stock analysis is an informational tool, not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future performance. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available public data as of July 8, 2026 and can be wrong if fertilizer prices, raw material costs, operations, regulation, capital markets, or company filings change.