Bullish case
$28 to $33
More likely if potash stays strong, sulfur and ammonia costs normalize, phosphate margins recover, free cash flow turns positive, and MOS reclaims $23.25 and then clears the 200-day moving average near $25.06.
The Mosaic Company research snapshot
MOS AI Stock Analysis
MOS AI stock analysis reads The Mosaic Company as a cyclical fertilizer producer with real phosphate and potash assets, a discount to book value, a 3.98% dividend yield, and a potash business that is holding up well, but also with near zero trailing profit, negative free cash flow, elevated sulfur and ammonia costs, phosphate production curtailments, and rising debt. The analysis uses scenario ranges, not a certain price prediction. At the August 2, 2026 data cutoff, the latest verified close was $22.12 on July 31, 2026, with a market capitalization of about $7.03 billion. Q2 2026 results are scheduled for August 4, 2026, and were not available at this cutoff. This is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$22.12
Market cap
$7.03 billion
AI score
46 / 100
Rating
Cyclical value, phosphate cost squeeze unresolved
Trend status
Testing the 50-day average, still below the 200-day average
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
Research quality check
- information Richness
- A-level information richness. Mosaic has decades of filings, company earnings calls, analyst coverage, third-party market data, and public technical snapshots.
- bias Check
- The main AI bias risk is treating MOS as a simple value buy because the price sits far below book value. This page separates asset value from near term earnings pressure, sulfur and ammonia cost inflation, phosphate curtailments, Brazil credit stress, and rising leverage.
- ai Confidence
- High data confidence for reported financials and market data; lower for fertilizer price paths and share price outcomes.
- investment Certainty
- Medium-low. Financials, market cap, balance sheet, and analyst targets are well documented, but certainty is limited by commodity prices, input costs, geopolitics, Brazil credit, capital intensity, and technical weakness.
Quick verdict table
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Mosaic sells phosphate, potash, and Brazilian crop nutrients into agriculture where demand is essential but margins follow commodity prices and raw material costs. | Medium |
| Moat | The moat is asset based: reserves, scale, integrated operations, logistics, and the Canpotex export channel, with potash performing better than phosphate in 2026. | Medium |
| Management | Bruce Bodine and CFO Luciano Siani are cutting 2026 capex to about $1.25 billion, idling weak Brazil assets, selling the Carlsbad mine, and managing working capital after a Q1 2026 net loss. | Medium |
| Financial trend | 2025 net sales were $12.052 billion with $541 million of net income, but Q1 2026 swung to about a $258 million net loss with negative free cash flow and near zero trailing profit. | High |
| Valuation | Valuation screens inexpensive at about 0.60x book value and 0.57x sales, but the trailing PE is distorted and forward value depends on normalized phosphate margins. | Medium |
| Technical trend | MOS traded near its 50-day moving average around $22.17 and below its 200-day moving average near $25.06, with a Strong Sell technical consensus at the cutoff. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is high because sulfur and ammonia costs, phosphate curtailments, Brazil credit, environmental liabilities, rising debt, and crop nutrient prices can move earnings quickly. | High |
| AI confidence | High for reported financials and market data. Lower for fertilizer price forecasts and share-price outcomes. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium-low certainty because asset value and potash demand are balanced against commodity-cycle and input-cost volatility. | Medium-low |
MOS AI stock forecast
MOS AI Stock Forecast Scenarios
The MOS AI stock forecast uses three-year scenario ranges around the July 31, 2026 close of $22.12. Analyst consensus is a Buy with an average target of $27.45 and a range of $19 to $35 across 20 analysts, but this page uses ranges because fertilizer prices and sulfur costs are not predictable. Consensus forecasts see fiscal 2026 EPS near $0.75 and fiscal 2027 EPS near $1.84. These are scenario outputs, not promises.
Base case
$20 to $25
More likely if sulfur costs ease only slowly, phosphate curtailments limit losses, potash carries results, and the stock keeps trading below book value while it consolidates between support and the 200-day moving average.
Bearish case
$15 to $19
More likely if sulfur stays expensive, phosphate margins stay under water, Brazil fertilizer use contracts, free cash flow stays negative, net debt keeps rising, or MOS breaks below $20.93 and the $19.80 52-week low.
MOS AI technical analysis
MOS AI Technical Analysis
MOS AI technical analysis uses the July 31, 2026 close of $22.12 and public technical snapshots available at the August 2, 2026 data cutoff. MOS traded near its 50-day moving average around $22.17 and below its 200-day moving average near $25.06. Intellectia rated the technical setup Strong Sell with 2 buy signals and 11 sell signals out of 13 indicators.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $22.12 | Latest verified close used for this page, dated July 31, 2026. |
| Near support | $21.70 | First support from Intellectia pivot calculations near the data cutoff. |
| Deeper support | $20.93 | A cited Fibonacci floor if MOS loses the first support level. |
| Major support | $19.80 | The 52-week low reached on June 10, 2026, from Stock Analysis price history. |
| Near resistance | $23.25 | Immediate resistance from Intellectia pivot calculations; a break above it would improve the short-term setup. |
| 50-day moving average | About $22.17 | MOS is testing this moving average, showing a neutral to weak intermediate momentum. |
| 200-day moving average | About $25.06 | Trading below the 200-day average keeps the long-term trend negative. |
| Pivot point | $22.48 | Intellectia listed this pivot level for intraday direction around the cutoff. |
| Momentum | Neutral, RSI about 48.9 | RSI is neutral, but the overall technical consensus remains Strong Sell at the cutoff. |
| Volume | 10.78 million vs 7.2 million 20-day average | Stock Analysis reported July 31 volume above average, so any rebound needs confirmation. |
| Volatility | Commodity-cycle sensitive | Fertilizer pricing, raw material costs, and the August 4, 2026 report can produce sharp moves. |
| Invalidation | Close below $21.70, then $20.93 | A loss of support would keep the downtrend intact and push focus toward the 52-week low. |
MOS AI trading strategy
MOS AI Trading Strategy Framework
The MOS AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework. It is not personalized advice. Pair the setups with live fertilizer prices, sulfur and ammonia costs, the August 4, 2026 Q2 report, position sizing, and predefined invalidation levels.
Trend-following setup
Wait for MOS to reclaim $23.25, then check whether price can hold above the 50-day moving average near $22.17 with improving volume and a clearer phosphate margin outlook.
A failed reclaim of resistance or a close back below $21.70 invalidates the short-term trend setup.
Mean-reversion setup
If MOS holds support near $21.70 while potash pricing stays firm and phosphate cost commentary improves, compare downside to book value near $37 per share, leverage, and forward EPS before considering a reversion framework.
Do not treat the low price-to-book multiple as enough if free cash flow stays negative or phosphate guidance remains withdrawn.
Fundamental monitor
Track potash prices, phosphate gross margin per ton, sulfur and ammonia costs, Brazil credit, capex, operating cash flow, working capital release, net debt, and the Q2 2026 report on August 4, 2026.
Reduce confidence when earnings depend on a commodity price recovery while debt and environmental obligations stay high.
Investment research summary
Four-master Research Compression
Business essence
Mosaic turns mineral reserves and processing assets into phosphate, potash, and Brazilian crop nutrients that farmers need, but the economics follow commodity prices and input costs.
Moat
The moat is asset based: reserves, scale, integrated operations, logistics, and the Canpotex export channel. Potash is holding up better than phosphate through the 2026 sulfur shock.
Munger risk inversion
The failure path is sustained high sulfur and ammonia costs, compressed phosphate margins, Brazil credit stress, rising debt, negative free cash flow, and a low multiple that reflects real impairment risk rather than a bargain.
Management
Management is cutting capex to about $1.25 billion, idling weak Brazil assets, selling the Carlsbad mine, and managing working capital to preserve cash through a phosphate downturn.
Industry trend
Long-run food demand keeps fertilizer essential, but producers face farmer affordability, China phosphate export limits, Middle East supply disruption, sulfur and ammonia markets, and weather.
Valuation and margin of safety
At $22.12, MOS trades at about 0.60x book value and 0.57x sales. Margin of safety depends on normalized earnings and cash flow, not only the discount to book value.
Source-backed data
MOS Data Table
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current price | $22.12 close on July 31, 2026 | Stock Analysis quote page | August 2, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $7.03 billion as of July 31, 2026 | Stock Analysis statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 317.85 million shares | Stock Analysis statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| 52-week range | $19.80 to $37.00 | Stock Analysis quote page | August 2, 2026 |
| 2025 net sales | $12.052 billion | Mosaic 2025 Form 10-K, cross-checked with Stock Analysis financials | August 2, 2026 |
| 2025 net income | $541 million | Mosaic 2025 Form 10-K, cross-checked with Stock Analysis financials | August 2, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 net loss | About $258 million net loss to common shareholders | Mosaic Q1 2026 results, Stock Analysis quarterly income statement | August 2, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 revenue | $2.998 billion | Stock Analysis quarterly income statement | August 2, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | Forward PE 21.03, PS 0.57, PB 0.60 | Stock Analysis statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy with average target $27.45 across 20 analysts | Stock Analysis forecast | August 2, 2026 |
| Technical resistance and support | Resistance $23.25, support $21.70, pivot $22.48 | Intellectia MOS technical snapshot | August 2, 2026 |
| Long-term moving average | 200-day moving average about $25.06 | Intellectia MOS technical snapshot, cross-checked with Stock Analysis statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 earnings date | August 4, 2026, after market close | Mosaic earnings date announcement | August 2, 2026 |
Frequently Asked Questions
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This MOS AI stock analysis is an informational tool, not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future performance. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available public data as of August 2, 2026 and can be wrong if fertilizer prices, raw material costs, operations, regulation, capital markets, or company filings change. Q2 2026 results were scheduled for August 4, 2026 and were not part of this analysis.
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