Nutrien Ltd. research snapshot
NTR AI stock analysis currently reads Nutrien Ltd. as a large integrated crop-input company with a differentiated mix of retail distribution, potash, nitrogen, and phosphate assets. At the July 11, 2026 data cutoff, the latest verified close used here was $66.76, and market-cap math using 480.02 million shares produced about $32.05 billion. FY2025 sales were $26.885 billion and Q1 2026 sales rose 19% year over year to $6.046 billion, but fertilizer prices, crop economics, natural gas, working capital, and debt can change earnings quickly. This page is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$66.76
Market cap
$32.05 billion verified market capitalization
AI score
64 / 100
Rating
Integrated crop-input leader with cyclical fertilizer earnings and balance-sheet risk
Trend status
Neutral, trading between the 50-day and 200-day moving averages
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 11, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Nutrien sells crop inputs, services, and financing through a large retail network while producing potash, nitrogen, and phosphate fertilizers for global agricultural markets. | High |
| Moat | Scale, mineral resources, low-cost Saskatchewan potash, integrated logistics, global distribution, farmer relationships, and the Retail channel create real barriers, although fertilizer pricing remains cyclical. | Medium-high |
| Management | Management is simplifying the portfolio, optimizing assets, funding automation and reliability, and returning capital. The key test is whether these actions improve free cash flow after capital spending and debt service. | Medium |
| Financial trend | FY2025 sales were $26.885 billion and net earnings were $2.297 billion. Q1 2026 sales rose to $6.046 billion and adjusted EBITDA rose to $1.105 billion, helped by stronger fertilizer benchmarks and volumes. | High |
| Valuation | At $66.76, financial_rigor.py calculates about 13.54x TTM EPS, 1.27x book value, 16.20x free cash flow per share, and a 3.36% annualized dividend yield. Cycle-normalized earnings matter more than a single multiple. | High |
| Technical trend | The $66.76 July 8 close was below the 50-day moving average near $68.06 but above the 200-day average near $66.24. RSI near 47.43 was neutral to soft. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is elevated because fertilizer prices, farm income, weather, natural gas, global supply, trade policy, currency, inventory, working capital, and debt can move earnings and cash flow sharply. | High |
| AI confidence | Source-backed descriptive confidence is high, but confidence in a specific share-price outcome is lower because agricultural and commodity variables can change faster than reported financials. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | NTR has tangible scale advantages, but margin of safety depends on conservative mid-cycle earnings and debt assumptions rather than on strong quarter results alone. | Medium-low |
NTR AI stock forecast
The NTR AI stock forecast uses scenarios rather than a certain price prediction. Using the $66.76 cutoff price, TTM EPS of $4.93, and an auditable three-year model, financial_rigor.py produces about $110.80 in a bullish case, $72.10 in a base case, and $34.60 in a bearish case. The published ranges remain wide because fertilizer benchmarks, volumes, input costs, capital spending, and valuation multiples can all change.
$100 to $115
More likely if potash and nitrogen supply stays tight, global crop demand remains resilient, Retail earnings reach guidance, asset reliability holds, debt remains manageable, and investors apply a mid-teens earnings multiple.
$65 to $75
More likely if fertilizer prices and volumes stay supportive but normalize enough to keep EPS growth near a mid-single-digit rate and valuation near 13x earnings.
$30 to $40
More likely if fertilizer prices fall, farmer affordability deteriorates, supply or exports increase, natural-gas costs rise, working capital absorbs cash, asset reviews disappoint, or the market prices NTR on trough earnings.
NTR AI technical analysis
NTR AI technical analysis is neutral as of the July 11, 2026 data cutoff. StockAnalysis listed a July 8 close of $66.76, a 50-day moving average of $68.06, a 200-day moving average of $66.24, RSI of 47.43, and 20-day average volume near 3.24 million shares. Price was below the shorter average but only slightly above the longer trend reference.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $66.76 | Latest verified NYSE close used for this page, dated July 8, 2026. |
| Immediate support | $65 to $66 | This zone brackets the 200-day moving average near $66.24 and should be reconfirmed against live price and volume. |
| Deeper support | $62 to $64 | This area covers recent late-June trading levels and becomes more relevant if the 200-day reference fails. |
| Near resistance | $68 to $69 | This range includes the 50-day moving average near $68.06 and requires volume confirmation to improve the short-term setup. |
| Upper resistance | $70 to $72 | A sustained move through this band would require fresh evidence of fertilizer-market strength and company execution. |
| Moving averages | 50-day $68.06, 200-day $66.24 | The price was below the 50-day average and slightly above the 200-day average, a neutral configuration. |
| Momentum | RSI 47.43 | Momentum was neither oversold nor strong enough to establish a trend reversal by itself. |
| Volume | 20-day average near 3.24 million shares | Compare volume around earnings, fertilizer-price moves, crop reports, and capital-allocation updates with this baseline. |
| Volatility | Watch the August 5, 2026 confirmed earnings date | Results, guidance, nutrient pricing, natural-gas costs, inventory, and asset-review updates can create sharp moves. |
| Invalidation | Close below $65, then below $62 | A sustained break below the 200-day area weakens the mean-reversion framework and calls for a renewed fundamental review. |
NTR AI trading strategy
The NTR AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework, not personalized advice. It connects chart levels with potash and nitrogen benchmarks, farmer affordability, Retail margins, crop acres, natural-gas costs, sales volumes, working capital, capital spending, debt, dividends, buybacks, and asset-review developments.
Watch for NTR to hold the $65 to $66 support zone, regain $68 to $69, and then clear $70 to $72 with improving volume and results that support fertilizer pricing, Retail profitability, and cash generation.
A close below $65 weakens trend confidence, especially if nutrient benchmarks, volumes, free cash flow, or guidance deteriorate.
If NTR stabilizes near $62 to $66 without a material deterioration in fertilizer fundamentals or balance-sheet resilience, compare price with normalized earnings, free cash flow after capital spending, and debt obligations.
Do not treat a price decline as value without checking crop economics, supply additions, natural gas, working-capital needs, and whether portfolio actions improve earnings quality.
Track potash and nitrogen volumes and pricing, Retail adjusted EBITDA, proprietary-product margins, crop acres, natural-gas and sulfur costs, capital expenditures, debt, dividends, repurchases, and strategic alternatives for phosphate, Trinidad nitrogen, and Brazilian Retail.
Position sizing should reflect a global fertilizer and retail operator with commodity and seasonal exposure, not a precise AI price forecast.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Nutrien for fertilizers, seeds, crop protection, agronomy, services, and financing that help farmers produce crops. Nutrien combines upstream nutrient production with a large downstream retail route to market.
The moat combines potash reserves, production scale, low-cost assets, logistics, a broad Retail footprint, farmer relationships, global distribution, and operational expertise. Commodity products still limit persistent pricing power.
The thesis fails if fertilizer supply exceeds demand, farm income weakens, prices fall faster than costs, natural-gas costs rise, weather reduces applications, working capital consumes cash, debt burdens increase, or asset reviews fail to improve returns.
Management is judged on portfolio simplification, reliability, cost control, automation, capital spending, shareholder returns, and whether asset decisions raise free cash flow per share through the cycle.
Long-term food demand and soil nutrient replenishment support crop-input demand, while annual outcomes depend on crop prices, farmer affordability, energy costs, trade flows, geopolitical disruptions, weather, and global fertilizer capacity.
At $66.76, NTR trades on modest trailing earnings and book-value multiples under the selected inputs. Margin of safety requires an investor to underwrite lower mid-cycle earnings and cash flow after capital spending, not only the current fertilizer backdrop.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| NTR quote reference | $66.76 NYSE close on July 8, 2026 | StockAnalysis NTR price history | July 11, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $32.05 billion calculated from $66.76 x 480.02 million shares, matching the selected reported value with a 0.00% variance | Pineify financial_rigor.py and StockAnalysis NTR statistics | July 11, 2026 |
| Common shares outstanding | 480.02 million common shares as of May 5, 2026 | Nutrien Q1 2026 results | July 11, 2026 |
| FY2025 sales | $26.885 billion, cross-validated across Nutrien, StockAnalysis, and Macrotrends with a 0.00% variance | Nutrien FY2025 results | July 11, 2026 |
| FY2025 net earnings | $2.297 billion reported by Nutrien; third-party standardized net-income presentation differed by 1.31% because of attribution and normalization conventions | Nutrien 2025 Annual Report | July 11, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 results | $6.046 billion sales, $139 million net earnings, and $1.105 billion adjusted EBITDA | Nutrien Q1 2026 results | July 11, 2026 |
| Cash and debt at March 31, 2026 | $777 million cash, $2.766 billion short-term debt, and $9.861 billion long-term debt including current portion | Nutrien Q1 2026 results | July 11, 2026 |
| TTM valuation inputs | $4.93 EPS, $52.52 book value per share, $4.12 free cash flow per share, and $2.24 annualized dividend. PE 13.54x, PB 1.27x, P/FCF 16.20x, and yield 3.36% verified with financial_rigor.py. | StockAnalysis NTR statistics and Pineify financial_rigor.py | July 11, 2026 |
| Technical indicators | 50-day average $68.06, 200-day average $66.24, RSI 47.43, 20-day average volume 3.24 million shares, and August 5, 2026 confirmed earnings date | StockAnalysis NTR statistics | July 11, 2026 |
This NTR AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future returns. Forecast scenarios use public data available as of July 11, 2026 and may be wrong if crop economics, fertilizer supply and prices, energy costs, weather, working capital, debt, capital spending, portfolio actions, or market valuation changes.
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