Nutrien Ltd. research snapshot
NTR AI stock analysis as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff reads Nutrien Ltd. as the largest integrated crop-input company, combining a broad retail distribution network with potash, nitrogen, and phosphate production. At the July 31, 2026 close the verified price was $69.07, and market-cap math using 480.02 million shares produces about $33.16 billion versus the reported $33.07 billion, a 0.26% deviation. FY2025 sales were $26.885 billion and net earnings were $2.297 billion, while Q1 2026 sales rose 19% year over year to $6.046 billion with adjusted EBITDA of $1.105 billion. Fertilizer fundamentals tightened on Middle East supply disruption and stronger potash and nitrogen benchmarks, which pushed the shares higher in July before an Iran peace-deal announcement cooled the trade, and China export risk remains the market's main blind spot. The stock now trades above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages ahead of the confirmed August 5, 2026 Q2 earnings release. This page is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$69.07
Market cap
$33.07 billion verified market capitalization
AI score
66 / 100
Rating
Integrated crop-input leader with improving fertilizer momentum, cyclical earnings, and balance-sheet risk
Trend status
Positive but consolidating, holding above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages ahead of the August 5 earnings date
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Nutrien sells crop inputs, services, and financing through a large retail network while producing potash, nitrogen, and phosphate fertilizers for global agricultural markets, with TTM revenue near $26.88 billion. | High |
| Moat | Scale, mineral resources, low-cost Saskatchewan potash, integrated logistics, global distribution, farmer relationships, and the Retail channel create real barriers, although fertilizer pricing remains cyclical and supply can normalize. | Medium-high |
| Management | Management is simplifying the portfolio through the Profertil sale, a phosphate strategic review, Trinidad nitrogen options, and the New Madrid shutdown, while funding automation and reliability and returning capital. The key test is whether these actions improve free cash flow after capital spending and debt service. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 sales were $26.885 billion and net earnings were $2.297 billion. Q1 2026 sales rose 19% to $6.046 billion with adjusted EBITDA up 30% to $1.105 billion, helped by record potash volumes, stronger fertilizer benchmarks, and better Retail earnings. | High |
| Valuation | At $69.07, financial_rigor.py calculates about 14.01x TTM EPS, 1.32x book value, 14.07x free cash flow per share, and a 3.19% annualized dividend yield. The analyst consensus is Buy with a $77.49 average target. Cycle-normalized earnings matter more than a single multiple. | High |
| Technical trend | The $69.07 July 31 close was above the 50-day moving average near $66.63 and above the 200-day average near $66.97, a constructive configuration. RSI near 56.42 showed neutral-to-firm momentum after the July rebound. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is elevated because fertilizer prices, Middle East geopolitics, China export policy, farm income, weather, natural gas, sulfur, trade policy, currency, inventory, working capital, and debt can move earnings and cash flow sharply, with Q2 results due August 5, 2026. | High |
| AI confidence | Source-backed descriptive confidence is high, but confidence in a specific share-price outcome is lower because agricultural and commodity variables can change faster than reported financials. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | NTR has tangible scale advantages and improving momentum, but margin of safety depends on conservative mid-cycle earnings and debt assumptions rather than on strong quarter results alone. | Medium-low |
NTR AI stock forecast
The NTR AI stock forecast uses scenarios rather than a certain price prediction. Using the $69.07 cutoff price, TTM EPS of $4.93, and an auditable three-year model, financial_rigor.py produces about $109.60 in a bullish case, $74.20 in a base case, and $33.60 in a bearish case. The published ranges remain wide because fertilizer benchmarks, Middle East supply flows, Chinese exports, volumes, input costs, capital spending, debt, and valuation multiples can all change.
$100 to $115
More likely if potash and nitrogen supply stays tight, the Middle East disruption persists, Chinese exports stay limited, global crop demand remains resilient, Retail earnings reach guidance, asset reliability holds, and investors apply a higher mid-teens earnings multiple to cycle-peak earnings.
$70 to $78
More likely if fertilizer prices and volumes stay supportive but normalize enough to keep EPS growth near a mid-single-digit rate and valuation near 13x to 14x earnings, broadly in line with the $77.49 consensus target.
$28 to $38
More likely if an Iran peace deal removes the Hormuz premium, Chinese exports resume, fertilizer prices fall, farmer affordability deteriorates, natural-gas or sulfur costs rise, working capital absorbs cash, asset reviews disappoint, or the market prices NTR on trough earnings.
NTR AI technical analysis
NTR AI technical analysis is positive but consolidating as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff. StockAnalysis listed a July 31 close of $69.07, a 50-day moving average of $66.63, a 200-day moving average of $66.97, RSI of 56.42, and 20-day average volume near 2.10 million shares. Price reclaimed both averages during a July rebound tied to Middle East supply risk and then pulled back on Iran peace-deal headlines.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $69.07 | Latest verified NYSE close used for this page, dated July 31, 2026. |
| Immediate support | $66.5 to $67.5 | This zone brackets the 50-day average near $66.63 and the 200-day average near $66.97 and should be reconfirmed against live price and volume. |
| Deeper support | $63.5 to $65 | This area covers early-July lows around $63.91 to $64.57 and becomes more relevant if the moving-average support fails. |
| Near resistance | $70.5 to $71 | This range includes the July 30 high of $70.97 and requires volume confirmation to extend the short-term uptrend. |
| Upper resistance | $72 to $74 | A sustained move through this band, above the late-May high near $71.44, would require fresh evidence of fertilizer-market strength and company execution. |
| Moving averages | 50-day $66.63, 200-day $66.97 | The price was above both averages after holding below the 50-day in early July, a constructive configuration that needs confirmation above resistance. |
| Momentum | RSI 56.42 | Momentum was neutral to firm after the July rebound, not yet overbought, and not strong enough to signal a breakout on its own. |
| Volume | 20-day average near 2.10 million shares | Compare volume around earnings, fertilizer-price moves, Middle East headlines, crop reports, and capital-allocation updates with this baseline. |
| Volatility | Watch the August 5, 2026 confirmed earnings date | Results, guidance, nutrient pricing, Middle East supply flows, natural-gas and sulfur costs, inventory, and asset-review updates can create sharp moves. |
| Invalidation | Close below $66.5, then below $63.5 | A sustained break below the moving-average support zone weakens the constructive framework and calls for a renewed fundamental review. |
NTR AI trading strategy
The NTR AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework, not personalized advice. It connects chart levels with potash and nitrogen benchmarks, Middle East supply risk, China export policy, farmer affordability, Retail margins, crop acres, natural-gas and sulfur costs, sales volumes, working capital, capital spending, debt, dividends, buybacks, and asset-review developments.
Watch for NTR to hold the $66.5 to $67.5 support zone, regain $70.5 to $71, and then clear $72 to $74 with improving volume and Q2 results that support fertilizer pricing, Retail profitability, and cash generation.
A close below $66.5 weakens trend confidence, especially if nutrient benchmarks, volumes, free cash flow, guidance, or Middle East and China supply headlines deteriorate.
If NTR pulls back toward $63.5 to $67 without a material deterioration in fertilizer fundamentals or balance-sheet resilience, compare price with normalized earnings, free cash flow after capital spending, and debt obligations.
Do not treat a price decline as value without checking crop economics, China export risk, the Middle East supply premium, natural gas and sulfur, working-capital needs, and whether portfolio actions improve earnings quality.
Track potash and nitrogen volumes and pricing, Retail adjusted EBITDA, proprietary-product margins, crop acres, natural-gas and sulfur costs, capital expenditures, debt, dividends, repurchases, and strategic alternatives for phosphate, Trinidad nitrogen, and Brazilian Retail.
Position sizing should reflect a global fertilizer and retail operator with commodity, geopolitical, and seasonal exposure, not a precise AI price forecast.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Nutrien for fertilizers, seeds, crop protection, agronomy, services, and financing that help farmers produce crops. Nutrien combines upstream nutrient production with a large downstream retail route to market.
The moat combines potash reserves, production scale, low-cost assets, logistics, a broad Retail footprint, farmer relationships, global distribution, and operational expertise. Commodity products and normalizing supply still limit persistent pricing power.
The thesis fails if fertilizer supply exceeds demand, an Iran peace deal removes the Hormuz premium, Chinese exports resume, farm income weakens, prices fall faster than costs, natural-gas or sulfur costs rise, weather reduces applications, working capital consumes cash, debt burdens increase, or asset reviews fail to improve returns.
Management is judged on portfolio simplification through the Profertil sale and the phosphate, Trinidad, and New Madrid actions, plus reliability, cost control, automation, capital spending, shareholder returns, and whether asset decisions raise free cash flow per share through the cycle.
Long-term food demand and soil nutrient replenishment support crop-input demand, while annual outcomes depend on crop prices, farmer affordability, Middle East supply disruption, China export policy, energy and sulfur costs, trade flows, weather, and global fertilizer capacity.
At $69.07, NTR trades on modest trailing earnings, book, and free-cash-flow multiples under the selected inputs, with a 3.19% dividend yield and a $77.49 analyst consensus target. Margin of safety requires underwriting lower mid-cycle earnings and cash flow after capital spending, not only the current fertilizer backdrop.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| NTR quote reference | $69.07 NYSE close on July 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis NTR price history | August 2, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $33.07 billion reported, versus $33.16 billion calculated from $69.07 x 480.02 million shares, a 0.26% variance | Pineify financial_rigor.py and StockAnalysis NTR statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Common shares outstanding | 480,023,548 common shares as of May 5, 2026 | Nutrien Q1 2026 results | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 sales | $26.885 billion, cross-validated across Nutrien and StockAnalysis with a 0.01% variance | Nutrien FY2025 results | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 net earnings | $2.297 billion reported by Nutrien on FY2025 sales of $26.885 billion, with FY2025 adjusted EBITDA of $6.046 billion | Nutrien FY2025 results | August 2, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 results | $6.046 billion sales up 19%, $139 million net earnings, $1.105 billion adjusted EBITDA up 30%, and adjusted EPS of $0.51 | Nutrien Q1 2026 results | August 2, 2026 |
| Cash and debt at March 31, 2026 | $777 million cash, $2.766 billion short-term debt, and $9.861 billion long-term debt including current portion | Nutrien Q1 2026 results | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM valuation inputs | $4.93 EPS, $52.32 book value per share, $4.91 free cash flow per share, and $2.20 annualized dividend. PE 14.01x, PB 1.32x, P/FCF 14.07x, and yield 3.19% verified with financial_rigor.py. Analyst consensus Buy with a $77.49 average target across 24 analysts. | StockAnalysis NTR statistics and Pineify financial_rigor.py | August 2, 2026 |
| Technical indicators | 50-day average $66.63, 200-day average $66.97, RSI 56.42, 20-day average volume 2.10 million shares, 52-week range $53.03 to $85.36, and August 5, 2026 confirmed earnings date | StockAnalysis NTR statistics | August 2, 2026 |
This NTR AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future returns. Forecast scenarios use public data available as of August 2, 2026 and may be wrong if crop economics, fertilizer supply and prices, Middle East geopolitics, Chinese exports, energy and sulfur costs, weather, working capital, debt, capital spending, portfolio actions, or market valuation changes.
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