Molina Healthcare, Inc. research snapshot
MOH AI stock analysis as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff reads Molina Healthcare as a Medicaid-scale managed care company trading through a difficult 2026 after its July 22, 2026 Q2 report. The stock closed at $195.62 on July 31, 2026, down about 16% from the July 10 close near $233.31 and about 20% from the July 52-week high near $244.89, leaving a market capitalization near $10.19 billion on about 52.09 million shares outstanding per the StockAnalysis.com quote and statistics pages and the Q2 2026 Form 10-Q cover, which lists about 52.2 million shares as of July 17, 2026. Q2 2026 delivered total revenue of $10.874 billion, premium revenue of $10.244 billion down 6%, GAAP net income of $60 million down 76%, and GAAP EPS of $1.19 versus $4.75 a year ago, while adjusted EPS fell 74% to $1.51 and the consolidated medical care ratio rose to 92.2% from 90.4%. Management raised full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance by $0.25 to at least $5.25 and GAAP EPS guidance to at least $2.15, held premium revenue guidance near $42 billion, and stated 2026 earnings power of at least $7.75 per share before $2.50 of non-recurring losses from the Florida Kids Medicaid ramp and the traditional MAPD product exit. The offsetting factor is the Marketplace segment, which swung from a small gain to an expected full-year loss near $0.75 per share on prior-year risk adjustment and program integrity items and unfavorable member acuity mix, with Marketplace membership down to 283,000 from 690,000 a year earlier. The stock still trades near 37 times the raised adjusted EPS floor and below its 5-day, 20-day, and 50-day moving averages, with 14-day RSI near 35.64. This page is an information tool for research and risk control, not investment advice.
Current price
$195.62
Market cap
$10.19 billion
AI score
51 / 100
Rating
Managed care recovery story with compressed margins, elevated forward multiple, and 2027-dependent earnings
Trend status
Downtrend below the 5-day, 20-day, and 50-day moving averages after the Q2 report, holding above the 100-day and 200-day trend lines
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Molina runs Medicaid, Medicare, and Marketplace health plans with about 4.9 million members, TTM revenue near $44.5 billion, and a consolidated medical care ratio of 92.2% in Q2 2026, which leaves plan margins near 1% to 1.3%. | Medium-high |
| Moat | The moat rests on state contracts such as the sole-selected Florida Kids Medicaid award, local plan operations, provider networks, regulatory know-how, and Medicaid scale, but contracts are rebid, membership can exit, and pricing is state-regulated. | Medium |
| Management | CEO Joseph Zubretsky and CFO Mark Keim are raising adjusted EPS guidance to at least $5.25, shrinking the Marketplace footprint through deliberate rate increases, exiting traditional MAPD for 2027, ramping the Florida Kids program, and laying out more than $10 of 2027 EPS building blocks. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Q2 2026 GAAP EPS fell 76% to $1.19 and adjusted EPS fell 74% to $1.51, with the consolidated MCR up to 92.2%, while H1 2026 operating cash flow improved to $788 million from an outflow of $112 million and full-year adjusted EPS guidance was raised to at least $5.25. | High |
| Valuation | At $195.62, MOH trades near 37x the raised adjusted EPS floor of at least $5.25, about 27.9x forward earnings on the S&P basis, near 2.4x book value, and near 0.24x sales, with no trailing GAAP PE because TTM net income is a small loss. | Medium |
| Technical trend | MOH closed at $195.62 on July 31, 2026, below its 5-day, 20-day, and 50-day moving averages but above its 100-day and 200-day moving averages, with 14-day RSI near 35.64 and 14-day ADX near 31.85 with negative directional bias after the post-earnings drop. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are Medicaid rate lag against a 5% medical cost trend, Marketplace losses from prior-year risk adjustment and member acuity mix, the Florida Kids ramp, MAPD run-off, regulatory rate-setting, thin plan margins, and securities litigation including a consolidated class action. | High |
| AI confidence | High for descriptive facts and cross-checked math that matched across StockAnalysis.com, SEC EDGAR XBRL, the Q2 2026 earnings release, the Q2 2026 Form 10-Q, and the Q2 2026 earnings call transcript. Lower for forward return estimates because rate updates, Marketplace mix, and medical cost trend are uncertain. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium-low certainty. The recovery math depends on non-recurring items reversing, rate increases materializing, and Marketplace stabilization, so the page gives a framework and scenarios, not a buy or sell instruction. | Medium-low |
MOH AI stock forecast
The MOH AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the July 31, 2026 close of $195.62, the raised 2026 adjusted EPS floor of at least $5.25, and the 2027 EPS building blocks that management sums to more than $10 per share. The three-scenario framework produced a bearish area near $77, a base area near $157, and a bullish area near $270 before dividends, using adjusted EPS outcomes near $7, $10.50, and $15 and exit multiples of 11x, 15x, and 18x over three years. These are scenarios, not price commitments.
$245 to $295
More likely if January 2027 Medicaid rate updates begin correcting the estimated 300 basis point market underfunding, Marketplace stabilizes near break-even, Florida Kids reaches target margins in year two, Medicare duals margins move toward the 2.5% target, and investors apply a high-teens multiple to restored EPS.
$140 to $175
More likely if the 2027 EPS building blocks of more than $10 per share are mostly realized, adjusted EPS grows into the low teens over three years, and the market holds the stock near a mid-teens multiple because rate and medical-cost volatility remain visible.
$65 to $90
More likely if medical costs again outrun rates, Marketplace losses persist, Florida Kids ramps slower than the $6 billion run-rate plan or costs more than guided, MAPD run-off grows, or the market compresses the multiple toward the 10x to 11x area as the earnings recovery disappoints.
MOH AI technical analysis
MOH AI technical analysis turned negative in the short term as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff. The stock closed at $195.62 on July 31, 2026, below its 5-day moving average near $197.83, its 20-day near $219.50, and its 50-day near $206.45, but still above its 100-day near $183.51 and 200-day near $172.67. After peaking near $244.89 in July, the stock sold off after the July 22 Q2 report, with 14-day RSI near 35.64 and 14-day ADX near 31.85 with negative directional bias, so the 100-day and 200-day areas are the key tests.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $195.62 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote at the July 31, 2026 close, with a day range of $192.83 to $196.77; market cap math uses 52.09 million shares outstanding. |
| 5-day moving average | $197.83 | Barchart reported the 5-day moving average near $197.83, just above the July 31 close, signaling the immediate momentum is still soft after the post-earnings drop. |
| Near support | $183 to $185 | The 100-day moving average was near $183.51 on July 31, 2026, a natural first pullback support zone below the current price. |
| Next support | $172 to $175 | The 200-day moving average was near $172.67 on July 31, 2026, and this area also overlaps the late-June breakout zone, forming a key support cluster. |
| Near resistance | $197 to $207 | The 5-day average near $197.83 and the 50-day average near $206.45 sit overhead, so bulls need a close back above this zone to repair the short-term trend. |
| Resistance zone | $219 to $221 | The 20-day moving average was near $219.50 on July 31, 2026, well above price and a strong sign of how far the stock corrected after the report. |
| 20-day moving average | $219.50 | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com both placed the 20-day moving average near $219.50, above the current price after the sharp July drop. |
| 50-day moving average | $206.45 | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com both reported the 50-day moving average near $206.45 on July 31, 2026, now above price after the selloff. |
| 200-day moving average | $172.67 | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com both reported the 200-day trend line near $172.67, still below price and the main medium-term support reference. |
| Momentum | RSI near 36 | 14-day RSI was near 35.64 and 9-day RSI near 27.65 on Barchart, weak and approaching oversold, so the next earnings and rate update matters more than the oscillator alone. |
| Volume | About 1.62 million average shares | Barchart listed 20-day average volume near 1.62 million shares and StockAnalysis.com near 1.62 million on July 31, 2026, with the July 31 session at about 681,000 shares. |
| Volatility | Elevated after the Q2 report | Barchart reported 14-day historical volatility near 44.41% and 9-day near 47.99%, so position sizing should account for larger swings around reports, rate updates, and policy news. |
| Invalidation | Close below $173 | A decisive close below the 200-day moving average near $172.67 would break the medium-term uptrend; a recovery attempt needs a close back above the 50-day near $206.45. |
MOH AI trading strategy
The MOH AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework for trading and watching the managed care recovery. It is not personal advice and should be paired with fresh chart data, filings, medical cost trend, rate updates, position sizing, and a defined invalidation level.
Watch for MOH to reclaim its 5-day moving average near $197.83 and the 50-day near $206.45 on rising volume, with the 200-day trend line near $172.67 still below price, while quarterly results confirm stable or better Medicaid and Medicare MCR.
A daily close below the 200-day moving average near $172.67, or a failed test of the 20-day near $219.50, should trigger a stop and review, especially if guidance language points to higher medical costs.
If MOH pulls back toward the $183 to $173 support cluster without a new underwriting shock, compare the price reaction with Q3 medical cost trend, Medicaid rate updates, Marketplace membership, and Florida Kids timing before acting.
Do not average down without a maximum loss rule because a Medicaid rate or Marketplace risk-adjustment surprise can turn a support zone into a falling knife.
Track Medicaid, Medicare, and Marketplace MCR, Marketplace membership and risk adjustment, medical cost trend near 5%, premium revenue guidance near $42 billion, adjusted EPS guidance of at least $5.25, Florida Kids implementation, MAPD run-off, parent cash near $290 million, debt-to-capital near 47%, and buyback resumption from the $500 million remaining authorization.
Reduce confidence if adjusted EPS growth depends mainly on reversing one-time losses rather than on organic premium growth and stable MCR.
Investment research summary
Governments and members pay Molina to administer health coverage for Medicaid, Medicare, and Marketplace populations that need access, provider networks, claims processing, compliance, and cost management. In FY2025, premium revenue was about $43.05 billion, with Medicaid about $32.24 billion, Medicare about $6.24 billion, and Marketplace about $4.49 billion.
The moat is strongest in state relationships, local plan operations, provider networks, regulated claims systems, and Medicaid scale, and is being extended by the sole-selected Florida Kids award, but it is narrower than headline revenue suggests if rates lag costs or a state rebids contracts away from Molina.
The thesis fails if medical costs keep running near a 5% trend while rate increases lag, if Marketplace losses persist on risk adjustment and member acuity mix, if Florida Kids ramps slower than the $6 billion run-rate plan, if MAPD run-off costs exceed the $1.00 guide, or if the elevated multiple compresses as the earnings recovery disappoints.
Joseph Zubretsky has led Molina as CEO since 2017 with Mark Keim as CFO. Recent decisions include shrinking Marketplace exposure through deliberate rate increases of 15% to 45%, exiting traditional MAPD for 2027 with a $93 million impairment, raising adjusted EPS guidance to at least $5.25, and laying out more than $10 of 2027 EPS building blocks toward a $25 EPS target in 2029.
Managed care is tied to public budgets, Medicaid redeterminations, state procurement, dual-eligible growth, and medical inflation. Molina calls 2026 the trough year for Medicaid margins and expects January 2027 rate updates to begin correcting the estimated 300 basis point underfunding in the Managed Medicaid market.
At $195.62 and roughly 37x the raised adjusted EPS floor of at least $5.25, the stock prices in a substantial recovery from the 2025 earnings reset. Margin of safety depends less on revenue scale and more on whether the $5.25 floor holds and the 2027 building blocks of more than $10 per share materialize, since trailing GAAP earnings are a small loss.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| MOH price | $195.62 at the July 31, 2026 close, day range $192.83 to $196.77 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $10.19 billion, computed as $195.62 x 52.09 million shares outstanding | StockAnalysis.com quote and share statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 52.09 million shares outstanding per the StockAnalysis.com statistics page; about 52.2 million shares as of July 17, 2026 per the Q2 2026 Form 10-Q cover | StockAnalysis.com statistics and Molina Q2 2026 Form 10-Q | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 GAAP results | Total revenue $10.874 billion, premium revenue $10.244 billion down 6%, GAAP net income $60 million down 76%, GAAP EPS $1.19 versus $4.75 | Molina Q2 2026 earnings release (8-K exhibit 99.1) | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 adjusted results | Adjusted net income $77 million and adjusted EPS $1.51, down 74% from $5.48, with an adjusted pre-tax margin of 1% and adjusted G&A ratio of 6.5% | Molina Q2 2026 earnings release and earnings call | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 medical care ratios | Consolidated MCR 92.2% versus 90.4%; Medicaid 92.7% versus 91.3%; Medicare 90.7% versus 90.0%; Marketplace 88.9% versus 85.4% | Molina Q2 2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| Membership | 4,926,000 members as of June 30, 2026 versus 5,746,000 a year earlier: Medicaid 4,418,000, Medicare 224,000, Marketplace 283,000, Other 1,000 | Molina Q2 2026 earnings release and Q2 2026 Form 10-Q | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 segment premium revenue | Medicaid $8.049 billion, Medicare $1.565 billion, Marketplace $628 million, Other $2 million, total $10.244 billion | Molina Q2 2026 Form 10-Q | August 3, 2026 |
| 2026 guidance raise | Adjusted EPS raised by $0.25 to at least $5.25, GAAP EPS at least $2.15, premium revenue unchanged near $42 billion; 2026 earnings power of at least $7.75 before $2.50 of non-recurring losses from Florida Kids and the MAPD exit | Molina Q2 2026 earnings release and earnings call | August 3, 2026 |
| 2027 and 2029 outlook | 2027 premium outlook near $46.5 billion with EPS building blocks of more than $10 per share; 2029 premium target of $64 billion and EPS target of $25 | Molina Q2 2026 earnings call and Investor Day 2026 | August 3, 2026 |
| Florida Kids Medicaid contract | Sole-selected award to serve about 120,000 enrollees of the Florida Childrens Medical Services program, expected to commence October 1, 2026 and run through January 2030, with a full program run rate near $6 billion | Molina Q2 2026 Form 10-Q and Q2 2026 earnings call | August 3, 2026 |
| MAPD product exit | Decision in February 2026 to exit the traditional Medicare Advantage Prescription Drug product for 2027, with a $93 million intangible impairment in H1 2026 | Molina Q2 2026 Form 10-Q | August 3, 2026 |
| Balance sheet | Cash and cash equivalents $4.985 billion, investments $3.930 billion, total debt near $3.953 billion, long-term debt $3.769 billion, total assets $16.003 billion, total stockholders equity $4.171 billion, and parent company cash near $290 million as of June 30, 2026 | Molina Q2 2026 Form 10-Q and earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| H1 2026 cash flow and capital returns | Operating cash flow of $788 million versus an outflow of $112 million a year earlier; no common stock purchases in H1 2026 versus $500 million a year earlier; about $500 million remaining on the buyback authorization through December 31, 2026 | Molina Q2 2026 Form 10-Q | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 results | Total revenue $45.426 billion up 11.75%, GAAP net income $472 million down about 60%, GAAP diluted EPS $8.92, and premium revenue near $43.05 billion across Medicaid, Medicare, and Marketplace | StockAnalysis.com financials and SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM results | TTM revenue near $44.52 billion, TTM net income about negative $7 million, and TTM EPS negative $0.14, so a trailing GAAP PE is not meaningful | StockAnalysis.com financials and statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Valuation snapshot | Forward PE 27.91 on the S&P basis versus about 37.3x computed as $195.62 divided by the raised adjusted EPS floor of at least $5.25; PS 0.24, forward PS 0.22, PB 2.44, P/FCF 37.60, EV/EBITDA 24.68, EV/FCF 33.79 | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Book value | Book value of $4.171 billion and book value per share near $80 to $81 as of June 30, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com balance sheet and statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Hold with an average target of $209.12 across 19 analysts, low $147 and high $266, median $209 | StockAnalysis.com forecast and analyst ratings | July 29, 2026 |
| Analyst rating mix, July 2026 | 3 Strong Buy, 0 Buy, 15 Hold, 1 Sell out of 19 analysts | StockAnalysis.com forecast recommendation trends | July 29, 2026 |
| Recent analyst target updates | J.P. Morgan $191 to $220 on July 29, Truist $225 on July 29, Wells Fargo $235 to $220 on July 28, TD Cowen $230 to $200 on July 27, UBS $202 on July 24, RBC Capital $248 to $218, Barclays $184 to $180, BofA $250 to $260 | StockAnalysis.com forecast and news feed | July 29, 2026 |
| Consensus estimates | FY2026 revenue estimate $44.44 billion with adjusted EPS $5.24, FY2027 revenue $48.08 billion with adjusted EPS $9.74 | StockAnalysis.com forecast financial forecast | July 29, 2026 |
| Short interest | 3.33 million shares short, 6.40% of shares outstanding, 6.88% of float, 3.11 days to cover | StockAnalysis.com statistics short selling | August 3, 2026 |
| Trailing free cash flow | Operating cash flow of $365 million, capital expenditures of $94 million, and free cash flow of $271 million over TTM | StockAnalysis.com cash flow statement | August 3, 2026 |
| S&P MidCap 400 addition | Molina joined the S&P MidCap 400 at the open on July 22, 2026, replacing National Storage Affiliates Trust, after moving up from the S&P SmallCap 600 | S&P Dow Jones Indices press release via StockAnalysis.com news | July 16, 2026 |
| Medical cost trend and rates | Full-year 2026 medical cost trend guidance of 5% with a rate assumption of 4%; the Managed Medicaid market is estimated to be underfunded by 300 basis points, and every 100 basis points on MOH MCR is about $5 per share | Molina Q2 2026 earnings call | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 5-day SMA near $197.83, 20-day SMA near $219.50, 50-day SMA near $206.45, 100-day SMA near $183.51, 200-day SMA near $172.67, 14-day RSI near 35.64, 14-day ADX near 31.85, 14-day historical volatility near 44.41% | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com technical snapshots | August 3, 2026 |
This MOH AI stock analysis is an informational research tool, not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future return. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available filings, quote snapshots, and third-party data as of the stated cutoff date. They may be wrong, incomplete, or outdated after new earnings, medical cost updates, rate decisions, policy changes, market moves, or macro conditions.
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