Molina Healthcare, Inc. research snapshot
MOH AI stock analysis currently reads Molina Healthcare as a scaled Medicaid-centered managed care company recovering from a sharp 2025 medical-cost and rate-adequacy reset. At the July 12, 2026 data cutoff, MOH traded near $233.31 with a verified market cap near $12.16 billion on about 52.1 million shares. FY2025 total revenue reached $45.43 billion while GAAP net income fell to $472 million, and management reaffirmed 2026 premium revenue near $42 billion with adjusted EPS of at least $5.00 after a Q1 adjusted EPS of $2.35. The MOH AI stock forecast stays scenario-based because Medicaid rates, medical cost ratio, Marketplace mix, Medicare product changes, and state contract outcomes can move earnings quickly. This page is an information tool, not investment advice.
Current price
$233.31
Market cap
$12.16 billion verified market cap
AI score
57 / 100
Rating
Medicaid-focused managed care recovery case with thin margins and high medical-cost sensitivity
Trend status
Constructive rebound above 50-day and 200-day averages after the 2025 earnings reset, still earnings-event dependent
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Molina runs Medicaid, Medicare, and Marketplace health plans with a heavy government-sponsored membership base and low single-digit plan margins. | Medium-high |
| Moat | The moat comes from state contracts, local plan operations, provider networks, regulatory know-how, and Medicaid scale, but contracts can be rebid and pricing is tightly regulated. | Medium |
| Management | CEO Joseph Zubretsky has led since 2017 and is pruning lower-return products, reaffirming cautious 2026 guidance, and pointing to embedded growth from already-won contracts into 2027 and 2028. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue rose 11.75% to $45.43 billion while GAAP net income fell about 60% to $472 million. Q1 2026 premium revenue was about $10.2 billion with adjusted EPS of $2.35 and reaffirmed full-year adjusted EPS of at least $5.00. | High |
| Valuation | Using $233.31, TTM GAAP EPS near $3.38, 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of at least $5.00, and book value per share near $78.31, MOH screens near 69x trough GAAP earnings, about 47x the 2026 adjusted floor, and about 3.0x book. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | The stock sits above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages with neutral RSI after a rebound from the 52-week low near $121, but resistance is close to the recent $243.50 high. | Medium |
| Risk level | Main risks are medical cost inflation, Medicaid rate lag, Marketplace acuity, state contract losses, Medicare product transitions, regulatory capital limits, and thin operating margins. | High |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because company results and third-party data align. Forecast confidence is lower because claims costs, rates, and policy variables are unstable. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | MOH is not a simple compounder. It is a recovery and underwriting case where upside depends on medical-cost control and rate adequacy, not just revenue scale. | Medium-low |
MOH AI stock forecast
The MOH AI stock forecast uses the $233.31 price reference, 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of at least $5.00, and three-year scenario math. An audited recovery-oriented model from the $5.00 EPS floor produced a bullish area near $304, a base area near $121, and a bearish area near $43 before any dividends. The wide spread reflects a business where earnings can recover if medical costs and rates normalize, but can stay depressed if underwriting assumptions are wrong. Current pricing embeds a strong recovery, so the base case is not automatically supportive of the latest quote.
$280 to $310
More likely if Medicaid MCR stays controlled, adjusted EPS rebuilds toward the mid-teens over three years, Marketplace mix improves, Florida and other won contracts contribute, and investors pay a high-teens multiple for restored earnings power.
$110 to $130
More likely if adjusted EPS grows from the $5 floor into the high-single-digit to low-double-digit range and the market keeps a mid-teens multiple because policy risk and medical-cost volatility remain visible.
$40 to $50
More likely if medical costs again outrun rates, membership quality worsens, state contracts are lost or rebid at weaker terms, and investors apply a single-digit earnings multiple to depressed EPS.
MOH AI technical analysis
MOH AI technical analysis is cautiously constructive as of the July 12, 2026 cutoff. Market data listed a July 10 close of $233.31, a 52-week range of $121.06 to $243.50, and volume near 0.69 million shares versus an average near 1.1 million. Investing.com listed RSI near 51.64, a 50-day moving average near $231.61, and a 200-day moving average near $207.07. The useful framework is to separate a hold above the low-$200s from a failed test near the mid-$240s.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $233.31 | Yahoo Finance and Macrotrends close reference for July 10, 2026, used for market-cap and valuation checks. |
| Immediate support | $228 to $232 | This area overlaps the 50-day moving-average reference near $231.61 and recent early-July closes. |
| Deeper support | $200 to $210 | This band brackets the 200-day moving-average reference near $207.07 and the late-June breakout zone. |
| Near resistance | $240 to $244 | The recent 52-week high near $243.50 is the first breakout area bulls need to clear with stronger volume. |
| Moving averages | 50-day near $231.61, 200-day near $207.07 | Price is above both references, which supports the 2026 recovery trend but leaves limited room if earnings commentary disappoints. |
| Momentum | RSI near 51.64 | Momentum is neutral rather than overheated, so the next medical-cost and guidance update matters more than a pure oscillator reading. |
| Volume | Recent volume near 0.69 million shares | Volume was below the roughly 1.1 million average cited by market data reports, so a breakout needs stronger participation to confirm demand. |
| Volatility | 52-week range $121.06 to $243.50 | The wide range shows how quickly managed care underwriting resets can reprice the stock. |
| Invalidation | Close below $207, then below $180 | A break below the 200-day area would weaken the recovery trend. A move below $180 would argue the 2026 rebound is losing sponsorship. |
MOH AI trading strategy
The MOH AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It connects price behavior with Medicaid MCR, premium revenue guidance, adjusted EPS guidance, Marketplace membership, Medicare product exits, cash at the parent, long-term debt, and state contract news.
Watch for MOH to clear the $240 to $244 resistance band while quarterly results confirm stable or better Medicaid MCR, reaffirmed or raised adjusted EPS guidance, and no new adverse rate or policy shock.
A failed breakout followed by a close below $207 should reduce trend confidence, especially if guidance language points to medical-cost pressure or weaker Marketplace risk adjustment.
If MOH pulls back toward the $110 to $130 base-case zone without a new structural underwriting shock, compare the lower price with membership scale, parent liquidity, book value near $78, and the $5 adjusted EPS floor.
Do not treat a lower price as attractive if the pullback is tied to rate inadequacy, major contract losses, or another withdrawal of guidance.
Track Medicaid MCR, Medicare MCR, Marketplace membership, premium revenue guidance near $42 billion, adjusted EPS guidance of at least $5.00, parent company cash and investments, long-term debt near $3.77 billion, and state procurement outcomes.
Position sizing should reflect that MOH is a regulated healthcare payer with earnings leverage to assumptions, not a predictable software-style compounder.
Investment research summary
Governments and members pay Molina to administer health coverage for Medicaid, Medicare, and Marketplace populations that need access, provider networks, claims processing, compliance, and cost management. In FY2025, premium revenue was about $43.05 billion, with Medicaid about $32.24 billion, Medicare about $6.24 billion, and Marketplace about $4.49 billion.
The moat is strongest in state relationships, local plan operations, provider networks, regulated claims systems, and Medicaid scale. It is narrower than headline revenue suggests if rates lag costs or if a state rebids contracts away from Molina.
The thesis fails if medical costs outrun rates, if Marketplace morbidity again exceeds assumptions, if Medicaid redeterminations or policy changes pressure membership quality, if Medicare product transitions create run-off costs, or if regulators and states demand lower margins on already thin plan economics.
Joseph Zubretsky has led Molina since 2017 with a capital-markets and insurance background. Recent decisions include exiting lower-priority products such as Virginia Medicaid and MAPD for 2027, booking related impairment, reaffirming cautious 2026 guidance, and highlighting embedded growth from already-won contracts such as Florida CMS KidCare.
Managed care benefits from government outsourcing, dual-eligible growth, and the need for cost control, but the industry is always tied to public budgets, benefit design, state procurement, medical inflation, and political scrutiny.
At $233.31, the stock prices in a strong recovery from the 2025 earnings reset rather than a fully discounted trough. Margin of safety depends less on revenue scale and more on whether adjusted EPS of at least $5.00 becomes a durable floor that can rebuild toward prior-cycle earnings power.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| MOH quote reference | $233.31 close on July 10, 2026 | Yahoo Finance MOH quote and Macrotrends price history | July 12, 2026 |
| Market cap and shares outstanding | $12.16 billion market cap on about 52.1 million shares; company balance sheet showed 52 million shares outstanding at March 31, 2026 | Yahoo Finance key statistics and Molina Q1 2026 results | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 total revenue | $45.426 billion, up 11.75% from $40.650 billion in 2024 | Macrotrends MOH revenue and Molina FY2025 results | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 GAAP net income and diluted EPS | $472 million GAAP net income, $8.92 diluted EPS | Macrotrends MOH net income and Molina year-end 2025 results | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 premium revenue mix | Premium revenue $43.052 billion: Medicaid $32.240 billion, Medicare $6.235 billion, Marketplace $4.487 billion, Other $90 million | Molina Healthcare FY2025 Form 10-K annual report | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 operating results and 2026 guidance | Premium revenue about $10.2 billion; GAAP EPS $0.27; adjusted EPS $2.35; full-year 2026 premium revenue about $42 billion and adjusted EPS at least $5.00 | Molina Q1 2026 earnings release and SEC exhibit | July 12, 2026 |
| Balance-sheet liquidity and debt | Cash and cash equivalents $5.314 billion; long-term debt $3.767 billion; parent company cash and investments about $213 million as of March 31, 2026 | Molina Q1 2026 consolidated balance sheet | July 12, 2026 |
| Book value and valuation references | Book value per share about $78.31; TTM GAAP EPS about $3.38 implies PE near 69x at $233.31 | Kraken quote statistics and GuruFocus PE summary | July 12, 2026 |
| Technical references | RSI 51.636; 50-day MA $231.61; 200-day MA $207.07; 52-week range $121.06 to $243.50 | Investing.com MOH technical analysis and market range data | July 12, 2026 |
| CEO background | Joseph M. Zubretsky is President and Chief Executive Officer, with more than 35 years of insurance and financial services experience; CEO tenure since 2017 | Molina Healthcare management biography | July 12, 2026 |
This MOH AI stock analysis is for informational and educational use only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of returns. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available public data as of the stated cutoff date and can be wrong if medical-cost trends, policy rules, company guidance, valuation multiples, or market conditions change.
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