Centene Corporation research snapshot
CNC AI stock analysis reads Centene as a scaled government-sponsored managed care company whose 2026 recovery now has two consecutive quarters of better medical-cost control and a raised full-year outlook. At the August 2, 2026 data cutoff, CNC traded near $62.22 with a verified market capitalization of about $30.74 billion. Q2 2026 delivered $2.51 in adjusted EPS, a 89.6% health benefits ratio, and a guidance raise to adjusted EPS greater than $4.80, but total at-risk membership still fell to 25.9 million and about $0.50 of the raise comes from non-recurring Medicare and Commercial items. The CNC AI stock forecast stays scenario-based because Medicaid rates, Marketplace membership, ACA policy, and claims costs can move earnings quickly. This page is an information tool, not investment advice.
Current price
$62.22
Market cap
$30.74 billion
AI score
66 / 100
Rating
Improving execution with raised 2026 guidance, offset by membership attrition and policy sensitivity
Trend status
Long-term uptrend above rising 100-day and 200-day averages, with a short-term pullback below the 20-day and 50-day lines
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Centene runs Medicaid, Medicare, Commercial Marketplace, and related health programs for government-sponsored and under-insured populations at very large scale, serving 25.9 million at-risk members at June 30, 2026. | Medium-high |
| Moat | The moat comes from state contracts, local health-plan networks, claims infrastructure, regulatory know-how, and scale, but it is weaker than a consumer brand because contracts can be rebid and margins are regulated. | Medium |
| Management | CEO Sarah London has led since March 2022 and is restoring profitability through cost discipline, including companywide buyouts, after raising 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to greater than $4.80. | Medium |
| Financial trend | Q2 2026 premium and service revenue rose 4% to $44.4 billion, HBR fell to 89.6%, GAAP EPS was $2.19, and adjusted EPS was $2.51. H1 adjusted EPS reached $5.88 and 2026 guidance was raised. | High |
| Valuation | Using $62.22, the raised 2026 adjusted EPS floor of greater than $4.80, book value per share near $45.66, and FCF per share near $18.12, CNC screens near 12.96x adjusted EPS, 1.36x book, and 3.43x free cash flow. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | The stock is in a longer uptrend above its 100-day and 200-day moving averages, but in a short-term pullback below the 20-day and 50-day lines after a move to a 52-week high near $69.36. | Medium |
| Risk level | Main risks are medical cost inflation, Medicaid rate lag, ACA subsidy changes, Marketplace membership decline, state contract losses, the non-recurring part of 2026 guidance, and regulatory scrutiny. | High |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because official filings and third-party data align. Forecast confidence is lower because policy and claims-cost variables are unstable. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | CNC is a recovery and execution case rather than a simple compounder. The upside depends on medical-cost control, membership stability, and repeated underwriting discipline. | Medium-low |
CNC AI stock forecast
The CNC AI stock forecast uses the $62.22 price reference, the raised 2026 adjusted EPS floor of greater than $4.80, and a three-year scenario model. The audited model produced a bearish area near $42, a base area near $75, and a bullish area near $110 before dividends, using adjusted EPS growth of 3%, 9%, and 15% and exit multiples of 8x, 12x, and 15x. The wide spread reflects a business that can recover quickly when cost trends normalize, but can reset lower if rate adequacy, membership, or policy assumptions are wrong.
$100 to $115
More likely if Medicaid and Commercial HBR improvement continues, Medicare PDP execution stays firm, 2026 guidance is raised again, Marketplace membership stabilizes, and investors pay a mid-teens multiple on restored earnings power.
$70 to $80
More likely if adjusted EPS compounds at a high single-digit rate, total revenue lands near the $193.5 to $197.5 billion guidance, and the market values CNC near a 12x earnings multiple because policy risk remains visible.
$38 to $48
More likely if Marketplace morbidity worsens, Medicaid rates lag medical trend, ACA subsidy changes reduce membership, membership keeps shrinking, or the non-recurring portion of 2026 guidance is not repeated.
CNC AI technical analysis
CNC AI technical analysis is mixed but broadly constructive as of the August 2, 2026 cutoff. The stock closed near $62.22 on July 31, 2026, below its 20-day moving average near $65.38 and 50-day moving average near $63.62, but above its 100-day moving average near $53.04 and 200-day moving average near $46.60. Barchart listed 14-day RSI near 44.24 and a 14-day ADX near 29 with negative directional index above positive, pointing to a short-term pullback inside a longer uptrend. The 52-week range is $25.08 to $69.36.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $62.22 | StockAnalysis close at July 31, 2026, used for market-cap and valuation checks. |
| Near resistance | $63.5 to $65.5 | This band brackets the 50-day moving average near $63.62 and the 20-day moving average near $65.38, which price would need to reclaim first. |
| Next resistance | $69 to $70 | The 52-week high near $69.36 is the breakout area bulls need to clear for the recovery trend to accelerate. |
| Near support | $60 to $61 | The July 31 session low near $60.49 and the round $60 level form the first support zone below the current price. |
| Deeper support | $53 area | The 100-day moving average near $53.04 is the next meaningful support and a test of whether the longer uptrend is intact. |
| 200-day moving average | $46.60 | The 200-day average is well below price and still rising, marking the structural uptrend from the 2025 lows. |
| Moving averages | 20-day $65.38, 50-day $63.62, 100-day $53.04, 200-day $46.60 | The stack is still bullish longer term, but price below the 20-day and 50-day lines signals short-term softness after the run. |
| Momentum | RSI near 44.24, ADX near 29 | RSI is neutral rather than oversold, and negative directional index above positive confirms the current pullback has momentum. |
| Volume | 20-day average near 4.74 to 4.88 million shares | Volume is useful for judging whether a reclaim of the 50-day line and a breakout toward $69 are backed by real participation. |
| Volatility | 14-day historic volatility near 38% | Barchart reported elevated historic volatility and a 14-day ATR near $2.76, so position sizing should account for larger swings near earnings and policy headlines. |
| Invalidation | Close below $60, then below $53 | A close below the $60 zone would weaken the short-term setup. A move below the 100-day area near $53 would argue the recovery trend is losing sponsorship. |
CNC AI trading strategy
The CNC AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It connects price behavior with Medicaid, Medicare, and Commercial HBR, Marketplace membership, ACA subsidy policy, state rate updates, cash flow, debt reduction, guidance language, and the non-recurring items embedded in 2026 guidance.
Watch for CNC to reclaim the 50-day moving average near $63.62 and the 20-day moving average near $65.38 on rising volume, then clear the $69.36 52-week high while Q3 results confirm stable HBR and guidance at or above the raised level.
A failed reclaim followed by a close below $60 should reduce trend confidence, especially if guidance language points to medical-cost pressure or further Marketplace membership loss.
If CNC pulls back toward the $60 to $61 zone or the 100-day area near $53 without a new policy or claims-cost shock, compare the lower price with contract scale, cash flow, book value, net cash, and the raised adjusted EPS floor.
Do not treat a lower price as attractive if the pullback is tied to rate inadequacy, ACA subsidy changes, state contract losses, or another withdrawal of guidance.
Track Medicaid, Medicare, and Commercial HBR, Marketplace membership, ACA subsidy policy, total revenue guidance, adjusted EPS guidance, operating cash flow, total debt, buyback activity, and the repeatability of non-recurring items.
Position sizing should reflect that CNC is a regulated healthcare payer with earnings leverage to assumptions, not a predictable software-style compounder.
Investment research summary
Customers and governments pay Centene to administer health coverage for Medicaid, Medicare, Marketplace, and other populations that need access, provider networks, claims processing, compliance, and cost management, with 25.9 million at-risk members at June 30, 2026.
The moat is strongest in state relationships, local health-plan operations, provider networks, regulated claims systems, data infrastructure, and scale. It is narrower than it looks if rates lag costs or if a state rebids contracts away from Centene.
The thesis fails if medical costs outrun rates, if Marketplace membership keeps shrinking, if ACA subsidy rules reduce enrollment, if Medicaid redeterminations pressure volume, if the non-recurring earnings in 2026 are not repeated, or if regulators and states demand lower margins.
Sarah London has led Centene since 2022 and is restoring profitability through cost cuts, including companywide buyouts, and underwriting discipline. The key test is whether the 2026 improvement becomes durable across Medicaid, Marketplace, and Medicare.
Managed care benefits from government outsourcing, aging populations, and the need for cost control, but the industry is always tied to public budgets, benefit design, state procurement, medical inflation, and political scrutiny.
At $62.22, the stock screens near 12.96x the raised 2026 adjusted EPS floor, 1.36x book value, 3.43x free cash flow, and 0.17x sales. Margin of safety depends less on headline revenue and more on whether adjusted EPS above $4.80 becomes a durable floor.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| CNC price | $62.22 close on July 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com CNC quote | August 1, 2026 |
| Market capitalization and shares | $30.74 billion, verified as $62.22 x 494.00 million shares, down 2.48% year over year | financial_rigor.py market cap verification and StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 premium and service revenue | $44,375 million, up 4% year over year | Centene Q2 2026 results release | July 28, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 health benefits ratio | 89.6%, down from 93.0% in Q2 2025 | Centene Q2 2026 results release | July 28, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 GAAP and adjusted EPS | GAAP diluted EPS $2.19, adjusted diluted EPS $2.51 | Centene Q2 2026 results release | July 28, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 segment HBR | Medicaid 93.9%, Commercial 79.2%, Medicare 89.5% | Centene Q2 2026 results release | July 28, 2026 |
| 2026 guidance raise | Adjusted diluted EPS greater than $4.80, total revenues $193.5 to $197.5 billion, premium and service revenues $173.0 to $177.0 billion | Centene Q2 2026 results release | July 28, 2026 |
| Non-recurring items in 2026 guidance | Approximately $0.50 per share of non-recurring items in Medicare and Commercial segments | Centene Q2 2026 results release | July 28, 2026 |
| H1 2026 results | Adjusted diluted EPS $5.88, GAAP diluted EPS $5.30, operating cash flow $7,956 million | Centene Q2 2026 results release | July 28, 2026 |
| Membership at June 30, 2026 | 25,885,400 total at-risk members, down from 28,004,900 a year earlier; Marketplace down to 3,494,700 from 5,862,800 | Centene Q2 2026 results release membership table | July 28, 2026 |
| Balance sheet at June 30, 2026 | Cash, investments and restricted deposits $44.8 billion, $715 million cash for general corporate use, medical claims liabilities $20.3 billion, total debt $16.1 billion | Centene Q2 2026 results release balance sheet | July 28, 2026 |
| Cash and debt (StockAnalysis) | $27.06 billion cash and short-term investments, $16.11 billion total debt, net cash $10.95 billion | StockAnalysis.com CNC balance sheet | August 1, 2026 |
| Free cash flow | TTM free cash flow $8.95 billion, $18.12 per share | StockAnalysis.com CNC statistics | August 1, 2026 |
| Valuation check | Forward PE 13.50, PB 1.36, P/FCF 3.43, PS 0.17, PEG 0.35 | financial_rigor.py valuation verification and StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 and FY2024 revenue and income | FY2025 total revenue $194.777 billion with a GAAP net loss of $6.674 billion; FY2024 total revenue $163.071 billion with net income of $3.305 billion | StockAnalysis.com CNC income statement | August 1, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy with an average price target of $70.67 across 21 analysts, low $56 and high $85, median $69.50 | StockAnalysis.com CNC forecast | July 29, 2026 |
| Recent analyst target updates | Cantor Fitzgerald $75 Buy, Truist $78 to $80 Buy, Bank of America $74 Buy, UBS $61 to $70 Hold, Morgan Stanley $57 to $66 Hold, RBC Capital $71 Hold, Baird $46 to $66 Hold | StockAnalysis.com CNC analyst ratings | July 29, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | RSI near 44.24, 20-day MA $65.38, 50-day MA $63.62, 100-day MA $53.04, 200-day MA $46.60, 14-day ADX near 29 | Barchart CNC technical analysis | July 31, 2026 |
| Short interest | 13.44 million shares short, 2.72% of shares outstanding, 2.63 days to cover | StockAnalysis.com CNC statistics | August 1, 2026 |
This CNC AI stock analysis is for informational and educational use only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of returns. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available public data as of the stated cutoff date and can be wrong if medical-cost trends, policy rules, membership, company guidance, valuation multiples, or market conditions change.
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