Humana Inc. research snapshot
HUM AI stock analysis reads Humana as a scaled Medicare Advantage and healthcare services company that beat Q2 2026 estimates on July 29, 2026, then fell more than 6% because it held, rather than raised, its adjusted profit outlook. At the August 2, 2026 data cutoff, HUM closed near $363.86 on July 31, 2026 at a market capitalization near $43.69 billion. Q2 2026 adjusted EPS of $7.61 beat the $7.22 consensus, revenue of $40.87 billion beat the $40.61 billion consensus, the insurance benefit ratio of 91.2% matched guidance, and management affirmed full year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of at least $9.00 while revising GAAP EPS guidance down to at least $6.52 on the Star Ratings headwind. The company also confirmed roughly 25% individual Medicare Advantage membership growth, an Illinois Medicaid award, a Gentiva minority interest divestiture valued near $900 million, and plan exits affecting about 600,000 members in its 2027 bids. The HUM AI stock forecast remains a scenario framework because medical cost trends, Stars recovery, CMS policy, and execution still determine the earnings path.
Current price
$363.86
Market cap
$43.69 billion
AI score
67 / 100
Rating
Medicare Advantage scale leader that beat Q2 estimates and held adjusted guidance, trading at a premium multiple after a post-earnings pullback
Trend status
Pulled back below the 50-day moving average after Q2 earnings while staying well above the 200-day moving average
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Humana runs a Medicare-focused insurance platform plus CenterWell pharmacy, primary care, and home health, with individual Medicare Advantage as the main economic engine and roughly 25% individual MA membership growth in 2026. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from Medicare Advantage scale, provider networks, Stars processes, member data, distribution, pharmacy, and CenterWell care delivery. It is not immune to CMS policy, medical cost trend, utilization, or bid-cycle mistakes. | Medium-high |
| Management | President and CEO Jim Rechtin and CFO Celeste Mellet delivered a Q2 2026 beat, held adjusted EPS guidance at at least $9.00, kept cost trend within the 7% to 8% assumption, and are steering 2027 bids toward a sustainable MA pretax margin of at least 3% by 2028. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue was $129.66 billion with net income of $1.188 billion, while Q2 2026 revenue of $40.87 billion grew from $32.39 billion, Q2 2026 GAAP EPS was $5.73, adjusted EPS was $7.61, and the insurance benefit ratio was 91.2% in line with guidance. | High |
| Valuation | At $363.86, verified math shows about 34.4x TTM EPS, 29.5x forward EPS, 0.30x sales, 2.27x book value, and 22.4x free cash flow per share, a premium that already discounts a meaningful 2027 earnings recovery. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | HUM closed at $363.86 on July 31, 2026, below the 50-day moving average near $367.65 but far above the 200-day moving average near $265.26, after a post-earnings decline from a 52-week high of $428.88. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is elevated for a managed-care name because Star Ratings, Medicare Advantage bids, medical utilization, pharmacy drug trend, CMS rules, and provider economics can reset earnings quickly, and the stock fell more than 6% after Q2 despite the beat. | High |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because filings, the Q2 release, the call transcript, and market data are rich and cross-consistent. Return confidence is lower because the thesis depends on Stars recovery, cost trend control, and 2027 bid execution. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | HUM is a recovery execution story at a premium multiple, not a low-uncertainty value setup, and the current price already embeds a large portion of the expected earnings recovery. | Medium |
HUM AI stock forecast
The HUM AI stock forecast uses scenario math, not a promised price target. Using the July 31, 2026 close of $363.86, the affirmed full year 2026 adjusted EPS floor of at least $9.00, consensus 2027 EPS near $16.33, and a three-year model, the framework produces a bearish area near $154, a base area near $311, and a bullish area near $531 before dividends. The wide range reflects how much future value depends on whether Stars, medical cost, and MA margins recover as planned.
$490 to $560 before dividends
More likely if Medicare Advantage margins recover toward the 2028 target of at least 3%, Stars returns to top quartile for bonus year 2028, cost trend stays within the 7% to 8% assumption, 2027 bid pricing holds, and investors pay a high-teens to low-20s multiple on normalized EPS.
$290 to $340 before dividends
More likely if FY2026 adjusted EPS lands near the at least $9.00 guide, earnings compound toward consensus 2027 EPS near $16.33, the benefit ratio stabilizes, and the market applies a mid-teens to high-teens multiple to a still uncertain recovery path.
$140 to $170 before dividends
More likely if medical cost trend stays elevated, pharmacy costs rise further, Stars recovery takes longer than expected, CMS funding tightens, 2027 plan exits shrink the profitable book, or investors value HUM on depressed near-term earnings.
HUM AI technical analysis
HUM AI technical analysis is mixed as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff. StockAnalysis showed a July 31 close of $363.86, a 50-day moving average near $367.65, a 200-day moving average near $265.26, RSI near 40.96, 20-day average volume near 1.48 million shares, and a 52-week range of $163.11 to $428.88 after the stock set a new high near $428.88 in July 2026.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $363.86 | StockAnalysis listed the July 31, 2026 close at $363.86, with after-hours trading near $363.60. |
| Near support | $360 to $363 | This area brackets the July 31 session low near $362.86 and is the first support to defend after the post-earnings decline. |
| Round-number support | $340 to $350 | This zone sits below the current reaction area and would be the next meaningful test if the stock extends the pullback. |
| Major trend support | $265 to $270 | The 200-day moving average near $265.26 is the large-trend line and is well below the current price after a strong 12-month advance. |
| Near resistance | $367 to $372 | The 50-day moving average near $367.65 and the July 31 session high near $372.15 are the first upside levels a recovery needs to reclaim. |
| Upper resistance | $394 to $400 | This zone marks the early July trading area and is the next supply band above the 50-day moving average. |
| 52-week high | $428.88 | StockAnalysis reported a 52-week range high of $428.88, set in July 2026 before the post-earnings decline. |
| Momentum | RSI near 40.96 | RSI is soft but not deeply oversold, consistent with a pullback within a larger uptrend rather than a confirmed reversal. |
| Volume | 20-day average near 1.48 million shares | Volume confirmation matters around earnings and CMS news because managed care stocks can gap on rate and utilization updates. |
| Volatility | Watch Stars, CMS rates, and Q3 2026 earnings | The Stars data release in October, CMS rate and Part D policy news, and the next earnings update are likely volatility drivers. |
| Invalidation | Close below $360, then $265 | A decisive break below the $360 to $363 support would weaken the short-term setup. A sustained break below the 200-day moving average would challenge the larger trend. |
HUM AI trading strategy
The HUM AI trading strategy below is a planning framework for risk control, not personal investment advice. It links chart levels with medical cost trend, benefit ratio, Stars progress, membership mix, Medicare Advantage bid pricing, CenterWell performance, cash flow, and policy risk because the stock rebound has run ahead of current-year adjusted EPS.
Wait for HUM to hold the $360 to $363 support area and reclaim the $367 to $372 zone, then check whether volume is near or above the 1.48 million share average and whether Q3 commentary supports margin recovery.
Treat a failed reclaim back below the 50-day moving average as a warning. A close below $360 reduces trend confidence, and a close below the 200-day moving average invalidates the larger trend setup.
If HUM pulls back toward $340 to $350 or the 200-day moving average near $265, compare price action with FY2026 adjusted EPS guidance of at least $9.00, the 92.75% insurance benefit ratio guide, MA membership growth quality, and CenterWell patient growth.
Do not average down without a defined exit. A lower guidance reset, worse Stars news, or higher utilization would matter more than the apparent discount to the recent 52-week high.
Track Stars rating releases and the October data, CMS rate and Part D policy, medical and pharmacy cost trend, the benefit ratio, individual MA membership quality, 2027 bid commentary, CenterWell performance, cash flow, debt, buybacks, dividends, and the Gentiva divestiture close.
Keep position size tied to evidence. Medicare Advantage scale does not remove reimbursement, utilization, regulation, or execution risk, and the current multiple already prices a large recovery.
Investment research summary
Humana sells managed healthcare access, risk pooling, care coordination, pharmacy services, primary care, and home health support, primarily for Medicare members. Customers and government programs pay Humana to organize benefits and manage healthcare cost and quality.
The moat comes from Medicare Advantage scale, provider relationships, Stars operating processes, member data, distribution, pharmacy capabilities, and CenterWell care delivery. The moat narrows when CMS changes rules, Stars results fall, or medical costs rise faster than pricing.
The thesis fails if membership growth is underpriced, utilization stays elevated, pharmacy trend rises further, Stars recovery takes longer, CMS reimbursement tightens, 2027 plan exits shrink the profitable book, CenterWell does not improve total cost of care, or the market refuses to pay a premium multiple for uncertain recovery earnings.
Jim Rechtin became President and CEO in July 2024, with Celeste Mellet as CFO. The key management test is whether the team can restore Medicare Advantage margin through 2027 bids, Stars, medical cost control, and CenterWell execution while managing a large membership base.
Humana sits in the aging U.S. population and value-based care trend, but the industry is heavily regulated. Long-term demand is favorable, while annual bid cycles, government payment formulas, drug policy, and utilization shocks can dominate near-term earnings.
At $363.86, verified math shows roughly 34.4x TTM EPS and 29.5x forward EPS. Margin of safety depends on earnings recovering materially from the at least $9.00 2026 adjusted EPS floor toward consensus 2027 EPS near $16.33, and on Humana proving the 2025 to 2026 reset was cyclical rather than structural.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| HUM price | $363.86 | StockAnalysis quote | August 2, 2026 |
| Market cap and shares | $43.69 billion market cap, 120.08 million shares | StockAnalysis statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 revenue and EPS | $40.87 billion revenue, $5.73 GAAP diluted EPS, $7.61 adjusted diluted EPS | Humana Q2 2026 earnings release | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 insurance benefit ratio | 91.2%, in line with guidance of slightly above 91 percent | Humana Q2 2026 earnings release | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2026 EPS guidance | Adjusted EPS affirmed at at least $9.00; GAAP EPS revised to at least $6.52 from at least $8.36 | Humana Q2 2026 earnings release | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2026 revenue and benefit ratio guidance | Consolidated revenue at least $160 billion; insurance benefit ratio 92.75% plus or minus 25 basis points | Humana Q2 2026 earnings release | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2026 membership guidance | Individual Medicare Advantage growth of approximately 25 percent over 2025; Group MA growth of about 150,000 | Humana Q2 2026 earnings release | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and net income | $129.664 billion revenue, $1.188 billion net income attributable to Humana | Humana 2025 Form 10-K via StockAnalysis financials | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM revenue, net income, and EPS | About $145.68 billion TTM revenue, about $1.28 billion TTM net income, about $10.59 TTM EPS | StockAnalysis financials | August 2, 2026 |
| Balance sheet | About $6.9 billion cash and equivalents, about $14.6 billion total debt, and about $19.3 billion total equity at June 30, 2026, with debt-to-total capitalization near 42.7 percent | Humana Q2 2026 earnings release and StockAnalysis balance sheet | August 2, 2026 |
| Medicare Advantage membership | About 7.18 million total Medicare Advantage members at June 30, 2026, up from about 5.80 million a year earlier | Humana Q2 2026 earnings release statistical schedules | August 2, 2026 |
| Valuation check | 34.36x trailing PE, 29.54x forward PE, 22.42x price to free cash flow, 2.27x price to book, 0.30x price to sales, 0.97% dividend yield | StockAnalysis statistics and price-times-multiple verification | August 2, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 50-day moving average $367.65, 200-day moving average $265.26, RSI 40.96, 52-week range $163.11 to $428.88 | StockAnalysis technical data | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy consensus from 26 analysts, average price target $407.83, range $249 to $513 | StockAnalysis forecast | August 2, 2026 |
| 2027 bid plan | Plan exits impacting about 600,000 members, targeted toward higher performing plans with more value-based care penetration | Humana Q2 2026 earnings call | August 2, 2026 |
This HUM AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future performance. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of August 2, 2026 and can be wrong if medical costs, CMS policy, Star Ratings, bid pricing, pharmacy trend, market multiples, or company execution change.
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