Monster Beverage Corporation research snapshot
MNST AI stock analysis reads Monster Beverage as a high-quality global energy drink business that keeps growing fast as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff, with the stock closing at $96.38 on July 31, 2026 at a market capitalization near $94.26 billion. Q1 2026 net sales rose 26.9% to $2.353 billion, energy drink case sales rose 28.8% to 274.5 million cases, and net sales to customers outside the United States rose 44.9% to about $1.06 billion, which was roughly 45% of net sales. The company holds about $2.985 billion in cash and short-term investments with no borrowings outstanding, and on July 8, 2026 the board declared a 2-for-1 stock split with split-adjusted trading expected to begin August 11, 2026. The setup is not a simple buy signal because the stock trades near 46.6x TTM EPS and 45.5x TTM free cash flow, well above the analyst average target of $95.70, while India moved to restrict the term "energy drink" and the UK announced an energy drink ban for children. The AI view is constructive on business quality but cautious on margin of safety: the base case needs continued international growth, healthy category demand, regulatory restraint, and technical support above the key moving-average zone.
Current price
$96.38
Market cap
$94.26 billion
AI score
76 / 100
Rating
High-quality energy drink compounder, valuation and regulation sensitive
Trend status
Bullish trend above the 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Monster sells repeat-purchase energy drinks through premium Monster products, acquired strategic brands, affordable Predator and Fury brands, and a small alcohol portfolio. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from brand identity, shelf space, marketing, athlete and music sponsorship, flavor innovation, scale, and the Coca-Cola distribution relationship. | High |
| Management | Hilton Schlosberg became sole CEO in June 2025 while Rodney Sacks remained chairman, so succession execution, capital allocation, and the pace of the new $500 million buyback are now central checks. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 net sales rose 10.7% to $8.294 billion and net income rose 26.3% to $1.905 billion, while Q1 2026 net sales rose 26.9% to $2.353 billion with case sales up 28.8%. | High |
| Valuation | At $96.38, MNST trades near 46.6x TTM EPS, 45.5x TTM free cash flow, 10.8x book value, and about 10.7x TTM sales, above the $95.70 average analyst target. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | Price closed above its 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages with 14-day RSI near 53 and 14-day ADX near 28, a constructive but not stretched setup. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is moderate: the balance sheet is strong, but valuation, energy drink competition, India and UK regulation, consumer demand, ingredients, aluminum costs, and alcohol brand execution matter. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | The descriptive business and financial analysis has high confidence, while forward-return confidence is lower because most upside depends on growth and multiple durability. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | MNST looks like a strong business at a demanding price, so margin-of-safety certainty is only medium. | Medium |
MNST AI stock forecast
The MNST AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges rather than a precise price prediction. The financial-rigor model used a $96.38 cutoff close, TTM EPS near $2.07, and three-year growth and terminal PE assumptions. It produced a bullish value near $138.00, a base value near $90.90, and a bearish value near $58.20 before any buyback benefit. The analyst average target of $95.70 sits slightly below the July 31, 2026 close.
$132 to $142
More likely if Q1 2026 international momentum continues, Monster Energy and Strategic Brands keep gaining cases, gross margin stays near the mid-50% range, the 2-for-1 split and buybacks reduce per-share friction, regulation stays contained, and investors keep assigning a premium growth multiple.
$86 to $95
More likely if EPS grows in the low double digits, the stock keeps a mid-30s earnings multiple, international growth offsets slower U.S. convenience-store growth, and the chart holds above the 200-day moving-average area.
$54 to $62
More likely if energy drink growth slows, Celsius, Red Bull, private-label, or retailer pressure hurts share, India or other markets restrict energy drink labeling and sales, input costs squeeze margins, alcohol brands remain weak, or the market compresses MNST toward a lower staples-growth multiple.
MNST AI technical analysis
MNST AI technical analysis is bullish but not stretched as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff. The stock closed at $96.38 on July 31, 2026, above its 20-day moving average near $96.52, its 50-day near $93.48, its 100-day near $85.28, and its 200-day near $80.59. StockAnalysis reported 14-day RSI near 53.09 and Barchart reported a similar relative strength reading near 53, with 14-day ADX near 28 confirming an uptrend. The 52-week high of $100.34 remains the key overhead reference, and the pending 2-for-1 split means price levels will be adjusted downward by half once split-adjusted trading begins on August 11, 2026.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $96.38 | StockAnalysis reported this as the July 31, 2026 closing price, before the split-adjusted basis begins on August 11, 2026. |
| Near support | $96.52 to $93.48 | StockAnalysis and Barchart placed the 20-day moving average near $96.52 and the 50-day near $93.48. A hold near this zone supports a short-term consolidation read. |
| Deeper support | $85.28 | Barchart placed the 100-day moving average near $85.28, making it an important intermediate trend reference. |
| Medium-term trend line | $80.59 | StockAnalysis and Barchart both reported the 200-day moving average near $80.59, well below price and confirming the medium-term uptrend. |
| Near resistance | $100.34 | The 52-week high sits near $100.34, and a clean break through it would confirm renewed momentum. The stock is up about 57.9% over 52 weeks. |
| 20-day moving average | $96.52 | Barchart reported the 20-day moving average near $96.52 on July 31, 2026, just above the closing price. |
| 50-day moving average | $93.48 | StockAnalysis and Barchart both reported the 50-day moving average near $93.48, below price and confirming short-term strength. |
| 200-day moving average | $80.59 | A price above this level supports the positive medium-term trend view. |
| Momentum | RSI near 53, ADX near 28 | StockAnalysis reported 14-day RSI near 53.09 and Barchart near 53, with 14-day ADX near 28 confirming a moderate uptrend that is not overbought. |
| Volume | About 5.6 million average shares | Barchart listed 20-day average volume near 5.6 million shares and StockAnalysis near 5.61 million, useful for checking breakout quality. |
| Volatility | ATR about $2.10 | Barchart reported a 14-day average true range near $2.10 and 14-day historic volatility near 25.9%, useful for sizing and stop distance. |
| Invalidation | Close below $93.48 | A decisive close below the 50-day moving average near $93.48 would weaken the short-term setup; a close below the 200-day near $80.59 would shift focus to lower support zones. |
MNST AI trading strategy
The MNST AI trading strategy below is a rules-based framework for research and risk control, not personalized advice. It pairs premium business quality with strict valuation, trend, earnings, and regulation checks, and it assumes prices are confirmed on a live chart after the split adjusts levels.
Watch for MNST to reclaim and hold the $96.50 to $100 area with volume above recent averages. A stronger setup would pair price confirmation with continued international case growth, stable gross margin, and no adverse regulation headlines.
Use a predefined invalidation level. A close back below the 50-day area near $93.48 weakens the trend-following case.
If MNST pulls back toward the $93.48 to $85.28 support zone without a fundamental downgrade, compare valuation, TTM FCF yield, net cash, next-quarter sales momentum, and regulatory developments before treating the drop as quality growth at a better price.
Do not average down only because the brand is strong. A premium multiple can compress even when the underlying business remains profitable, and split-related pricing can add noise.
Track net sales growth, international mix, case volume, gross margin, operating margin, Coca-Cola distribution execution, U.S. convenience-store demand, Celsius and Red Bull competition, India and UK regulatory actions, alcohol brand losses, and buyback activity.
Update scenario ranges after the Q2 2026 report on August 6, 2026 or after guidance changes. The base case requires sustained growth, not only historical brand strength.
Investment research summary
Monster sells functional energy, taste, identity, convenience, and lifestyle association in a small-ticket product that consumers can buy repeatedly across convenience, grocery, mass, club, military, foodservice, e-commerce, and international channels.
The moat is strongest in brand memory, shelf position, sponsorship culture, flavor cadence, scale, distribution through Coca-Cola system relationships, and global market reach. It is not absolute because energy drinks have low physical switching costs and aggressive competitors.
The thesis fails if the energy drink category matures faster than expected, competitors win younger consumers, India and other regulators restrict energy drink labeling and sales, retailers demand more allowances, alcohol brands consume attention, or the valuation multiple falls while earnings still grow.
Hilton Schlosberg now leads as sole CEO, while Rodney Sacks remains chairman. The management scorecard is succession stability, the new $500 million buyback, international execution, innovation without brand dilution, and sober handling of the alcohol portfolio.
Energy drinks remain tied to convenience, work, gaming, fitness, travel, and lifestyle consumption. The long-term trend is favorable, but the category faces health scrutiny, India and UK regulatory action, intense shelf competition, and possible private-label or retailer margin pressure.
At about 46.6x TTM EPS and above the $95.70 average analyst target, MNST is priced for quality and growth rather than distress. Margin of safety improves if earnings growth remains double digit, buybacks continue, and price holds above key trend support. It weakens quickly if growth normalizes or regulation tightens.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| MNST closing price | $96.38 at the July 31, 2026 close | StockAnalysis MNST quote page | July 31, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $94.26 billion, verified as $96.38 x 978.01 million shares with 0.00% deviation | financial_rigor.py market-cap verification | August 2, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 978.01 million shares outstanding | StockAnalysis MNST statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 net sales | $2.353 billion, up 26.9% year over year | SEC Form 10-Q for quarter ended March 31, 2026 | August 2, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 gross margin | 55.0% of net sales, down from 56.5% a year earlier | SEC Form 10-Q for quarter ended March 31, 2026 | August 2, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 net income | $569.5 million, up 28.6% year over year, diluted EPS $0.58 | SEC Form 10-Q for quarter ended March 31, 2026 | August 2, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 energy drink case sales | 274.5 million cases in 192-ounce equivalents, up 28.8% | SEC Form 10-Q for quarter ended March 31, 2026 | August 2, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 international sales | $1.06 billion, up 44.9% year over year, about 45% of net sales | SEC Form 10-Q for quarter ended March 31, 2026 | August 2, 2026 |
| Cash and short-term investments | $2.985 billion at March 31, 2026, with no credit facility borrowings outstanding | SEC Form 10-Q for quarter ended March 31, 2026 | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and net income | FY2025 revenue $8.294 billion, up 10.7%; net income $1.905 billion, up 26.3% | StockAnalysis and macrotrends cross-check, 0.00% deviation | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM financials | TTM revenue $8.793 billion, TTM net income $2.032 billion, TTM EPS $2.07, TTM FCF per share $2.12 | StockAnalysis MNST financials and statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Valuation check | 46.56x TTM PE, 45.46x TTM P/FCF, 10.80x book value, 10.72x TTM sales, 2.20% FCF yield | financial_rigor.py valuation verification | August 2, 2026 |
| 2-for-1 stock split | Declared July 8, 2026; record date July 24, 2026; distribution after the August 10, 2026 close; split-adjusted trading expected to begin August 11, 2026 | Monster Beverage press release via GlobeNewswire | August 2, 2026 |
| Share repurchase | Board authorized a new $500.0 million repurchase program on May 15, 2026; Q1 2026 buybacks totaled about $100 million at an average price of $73.86 | Monster Beverage press release and SEC Form 10-Q | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy with an average target of $95.70 across 26 analysts, low $70, median $97, high $113 | StockAnalysis MNST forecast | July 30, 2026 |
| Analyst rating mix, July 2026 | 11 Strong Buy, 3 Buy, 12 Hold, 0 Sell, 1 Strong Sell out of 27 analysts | StockAnalysis forecast recommendation trends | July 30, 2026 |
| Recent analyst target updates | J.P. Morgan $83 to $99 Hold, Evercore ISI $95 Buy, Goldman Sachs $106 Buy, BMO Capital $73 to $95 Hold, Deutsche Bank downgrade to Hold with $94 to $98 | StockAnalysis forecast latest forecasts | July 30, 2026 |
| FY2026 and FY2027 consensus estimates | FY2026 revenue $9.56 billion with EPS $2.29, FY2027 revenue $10.40 billion with EPS $2.60 | StockAnalysis forecast financial forecast | July 30, 2026 |
| Short interest | 18.66 million shares short, 1.91% of shares outstanding, 3.15 days to cover | StockAnalysis MNST statistics short selling | August 2, 2026 |
| Regulatory risk signals | India ordered makers of high-caffeine "energy drinks" to stop using that description; UK announced an energy drink ban for children | Reuters and TheFly coverage reported on StockAnalysis | August 2, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 20-day SMA near $96.52, 50-day SMA near $93.48, 100-day SMA near $85.28, 200-day SMA near $80.59, 14-day RSI near 53, 14-day ADX near 28 | Barchart and StockAnalysis technical snapshots | July 31, 2026 |
| 52-week price change | +57.90% over 52 weeks, with beta of 0.53 | StockAnalysis MNST statistics | August 2, 2026 |
This MNST AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future performance. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data, technical snapshots, and stated assumptions as of the data cutoff. They can be wrong and should be rechecked before use.
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