Monster Beverage Corporation research snapshot
MNST AI stock analysis currently reads Monster Beverage as a high-quality global energy drink business with strong brand equity, broad Coca-Cola system distribution, high margins, net cash, and strong Q1 2026 growth. The setup is not a simple buy signal because the stock already discounts a premium growth path at roughly 46.8x TTM EPS and 46.2x TTM free cash flow. The AI view is constructive on business quality but cautious on margin of safety: the base case needs continued international growth, healthy category demand, and technical support above the key moving-average zone.
Current price
$96.92
Market cap
$94.79 billion
AI score
74 / 100
Rating
High-quality energy drink compounder, valuation sensitive
Trend status
Positive long-term trend, near-term momentum mixed
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 8, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Monster sells repeat-purchase energy drinks through premium Monster products, acquired strategic brands, affordable Predator and Fury brands, and a small alcohol portfolio. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from brand identity, shelf space, marketing, athlete and music sponsorship, flavor innovation, scale, and the Coca-Cola distribution relationship. | High |
| Management | Hilton Schlosberg became sole CEO in June 2025 while Rodney Sacks remained chairman, so succession execution and capital allocation are now central checks. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 net sales rose 10.7% to $8.294 billion and net income rose 26.3% to $1.905 billion, while Q1 2026 net sales rose 26.9% to $2.353 billion. | High |
| Valuation | At $96.92, MNST trades near 46.8x TTM EPS, 46.2x TTM free cash flow, 11.0x book value, and about 10.8x TTM sales. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | Price is above most long-term moving-average references, but Investing.com showed the stock slightly below its 50-day average with neutral RSI. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is moderate: the balance sheet is strong, but valuation, energy drink competition, consumer demand, regulation, ingredients, aluminum costs, and alcohol brand execution matter. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | The descriptive business and financial analysis has high confidence, while forward-return confidence is lower because most upside depends on growth and multiple durability. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | MNST looks like a strong business at a demanding price, so margin-of-safety certainty is only medium. | Medium |
MNST AI stock forecast
The MNST AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges rather than a precise price prediction. The financial-rigor model used a $96.92 cutoff close, TTM EPS near $2.07, and three-year growth and terminal PE assumptions. It produced a bullish value near $130.90, a base value near $91.30, and a bearish value near $51.80 before any buyback benefit.
$125 to $132
More likely if Q1 2026 international momentum continues, Monster Energy and Strategic Brands keep gaining cases, gross margin stays near the mid-50% range, buybacks reduce share count, and investors keep assigning a premium growth multiple.
$88 to $95
More likely if EPS grows in the high single digits, the stock keeps a mid-30s earnings multiple, international growth offsets slower U.S. convenience-store growth, and the chart holds above the 200-day moving-average area.
$50 to $56
More likely if energy drink growth slows, Celsius, Red Bull, private-label, or retailer pressure hurts share, input costs squeeze margins, alcohol brands remain weak, or the market compresses MNST toward a lower staples-growth multiple.
MNST AI technical analysis
MNST AI technical analysis is constructive but not risk-free as of the July 8, 2026 data cutoff. StockAnalysis reported a July 7 close of $96.92. Investing.com reported 14-day RSI near 48.4, a 50-day moving average near $97.20, and a 200-day moving average near $92.47. Barchart showed broader moving-average support below price, including 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day references, but source variance is meaningful and should be rechecked with live chart data.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $96.92 | StockAnalysis reported this July 7, 2026 closing price. |
| Near support | $96.17 to $97.20 | Investing.com listed a Fibonacci pivot near $96.17 and a 50-day moving average near $97.20. A hold near this area supports a short-term consolidation read. |
| Deeper support | $92.47 | Investing.com reported the 200-day moving average near this level, making it an important medium-term trend reference. |
| Lower technical shelf | $87.95 to $77.90 | Barchart showed 50-day and 200-day references below price. The wide source spread is a reminder to confirm live chart data before trading. |
| Near resistance | $98.69 to $100 | StockAnalysis showed after-hours trading at $98.69 after the July 7 close. A clean move through the high-$90s would confirm renewed momentum. |
| 50-day moving average | $97.20 | Investing.com reported price slightly below this average, which makes the short-term read more mixed than the longer-term trend. |
| 200-day moving average | $92.47 | A price above this level supports the positive medium-term trend view. |
| Momentum | RSI 48.4 to 68.0 | Investing.com showed neutral RSI while Barchart showed stronger relative strength. Treat momentum as positive but source-dependent. |
| Volume | About 5.7M to 6.2M average shares | Barchart listed recent average volumes around this range across 20-day to 200-day windows. |
| Volatility | ATR about $2.05 | Barchart reported a 14-day average true range near $2.05, useful for sizing and stop distance. |
| Invalidation | Close below $92.47 | A decisive close below the 200-day reference would weaken the medium-term trend setup and shift focus to lower support zones. |
MNST AI trading strategy
The MNST AI trading strategy below is a rules-based framework for research and risk control, not personalized advice. It pairs premium business quality with strict valuation, trend, and earnings checks.
Watch for MNST to reclaim and hold the $97.20 to $100 area with volume above recent averages. A stronger setup would pair price confirmation with continued international case growth and stable gross margin.
Use a predefined invalidation level. A close back below the 200-day area near $92.47 weakens the trend-following case.
If MNST pulls back toward the 200-day moving-average area without a fundamental downgrade, compare valuation, TTM FCF yield, net cash, and next-quarter sales momentum before treating the drop as quality growth at a better price.
Do not average down only because the brand is strong. A premium multiple can compress even when the underlying business remains profitable.
Track net sales growth, international mix, case volume, gross margin, operating margin, Coca-Cola distribution execution, U.S. convenience-store demand, Celsius and Red Bull competition, alcohol brand losses, and buyback activity.
Update scenario ranges after earnings or guidance changes. The base case requires sustained growth, not only historical brand strength.
Investment research summary
Monster sells functional energy, taste, identity, convenience, and lifestyle association in a small-ticket product that consumers can buy repeatedly across convenience, grocery, mass, club, military, foodservice, e-commerce, and international channels.
The moat is strongest in brand memory, shelf position, sponsorship culture, flavor cadence, scale, distribution through Coca-Cola system relationships, and global market reach. It is not absolute because energy drinks have low physical switching costs and aggressive competitors.
The thesis fails if the energy drink category matures faster than expected, competitors win younger consumers, regulators target caffeine or sugar, retailers demand more allowances, alcohol brands consume attention, or the valuation multiple falls while earnings still grow.
Hilton Schlosberg now leads as sole CEO, while Rodney Sacks remains chairman. The management scorecard is succession stability, disciplined buybacks, international execution, innovation without brand dilution, and sober handling of the alcohol portfolio.
Energy drinks remain tied to convenience, work, gaming, fitness, travel, and lifestyle consumption. The long-term trend is favorable, but the category faces health scrutiny, intense shelf competition, and possible private-label or retailer margin pressure.
At about 46.8x TTM EPS, MNST is priced for quality and growth rather than distress. Margin of safety improves if earnings growth remains double digit, buybacks continue, and price holds above key trend support. It weakens quickly if growth normalizes.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| MNST closing price | $96.92 at the July 7, 2026 close | StockAnalysis MNST financials page | July 8, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $94.79 billion, verified as $96.92 x 978.01 million shares with 0.00% variance | financial_rigor.py market-cap verification | July 8, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 978.01 million shares outstanding | SEC Form 10-Q for quarter ended March 31, 2026 | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2025 net sales | $8.294 billion, up 10.7% year over year | Monster Beverage FY2025 results release | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income | $1.905 billion, up 26.3% year over year | Monster Beverage FY2025 results release | July 8, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 net sales | $2.353 billion, up 26.9% year over year | SEC Form 10-Q for quarter ended March 31, 2026 | July 8, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 gross margin | 55.0% of net sales | SEC Form 10-Q for quarter ended March 31, 2026 | July 8, 2026 |
| Cash and short-term investments | $2.985 billion at March 31, 2026, with no credit facility borrowings outstanding | SEC Form 10-Q for quarter ended March 31, 2026 | July 8, 2026 |
| TTM EPS and free cash flow per share | TTM EPS $2.07 and TTM FCF per share $2.10 | StockAnalysis MNST financials page | July 8, 2026 |
| Technical indicators | RSI 48.4, 50-day MA $97.20, 200-day MA $92.47 | Investing.com MNST technical analysis | July 8, 2026 |
This MNST AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future performance. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data, technical snapshots, and stated assumptions as of the data cutoff. They can be wrong and should be rechecked before use.
