Celsius Holdings, Inc. research snapshot
CELH AI stock analysis currently reads Celsius Holdings, Inc. as a scaled functional beverage platform with three energy brands, strong retail distribution, and a large opportunity to improve margins after the Alani Nu and Rockstar integrations. At the August 3, 2026 data cutoff, the latest verified close was $29.21 on July 31, the common-stock market capitalization was about $7.47 billion, and the stock traded near 66x TTM earnings and 25x TTM free cash flow using the latest reported data. Q2 2026 results are scheduled for August 6, 2026 and were not available at this cutoff. The CELH AI stock forecast is therefore tied to Q2 results, portfolio retail velocity, PepsiCo execution, gross-margin recovery, debt and preferred-stock economics, and whether Celsius can turn acquired scale into durable per-share cash flow. This page is for information only and is not investment advice.
Current price
$29.21
Market cap
$7.47 billion calculated market cap, matching the reported figure
AI score
58 / 100
Rating
High-growth beverage portfolio with material integration, short-interest, and dilution risk
Trend status
Short-term rebound near the 50-day average, above a fresh 52-week low but far below the 200-day average
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Celsius owns CELSIUS, Alani Nu, and Rockstar Energy and sells functional energy, hydration, powder, and wellness products through grocery, convenience, fitness, mass retail, specialty, and e-commerce channels. | High |
| Moat | Brand identity, product positioning, shelf access, retail data, marketing reach, and PepsiCo distribution create a useful consumer moat, but beverage preferences change quickly and product formulas are not hard to copy. | Medium |
| Management | CEO John Fieldly and the team executed two major portfolio transactions, moved distribution toward PepsiCo, repurchased shares, and repaid part of the acquisition debt, but the Alani Nu and Rockstar integration, preferred-stock terms, and a high short-interest position remain demanding tests of capital allocation. | Medium |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue rose 85.5% to $2.515 billion, helped by acquisitions. Q1 2026 revenue rose 138% to $782.6 million, while gross margin was 48.3% and net income was $110.1 million. TTM revenue reached about $2.969 billion. | High |
| Valuation | At $29.21, Pineify math gives about 66x TTM EPS and 25x TTM free cash flow, with a forward PE near 19x based on consensus estimates. The multiple can look reasonable only if margin recovery and sustained portfolio growth lift future per-share earnings. | High |
| Technical trend | The July 31 close of $29.21 was just below the 50-day average near $29.70 and far below the 200-day average near $40.91. The stock set a fresh 52-week low of $26.54 on July 24 and remained deeply negative over six and twelve months. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Risk is elevated because Pepsi represented 43.2% of FY2025 revenue, short interest was 15.62% of shares outstanding, the company relies on co-packers, acquired brands need integration, and debt and preferred dividends reduce common-stock economics. | High |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because SEC filings, company releases, and third-party financial data align on the core numbers. Forecast confidence is lower because post-acquisition margins, brand overlap, the capital structure, and Q2 results are still pending. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Celsius may be a good operating platform, but the common stock requires evidence that acquired revenue converts into normalized earnings and cash flow after interest, preferred dividends, integration costs, and dilution. | Medium-low |
CELH AI stock forecast
The CELH AI stock forecast uses $29.21 as the reference price and roughly $0.44 of TTM diluted EPS. Pineify financial_rigor.py produced a three-year illustration of about $25.80 in a 25% EPS-growth and 30x terminal P/E case, $16.10 in a 15% growth and 24x P/E case, and $9.20 in a 5% growth and 18x P/E case. These calculations are sensitivity tests, not company guidance or promised prices. They show that the current price already relies on adjusted-earnings growth and margin recovery beyond the GAAP base case. Analysts polled by S&P Global keep a Buy consensus and a $54.57 average target, but several firms cut targets in July 2026, and the Q2 report on August 6, 2026 is the next catalyst.
$22 to $32
More likely if Q2 2026 results confirm Alani Nu momentum, Celsius brand retail growth reaccelerates, Rockstar stabilizes, gross margin moves back toward the low 50s, and management shows progress on debt and preferred-stock economics.
$13 to $21
More likely if the portfolio grows but Celsius brand growth stays moderate, integration benefits arrive gradually, Q2 results land near lowered analyst estimates, gross margin improves slowly, and the market keeps a lower multiple on a more complex beverage portfolio.
$7 to $12
More likely if the fresh 52-week low extends, retail velocity weakens, Pepsi or other distributors change priorities, aluminum, freight, or promotional costs remain high, short interest pressures the stock, or debt and preferred economics limit common EPS.
CELH AI technical analysis
CELH AI technical analysis at the August 3, 2026 cutoff uses the July 31 historical close and the latest matched market snapshot. Price was $29.21, the 50-day SMA was about $29.70, the 200-day SMA was about $40.91, the 52-week range was $26.54 to $66.74, and six-month performance was approximately negative 43%. RSI near 48.8 was neutral. The stock set a fresh 52-week low of $26.54 on July 24, 2026 and then rebounded, but momentum has not repaired the longer-term trend.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $29.21 | July 31, 2026 close from StockAnalysis. This is the price reference used for market-cap and valuation calculations. |
| Immediate support | $28.43 to $28.54 | The July 28 intraday low was $28.43 and the July 31 low was $28.54. These are reference levels, not guaranteed reversal points. |
| Deeper support | $27.12 to $27.52 | The July 23 close was $27.17, the July 24 close was $27.12, and the July 27 low was $27.52. A break of this zone would weaken the rebound structure. |
| 52-week low | $26.54 | Touched on July 24, 2026. A sustained close below this level would invalidate the rebound framework. |
| 50-day moving average | $29.70 | Latest matched ChartExchange snapshot. The July 31 close of $29.21 sat just below this average, so reclaiming it is the near-term test. |
| 200-day moving average | $40.91 | Latest matched ChartExchange snapshot. The large gap between price and this average shows that the longer-term trend remains damaged. |
| Near resistance | $29.51 to $30.35 | The July 28 high was $29.51 and the July 17 high was $30.35. A move above this area should be checked against volume and the Q2 report. |
| Higher resistance | $30.97 to $31.30 | The July 15 high was $30.97 and the July 10 high was $31.30. Rejection here would keep the stock in a short-term range. |
| Momentum | 1-month negative, 6-month negative, 1-year negative | The matched July 31 snapshot showed approximately negative 12% one-month, negative 43% six-month, and negative 35% one-year performance. A rebound from the July 24 low has not repaired the trend. |
| Volume and volatility | 5.41 million shares on July 31; 52-week range $26.54 to $66.74 | July 31 volume was below the reported 30-day average near 7.80 million shares. The August 6 earnings report, distribution news, and consumer data can widen the range. |
| Invalidation level | Below $26.54 on a closing basis | A sustained close below the July 24 low would invalidate the short-term rebound framework and raise the probability of another leg down. |
CELH AI trading strategy
This CELH AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework, not personalized advice. Because CELH combines consumer-brand execution, acquisition integration, high short interest, and a complex capital structure, price confirmation should be paired with Q2 results, retail sell-through, gross margin, PepsiCo distribution, debt, preferred dividends, and free-cash-flow checks.
Wait for a sustained reclaim of the $29.70 50-day average, then look for a move through $29.51 to $30.35 with stronger volume and no deterioration in Celsius or Alani Nu retail performance. A later reclaim of the $30.97 to $31.30 zone would provide stronger confirmation.
A close back below $28.43, or a break below $26.54, can invalidate the setup. Define risk per trade before entry and do not treat one high-volume session or the Q2 print as proof of a durable trend change.
If CELH holds the $26.54 to $27.52 zone, compare any rebound with Q2 results, brand retail velocity, gross-margin recovery, Pepsi concentration, free cash flow, debt repayment, and preferred-stock conversion before treating it as mean reversion.
Do not average down only because CELH trades below its 200-day average or because the brands are popular. A break below the July low combined with weaker retail data or margin guidance is a reason to reassess.
Track Q2 2026 results, Celsius, Alani Nu, and Rockstar retail sales, dollar share, revenue mix, gross margin, promotional allowances, distributor concentration, inventory, accounts receivable, interest expense, preferred dividends, share count, short interest, capex, operating cash flow, and free cash flow at each filing.
Use a position size that reflects consumer-brand and capital-structure risk. Revisit the thesis when retail velocity, integration costs, per-share economics, or short positioning change, not only when the chart reaches a price level.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Celsius for convenient functional beverages with distinctive flavors, zero-sugar or low-calorie positioning, energy and wellness claims, and broad availability. Revenue comes from branded products sold through distributors and retailers, with the portfolio now spanning CELSIUS, Alani Nu, and Rockstar Energy. The key first-principles question is whether consumers repeatedly choose the brands when shelf space and promotions normalize.
The moat is built from brand recognition, retail placement, marketing, product innovation, consumer data, and distribution access rather than hard technology. Q1 2026 portfolio retail sales rose 29.8% and held about 20.9% of the US RTD energy category in tracked channels, while CELSIUS held 9.9%, Alani Nu 9.0%, and Rockstar 2.0%. The Buffett question is whether the shelf, consumer habit, and distribution advantages remain ten years from now.
The thesis fails if acquired brands compete for the same shelf and consumer, Celsius retail growth stays slow, Rockstar continues to lose velocity, Pepsi prioritizes another brand, co-packers or aluminum constrain supply, or promotional spending absorbs the gross-profit gains. Pepsi accounted for 43.2% of FY2025 revenue, short interest was 15.62% of shares outstanding, and preferred stock with a $1.135 billion combined liquidation preference may dilute common shareholders on conversion. The main error to avoid is confusing a bigger revenue base with better common-stock economics.
CEO John Fieldly and the management team expanded the portfolio through the Alani Nu and Rockstar transactions, moved distribution toward PepsiCo, repaid part of the acquisition debt, and repurchased about $24.1 million of common stock in Q1 2026. The record also includes $327.5 million of distributor termination fees in 2025 and continuing integration costs. Management quality will be measured by whether it converts scale into higher margins and free cash flow per share. The key succession question is whether the brands can retain their edge without depending on one executive or one distributor relationship.
Functional beverages benefit from demand for energy, zero-sugar products, convenience, hydration, and wellness formats. The category has a credible multi-year runway, but it is not a permanent one-way trend. Monster, Red Bull, PepsiCo, Coca-Cola, private-label products, and newer functional brands compete for the same consumers, retail space, and marketing attention. Over a twenty-year view, Celsius could become a durable modern beverage platform, but it could also become a portfolio of brands whose growth fades after distribution expansion.
At $29.21, the common-stock market cap was about $7.47 billion, compared with TTM revenue of about $2.969 billion, TTM net income to common of about $109.2 million, and TTM free cash flow of about $292.8 million. The company also reported $549.2 million of cash and $668.9 million of long-term debt at March 31, 2026, before considering the economic cost of preferred stock. A margin of safety would require durable margin recovery, lower integration costs, and per-share cash-flow growth that can outrun dilution and the valuation multiple.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| CELH quote reference | $29.21 close on July 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis CELH price history | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $7,467.25 million calculated from $29.21 x 255.64036 million shares, matching the $7.47 billion third-party figure within rounding | Pineify financial_rigor.py and StockAnalysis statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 255,640,360 common shares as of April 30, 2026 | Celsius Holdings Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $2.515 billion, cross-checked between the 2025 Form 10-K at $2,515.269 million and StockAnalysis at $2,515 million | Celsius Holdings 2025 Form 10-K and StockAnalysis financials | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income and common income | $108.0 million GAAP net income and $63.837 million attributable to common stockholders | Celsius Holdings 2025 Form 10-K and StockAnalysis financials | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 operating update | $782.6 million revenue, $378.1 million gross profit, 48.3% gross margin, $110.1 million net income, and $0.33 diluted EPS | Celsius Holdings Q1 2026 results | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM financials | About $2.969 billion revenue, $109.24 million net income attributable to common stockholders, and $0.44 diluted EPS | StockAnalysis CELH financials | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM cash flow | $329.8 million operating cash flow, $37.0 million capital expenditures, and approximately $292.8 million free cash flow | StockAnalysis CELH cash flow statement | August 3, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | $549.2 million cash and $668.9 million long-term debt as of March 31, 2026 | Celsius Holdings Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | August 3, 2026 |
| Distributor concentration | Pepsi represented 43.2% of FY2025 revenue and 45.5% of accounts receivable at March 31, 2026 | Celsius Holdings 2025 Form 10-K and Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | August 3, 2026 |
| Preferred-stock overhang | $1.135 billion combined liquidation preference ($550.0 million Series A and $585.0 million Series B) at March 31, 2026, with about 33.4 million potentially dilutive common shares excluded from diluted EPS in Q1 2026 | Celsius Holdings Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | August 3, 2026 |
| Short interest | 39.94 million shares sold short, or 15.62% of shares outstanding, as of the latest reported settlement | StockAnalysis CELH statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Retail portfolio performance | Portfolio retail sales grew 29.8% and held about 20.9% US RTD energy dollar share for the 13 weeks ended March 29, 2026 | Celsius Holdings Q1 2026 results and Circana data cited by the company | August 3, 2026 |
| Valuation calculation | Near 66.39x TTM EPS and 25.40x TTM free cash flow using $29.21, $0.44 EPS, and $1.15 free cash flow per share, with a forward PE near 19x | Pineify financial_rigor.py and StockAnalysis financials | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy rating from 23 analysts with an average price target of $54.57, lowered across several firms during July 2026 | S&P Global via StockAnalysis CELH forecast | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | $29.21 close, $29.70 SMA50, $40.91 SMA200, $26.54 52-week low, $66.74 52-week high, and RSI near 48.8 | ChartExchange CELH market snapshot and StockAnalysis statistics | August 3, 2026 |
This CELH AI stock analysis is an informational tool, not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of returns. Forecast ranges are scenario illustrations built from available data and assumptions and may be wrong. Market prices, financial results, technical levels, and source data can change. Verify current filings and market information before making any decision.
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