Celsius Holdings, Inc. research snapshot
CELH AI stock analysis currently reads Celsius Holdings, Inc. as a scaled functional beverage platform with three energy brands, strong retail distribution, and a large opportunity to improve margins after the Alani Nu and Rockstar integrations. At the July 12, 2026 data cutoff, the latest verified close was $30.56 on July 10, the common-stock market capitalization was about $7.81 billion, and the stock traded near 70x TTM earnings and 27x TTM free cash flow using the latest reported data. The CELH AI stock forecast is therefore tied to portfolio retail velocity, PepsiCo execution, gross-margin recovery, debt and preferred-stock economics, and whether Celsius can turn acquired scale into durable per-share cash flow. This page is for information only and is not investment advice.
Current price
$30.56
Market cap
$7.81 billion calculated market cap, near the $7.82 billion reported figure
AI score
61 / 100
Rating
High-growth beverage portfolio with material integration and dilution risk
Trend status
Short-term rebound attempt near the 50-day average, still well below the 200-day average
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026 (latest market close: July 10, 2026)
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Celsius owns CELSIUS, Alani Nu, and Rockstar Energy and sells functional energy, hydration, powder, and wellness products through grocery, convenience, fitness, mass retail, specialty, and e-commerce channels. | High |
| Moat | Brand identity, product positioning, shelf access, retail data, marketing reach, and PepsiCo distribution create a useful consumer moat, but beverage preferences change quickly and product formulas are not hard to copy. | Medium |
| Management | CEO John Fieldly and the team executed two major portfolio transactions and expanded distribution, but the Alani Nu and Rockstar integration, debt repayment, preferred-stock terms, and distributor transition remain demanding tests of capital allocation. | Medium |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue rose 85.5% to $2.515 billion, helped by acquisitions. Q1 2026 revenue rose 137.7% to $782.6 million, while gross margin was 48.3% and net income was $110.1 million. | High |
| Valuation | At $30.56, Pineify math gives about 71x TTM EPS and 27x TTM free cash flow. The multiple can look reasonable only if margin recovery and sustained portfolio growth lift future per-share earnings. | High |
| Technical trend | The July 10 close was close to the 50-day average near $30.48 but far below the 200-day average near $43.18. Recent performance remained negative over six and twelve months despite a short rebound from the June low. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Risk is elevated because Pepsi represented 43.2% of FY2025 revenue, the company relies on co-packers, acquired brands need integration, debt and preferred dividends reduce common-stock economics, and energy-drink competition is intense. | High |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because SEC filings, company releases, and third-party financial data align on the core numbers. Forecast confidence is lower because post-acquisition margins, brand overlap, and the capital structure are still changing. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Celsius may be a good operating platform, but the common stock requires evidence that acquired revenue converts into normalized earnings and cash flow after interest, preferred dividends, integration costs, and dilution. | Medium-low |
CELH AI stock forecast
The CELH AI stock forecast uses $30.56 as the reference price and roughly $0.43 of TTM diluted EPS. Pineify financial_rigor.py produced a three-year illustration of about $25.20 in a 25% EPS-growth and 30x terminal P/E case, $15.70 in a 15% growth and 24x P/E case, and $9.00 in a 5% growth and 18x P/E case. These calculations are sensitivity tests, not company guidance or promised prices. They show that the current price already requires a better mix of growth, margin, and capital structure than the base case assumes.
$24 to $34
More likely if Celsius brand retail growth reaccelerates, Alani Nu sustains strong sell-through, Rockstar stabilizes, PepsiCo expands distribution efficiently, gross margin returns toward the low 50s, and operating costs grow slower than revenue.
$14 to $22
More likely if the portfolio grows but Celsius brand growth stays moderate, integration benefits arrive gradually, gross margin improves without reaching the prior profile, cash flow remains positive, and the market applies a lower multiple to a more complex beverage portfolio.
$7 to $13
More likely if acquired brands cannibalize shelf space, retail velocity weakens, Pepsi or other distributors change priorities, aluminum, freight, or promotional costs remain high, debt and preferred economics limit common EPS, or the market values CELH like a slower beverage company.
CELH AI technical analysis
CELH AI technical analysis at the July 12, 2026 cutoff uses the July 10 historical close and the latest matched market snapshot. Price was $30.56, the 50-day SMA was about $30.48, the 200-day SMA was about $43.18, the 52-week range was $27.47 to $66.74, and six-month performance was approximately negative 33%. Same-date RSI and MACD readings were not available in a consistently timestamped source, so this page does not infer an overbought or oversold signal from a mismatched snapshot.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $30.56 | July 10, 2026 close from StockAnalysis. This is the price reference used for market-cap and valuation calculations. |
| Immediate support | $29.88 to $30.00 | The July 9 intraday low was $29.88, with $30.00 as a nearby round-number level. These are reference levels, not guaranteed reversal points. |
| Deeper support | $27.47 to $28.40 | The reported 52-week low was $27.47 and the June 11 close was $28.40. A break of this zone would weaken the rebound structure. |
| 50-day moving average | $30.48 | Latest matched ChartExchange snapshot. A sustained close above this average would improve the short-term trend signal. |
| 200-day moving average | $43.18 | Latest matched ChartExchange snapshot. The large gap between price and this average shows that the longer-term trend remains damaged. |
| Near resistance | $31.30 to $31.70 | The July 10 high was $31.30 and the July 7 close was $31.70. A move above this area should be checked against volume and retail data. |
| Higher resistance | $33.80 to $34.00 | The July 2 high was $33.80 and the July 7 high was $33.97. Rejection here would keep the stock in a short-term range. |
| Momentum | 1-month positive, 6-month negative, 1-year negative | The matched July 10 snapshot showed a short rebound but approximately negative 33% six-month and negative 31% one-year performance. Momentum has not repaired the long-term trend. |
| Volume and volatility | 3.38 million shares on July 10; 52-week range $27.47 to $66.74 | July 10 volume was below the reported 30-day average near 9.32 million shares. Earnings, distribution news, and consumer data can widen the range. |
| Invalidation level | Below $27.47 on a closing basis | A sustained close below the 52-week low zone would invalidate the short-term rebound framework and raise the probability of another leg down. |
CELH AI trading strategy
This CELH AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework, not personalized advice. Because CELH combines consumer-brand execution, acquisition integration, and a complex capital structure, price confirmation should be paired with retail sell-through, gross margin, PepsiCo distribution, debt, preferred dividends, and free-cash-flow checks.
Wait for a sustained reclaim of the $30.48 50-day average, then look for a move through $31.30 to $31.70 with stronger volume and no deterioration in Celsius or Alani Nu retail performance. A later reclaim of the $33.80 to $34.00 zone would provide stronger confirmation.
A close back below $29.88, or a break below $27.47, can invalidate the setup. Define risk per trade before entry and do not treat one high-volume session as proof of a durable trend change.
If CELH holds the $27.47 to $28.40 support zone, compare any rebound with brand retail velocity, gross-margin recovery, Pepsi concentration, free cash flow, debt repayment, and preferred-stock conversion before treating it as mean reversion.
Do not average down only because CELH trades below its 200-day average or because the brands are popular. A support break combined with weaker retail data or margin guidance is a reason to reassess.
Track Celsius, Alani Nu, and Rockstar retail sales, dollar share, revenue mix, gross margin, promotional allowances, distributor concentration, inventory, accounts receivable, interest expense, preferred dividends, share count, capex, operating cash flow, and free cash flow at each filing.
Use a position size that reflects consumer-brand and capital-structure risk. Revisit the thesis when retail velocity, integration costs, or per-share economics change, not only when the chart reaches a price level.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Celsius for convenient functional beverages with distinctive flavors, zero-sugar or low-calorie positioning, energy and wellness claims, and broad availability. Revenue comes from branded products sold through distributors and retailers, with the portfolio now spanning CELSIUS, Alani Nu, and Rockstar Energy. The key first-principles question is whether consumers repeatedly choose the brands when shelf space and promotions normalize.
The moat is built from brand recognition, retail placement, marketing, product innovation, consumer data, and distribution access rather than hard technology. Q1 2026 portfolio retail sales rose 29.8% and held about 20.9% of the US RTD energy category in tracked channels, while CELSIUS held 9.9%, Alani Nu 9.0%, and Rockstar 2.0%. The Buffett question is whether the shelf, consumer habit, and distribution advantages remain ten years from now.
The thesis fails if acquired brands compete for the same shelf and consumer, Celsius retail growth stays slow, Rockstar continues to lose velocity, Pepsi prioritizes another brand, co-packers or aluminum constrain supply, or promotional spending absorbs the gross-profit gains. Pepsi accounted for 43.2% of FY2025 revenue, and preferred stock with a $1.135 billion liquidation preference may convert into about 33.3 million common shares. The main error to avoid is confusing a bigger revenue base with better common-stock economics.
CEO John Fieldly and the management team expanded the portfolio through the Alani Nu and Rockstar transactions, moved distribution toward PepsiCo, repaid part of the acquisition debt, and repurchased common stock. The record also includes $327.5 million of distributor termination fees in 2025 and continuing integration costs. Management quality will be measured by whether it converts scale into higher margins and free cash flow per share. The key succession question is whether the brands can retain their edge without depending on one executive or one distributor relationship.
Functional beverages benefit from demand for energy, zero-sugar products, convenience, hydration, and wellness formats. The category has a credible multi-year runway, but it is not a permanent one-way trend. Monster, Red Bull, PepsiCo, Coca-Cola, private-label products, and newer functional brands compete for the same consumers, retail space, and marketing attention. Over a twenty-year view, Celsius could become a durable modern beverage platform, but it could also become a portfolio of brands whose growth fades after distribution expansion.
At $30.56, the common-stock market cap was about $7.81 billion, compared with TTM revenue of about $2.969 billion, TTM net income to common of about $109.2 million, and TTM free cash flow of about $292.8 million. The company also reported $549.2 million of cash and $668.9 million of long-term debt at March 31, 2026, before considering the economic cost of preferred stock. A margin of safety would require durable margin recovery, lower integration costs, and per-share cash-flow growth that can outrun dilution and the valuation multiple.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| CELH quote reference | $30.56 close on July 10, 2026 | StockAnalysis CELH price history | July 12, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $7,812.37 million calculated from $30.56 x 255.64036 million shares, matching the $7.82 billion third-party figure within rounding | Pineify financial_rigor.py and StockAnalysis statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 255.640 million common shares as of April 30, 2026 | Celsius Holdings Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $2.515 billion, cross-checked between the 2025 Form 10-K at $2,515.269 million and StockAnalysis at $2,515 million | Celsius Holdings 2025 Form 10-K and StockAnalysis financials | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income and common income | $107.999 million GAAP net income and $63.837 million attributable to common stockholders | Celsius Holdings 2025 Form 10-K and StockAnalysis financials | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 operating update | $782.6 million revenue, $378.1 million gross profit, 48.3% gross margin, $110.1 million net income, and $0.33 diluted EPS | Celsius Holdings Q1 2026 results | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 cash flow | $359.4 million operating cash flow, $36.1 million capital expenditures, and approximately $323.4 million free cash flow | Celsius Holdings 2025 Form 10-K and StockAnalysis financials | July 12, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | $549.2 million cash and $668.9 million long-term debt as of March 31, 2026 | Celsius Holdings Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | July 12, 2026 |
| Distributor concentration | Pepsi represented 43.2% of FY2025 revenue and 45.5% of accounts receivable at March 31, 2026 | Celsius Holdings 2025 Form 10-K and Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | July 12, 2026 |
| Preferred-stock overhang | $1.135 billion combined liquidation preference and approximately 33.3 million common shares issuable upon conversion at March 31, 2026 | Celsius Holdings Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | July 12, 2026 |
| Retail portfolio performance | Portfolio retail sales grew 29.8% and held about 20.9% US RTD energy dollar share for the 13 weeks ended March 29, 2026 | Celsius Holdings Q1 2026 results and Circana data cited by the company | July 12, 2026 |
| Valuation calculation | Near 71.07x TTM EPS and 27.04x TTM free cash flow using $30.56, $0.43 EPS, and $1.13 free cash flow per share | Pineify financial_rigor.py and StockAnalysis financials | July 12, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | $30.56 close, $30.48 SMA50, $43.18 SMA200, $27.47 52-week low, and $66.74 52-week high | ChartExchange CELH market and technical snapshot | July 12, 2026 |
This CELH AI stock analysis is an informational tool, not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of returns. Forecast ranges are scenario illustrations built from available data and assumptions and may be wrong. Market prices, financial results, technical levels, and source data can change. Verify current filings and market information before making any decision.
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