Merit Medical Systems Inc. research snapshot
MMSI AI stock analysis as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff reads Merit Medical as a medical device company that just posted its strongest quarterly organic growth in three years and raised full-year guidance, while the stock jumped roughly 14% over five sessions into a full valuation with overbought momentum. The stock traded at $85.87 on August 3, 2026 at 11:20 AM EDT, up 1.01% from the $85.01 close on July 31, within a $85.43 to $87.81 day range after opening at $86.13, carrying a market capitalization near $5.13 billion, reported by StockAnalysis.com and consistent with $85.87 times 59.71 million shares outstanding. The Q2 2026 report, released July 30, 2026, exceeded expectations with reported revenue of $418.8 million up 10%, constant currency revenue and organic revenue both up 9%, non-GAAP gross margin of 55.8% up 262 basis points, non-GAAP operating margin of 22.6% up 142 basis points, non-GAAP EPS of $1.19 up 18%, and about $52 million of free cash flow in the quarter, while U.S. sales grew 10% year over year. Management raised full-year 2026 revenue guidance to $1.631 billion to $1.643 billion (up about 8%) and non-GAAP EPS guidance to $4.25 to $4.35 (up 11% to 14%), and guided Q3 2026 organic constant currency growth of 7% to 8%. The stock sits above its 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages of roughly $82.82, $75.72, $70.10, $68.47, and $76.04, with 14-day RSI near 79.83 on Barchart and 80.02 on StockAnalysis.com, overbought after the earnings surge, and with the 52-week high of $94.75 overhead. The page is informational only and is not investment advice.
Current price
$85.87 at the August 3, 2026, 11:20 AM EDT reading, up 1.01% from the $85.01 July 31 close, within a $85.43 to $87.81 day range after opening at $86.13
Market cap
$5.13 billion
AI score
74 / 100
Rating
Accelerating growth at a fuller valuation
Trend status
Bullish after a post-earnings jump of about 14% in five days, now above the 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages with RSI near 80
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Merit Medical sells single-use medical devices for interventional cardiology, radiology, oncology, endoscopy, and other procedures, with TTM revenue near $1.58 billion, TTM net income near $145.6 million, and a Q2 2026 organic growth rate of 9%, the strongest in three years. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from a broad regulatory-cleared product portfolio, hospital and GPO relationships, manufacturing scale in niche interventional categories, and the switching cost of clinician training, but it is not as wide as category-defining giants like Boston Scientific or Medtronic. | Medium |
| Management | CEO Martha Aronson, in the role for about nine months as of the Q2 2026 call, is running a platform-based reorganization, finalizing the Continued Growth Initiatives program, integrating BioLife, C2, and View Point Medical, and developing a 2027 to 2029 strategic plan, with CFO Raul Parra and COO Neil Peterson in supporting roles. | Medium |
| Financial trend | Q2 2026 revenue rose 10% reported and 9% constant currency with 9% organic growth, non-GAAP gross margin reached 55.8% up 262 basis points (54.2% excluding a $6.9 million tariff refund), non-GAAP operating margin hit 22.6% up 142 basis points, non-GAAP EPS rose 18% to $1.19, and free cash flow was about $52 million, while management raised full-year revenue and EPS guidance. | High |
| Valuation | At about 35.3x trailing EPS, 19.7x forward EPS, 3.31x sales, 3.02x book value, and 25.71x free cash flow with a PEG of 1.43, the stock prices in a continuation of mid-teens EPS growth rather than a deep discount. | Medium |
| Technical trend | MMSI traded at $85.87 on August 3, 2026 at 11:20 AM EDT, up 1.01% from the $85.01 July 31 close and about 14% over five days, now above its 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages of roughly $82.82, $75.72, $70.10, $68.47, and $76.04, with 14-day RSI near 79.83 on Barchart and 80.02 on StockAnalysis.com and 14-day ADX near 30.06 confirming a trending move that is stretched short term. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are tariff volatility including a Section 122 overhang and a modeled $16 million or $0.21 per share 2026 tariff impact, hospital budget and GPO pricing pressure, competition from larger medtech firms, acquisition integration, OEM lumpiness, China growth of only low single digits, a renal recall that was resolved in Q2, and an overbought technical setup after the earnings surge. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for descriptive facts and cross-checked math that matched across StockAnalysis.com, the Q2 2026 earnings release, the Q2 2026 Form 10-Q, and the Q2 2026 earnings call. Lower for forward return estimates because tariff policy, hospital spending, acquisition integration, and multiples are uncertain. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. The page gives a research framework and scenario ranges, not a buy or sell instruction. | Medium |
MMSI AI stock forecast
The MMSI AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges around the $85.87 August 3, 2026 reading and the raised FY2026 non-GAAP EPS guidance midpoint of $4.30. The three-scenario framework produced a bearish area near $55 to $70, a base area near $90 to $115, and a bullish area near $125 to $160 before dilution, using non-GAAP EPS growth and exit multiples that stay consistent with the stock trading at about 20x forward earnings. These are scenarios, not price commitments.
$125 to $160
More likely if Merit sustains double-digit organic growth into 2027, keeps expanding the non-GAAP operating margin toward the high end of the 20% to 22% CGI band, integrates BioLife, C2, and View Point Medical ahead of plan, launches OneMark and SCOUT MD successfully, and investors assign a forward P/E near 22x to 24x, which would need tariff pressure to ease and hospital spending to hold.
$90 to $115
More likely if organic growth normalizes to high single digits after the Q2 surge, the non-GAAP operating margin stays near 22%, guidance of $4.25 to $4.35 non-GAAP EPS is delivered, and the stock trades near a 19x to 20x forward multiple, consistent with the consensus target near $99.82 and the analyst high of $114.
$55 to $70
More likely if organic growth fades toward mid single digits, tariff costs rise beyond the modeled $16 million, hospital budget pressure and GPO pricing squeeze margins, China stays soft, an acquisition disappoints, or the broader medtech sector de-rates, pulling MMSI toward the 52-week low area of $59.74.
MMSI AI technical analysis
MMSI AI technical analysis is bullish but overbought as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff. The stock traded at $85.87 at 11:20 AM EDT, up 1.01% from the $85.01 July 31 close and about 14% over five days after the July 30 Q2 report, above its 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages of roughly $82.82, $75.72, $70.10, $68.47, and $76.04, with 14-day RSI near 79.83 on Barchart and 80.02 on StockAnalysis.com, 14-day ADX near 30.06, and the 52-week high of $94.75 overhead as the next resistance. Because this page does not fetch request-time market data, traders should confirm levels on a live chart before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $85.87 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote at the August 3, 2026, 11:20 AM EDT reading, up 1.01% from the $85.01 July 31 close within a $85.43 to $87.81 day range after opening at $86.13; the reported $5.13 billion market cap matches $85.87 times 59.71 million shares outstanding. |
| 5-day moving average | $82.82 | Barchart reported the 5-day moving average near $82.82 on August 3, 2026, below the current price after the post-earnings surge, and a natural first pullback reference. |
| Near support | $82 to $84 | The 5-day moving average near $82.82 and the $85.01 prior close sit just below price. A hold above $82 would keep the short-term move intact after a parabolic climb. |
| Support cluster | $75 to $77 | Barchart reported the 20-day moving average near $75.72 and the 200-day near $76.04 on August 3, 2026, forming a support zone that previously capped the stock before the earnings break. |
| Key support | $68 to $71 | The 50-day moving average is near $70.10 to $70.11 and the 100-day near $68.47, a stronger support zone for any deeper pullback. |
| Near resistance | $88 to $92 | The stock needs to hold above $87.81 to extend the rally; the next overhead area is roughly $88 to $92 before the 52-week high. |
| Key resistance | $94.75 | The 52-week high of $94.75 is the major overhead level. A clean break above it with volume would signal a new high rather than a failed rally. |
| 50-day moving average | $70.10 | Barchart reported the 50-day moving average near $70.10 on August 3, 2026, matching StockAnalysis.com at $70.11, well below price and confirming the medium-term uptrend. |
| 200-day moving average | $76.04 | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com both reported the 200-day trend line near $76.04 on August 3, 2026, below price and confirming the longer-term uptrend after the earnings break. |
| Momentum | RSI near 80, ADX near 30 | 14-day RSI was near 79.83 on Barchart and 80.02 on StockAnalysis.com on August 3, 2026, overbought after the earnings surge, while 14-day ADX near 30.06 confirmed a trending move that is stretched short term. |
| Volume | About 854,000 average shares | StockAnalysis.com listed 20-day average volume near 853,823 shares and Barchart near 859,872 on August 3, 2026, with about 576,579 shares traded by the midday reading, useful for checking breakout quality. |
| Volatility | Beta 0.47 | MMSI has below-market volatility with a 5-year beta of 0.47 and 14-day historical volatility near 27.58% on Barchart, so swings are amplified after earnings and tariff headlines. |
| Invalidation | Close below $82, then $75 | A decisive close below the 5-day moving average near $82.82 would cool the short-term surge; a close below the $75 to $77 support cluster would break the post-earnings uptrend and turn the picture back to range-bound. |
MMSI AI trading strategy
The MMSI AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework, not personalized advice. It combines filing-backed business evidence, technical confirmation, position sizing, and clear invalidation levels, and it should be paired with fresh chart data and your own risk limits.
Watch for MMSI to hold above the $82.82 five-day moving average and to build volume on a move toward the $87.81 day high and the $94.75 52-week high, with the 200-day trend line near $76.04 still rising.
A daily close below the 5-day moving average near $82.82 or a failed attempt at the 52-week high with weak volume should trigger a stop and review, because RSI near 80 leaves little room for another extension without consolidation.
If MMSI pulls back toward the $75 to $77 support cluster near the 20-day and 200-day moving averages without a thesis break, look for stabilization signals such as higher lows or RSI resetting below overbought before considering entry.
Do not average down solely because the stock is cheaper after a 14% five-day jump. Define maximum loss per position and review the FY2026 guidance path, tariff exposure, and acquisition integration first.
Track Q3 2026 earnings (guided to $408 million to $413 million revenue with 7% to 8% organic growth and non-GAAP EPS of $0.98 to $1.08), the OneMark and SCOUT MD commercial launches, WRAPSODY CIE adoption, OEM order trends, tariff policy changes, BioLife and C2 revenue, and the 2027 to 2029 strategic plan announcement.
Reduce confidence if organic growth decelerates below 6% to 7%, if non-GAAP EPS falls short of the $4.25 to $4.35 guidance midpoint, or if tariff costs rise well above the modeled $16 million, and treat the CGI margin band of 20% to 22% as the key operating benchmark.
Investment research summary
Merit Medical sells single-use disposable medical devices to hospitals and physicians for interventional cardiology, radiology, oncology, endoscopy, and other procedures. Customers pay for reliability, regulatory compliance, and procedural efficiency, and revenue is recurring through procedure volumes rather than one-time hardware sales.
The moat comes from a broad regulatory-cleared portfolio, long-standing hospital and GPO relationships, manufacturing scale in niche interventional categories, and the switching cost of clinician training. It is real but moderate, and it faces the pricing and R&D weight of larger competitors such as Boston Scientific, Medtronic, and Abbott.
The thesis can fail if the 9% organic growth proves to be a tariff-refund and OEM-stocking artifact, if hospital budget pressure and GPO pricing squeeze margins, if the renal recall or another quality event returns, if C2, BioLife, or View Point Medical integrations disappoint, if China stays soft, if tariff policy adds more than the modeled $16 million, or if the overbought post-earnings surge reverses and the multiple compresses toward the 52-week low area of $59.74.
CEO Martha Aronson, in the role for about nine months as of the Q2 2026 call, is running a platform-based reorganization and finalizing the Continued Growth Initiatives program while developing the 2027 to 2029 strategic plan. CFO Raul Parra is driving the gross margin and cost agenda, and new board member Scott Ward adds deep medtech operating experience. Key-person and transition risk is now lower but still present during the leadership change.
The shift toward minimally invasive procedures, aging demographics in developed markets, and growing healthcare utilization support long-term demand for Merit products. Hospital budget scrutiny, ACA subsidy changes, and group purchasing pressure remain headwinds, and the company reports it has not yet seen a procedure-volume slowdown.
At about 35.3x trailing EPS and 19.7x forward EPS near a $4.30 midpoint for the raised FY2026 non-GAAP EPS guidance, the stock is no longer a beaten-down value. The three-scenario model suggests the base case offers modest upside near the consensus target of $99.82, the bullish case requires sustained double-digit organic growth and continued margin expansion, and the bearish case protects against a fade toward the 52-week low zone.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| MMSI price | $85.87 at the August 3, 2026, 11:20 AM EDT reading, up 1.01% from the $85.01 July 31 close, within a $85.43 to $87.81 day range after opening at $86.13 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $5.13 billion, reported by StockAnalysis.com and consistent with $85.87 x 59.71 million shares outstanding (verified by financial_rigor.py market cap check at 0.05% deviation) | StockAnalysis.com quote and share statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 revenue | $418.8 million, up 10% GAAP, up 9% constant currency, and up 9% organic constant currency, excluding $4.7 million of acquisition revenue and $5.3 million of divested DualCap revenue | Merit Medical Q2 2026 earnings release and Q2 2026 earnings call | July 30, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 profitability | GAAP operating margin of 14.4% versus 12.3%, non-GAAP operating margin of 22.6% versus 21.2% (up 142 basis points, or 20.9% excluding a $6.9 million tariff refund), GAAP EPS of $0.65 up 20%, and non-GAAP EPS of $1.19 up 18% ($1.10 excluding the $0.09 after-tax tariff refund benefit) | Merit Medical Q2 2026 earnings release and Q2 2026 earnings call | July 30, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 gross margin | GAAP gross margin of 51.4% versus 48.2%; non-GAAP gross margin of 55.8% versus 53.2%, up 262 basis points, or 54.2% up 98 basis points excluding the $6.9 million IEEPA tariff refund | Merit Medical Q2 2026 earnings release and Q2 2026 earnings call | July 30, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 segment performance | Foundational products revenue of $280.961 million up 7% (organic up 7.8%), Therapeutic products revenue of $137.882 million up 15% (organic up 11.7%), Access up 6%, OEM up 12% with total OEM sales up 15%, Procedural Solutions down 12% due to the DualCap divestiture (up 5% organic), Vascular Intervention up 19%, Cardiac Therapies up 24%, and Endoscopy up 29% | Merit Medical Q2 2026 earnings release and Q2 2026 earnings call | July 30, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 cash flow | About $52 million of free cash flow in Q2 and $76.6 million year to date, with $110.0 million of operating cash flow year to date, down 11% year over year | Merit Medical Q2 2026 earnings release and Q2 2026 earnings call | July 30, 2026 |
| FY2026 guidance (raised July 30, 2026) | Total revenue of $1.631 billion to $1.643 billion, up about 8%, and non-GAAP EPS of $4.25 to $4.35, up 11% to 14%, raised from prior revenue of $1.612 billion to $1.634 billion and prior non-GAAP EPS of $4.01 to $4.15; the guidance assumes a $16 million or $0.21 per share 2026 tariff impact and about $7 million of WRAPSODY CIE U.S. revenue | Merit Medical Q2 2026 earnings release and Q2 2026 earnings call | July 30, 2026 |
| Q3 2026 guidance | Revenue of $408 million to $413 million, up 6% to 8% GAAP and about 6% to 7.5% constant currency, with organic constant currency growth of 7% to 8%, non-GAAP operating margin of about 19.6% to 21.5%, and non-GAAP EPS of $0.98 to $1.08 | Merit Medical Q2 2026 earnings call | July 30, 2026 |
| Continued Growth Initiatives targets | For the three years ending December 31, 2026: organic constant currency revenue CAGR of 5% to 7%, non-GAAP operating margin of 20% to 22%, and cumulative free cash flow above $400 million, with about $200 million still targeted for 2026 and operating margin improvement near 950 basis points if 2026 guidance hits the high end | Merit Medical Q2 2026 earnings call | July 30, 2026 |
| Balance sheet as of June 30, 2026 | Cash and cash equivalents of $448.7 million, total debt obligations of $747.5 million (per the Q2 2026 earnings release and Form 10-Q), available borrowing capacity of about $697 million, and net leverage of 1.6x adjusted; the StockAnalysis.com statistics page reports total debt of $820.12 million under S&P Global classification, so the debt figure varies by definition | Merit Medical Q2 2026 earnings release, Q2 2026 Form 10-Q, and StockAnalysis.com | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM financials | TTM revenue of $1.58 billion up 10.2%, TTM net income of $145.56 million up 22.2%, TTM EPS of $2.43, TTM operating cash flow of $283.45 million, and TTM free cash flow of $203.21 million | StockAnalysis.com statistics and financials | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 results | Revenue of $1.516 billion up 11.75%, net income of $128.49 million, EPS of $2.13, and operating margin of 12.19%, with five-year revenue trending from $1.075 billion in FY2021 to $1.516 billion in FY2025 | StockAnalysis.com financials | August 3, 2026 |
| Valuation check | 35.33x trailing PE, 19.69x forward PE, 3.31x sales, 3.02x book value, 25.71x free cash flow, 1.43x PEG, EV/EBITDA of 17.18, and no dividend | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy with an average target of $99.82 across 11 analysts, low of $83 and high of $114, median of $100, with 4 Strong Buy, 5 Buy, and 2 Hold ratings in July 2026 | StockAnalysis.com forecast and analyst ratings | August 3, 2026 |
| Recent analyst target updates | Canaccord raised to $94 on August 3, Barrington raised to $114, Raymond James to $100, BTIG to $105, JPMorgan to $95, Needham to $101, Piper Sandler to $106, and Baird to $98 following the Q2 2026 beat, while Bank of America maintained a Hold | StockAnalysis.com forecast and news feed | August 3, 2026 |
| Consensus estimates | FY2026 revenue estimate near $1.62 billion with non-GAAP EPS near $4.07, and FY2027 revenue near $1.72 billion with non-GAAP EPS near $4.40, below the raised $4.25 to $4.35 company guidance | StockAnalysis.com forecast financial forecast | August 3, 2026 |
| Share statistics | 59.71 million shares outstanding down 0.86% year over year, float of 58.28 million, insider ownership of 2.36%, and institutional ownership of 104% per StockAnalysis.com | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Short interest | 3.44 million shares short, 5.76% of shares outstanding, 5.90% of float, and 4.20 days to cover | StockAnalysis.com statistics short selling | August 3, 2026 |
| 52-week range and performance | 52-week range of $59.74 to $94.75, up 2.37% over the trailing 52 weeks and down about 1.75% year to date, with a 5-year beta of 0.47 | StockAnalysis.com quote, statistics, and Barchart | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 5-day SMA near $82.82, 20-day SMA near $75.72, 50-day SMA near $70.10, 100-day SMA near $68.47, 200-day SMA near $76.04, 14-day RSI near 79.83, 14-day ADX near 30.06, and 14-day historical volatility near 27.58% | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com technical snapshots | August 3, 2026 |
| Leadership | President and CEO Martha Aronson (in the role for about nine months as of July 30, 2026), CFO and Treasurer Raul Parra Jr., COO Neil W. Peterson, CLO Brian G. Lloyd, and new board member Scott Ward elected May 19, 2026 | Merit Medical Q2 2026 earnings call and StockAnalysis.com company profile | August 3, 2026 |
This MMSI AI stock analysis is an informational research tool, not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future return. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available filings, quote snapshots, and third-party data as of the stated cutoff date. They may be wrong, incomplete, or outdated after new earnings, tariff policy changes, regulatory events, market moves, or macro conditions.
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