Merit Medical Systems Inc. research snapshot
MMSI AI stock analysis currently reads Merit Medical Systems as a well-run medical device manufacturer with founder-led management, steady revenue growth, and a moderate valuation that has compressed from its 2025 highs. The analysis is not a certain price prediction. At the July 12, 2026 cutoff, the latest verified close used here was $73.44, market capitalization was about $4.38 billion, and the main question was whether mid-single-digit organic growth, margin expansion from new products, and acquisition integration can justify a forward P/E in the low 20s. This is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$73.44
Market cap
$4.38 billion
AI score
64 / 100
Rating
Good business, fair-to-rich valuation
Trend status
Down 17% YTD in a 52-week range of $59.74-$94.75
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Merit Medical manufactures single-use medical devices for interventional cardiology, radiology, oncology, and endoscopy. Repeat-purchase disposables and a broad hospital customer base support steady demand. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from product breadth, regulatory approvals, long-standing hospital relationships, and manufacturing scale in niche interventional categories. Switching costs are moderate but not as wide as category-defining giants. | Medium |
| Management | Founder and CEO Fred Lampropoulos has led the company since 1987 with a record of organic development and targeted acquisitions. Insider ownership is low at 0.7%, but the long tenure provides strategic continuity. | Medium |
| Financial trend | TTM revenue was about $1.54 billion with 7.4% quarterly revenue growth in the most recent reported quarter. Net income was $128-139 million, and the company generates positive free cash flow. Margins are healthy but not best-in-class. | High |
| Valuation | The stock traded near 31.8x TTM earnings and 20.3x forward earnings at the cutoff, with a P/B of 2.75x and EV/EBITDA of about 13x. The PEG ratio of 2.28 suggests moderate growth expectations. | Medium |
| Technical trend | MMSI is in a downtrend from its 52-week high, down about 22% from the $94.75 peak. The stock has recently bounced from the $59.74 low toward the $73 area, but has not reclaimed its 50-day or 200-day moving averages on a sustained basis. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are acquisition integration, pricing pressure from large hospital group purchasing organizations, raw material cost inflation, regulatory quality system requirements, and competition from larger medtech firms with deeper R&D budgets. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Medium-high confidence for the business map, latest filings, market cap math, and major risk categories. Lower confidence for future returns or quarter-to-quarter earnings precision. | Medium-high data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. Merit Medical is a reasonably predictable business, but the stock price has been volatile and the medtech sector faces hospital budget scrutiny. | Medium |
MMSI AI stock forecast
The MMSI AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges around the $73.44 cutoff price. It does not claim that AI can predict a specific future price. The bullish case requires new product adoption, sustained hospital utilization, successful acquisitions, and margin expansion. The base case assumes mid-single-digit compounding with a range-bound multiple. The bearish case assumes growth disappoints or the medtech sector de-rates.
$81 to $107
More likely if Merit delivers above-consensus organic growth (8-10%), new products gain traction, acquisitions integrate well, and investors re-rate the stock toward a forward P/E near 25x as confidence in the growth trajectory improves.
$58 to $73
More likely if earnings grow at a mid-single-digit pace, margins hold steady, and investors value MMSI near an 18-22x forward earnings multiple, consistent with its recent trading range.
$40 to $55
More likely if hospital capital spending tightens, competitive pressure increases, acquisition integration proves difficult, or the broader medtech sector de-rates as investors rotate elsewhere.
MMSI AI technical analysis
MMSI AI technical analysis starts from the $73.44 close used for this July 12 static page. The stock has been in a corrective phase since its mid-2025 highs near $95, recently bouncing from the $60 support zone toward $73. Because this page does not fetch request-time market data, traders should confirm levels on a live chart before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $73.44 | Latest verified close used for this page as of the July 12, 2026 data cutoff. |
| Near support | $68 to $70 | Recent swing low area. A hold above this zone would suggest the bounce from $60 may extend. |
| Key support | $59 to $60 | The 52-week low zone and a critical level. A sustained break below $59 would signal a new leg down. |
| Near resistance | $75 to $78 | The 50-day moving average area and prior breakdown level. A reclaim would be the first sign of trend stabilization. |
| Secondary resistance | $88 to $90 | The 200-day moving average area. A recovery above this zone would challenge the broader downtrend. |
| 50-day moving average | Approximately $76 to $78 | The stock was trading below its 50-day MA at the time of this analysis. A cross above would be a near-term positive signal. |
| 200-day moving average | Approximately $88 to $90 | The 200-day MA sits well above current price, indicating the intermediate trend remains down until reclaimed. |
| Momentum | RSI near 50, mixed oscillators | RSI was recovering from oversold territory toward neutral. Momentum indicators show the bounce from $60 has room but need confirmation. |
| Volume | About 750,000 shares (recent average) | Volume during the bounce has been moderate. A breakout on above-average volume would be more convincing. |
| Volatility | Beta 0.52 | MMSI has below-market volatility, which can mean smaller intraday swings but also slower recovery from drawdowns. |
| Invalidation | Close below $68, then $59 | A close below $68 would weaken the bounce thesis. A break below $59 would invalidate the recovery setup. |
MMSI AI trading strategy
The MMSI AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework, not personalized advice. It combines filing-backed business evidence, technical confirmation, position sizing, and clear invalidation levels.
Look for MMSI to reclaim and hold above the $75-$78 resistance zone (50-day MA area) with improving volume before treating the downtrend as potentially reversing.
A failed breakout or daily close back below $70 should reduce confidence. The downtrend is the dominant regime until proven otherwise.
If MMSI pulls back toward the $60-$65 zone without a fundamental thesis break, look for stabilization signals such as higher lows on the daily chart or RSI holding above 30.
Do not average down solely because the stock is cheaper. Define maximum loss per position and review the earnings outlook first.
Track Q2 FY2026 earnings on July 30, new product launches, organic revenue growth trajectory, gross margin trends, acquisition integration updates, and insider trading patterns.
Lower the rating if revenue growth slows below 5% or if management lowers guidance. A rising short interest above 8% would also warrant caution.
Investment research summary
Merit Medical sells single-use disposable medical devices to hospitals for interventional cardiology, radiology, oncology, and endoscopy procedures. Customers pay for reliability, regulatory compliance, and procedural efficiency.
The moat comes from a broad regulatory-cleared product portfolio, long-standing hospital group purchasing contracts, manufacturing scale in niche interventional categories, and the switching cost of training clinicians on Merit-specific devices.
The thesis can fail if larger competitors (Boston Scientific, Medtronic, Abbott) develop superior alternatives, hospital group purchasing squeezes margins, acquisition integration distracts management, or the founder-led culture becomes a key-person risk upon succession.
Founder Fred Lampropoulos has led the company for 39 years with a consistent strategy of organic innovation and bolt-on acquisitions. Capital allocation has historically been reasonable. The main question is succession planning and whether the culture survives a leadership transition.
The shift toward minimally invasive procedures, aging demographics in developed markets, and increasing healthcare utilization in emerging markets support long-term demand for Merit products. However, hospital budget scrutiny and group purchasing pressure remain headwinds.
At roughly 31.8x TTM earnings and 20.3x forward earnings, the stock is not obviously cheap but also not egregiously expensive for a mid-single-digit grower with a history of positive free cash flow. The three-scenario model suggests the base case offers limited upside, while the bullish case requires execution above consensus.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| MMSI price | $73.44 close on July 10, 2026 | MarketBeat and Yahoo Finance quote snapshots | July 12, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $4.38 billion, verified as $73.44 x 59,655,000 shares | financial_rigor.py market cap verification and MarketBeat | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | $1.54 billion | Yahoo Finance and MarketBeat | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM net income | $128.49 million (MarketBeat) / $139.34 million (Yahoo) | MarketBeat and Yahoo Finance; discrepancy may reflect different non-GAAP adjustments | July 12, 2026 |
| Cash and cash equivalents | $488.08 million (most recent quarter) | Yahoo Finance key statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Total debt / equity | 0.45 (MarketBeat) / 50.50% (Yahoo) | MarketBeat and Yahoo Finance | July 12, 2026 |
| Levered free cash flow (TTM) | $178.19 million | Yahoo Finance cash flow statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Valuation math | 31.79x TTM PE, 20.29x forward PE, 2.75x P/B, 12.49x P/FCF, 2.28 PEG | financial_rigor.py valuation verification and MarketBeat | July 12, 2026 |
| 52-week range | $59.74 to $94.75 | MarketBeat | July 12, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Moderate Buy (8 Buy, 2 Hold, 1 Sell); average target $92.80, range $74-$107 | MarketBeat analyst ratings | July 12, 2026 |
| Short interest | 5.73% of float, 3.42 days to cover | MarketBeat short interest data | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 FY2026 earnings | EPS $0.94 vs $0.84 consensus (beat by $0.10); revenue up 7.4% YoY | MarketBeat earnings recap | July 12, 2026 |
This MMSI AI stock analysis is an informational tool for research and education only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future performance. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available data as of July 12, 2026 and can be wrong.
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