Methanex Corporation research snapshot
MEOH AI stock analysis as of the August 4, 2026 data cutoff reads Methanex Corporation as a commodity methanol producer in a strong cyclical up-cycle driven by elevated methanol prices after the Middle East conflict disrupted an estimated 15 to 20 million tonnes of annualized supply that normally transits the Strait of Hormuz. The stock traded at $54.43 on August 3, 2026 at 1:29 PM EDT, down $1.12 or 2.02% from the $55.55 July 31 close, within a session range of $52.73 to $54.96, carrying a reported market capitalization near $4.30 billion, which is consistent with $55.55 times 77.36 million shares outstanding. The Q2 2026 report, released July 28, 2026, was a record: net income attributable to Methanex shareholders of $198 million or $2.45 diluted EPS versus a $14 million net loss in Q1 2026, adjusted EBITDA of $577 million versus $220 million in Q1 2026, adjusted net income of $300 million or $3.87 per share versus $0.30 in Q1 2026, and an average realized price of $529 per tonne versus $351 per tonne in Q1 2026, supported by record North American production of 1.6 million tonnes including a record 1,027,000 tonnes at Geismar. Cash flows from operating activities reached $439 million in the quarter, the company repaid the remaining $290 million of the Term Loan A facility, and it ended the quarter with $383 million of cash plus a $400 million unutilized revolving credit facility. Management guided Q3 2026 average realized prices to approximately $460 to $485 per tonne, which implies lower adjusted EBITDA in Q3, while holding 2026 equity production guidance near 9 million tonnes. TTM revenue is about $4.27 billion with TTM net income near $88 million, TTM operating cash flow near $995 million, and TTM free cash flow near $936 million. The stock trades at roughly 47.6x trailing earnings and 7.1x forward earnings, with an analyst consensus of Buy and an average price target of $70.00 across 10 analysts. This page is an information tool, not investment advice.
Current price
$54.43 at the August 3, 2026, 1:29 PM EDT reading, down $1.12 or 2.02% from the $55.55 July 31 close, within a session range of $52.73 to $54.96
Market cap
$4.30 billion reported, consistent with $55.55 times 77.36 million shares; about $4.21 billion at the $54.43 intraday reading
AI score
58 / 100
Rating
Cyclical up-cycle with record cash generation and deleveraging, but a large share of the methanol price recovery is already in the price
Trend status
Up about 63% over the trailing 52 weeks from the $32.00 low, above the 200-day moving average near $49.61 and just below the 50-day average near $54.38, with 14-day RSI near 51 signaling neutral momentum
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Methanex is the world's largest methanol producer and supplier with production, logistics, and storage assets across North America, South America, Europe, Asia Pacific, and the Middle East. Q2 2026 delivered record results because of elevated methanol pricing after Middle East supply disruptions, but revenue remains tied to methanol, a global commodity. | High for Q2 2026, medium for durability |
| Moat | The moat comes from global scale, integrated supply chain, the dedicated ocean tanker fleet through Waterfront Shipping, multi-region production that enables gas-cost arbitrage, and the low-cost North American assets acquired from OCI. Methanol is still a commodity with limited pricing power and no meaningful switching costs, so the moat is real but not wide. | Medium |
| Management | CEO Rich Sumner has been with Methanex since 2004 and leads a deep team including CFO Dean Richardson. Management repaid the remaining $290 million of Term Loan A in Q2 2026, idled the uneconomic Titan plant in Trinidad, is on track for $30 million of hard OCI synergies, and is considering modest share repurchases as it nears a 3x leverage target. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Q2 2026 marked a sharp inflection: net income of $198 million and adjusted EBITDA of $577 million versus a $14 million net loss and $220 million adjusted EBITDA in Q1 2026. TTM revenue is about $4.27 billion, TTM operating cash flow about $995 million, and TTM free cash flow about $936 million, while TTM net income near $88 million still reflects the weak first half of the year. | High |
| Valuation | At $54.43, the stock trades at roughly 47.6x trailing earnings, 1.01x sales, 1.49x book, 4.6x free cash flow, and 7.1x forward earnings, with EV/EBITDA near 6.5. On 2026 consensus EPS of $9.12 the forward multiple is about 6x, but consensus EPS falls to $5.64 in 2027, so the valuation is only cheap if elevated methanol prices persist. | Medium |
| Technical trend | The stock is up about 63% over 52 weeks, above the 200-day moving average near $49.61, just below the 50-day average near $54.38, with 14-day RSI near 51 on StockAnalysis.com and 51.87 on Barchart, and 14-day ADX near 18.9 signaling a consolidating rather than strongly trending market. | Medium |
| Risk level | Main risks are methanol price normalization if the Middle East conflict resolves, an estimated 15 to 20 million tonnes of annualized supply resuming, gas availability in Chile, New Zealand, Egypt, and Trinidad, a $30 million to $40 million quarterly shipping cost headwind, high leverage with $3,133 million of total debt, an Altman Z-score near 1.94, and a possible securities offering after the July 29, 2026 registration statement filings. | High |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because company filings and market data align across sources. Forecast confidence is lower because earnings depend on the trajectory of the Middle East conflict, methanol prices, shipping costs, and global supply-demand balance. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | MEOH is a deep cyclical commodity play currently at a strong point in the cycle. Upside depends on whether elevated methanol prices persist and whether management keeps deleveraging. Investment certainty is medium-low despite record reported results because the earnings level is not expected to be durable. | Medium-low |
MEOH AI stock forecast
The MEOH AI stock forecast uses the $54.43 price reference, the 2026 consensus adjusted EPS of $9.12, the 2027 consensus EPS of $5.64, and three-year scenario math. A scenario framework produces a bearish area near $36 to $46 if methanol prices normalize, a base area near $60 to $72 aligning with the $70.00 analyst consensus target, and a bullish area near $78 to $95 if supply tightness persists. The wide spread reflects a commodity business where earnings can swing sharply with methanol prices and the geopolitical situation.
$78 to $95
More likely if the Middle East conflict keeps 15 to 20 million tonnes of annualized supply off the market through 2027, methanol prices stay near or above current postings, the company sustains record North American production, shipping costs normalize, and investors apply an 8-10x multiple to sustained earnings power in the $9-10 range.
$60 to $72
More likely if methanol prices settle closer to the Q3 guidance range of $460 to $485 per tonne, the company keeps deleveraging toward a 2 to 2.5x mid-cycle target, OCI synergies flow through, and investors apply a 10-12x multiple to mid-cycle earnings near $6-7. This aligns with the analyst consensus target near $70.
$36 to $46
More likely if the conflict resolves, Middle East supply returns quickly, methanol prices fall toward historical cost curves, Q3 and Q4 realized prices decline further, shipping costs stay elevated, and investors apply a low single-digit multiple to sharply reduced or cyclically weak earnings.
MEOH AI technical analysis
MEOH AI technical analysis shows a stock that has rallied about 63% over 52 weeks and is now consolidating as of the August 4, 2026 cutoff. Market data lists an August 3, 2026, 1:29 PM EDT reading of $54.43, a 52-week range of $32.00 to $66.75, a 50-day moving average near $54.38, a 200-day moving average near $49.61, and 14-day RSI near 51 on StockAnalysis.com and 51.87 on Barchart, with 14-day ADX near 18.9 and 14-day historical volatility near 34.8%.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $54.43 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote at the August 3, 2026, 1:29 PM EDT reading, down $1.12 or 2.02% from the $55.55 July 31 close within a session range of $52.73 to $54.96. |
| Immediate support | $52.70 to $53.30 | This area combines the August 3 session low near $52.73 and the 20-day moving average near $53.31 reported by Barchart. |
| Deeper support | $49.50 to $50.50 | The 200-day moving average is near $49.61 and the $50 psychological level sits just above it, forming a natural deeper support zone. |
| Near resistance | $56 to $58 | The 100-day moving average is near $57.02 on Barchart and the late-July trading range caps near $57 to $58. |
| Major resistance | $62 to $67 | This zone brackets the recent highs and the 52-week high near $66.75. A break above $67 would be a strong bullish signal. |
| Moving averages | 5-day $54.60, 20-day $53.31, 50-day $54.38, 100-day $57.02, 200-day $49.61 | Barchart reported these levels on August 3, 2026. The price sits just below the 5-day and 50-day averages and above the 20-day and 200-day averages, with the 100-day average overhead. |
| Momentum | Neutral, 14-day RSI near 51 | 14-day RSI near 50.55 on StockAnalysis.com and 51.87 on Barchart indicates neutral momentum after the strong 52-week run, neither overbought nor oversold. |
| Volume | 20-day average volume near 1.08 million shares | StockAnalysis.com reports 20-day average volume near 1,081,964 while Barchart reports 1,123,642. The stock traded below that average on August 3, so a breakout would need stronger participation. |
| Volatility | 14-day historical volatility near 34.8% | Barchart reports 14-day historical volatility near 34.8% and a 14-day ATR near $2.19, reflecting elevated commodity-driven swings and war-risk pricing. |
| Invalidation | Close below $49.50, then below $46 | A close below the $200-day zone near $49.50 would weaken the long-term uptrend. A further close below $46 would argue the cyclical peak has passed. |
MEOH AI trading strategy
The MEOH AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It connects price behavior with methanol posted prices, the Middle East conflict, global supply-demand balance, natural gas availability, shipping costs, production volumes, free cash flow, debt levels, and analyst rating changes.
Watch for MEOH to clear the $57 to $58 resistance zone on strong volume while Q3 results confirm realized prices near or above the $460 to $485 guidance range and management keeps lowering leverage.
A failed breakout followed by a close below the 20-day moving average near $53.30 should reduce trend confidence, especially if methanol spot prices fall or if shipping costs rise further.
If MEOH pulls back toward the $49.50 to $50.50 zone without a structural deterioration in the methanol market, compare the lower price with the 2026 consensus EPS of $9.12, the roughly 6x forward multiple, book value near $33, and free cash flow yield near 22%.
Do not treat a lower price as automatically attractive if the pullback is driven by a conflict resolution, a resumption of Middle East supply, or sharply falling methanol prices.
Track methanol benchmark prices and Methanex posted prices, the status of the Middle East conflict and Strait of Hormuz shipping, Chinese MTO operating rates, natural gas availability in Chile, New Zealand, Egypt, and Trinidad, quarterly production and sales volumes, shipping and bunker costs, operating cash flow, debt levels, and progress toward the 3x then 2 to 2.5x leverage targets.
Position sizing should reflect that MEOH is a cyclical commodity producer whose current earnings power depends on a geopolitical supply shock that can reverse quickly, not a stable compounder.
Investment research summary
Chemical customers and fuel markets pay Methanex to produce and deliver methanol, a basic chemical building block used in formaldehyde, acetic acid, MTO, marine fuel, fuel blending, and hundreds of other applications. In Q2 2026 the company generated $1,395 million in revenue from global methanol sales at an average realized price of $529 per tonne.
The moat comes from being the world's largest methanol producer with global scale, an integrated supply chain, a dedicated ocean tanker fleet through Waterfront Shipping, multi-region production that allows gas-cost arbitrage, and the low-cost North American assets acquired from OCI. It is not a wide moat because methanol is a price-taker commodity with limited product differentiation and switching costs.
The thesis fails if the Middle East conflict is resolved and the estimated 15 to 20 million tonnes of annualized supply returns to the market, if methanol prices fall toward cost curves and Q3 realized prices land below guidance, if natural gas availability deteriorates in Chile, New Zealand, Egypt, or Trinidad, if shipping costs stay elevated at $30 million to $40 million per quarter, or if the July 29, 2026 registration statement leads to dilutive issuance while the stock trades at a high trailing multiple.
CEO Rich Sumner has been with Methanex since 2004 and leads a team with decades of industry tenure, including CFO Dean Richardson. Key recent decisions include repaying the remaining $290 million of Term Loan A in Q2 2026, indefinitely idling the uneconomic Titan plant in Trinidad with a $115 million non-cash impairment, completing the OCI acquisition integration on track for $30 million of hard synergies, and preparing to direct a modest amount of free cash flow toward share repurchases.
The methanol industry is in a geopolitical supply shock: an estimated 15 to 20 million tonnes of annualized supply that normally transits the Strait of Hormuz is disrupted, inventories have been drawn down, and Chinese MTO demand has been rationalized. Longer term, methanol demand benefits from MTO, marine fuel, and hydrogen-carrier applications, but new supply from China and the Middle East and the low-carbon transition remain structural forces.
At $54.43 with a forward P/E near 7x on consensus and about 6x on the elevated 2026 EPS estimate of $9.12, the stock prices in continued elevated methanol pricing. Margin of safety is thin because consensus EPS steps down to $5.64 in 2027 and the stock is up about 63% over 52 weeks. Debt of $3,133 million and net debt near $2.75 billion mean the balance sheet is still leveraged even as management deleverages with strong free cash flow.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| MEOH quote reference | $54.43 at the August 3, 2026, 1:29 PM EDT reading, down $1.12 or 2.02% from the $55.55 July 31 close, within a session range of $52.73 to $54.96 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote | August 4, 2026 |
| Market cap and shares outstanding | $4.30 billion reported market cap on 77.36 million shares; consistent with $55.55 times 77.36 million shares = about $4.30 billion | StockAnalysis.com quote and statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Market cap verification | Calculated: 77.36M shares x $54.43 = $4.21B; reported: $4.30B; deviation: 2.08% (pass) | Financial rigor tool verify-market-cap, Python decimal calculation | August 4, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 results | Net income attributable to shareholders $198M or $2.45 diluted EPS; adjusted EBITDA $577M; adjusted net income $300M or $3.87 per share; revenue $1,395M | Methanex Q2 2026 earnings release, July 28, 2026 (GlobeNewswire) | July 28, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 production and pricing | Production 2,213,000 tonnes with record North American output of 1.6 million tonnes including 1,027,000 tonnes at Geismar; average realized price $529 per tonne versus $351 in Q1 2026; methanol sales volume 2,555,000 tonnes | Methanex Q2 2026 earnings release and Q2 2026 earnings call transcript | July 29, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 cash flow and deleveraging | Cash flows from operating activities $439M; adjusted free cash flow $298M; repaid the remaining $290M of Term Loan A; ended the quarter with $383M cash and a $400M unutilized revolving credit facility | Methanex Q2 2026 earnings release and Q2 2026 earnings call | July 29, 2026 |
| Q3 2026 guidance | Average realized price expected near $460 to $485 per tonne for July and August; lower adjusted EBITDA expected in Q3; 2026 equity production guidance maintained near 9.0 million tonnes | Methanex Q2 2026 earnings release and Q2 2026 earnings call | July 28, 2026 |
| TTM financials | Revenue $4,265M, net income $88.38M, EPS near $1.03 to $1.14, operating cash flow $995.04M, capital expenditures $58.74M, free cash flow $936.29M, EBITDA near $1.13B | StockAnalysis.com financials and statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Balance sheet June 30, 2026 | Cash and equivalents $382.91M; total debt $3,133M; net debt about $2.75B or $35.55 per share; total assets $7,177M; common shareholders equity $2,566M; book value per share near $33 | StockAnalysis.com balance sheet | August 4, 2026 |
| Valuation multiples | PE 47.59, forward PE 7.11, P/S 1.01, P/B 1.49, P/FCF 4.59, EV/EBITDA 6.52, EV/Sales 1.73, EV/FCF 7.90 | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Forward valuation basis | 2026 consensus adjusted EPS $9.12 implies a forward multiple near 5.97x at $54.43; 2027 consensus EPS $5.64; the statistics page forward PE of 7.11 implies forward EPS near $7.66 | StockAnalysis.com forecast financial forecast | July 31, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy rating from 10 analysts; average price target $70.00, median $70.50, range $55 to $80 | StockAnalysis.com forecast and analyst ratings | July 31, 2026 |
| Recent analyst rating actions | UBS Buy with target raised to $71 from $70 on July 31, 2026; CIBC upgraded to Buy/Outperform at $71 on July 30, 2026; JPMorgan Hold with target cut to $55 from $65 on July 30, 2026; BMO Buy at $75 on July 30, 2026; RBC Hold at $65 on July 30, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com forecast latest forecasts | July 31, 2026 |
| Rating mix July 2026 | 5 Strong Buy, 2 Buy, 3 Hold, 0 Sell out of 10 analysts | StockAnalysis.com forecast recommendation trends | July 31, 2026 |
| FY2026 and FY2027 consensus estimates | FY2026 revenue estimate $4.91B with adjusted EPS $9.12; FY2027 revenue estimate $4.01B with adjusted EPS $5.64 | StockAnalysis.com forecast financial forecast | July 31, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 5-day SMA near $54.60, 20-day SMA near $53.31, 50-day SMA near $54.38, 100-day SMA near $57.02, 200-day SMA near $49.61, 14-day RSI near 51.87, 14-day ADX near 18.89, 14-day historical volatility near 34.8% | Barchart technical analysis | August 4, 2026 |
| Stock price statistics | 52-week range $32.00 to $66.75; 52-week price change +62.76%; beta 0.87; 50-day MA near $54.37; 200-day MA near $49.61; RSI near 50.55; 20-day average volume near 1,081,964 | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Short interest | 1.57 million shares short, 2.02% of shares outstanding, about 1.47 days to cover | StockAnalysis.com statistics short selling | August 4, 2026 |
| Dividend | Quarterly dividend of $0.185 per share, annualized $0.74 with a 1.36% yield, ex-dividend date September 16, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com overview and dividend history | August 4, 2026 |
| Registration statement filings | Methanex filed two registration statements on July 29, 2026 relating to a securities offering, per the StockAnalysis.com filings feed | StockAnalysis.com filings feed | July 29, 2026 |
| Executive leadership | CEO Richard W. Sumner (President, CEO, Director); CFO Dean Richardson (SVP Finance); SVP Corporate Development Kevin M. Maloney; SVP Global Marketing and Logistics Karine Delbarre; SVP Manufacturing Gustavo Parra; VP Investor Relations Robert B. Winslow; approximately 1,649 employees | StockAnalysis.com company profile | July 31, 2026 |
| GuruFocus value reference | GuruFocus GF Value near $42.37 against a price near $54.81 as of July 22, 2026, implying the stock was about 25.4% overvalued on that framework before the recent range | GuruFocus article via StockAnalysis.com news feed | July 22, 2026 |
This MEOH AI stock analysis is for informational and educational use only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of returns. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available public data as of the stated cutoff date and can be wrong if the Middle East conflict, methanol prices, gas availability, shipping costs, global supply-demand, company operations, valuation multiples, or market conditions change.
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