ArcelorMittal S.A. research snapshot
MT AI stock analysis currently views ArcelorMittal as a global integrated steel and mining company whose scale, plants, mines, customer relationships, and logistics support its position across Europe, North America, Brazil, India, and other markets. At the July 11, 2026 data cutoff, the latest independently sourced NYSE close was $62.96 on July 9, with reported market capitalization of $47.44 billion. The AI score reflects an investment-grade balance sheet, strategic growth projects, and a technical price above the 200-day average, while the MT AI stock forecast remains scenario-based because steel spreads, trade policy, energy costs, Chinese exports, capital spending, and the economic cycle can change earnings quickly. This page is for informational research only and is not investment advice.
Current price
$62.96 NYSE close on July 9, 2026
Market cap
$47.44 billion reported market capitalization
AI score
60 / 100
Rating
Globally scaled steel and mining operator with improving strategic assets, balanced against cyclical earnings and a price that already reflects a recovery case
Trend status
Neutral near the 50-day average and above the 200-day average, with cycle-sensitive volatility
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 11, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | ArcelorMittal sells flat and long steel, tubular products, iron ore, and related solutions to automotive, construction, infrastructure, energy, appliance, and industrial customers. Earnings are tied to volumes, spreads, and capacity utilization rather than recurring subscription revenue. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from global scale, integrated mines and mills, technical steel grades, customer qualification, logistics, procurement, and difficult-to-replicate industrial assets. It improves resilience but does not give the company control over the steel cycle. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO Aditya Mittal and the board are tested by safety, capital allocation, buybacks, debt discipline, decarbonization spending, and delivery of the strategic investment program. The significant shareholder held 44.6% of issued shares before treasury shares in March 2026, so governance and minority-holder alignment merit attention. | Medium |
| Financial trend | FY2025 sales were $61.352 billion, down 1.74%, while attributable net income was $3.152 billion and adjusted EPS was $3.85. In 1Q2026, sales were $15.457 billion, EBITDA was $1.679 billion, and attributable net income was $575 million. | High |
| Valuation | Using the July 9 close of $62.96, FY2025 EPS of $4.13, book value per share of $75.86, FY2025 free cash flow per share of $3.38, and a $0.60 annual dividend, financial_rigor.py calculates 15.24x earnings, 0.83x book value, 18.63x free cash flow, and a 0.95% dividend yield. | High for math; medium for normalized earnings |
| Technical trend | The July 9 close was below the 50-day average of $63.87 and above the 200-day average of $52.63. RSI was 48.00, which is neutral rather than a standalone trend signal. | Medium |
| Risk level | Main risks include steel-price and demand declines, Chinese exports, energy and raw-material costs, tariffs and trade policy, European decarbonization costs, operating disruptions, high capex, leverage through the cycle, and weak returns from acquisitions or growth projects. | High |
| AI confidence | Historical disclosures and reproducible calculations are well documented. Forecast confidence is lower because AI cannot know future steel spreads, volumes, energy costs, policy, or investor risk appetite. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | MT is not a certainty-priced defensive compounder. A margin of safety should be based on conservative mid-cycle earnings, net debt, capex, and trade-policy assumptions, not only a below-book-value ratio. | Medium-low |
MT AI stock forecast
The MT AI stock forecast starts with the $62.96 July 9, 2026 close and FY2025 basic EPS of $4.13. A three-year mechanical model using 6%, 3%, and negative 8% EPS growth with 12x, 9x, and 6x terminal multiples produced about $59.00, $40.60, and $19.30 per share. These are scenario illustrations before dividends, not targets. They show that the current price needs a stronger earnings base or a higher multiple than the FY2025 model assumptions.
About $55 to $65 before dividends
More likely if steel spreads and volumes improve, European trade measures support utilization, North American operations remain normalized, strategic projects add EBITDA, debt stays controlled, and investors accept a low-teens earnings multiple.
About $35 to $45 before dividends
More likely if earnings compound only modestly from the FY2025 base, spreads normalize, capex stays elevated, and the market applies a single-digit cyclical multiple.
About $15 to $25 before dividends
More likely if global demand weakens, Chinese exports pressure prices, energy or raw-material costs rise, policy support disappoints, capex consumes cash, and the market discounts earnings at a low cyclical multiple.
MT AI technical analysis
MT AI technical analysis uses the latest NYSE reference available at the July 11, 2026 cutoff: a $62.96 close on July 9. The 50-day moving average was $63.87, the 200-day moving average was $52.63, RSI was 48.00, and the 20-day average volume was 1.82 million shares. These static inputs can become stale, so verify a live chart before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $62.96 on July 9, 2026 | StockAnalysis listed this NYSE regular-session close. It is the price used in the market-cap and valuation checks. |
| Support reference | 200-day average near $52.63 | This is a trend reference, not a guaranteed floor. Confirm recent swing lows and volume on a current daily chart. |
| Resistance reference | 50-day average near $63.87 | The latest close was slightly below this average. A sustained move above it needs price and volume confirmation. |
| Moving averages | 50-day $63.87; 200-day $52.63 | Price remained above the 200-day average but below the 50-day average at the stated cutoff, a mixed intermediate setup. |
| Momentum | RSI 48.00 | This is neutral. Use it with price structure, steel pricing, and company results rather than as a reversal signal by itself. |
| Volume | 20-day average about 1.82 million shares | Compare any breakout or breakdown with current average volume before treating it as confirmed. |
| Volatility | Five-year beta 1.74 | Steel spreads, tariffs, energy costs, macro data, and company releases can reprice MT sharply. |
| Invalidation | A close below refreshed support with weaker fundamentals | This is a monitoring condition, not a personalized stop. Refresh the chart and thesis inputs before taking risk. |
MT AI trading strategy
The MT AI trading strategy is a general monitoring framework, not personalized investment advice. It combines price structure with steel spreads, apparent steel demand, Chinese exports, European and U.S. trade measures, energy and raw-material costs, shipments, EBITDA per tonne, net debt, capex, and shareholder-return disclosures.
Use a trend setup only after a refreshed resistance break holds with volume and steel spreads, shipments, and management commentary remain supportive.
A failed breakout or close below a current support zone warrants reassessment, particularly if spreads weaken, volumes fall, or policy and cost inputs deteriorate.
If MT retraces, compare the revised price with conservative mid-cycle earnings, net debt, maintenance and strategic capex, and the durability of customer demand rather than buying solely because the stock trades below book value.
Do not assume every decline is value if the steel cycle, trade environment, or returns on strategic projects worsen.
Track steel shipments, average selling prices, EBITDA per tonne, mining output, cash flow, net debt, capex, dividends, buybacks, safety, Europe utilization, North America operations, and trade-policy changes.
Use position sizing that recognizes a global steel producer can move rapidly with macroeconomic and commodity inputs.
Investment research summary
Customers pay ArcelorMittal for steel and iron ore that meet volume, quality, reliability, and technical requirements across manufacturing and infrastructure supply chains. Integrated mines, plants, processing, and logistics convert industrial assets into cycle-dependent cash flow.
ArcelorMittal has scale, an integrated asset base, engineering capability, customer specifications, procurement reach, and long-lived industrial infrastructure. Those advantages can improve cost and supply resilience, but cannot eliminate global overcapacity or commodity-like pricing.
The thesis can fail through recession, steel oversupply, Chinese exports, price and volume declines, energy or carbon costs, tariffs that do not protect realized spreads, operational accidents, capex overruns, debt growth, weak acquisitions, or decarbonization projects that earn below their cost of capital.
Management must protect safety and balance-sheet flexibility while allocating cash among maintenance, strategic growth, decarbonization, dividends, buybacks, and acquisitions. The enduring test is whether capital discipline remains intact when the cycle weakens.
Steel remains essential to infrastructure, vehicles, energy equipment, and construction. Electrification and lower-carbon steel can create demand and product-mix opportunities, but they also require heavy investment and remain exposed to global trade and industrial cycles.
At $62.96, the market price is below stated book value but above the mechanical three-year outputs based on FY2025 EPS and conservative cyclical multiples. Margin of safety needs a normalized earnings and cash-flow view that includes debt, capex, and downside spreads.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYSE price and market-cap verification | $62.96 July 9 close x 761 million shares = $47.91 billion, versus $47.44 billion reported, a 1.00% variance. | StockAnalysis MT statistics | July 11, 2026 |
| FY2025 sales revenue | $61.352 billion. ArcelorMittal and Macrotrends both report this value, with no cross-source variance. | ArcelorMittal FY2025 results | July 11, 2026 |
| FY2025 attributable net income | $3.152 billion. ArcelorMittal and StockAnalysis report the same attributable-net-income figure. | ArcelorMittal FY2025 results | July 11, 2026 |
| FY2025 cash and debt | $5.476 billion cash and cash equivalents, $13.410 billion gross debt, and $7.931 billion net debt at year end. The cash figure agrees with StockAnalysis. | ArcelorMittal FY2025 results | July 11, 2026 |
| 1Q2026 operations and balance sheet | $15.457 billion sales, $1.679 billion EBITDA, $575 million attributable net income, 12.8 Mt steel shipments, $1.341 billion free cash outflow, and $9.311 billion net debt. | ArcelorMittal 1Q2026 earnings release | July 11, 2026 |
| Strategic projects and capital returns | The company cited $1.8 billion potential incremental EBITDA from strategic capex projects including completed M&A and proposed a $0.60 per-share FY2026 annual dividend. | ArcelorMittal latest results | July 11, 2026 |
This page is an informational research tool, not investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell securities. Forecast ranges are scenario illustrations based on available data and may be wrong. Verify primary sources and consider independent professional advice before making an investment decision.
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