Westlake Corporation research snapshot
WLK AI stock analysis as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff reads Westlake Corporation as a high-risk cyclical recovery trading near book value. The stock closed at $70.50 on July 31, 2026, with a market capitalization near $9.03 billion, re-verified during this full refresh as $70.50 times 128.12 million shares outstanding, matching the StockAnalysis.com quote and statistics pages. Trailing twelve-month revenue was $10.98 billion with a net loss of $1.64 billion, after FY2025 revenue of $11.17 billion and a $1.51 billion net loss attributable to the company. Q1 2026 net sales were $2.65 billion with a $169 million net loss, or $0.77 per share excluding identified items, and management says the March 2026 Strait of Hormuz closure steepened the global cost curve and should support Performance and Essential Materials margins through at least the summer of 2026. Q2 2026 results were scheduled for August 4, 2026 and were not yet released at this cutoff. The upside case depends on PVC and polyethylene pricing, cost savings, and infrastructure demand; the main risks are a delayed housing recovery, negative free cash flow, debt, and litigation. This page uses scenarios and explicit risk controls rather than a certain stock price prediction, and is for informational use only.
Current price
$70.50 at the July 31, 2026 close
Market cap
$9.03 billion verified market capitalization
AI score
45 / 100
Rating
High-risk cyclical recovery trading near book value with negative cash flow
Trend status
Bearish intermediate trend: price below the 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, with RSI near 26
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Westlake combines a housing and infrastructure products segment that is profitable with a much more cyclical performance and essential materials segment that is loss-making. The business is asset-backed and useful, but consolidated economics are weak. | High |
| Moat | The main advantages are vertical integration, scale, product breadth, logistics, customer relationships, and the downstream use of PVC in building products. Commodity chemicals remain price competitive and can be oversupplied, so the moat is operational rather than brand-driven. | Medium |
| Management | CEO Jean-Marc Gilson is executing a three-pillar profitability plan with a targeted $600 million EBITDA uplift, closing high-cost epoxy, chlorovinyl, and styrene capacity, settling a $67 million PVC pipe litigation, and completing the Wilhelmshaven PVC and VCM acquisition in June 2026. The key test is return on capital through the cycle. | Medium |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue declined 8.0% to $11.17 billion with a $1.51 billion net loss attributable to the company, TTM revenue is $10.98 billion with a $1.64 billion net loss, TTM free cash flow is negative $508 million, and Q1 2026 remained loss-making despite sequential PEM improvement and management margin guidance for summer 2026. | High |
| Valuation | At $70.50, the stock is about 1.06x book value, 0.82x sales, and 3.01% dividend yield. A forward earnings reference near 22x uses the $3.18 FY2026 adjusted EPS consensus, while the statistics page lists 15.98x forward PE on a different forward estimate basis, and TTM free cash flow yield is negative 5.62%. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | WLK closed below the 5-day average near $71.79, the 20-day near $75.00, the 50-day near $79.89, the 100-day near $94.89, and the 200-day near $87.27. RSI near 26 and 14-day ADX near 30 with negative directional index above positive directional index confirmed a downtrend. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is high because chemicals are cyclical, the company carries material debt, TTM free cash flow is negative, Q1 2026 included a $67 million PVC pipe litigation settlement, and feedstock, energy, trade, environmental, and housing demand conditions can move margins quickly. | High |
| AI confidence | High for reported facts and exact calculations, medium for technical timing and forward scenarios. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Low to medium certainty. The data supports a recovery-monitoring framework, not a universal buy or sell label. | Low-medium |
WLK AI stock forecast
The WLK AI stock forecast uses the StockAnalysis FY2026 adjusted EPS consensus of $3.18 as an explicit, non-GAAP starting input. The audited three-year scenario calculation produced reference values near $101.6 for the bullish case, $66.1 for the base case, and $32.7 for the bearish case. These are model outputs before dividends and are not promises about future prices.
$90 to $112
More likely if the Hormuz-driven cost-curve steepening sustains PVC and polyethylene pricing through summer 2026 and beyond, the cost-savings plan delivers the targeted $600 million EBITDA uplift, PEM margins normalize, HIP infrastructure and data center demand holds, and analysts raise forward estimates.
$58 to $75
More likely if PVC and polyethylene pricing partially fades after the supply shock, cost savings narrow PEM losses but do not normalize them, HIP remains constrained by housing affordability and interest rates, free cash flow turns positive gradually, and investors value the stock near book value with a cautious mid-cycle multiple.
$25 to $40
More likely if chemical spreads collapse again, the housing recovery stays delayed, feedstock and energy costs rise, cost savings are delayed, cash flow stays negative, debt or litigation costs rise, or a further impairment reduces book value and forces a lower multiple on reduced normalized earnings.
WLK AI technical analysis
WLK AI technical analysis is bearish as of the August 3, 2026 cutoff. The July 31, 2026 close was $70.50, below the 5-day average near $71.79, the 20-day near $75.00, the 50-day near $79.89, the 100-day near $94.89, and the 200-day near $87.27. RSI was 26.08 near oversold territory, and 14-day ADX near 30 with the negative directional index well above the positive directional index confirmed a downtrend. Average 20-day volume was about 1.02 million shares and the 52-week range was $56.33 to $124.23. These are reference zones, not trade instructions.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $70.50 | StockAnalysis reported the July 31, 2026 market close. The price is below all five major moving averages. |
| Near support | $67 to $70 | The July 31 session low was $68.48, inside this round-number band. A hold would show short-term stabilization, not a confirmed reversal. |
| Deeper support | $56.33 to $60 | The lower end uses the reported 52-week low of $56.33. A test of this area would put the recovery thesis under significant pressure. |
| First resistance | $74 to $76 | The 20-day moving average near $75.00 caps this zone. A reclaim would be the first sign of short-term strength. |
| Second resistance | $79 to $81 | The 50-day moving average near $79.89 sits here. Clearing it would be necessary for a more constructive intermediate chart. |
| Recovery resistance | $85 to $88 | This zone surrounds the 200-day moving average near $87.27 and the level of recent analyst target cuts. It should be treated as a recovery checkpoint, not a technical promise. |
| Moving averages | 5-day $71.79; 20-day $75.00; 50-day $79.89; 100-day $94.89; 200-day $87.27 | The price was below every average at the cutoff, so the intermediate trend remained bearish. |
| Momentum | RSI 26.08, near oversold reference territory | A low RSI can reflect selling pressure or an early stabilization attempt. It does not identify a bottom by itself. |
| Trend strength | ADX 30.32 with -DI 32.85 above +DI 13.84 | Barchart reported 14-day ADX near 30 and a negative directional index well above the positive, consistent with a downtrend. |
| Volume and volatility | About 1.02 million average 20-day shares; 14-day historical volatility near 17.6% | Use participation and price range together. A move above the moving-average zone needs more than a low-volume price bounce. |
| Invalidation | Sustained close below $56.33 | A decisive break below the 52-week low would invalidate the current range-recovery reference and require a fresh review of liquidity, debt, margins, and the operating thesis. |
WLK AI trading strategy
The WLK AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It links price behavior with chemical spreads, housing demand, cost savings, cash flow, debt, and plant reliability. Any use of this framework requires fresh market data and independent risk limits, and the August 4, 2026 Q2 report is the next major catalyst.
Treat a move above the 20-day average near $75 as a first confirmation checkpoint only if it comes with improving volume, narrowing PEM losses, stable HIP margins, and evidence that cost savings are translating into cash earnings. A close above the 50-day average near $79.89 would strengthen the setup.
A failed reclaim followed by a close below $70 weakens the short-term setup. A break below $56.33 invalidates the broader range-recovery reference.
If WLK holds the $67 to $70 area while PVC, polyethylene, chlor-alkali, and epoxy conditions stabilize, compare the price with book value near $66.72 per share, normalized EPS, debt service, and free cash flow before treating weakness as a valuation opportunity.
Do not average down only because RSI is near 26 or the stock is below its moving averages. Recheck cash, debt maturities, capex, dividends, and restructuring cash costs first.
Track PVC and polyethylene prices, the global cost curve, ethane and natural gas costs, PEM EBITDA excluding identified items, HIP sales and margin, operating cash flow, capex, net debt, the dividend, the cost-savings run-rate, and the Wilhelmshaven integration. The August 4, 2026 Q2 report is the immediate test of the margin guidance.
Lower confidence if sales growth depends on price rather than volume, cash flow remains negative after normal seasonality, debt rises, the FY2026 adjusted EPS consensus keeps falling, or management needs additional restructuring actions to reach the recovery case.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Westlake for essential chemical building blocks and finished building products used in housing, infrastructure, packaging, automotive, healthcare, and industrial applications. The economic engine is integrated production, capacity utilization, product pricing, and disciplined asset management.
The moat is operational rather than purely brand-based: vertical integration from ethylene and chlor-alkali into vinyls, polyethylene, epoxy, and building products; scale; logistics; technical know-how; and customer relationships. Commodity chemicals remain exposed to new capacity and price competition, so the moat can narrow in a prolonged downcycle.
The thesis can fail if PVC, PE, chlor-alkali, and epoxy spreads fade after the Hormuz-driven cost curve shock normalizes, if energy and feedstock costs rise, if asset closures create service or reliability problems, if housing and infrastructure demand falls, if debt reduces flexibility, or if a further impairment signals a more permanent loss of earning power.
Jean-Marc Gilson became CEO in 2024 after leading Mitsubishi Chemical and Roquette. Management is executing a three-pillar profitability plan with a targeted $600 million EBITDA uplift, closing high-cost epoxy, chlorovinyl, and styrene capacity, settling a $67 million PVC pipe litigation in Q1 2026, and completing the June 2026 Wilhelmshaven acquisition of about 380,000 metric tons of annual PVC capacity. The capital-allocation test is whether these actions create acceptable returns without weakening liquidity.
Long-term demand for housing, water infrastructure, data centers, packaging, and durable materials supports the category. This is a favorable industrial need but not a straight-line growth market. The March 2026 Strait of Hormuz closure steepened the global cost curve and gave North American producers a temporary pricing benefit. Over a 20-year lens, Westlake is better viewed as a cyclical infrastructure and materials supplier than as a civilization-level technology platform.
The exact valuation check at $70.50 showed 1.06x book value, 0.82x sales, and a 3.01% dividend yield. A forward earnings reference near 22x uses the $3.18 FY2026 adjusted EPS consensus, while TTM free cash flow per share was negative $3.96. The base scenario near $66.10 is below the current quote, so the margin of safety depends on evidence of normalized earnings rather than the headline multiple alone.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| WLK price | $70.50 at the July 31, 2026 market close | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $9.03 billion, computed as $70.50 x 128.12 million shares outstanding; the price-times-shares calculation matched the reported market cap with 0.03% deviation in financial_rigor.py | StockAnalysis.com quote and share statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM income statement | Revenue of $10.98 billion, net loss of $1.64 billion, and loss per share of $12.72 for the trailing twelve months ended March 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com financials | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM revenue and net loss cross-check | $10.976 billion TTM revenue matches $11.170 billion FY2025 minus $2.846 billion Q1 2025 plus $2.652 billion Q1 2026; the $1.637 billion TTM net loss matches the same rolling construction | StockAnalysis.com financials and Q1 2026 results release | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 results | $11.170 billion revenue and $1.508 billion net loss attributable to Westlake Corporation | Westlake 2025 Form 10-K and StockAnalysis.com financials | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 results | $2.652 billion net sales, $169 million net loss attributable to Westlake, $150 million EBITDA, and $235 million EBITDA excluding identified items; Q1 2026 identified items were a $67 million PVC pipe litigation settlement and $18 million of facility shutdown charges | Westlake Q1 2026 results release | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 balance sheet | Cash of $2.271 billion, available-for-sale securities of $205 million, current portion of long-term debt of $496 million, and long-term debt of $5.074 billion, matching SEC EDGAR XBRL (5074000000); total debt carrying value of $5.570 billion and net debt of about $3.09 billion | Westlake Q1 2026 results release and SEC EDGAR XBRL | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2026 consensus | $11.83 billion revenue and $3.18 adjusted EPS consensus across 14 analysts; FY2027 revenue estimate $12.14 billion and EPS $3.39 | StockAnalysis.com forecast | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy with an average target of $96.00 across 15 analysts, low $85 and high $114, median $92 | StockAnalysis.com forecast and analyst ratings | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst rating mix, July 2026 | 4 Strong Buy, 2 Buy, 9 Hold, 0 Sell out of 15 analysts | StockAnalysis.com forecast recommendation trends | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst target updates, July 2026 | Truist to $104 on July 22, Goldman Sachs to $85 on July 16, Citi holding $85 on July 14, BMO Capital to $96 on July 6, and Morgan Stanley to $92 on July 2 | StockAnalysis.com forecast | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 earnings date | August 4, 2026 before market open, after the August 3, 2026 cutoff; Q2 2026 results were not yet reported | StockAnalysis.com and Westlake conference call notice | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 5-day SMA $71.79, 20-day SMA $75.00, 50-day SMA $79.89, 100-day SMA $94.89, 200-day SMA $87.27, RSI 26.08, ADX 30.32 with -DI 32.85 above +DI 13.84, 14-day historical volatility 17.63% | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com technical snapshots | August 3, 2026 |
| Volume, volatility, and range | About 1.02 million average 20-day volume, beta 0.62, and 52-week range $56.33 to $124.23 | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Short interest | 5.28 million shares short, 4.12% of shares outstanding, 4.28 days to cover | StockAnalysis.com statistics short selling | August 3, 2026 |
| Dividend reference | $0.53 quarterly dividend, $2.12 annualized for a 3.01% yield, with an ex-dividend date of May 27, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com dividends and Westlake news release | August 3, 2026 |
| Valuation check | 15.98x forward PE, 0.82x sales, 1.06x book, 1.51x tangible book, 20.16x operating cash flow, and negative free cash flow yield, per the StockAnalysis.com statistics page; the forecast page lists a forward PE near 22x on the $3.18 FY2026 adjusted EPS basis | StockAnalysis.com statistics and forecast | August 3, 2026 |
| Wilhelmshaven acquisition | Westlake completed the acquisition of a German PVC and VCM site with stated capacity of about 380,000 metric tons of PVC per year in June 2026 | Westlake and Business Wire investor release | August 3, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo conference commentary, June 2026 | Management cited Middle East disruptions raising global feedstock costs, benefiting North American producers and supporting PVC and polyethylene price increases, with structural cost savings and plant closures improving profitability and free cash flow expected to strengthen as supply-demand tightens | Westlake transcript at StockAnalysis.com | August 3, 2026 |
This WLK AI stock analysis is an informational research tool, not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of returns. Forecast ranges are scenario outputs based on available data and stated assumptions as of the August 3, 2026 cutoff, and they can be wrong. Verify prices, filings, earnings, debt, taxes, dividends, and technical indicators independently before making any investment or trading decision.
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