Medline Inc. research snapshot
MDLN AI stock analysis as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff reads Medline Inc. as a large medical-surgical products and healthcare supply-chain platform with durable customer infrastructure, but with margin, quality, fire, and legal overhangs. The stock closed at $39.28 on July 31, 2026 with a market capitalization near $51.60 billion, re-verified as $39.28 times 1.3136 billion economic-interest shares with a 0.00% deviation. The Q1 2026 report, released May 6, 2026, delivered net sales of $7.352 billion up 10.7% with organic sales growth of 10.1%, but net income fell 25.8% to $239 million, adjusted EBITDA fell 10.6% to $776 million, and GAAP diluted EPS was $0.16 with adjusted diluted EPS of $0.33, reflecting tariff-related cost inflation, higher operating spending for new customer growth, and an IPO-related employee bonus. Management raised full-year 2026 organic sales guidance to 8.5% to 9.5% from 8% to 9% and held adjusted EBITDA guidance at $3.5 billion to $3.6 billion. Offsetting the growth story are margin compression, two FDA warning letters in two months, a June fire that destroyed the Tracy, California distribution center, a securities investigation opened in July 2026, roughly $10.3 billion of net debt on the March 28, 2026 balance sheet, a stock that trades near 34x trailing earnings and 25.5x forward earnings, and analyst price targets from $40 to $62. The page presents a scenario framework, not a certain price prediction, and is for information only.
Current price
$39.28
Market cap
$51.60 billion
AI score
58 / 100
Rating
Growing distributor with margin, quality, and leverage pressure
Trend status
Neutral range between the 50-day and 100-day moving averages
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Medline is the largest provider of medical-surgical products and supply chain solutions serving all points of care, with TTM revenue near $29.14 billion across Front Line Care, Surgical Solutions, Laboratory and Diagnostics, and Supply Chain Solutions. | Medium-high |
| Moat | Scale, regulated logistics, customer workflow integration, manufacturing, distribution density, and long healthcare-provider relationships create practical barriers, although contracts and pricing remain competitive and FDA quality actions raise execution risk. | Medium-high |
| Management | Jim Boyle runs a growth and execution agenda with visible top-line results: Q1 2026 net sales up 10.7%, organic sales up 10.1%, a raised full-year organic sales guidance of 8.5% to 9.5%, and continued customer implementations, though margin and quality control questions remain. | Medium |
| Financial trend | Q1 2026 net sales of $7.352 billion grew 10.7% with organic growth of 10.1%, but gross margin fell to 25.0% from 27.5%, operating margin fell to 5.7% from 8.6%, net income fell 25.8% to $239 million, and adjusted EBITDA fell 10.6% to $776 million, while operating cash flow was $412 million and free cash flow was $316 million. | High |
| Valuation | At about 34.4x trailing GAAP EPS, 25.5x forward earnings, 1.77x sales, 2.95x book value, and 51.8x trailing free cash flow, the market already prices in continued growth and margin recovery. | Medium |
| Technical trend | MDLN closed at $39.28 on July 31, 2026, below the 20-day moving average near $39.89 and the 100-day near $40.59 but above the 50-day near $37.97, with 14-day RSI near 50 and 14-day ADX near 13.4, which reads as a neutral, choppy range. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are margin compression from tariffs and higher costs, two FDA warning letters in two months, the June Tracy distribution center fire, a July 2026 securities investigation, net debt near $10.3 billion, secondary-offering supply, and a stock trading well above its post-IPO earnings power. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for descriptive facts and cross-checked math that matched across StockAnalysis.com, SEC EDGAR XBRL, and the Q1 2026 earnings release. Lower for forward return estimates because margins, FDA and legal outcomes, fire recovery, and the post-IPO share structure are uncertain. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium-low certainty. The page gives a research framework and scenario ranges, not a buy or sell instruction. | Medium-low |
MDLN AI stock forecast
The MDLN AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the July 31, 2026 close of $39.28 and the FY2026 consensus adjusted EPS estimate of $1.51. The three-scenario framework produced a bearish area near $29, a base area near $46, and a bullish area near $64 before dividends, using adjusted EPS growth of 2%, 8%, and 15% and exit multiples of 18x, 24x, and 28x over three years. These are scenarios, not price commitments.
$58 to $70
More likely if organic sales stay near or above the 8.5% to 9.5% guidance, gross and operating margins recover as tariffs and costs ease, FDA quality issues are resolved without major disruption, the fire recovery completes on time, and the market holds a premium multiple.
$40 to $52
More likely if Medline grows organic sales near the guidance range, adjusts EBITDA toward the $3.5 billion to $3.6 billion outlook, gradually reduces leverage, and keeps the stock near a 24x to 26x forward multiple, in line with the median analyst target of $52.
$26 to $32
More likely if margin compression persists, FDA actions or legal costs escalate, the fire disrupts fulfillment longer than expected, customer or supplier concentration bites, leverage stays high, or the market compresses the multiple toward the 18x area implied by a slow-earnings scenario.
MDLN AI technical analysis
MDLN AI technical analysis is neutral as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff. The stock closed at $39.28 on July 31, 2026, below the 20-day moving average near $39.89 and the 100-day near $40.59 but above the 50-day near $37.97, with 14-day RSI near 50.14 and 14-day ADX near 13.4 confirming a range rather than a trend. The 52-week range is $32.82 to $50.88, and the 200-day average is not yet meaningful after a December 2025 IPO.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $39.28 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote at the July 31, 2026 close; market cap math uses 1.3136 billion economic-interest shares. |
| Near support | $37.50 to $38.20 | StockAnalysis.com and Barchart both placed the 50-day moving average near $37.97 on July 31, 2026, a natural first support zone. |
| Next support | $36.50 to $37.00 | Below the 50-day average, the next reference zone sits near the $36.50 to $37.00 area before the $32.82 52-week low. |
| Near resistance | $40.00 to $41.00 | The 20-day moving average near $39.89 and the 100-day near $40.59 form the first overhead zone, with minor resistance near the $40.50 to $41.00 area. |
| Next resistance | $44.00 to $45.00 | Late-April and early-May public references were near $44 to $45, and analyst low targets cluster near $40 to $45, so this zone matters before the $50.88 high. |
| 50-day moving average | $37.97 | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com both reported the 50-day moving average near $37.97 on July 31, 2026. |
| 100-day moving average | $40.59 | Barchart reported the 100-day moving average near $40.59 on July 31, 2026, slightly above price. |
| 200-day moving average | N/A | MDLN listed on December 17, 2025, so a 200-day average is not yet meaningful and should be treated with caution when it appears. |
| Momentum | RSI near 50, ADX near 13 | 14-day RSI was near 50.14 and 14-day ADX near 13.4 on Barchart, which reads as a neutral, non-trending range. |
| Volume | About 5.3 million average shares | Barchart listed 20-day average volume near 5.31 million shares and StockAnalysis.com near 5.31 million on July 31, 2026, useful for checking breakout quality. |
| Volatility | Elevated post-IPO | Barchart reported 14-day historical volatility near 45% and 20-day average daily range near 4.2%, so position sizing should account for large swings around earnings, FDA news, fire recovery, and offerings. |
| Invalidation | Close below $37.50 | A decisive close below the 50-day moving average near $37.97 would weaken the constructive view; a break below $36.50 would point to a test of the $32.82 low. |
MDLN AI trading strategy
The MDLN AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework for trading and watching a recently listed healthcare distributor. It is not personal advice and should be paired with fresh chart data, filings, position sizing, and a defined invalidation level.
Watch for MDLN to close above the 100-day moving average near $40.59 and the $41.00 area on volume above the 5.3 million average, with the 50-day trend line near $38 still rising.
A daily close back below the 50-day moving average near $37.97 or a failed attempt at $41 should trigger a stop and review.
If MDLN pulls back toward the $36.50 to $38.00 support cluster without new margin, FDA, or legal damage, compare the price reaction with Q2 results on August 5, 2026, margin guidance, and fire recovery news before acting.
Do not average down without a maximum loss rule because FDA warning letters, litigation, or offering supply can turn a support zone into a value trap.
Track organic sales growth, adjusted EBITDA margin, gross margin recovery, net leverage, free cash flow conversion, FDA warning letter status, fire recovery, secondary offerings, and the securities investigation.
Reduce confidence if growth relies mainly on price or volume rather than margin and cash conversion, if leverage stays high, or if FDA and legal overhangs expand.
Investment research summary
Healthcare providers pay Medline for reliable medical-surgical product availability, proprietary products, inventory access, logistics, implementation support, and supply-chain execution across care settings.
The moat is operational: national distribution capacity, healthcare compliance, manufacturing, data and workflow integration, customer relationships, and the difficulty of replacing a broad, dependable supply-chain partner.
The thesis fails if margin compression from tariffs and costs persists, FDA quality actions escalate, the Tracy fire disrupts fulfillment for too long, leverage stays high, or the July 2026 securities investigation leads to material costs or settlements.
Jim Boyle and the operating team have delivered strong top-line execution and a raised organic sales guidance, but investors should evaluate margin control, quality and compliance, capital allocation, debt reduction, equity conversion, and the influence of designated stockholders.
Aging populations, care outside hospitals, provider cost pressure, supply-chain resilience needs, and the push for clinical efficiency support demand. Procurement cycles, reimbursement rules, hospital budgets, product mix, and tariffs can still pressure economics.
At about 34x trailing GAAP EPS, 25.5x forward earnings, and near 52x trailing free cash flow, the price assumes continued growth and improved cash conversion. Margin of safety improves only if operational progress outpaces the valuation, leverage, and regulatory risks.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| MDLN price | $39.28 at the July 31, 2026 close | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote | August 2, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $51.60 billion, computed as $39.28 x 1.3136 billion economic-interest shares | StockAnalysis.com quote and share statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Enterprise value | $61.97 billion | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 net sales | $7.352 billion up 10.7% with organic sales growth of 10.1%, matching the 10-Q XBRL figure of 7352000000 with 0.00% deviation | Medline Q1 2026 earnings release and Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | May 6, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 profitability | Net income $239 million down 25.8%, adjusted EBITDA $776 million down 10.6%, GAAP diluted EPS $0.16, adjusted diluted EPS $0.33 | Medline Q1 2026 earnings release | May 6, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 margin | Gross margin 25.0% down from 27.5%, operating margin 5.7% down from 8.6% | Medline Q1 2026 earnings release | May 6, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 cash flow | Operating cash flow of $412 million and free cash flow of $316 million | Medline Q1 2026 earnings release | May 6, 2026 |
| 2026 guidance | Organic sales growth raised to 8.5% to 9.5% from 8% to 9%, adjusted EBITDA maintained at $3.5 billion to $3.6 billion | Medline Q1 2026 earnings release | May 6, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $28.432 billion up 11.47% from $25.507 billion, cross-validated across the 10-K XBRL, StockAnalysis.com, and company data with 0.00% deviation | StockAnalysis.com financials and SEC 10-K XBRL | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income | $1.159 billion, cross-validated across the 10-K XBRL, StockAnalysis.com, and company data with 0.00% deviation | StockAnalysis.com financials and SEC 10-K XBRL | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | $29.14 billion up 12.1% | StockAnalysis.com financials | August 2, 2026 |
| Cash and cash equivalents | $2.236 billion as of March 28, 2026, matching the Q1 2026 Form 10-Q and press release; SEC EDGAR XBRL shows $2.238 billion | Q1 2026 Form 10-Q and SEC EDGAR XBRL | August 2, 2026 |
| Total debt | $12.572 billion as of March 28, 2026, with $77 million current and $12.495 billion long-term, matching the Q1 2026 Form 10-Q and SEC EDGAR XBRL | Q1 2026 Form 10-Q and SEC EDGAR XBRL | August 2, 2026 |
| Net debt | -$10.336 billion, calculated as cash of $2.236 billion minus total debt of $12.572 billion | StockAnalysis.com balance sheet | August 2, 2026 |
| Total assets and total equity | Total assets of $39.014 billion and total stockholders equity of $19.349 billion, including $11.272 billion Medline Inc. equity and $8.077 billion noncontrolling interests, as of March 28, 2026 | Q1 2026 Form 10-Q and StockAnalysis.com balance sheet | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM cash flow | Operating cash flow of $1.47 billion, capital expenditures of about $0.48 billion, and free cash flow of about $1.0 billion over TTM | StockAnalysis.com cash flow statement and statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Valuation check | 34.40x trailing GAAP EPS, 25.50x forward PE, 1.77x sales, 2.95x book value, 51.81x free cash flow, PEG 5.49, 1.93% FCF yield | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Enterprise valuation | EV/EBITDA 20.11, EV/FCF 62.22, EV/EBIT 30.04 | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Leverage and liquidity | Debt/EBITDA 4.10, Debt/FCF 12.69, interest coverage 2.38, current ratio 4.41, quick ratio 2.34 | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy with an average target of $50.65 across 26 analysts, low $40, median $52, high $62 | StockAnalysis.com forecast and analyst ratings | July 31, 2026 |
| Analyst rating mix, July 2026 | 16 Strong Buy, 6 Buy, 4 Hold, 0 Sell, 0 Strong Sell out of 26 analysts | StockAnalysis.com forecast recommendation trends | July 31, 2026 |
| Recent analyst target updates | BTIG Buy $55, UBS Buy $57 to $50, Evercore ISI Buy $55 to $48, RBC Buy $53, Leerink Buy $56 to $52; Baird and Barclays earlier cut targets toward $45 | StockAnalysis.com analyst ratings | July 31, 2026 |
| 2026 and 2027 consensus estimates | FY2026 revenue $31.08B with adjusted EPS $1.51, FY2027 revenue $35.03B with adjusted EPS $1.67 | StockAnalysis.com forecast financial forecast | July 31, 2026 |
| Short interest | 29.45 million shares short, 2.24% of shares outstanding, 8.25% of float, 3.41 days to cover | StockAnalysis.com statistics short selling | August 2, 2026 |
| Share structure | 1.31 billion economic-interest shares, 845.61 million current Class A share class, float 356.91 million, insider ownership 1.15%, institutional ownership 51.46% | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 20-day SMA near $39.89, 50-day SMA near $37.97, 100-day SMA near $40.59, 200-day N/A, 14-day RSI near 50.14, 14-day ADX near 13.4, 14-day historical volatility near 45% | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com technical snapshots | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 earnings date | August 5, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com and Medline announcement | July 1, 2026 |
| IPO reference | IPO on December 17, 2025 at $29.00 | StockAnalysis.com company profile | August 2, 2026 |
This MDLN AI stock analysis is an informational research tool, not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future return. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available filings, quote snapshots, and third-party data as of the stated cutoff date. They may be wrong, incomplete, or outdated after new earnings, FDA actions, legal developments, market moves, or macro conditions.
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