LPL Financial Holdings Inc. research snapshot
LPL AI stock analysis currently reads LPL Financial as a scaled advisor platform with record client assets, strong organic growth, a second quarter that beat analyst expectations, and a Commonwealth conversion still scheduled for the fourth quarter of 2026. This LPL AI stock analysis treats the LPL AI stock forecast as a scenario range, not a fixed price call. At the August 4, 2026 data cutoff, LPL traded at a $356.91 intraday reference with a verified market capitalization near $28.25 billion. The next result depends on advisor and asset retention, Commonwealth conversion execution, Mariner integration, organic net new assets, market levels, interest-rate-sensitive cash economics, debt, and expense discipline. This page is for informational use only and is not investment advice.
Current price
$356.91 intraday reference on August 3, 2026
Market cap
$28.25 billion verified market capitalization
AI score
68 / 100
Rating
Scaled advisor platform with record client assets, improving operating leverage, a pending Commonwealth conversion, and a price now above its 200-day moving average
Trend status
Above both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages on August 3, 2026 StockAnalysis data, with RSI near 73.8 signaling an overbought short-term condition
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | LPL provides brokerage, advisory, custody, technology, research, planning, and practice support to independent advisors and institutions. Advisors and institutions pay for platform access, service, products, and client-account infrastructure, creating recurring asset-based and advisory revenue. In Q2 2026 total client assets reached $2.6 trillion, up 34% year over year, with advisory assets at $1.5 trillion. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from advisor workflow integration, custody and compliance infrastructure, product breadth, scale, service relationships, switching friction, and distribution density. JD Power ranked Commonwealth first and LPL second for independent advisor satisfaction, which supports the service relationship argument. The moat is meaningful but not absolute because advisors can change affiliation models and competitors invest heavily in recruiting. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO Rich Steinmeier and President and CFO Matt Audette are executing a growth, integration, and capital-return agenda. Management kept the Commonwealth conversion on track for Q4 2026 with about 90% asset retention, raised expected run-rate EBITDA to about $435 million, resumed buybacks, and closed the Mariner Advisor Network acquisition. Execution now matters more than the narrative. | Medium |
| Financial trend | Q2 2026 revenue rose 35% year over year to $5.19 billion and net income rose 39% to $379 million, with adjusted EPS up 29% to $5.84. H1 2026 revenue was $10.13 billion with net income of $735.7 million. FY2025 revenue rose 37% to $16.99 billion while GAAP net income fell 18% to $863 million amid acquisition costs. | High |
| Valuation | At $356.91, LPL traded near 28.36x TTM EPS of $12.55 and 4.86x book value per share of $72.72. The forward PE near 15.34x reflects analyst expectations of large EPS growth after the Commonwealth conversion. The trailing multiple still requires durable earnings normalization and successful acquisition execution rather than only higher market levels. | Medium |
| Technical trend | LPL was above its 50-day moving average near $302.85 and above its 200-day moving average near $329.93, with RSI near 73.8. The trend improved and turned overbought in the near term, so a pullback toward the moving averages is a normal technical scenario rather than a signal change. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks include Commonwealth asset retention and conversion, Mariner integration, debt near $7.46 billion with a 1.91x leverage ratio, advisor attrition, lower markets, pressure on cash-sweep economics, regulatory change, and a negative free-cash-flow reading that needs context around advisor loans and acquisition activity. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Core descriptive data is well supported by SEC filings, LPL releases, and StockAnalysis. Forecast confidence is lower because the largest drivers are future market conditions, advisor behavior, integration results, rates, and valuation sentiment. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | LPL has a credible platform-growth case with improving operating leverage, but the stock needs proof that Commonwealth converts with strong retention, leverage falls, and earnings growth survives less favorable market or rate conditions before certainty can move higher. | Medium |
LPL AI stock forecast
The LPL AI stock forecast is scenario-based because earnings depend on client-asset levels, advisor retention, recruited assets, advisory mix, cash balances, rates, Commonwealth conversion, Mariner integration, acquisition costs, and leverage. Using a $356.91 price reference, TTM EPS of $12.55, and a three-year model checked with the financial rigor tool, the mechanical outcomes are about $433 in a bullish case, $282 in a base case, and $149 in a bearish case before dividends.
$415 to $450 before dividends
More likely if Commonwealth converts on schedule with retention near the roughly 90% target, Mariner adds net new advisors, organic net new assets stay near 4% annualized, markets remain constructive, EPS compounds at roughly 20% a year, and the market holds about a 19x forward multiple. This outcome is broadly consistent with the analyst consensus target near $428.
$265 to $295 before dividends
More likely if LPL retains most Commonwealth assets, grows client assets at a moderate pace, absorbs conversion and integration costs, keeps leverage manageable, and trades near a 16x earnings multiple as investors wait for clean post-conversion results.
$135 to $165 before dividends
More likely if advisor or asset retention disappoints, markets weaken, brokerage outflows continue, cash-sweep economics compress, expenses or regulatory costs rise, leverage stays near current levels, or the market revalues LPL near an 11x earnings multiple.
LPL AI technical analysis
LPL AI technical analysis turned constructive as of the August 4, 2026 data cutoff. StockAnalysis showed a $356.91 intraday reference on August 3, a $28.25 billion market capitalization, a 50-day moving average near $302.85, a 200-day moving average near $329.93, RSI near 73.8, 20-day average volume near 700,000 shares, and a 52-week range of $260.15 to $400.16.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price reference | $356.91 intraday on August 3, 2026 | StockAnalysis listed this real-time reference during the August 3 market session. It is not an end-of-day quote. |
| Immediate support | $350 to $357 | This zone brackets the current reference and the round number at $350. A close below it would weaken the short-term breakout read. |
| 200-day support | $325 to $333 | This range surrounds the 200-day moving average near $329.93 and the breakout zone from the prior repair phase. |
| 50-day support | $300 to $305 | This range surrounds the 50-day moving average near $302.85 and is the main trend support area. |
| Near resistance | $375 to $385 | A break above the recent consolidation would open the path toward the upper end of the 52-week range. |
| Major resistance | $400 to $410 | The 52-week high near $400.16 and the round number at $400 form the main overhead hurdle. |
| Moving averages | 50-day near $302.85, 200-day near $329.93 | Price above both averages suggests an improving trend, but RSI near 73.8 means the move is stretched in the near term. |
| Momentum | RSI near 73.8 | Momentum is strong but overbought. A pullback toward the 200-day average with stable volume would reset the setup. |
| Volume and volatility | 20-day average volume near 700,000 shares; 5-year beta 0.47 | Earnings, advisor-retention updates, market moves, and the Q4 2026 Commonwealth conversion are the main volume catalysts to monitor. |
| Invalidation | Sustained close below $330, followed by a break of the $300 to $305 zone | A close under the 200-day area would reduce trend confidence. A break of the 50-day zone would signal a deeper correction. |
LPL AI trading strategy
The LPL AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It connects technical levels with client assets, advisory and brokerage flows, advisor count and retention, Commonwealth and Mariner milestones, market levels, cash balances, debt, leverage, buyback execution, and the lowered 2026 Core G&A guidance.
Watch for LPL to hold the $350 to $357 area, build on the reclaim of the $329.93 200-day average, and then work toward the $400 to $410 52-week high zone with improving volume, positive organic net new assets, steady advisor retention, and no deterioration in leverage or expense outlook.
A failed move at resistance followed by a close below $330 should reduce trend confidence, especially if client assets fall, advisor attrition rises, or Commonwealth retention weakens.
If LPL pulls back toward the $325 to $333 zone or the $300 to $305 area without an operating reset, compare the lower price with TTM EPS, client-asset trends, net new assets, corporate cash, debt, conversion milestones, and whether advisor economics remain intact.
Do not treat every decline as value if retained Commonwealth assets, organic flows, earnings quality, or cash-sweep economics deteriorate while leverage stays near 1.91x.
Track advisory and brokerage assets, organic net new assets, recruited assets, advisor count, retention, client cash balances, gross profit, Core G&A, adjusted and GAAP EPS, corporate cash, total debt, leverage ratio, buyback execution, and Commonwealth and Mariner milestones.
Position sizing should reflect that a strong advisor platform can still deliver weak stock returns if acquisition assumptions, market conditions, rates, or the valuation multiple move against the thesis.
Investment research summary
Customers pay LPL for a platform that helps independent advisors and institutions custody assets, serve clients, access investment products, execute trades, manage compliance, use technology, and offer planning and advice. The economic engine combines recurring advisory and asset-based revenue with transactional and service revenue. Total client assets reached $2.6 trillion in Q2 2026.
LPL has scale in the advisor-mediated market, workflow integration, custody and compliance infrastructure, broad product access, service relationships, and switching friction. JD Power ranked Commonwealth first and LPL second for independent advisor satisfaction. The moat is strongest when the platform helps an advisor grow while reducing administrative burden, but advisor choice remains a real competitive constraint.
The thesis fails if acquired advisors or assets leave, the Commonwealth conversion causes disruption, the Mariner transition underperforms, recruiting economics worsen, markets decline, rate-sensitive income compresses, debt limits flexibility, regulatory costs rise, or acquisition adjustments mask a weaker core earnings trend.
Management is pursuing scale through organic recruiting, institutional relationships, technology investments such as Latitude and Cyan, and acquisitions including Commonwealth and Mariner. The key test is capital allocation discipline: whether expected retention and run-rate EBITDA materialize while debt, integration cost, and advisor service quality remain controlled, and whether the resumed buyback is used at reasonable prices.
The long-term trend favors advice, retirement planning, outsourcing, and digital workflow for independent advisors. The near-term industry debate is about consolidation, advisor mobility, fee pressure, regulation, and whether larger platforms can integrate acquired networks without eroding their culture or service model.
At $356.91, the price implies LPL can convert acquired assets, sustain organic growth near current rates, preserve advisor economics, and normalize earnings after integration costs. The trailing PE near 28.4x and a forward PE near 15.3x reflect very different earnings paths, and margin of safety depends on the $435 million Commonwealth EBITDA target, a $2.5 billion buyback authorization, leverage near 1.91x, and execution that stays on schedule.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current price and market capitalization | $356.91 intraday reference and $28.25 billion market cap on August 3, 2026 | StockAnalysis statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 79.16 million | StockAnalysis statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 income statement | Revenue $5.19 billion up 35%; net income $379 million up 39%; diluted EPS $4.74; adjusted EPS $5.84 up 29% | LPL Q2 2026 earnings release | August 4, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 client assets and flows | $2.6 trillion total client assets up 34%; $1.5 trillion advisory assets; $23 billion organic net new assets; $25 billion recruited assets | LPL Q2 2026 earnings release | August 4, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 balance sheet | $1.276 billion cash and equivalents; $7.461 billion corporate debt and borrowings; $430 million corporate cash; 1.91x leverage ratio | LPL Q2 2026 earnings release and Form 10-Q | August 4, 2026 |
| FY2025 annual results | $16.99 billion revenue up 37%; $863 million GAAP net income down 18% | LPL FY2025 10-K and StockAnalysis financials | August 4, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | 28.36x trailing PE, 15.34x forward PE, 0.69 PEG, 4.86 PB, 1.46 PS, and 18.44x EV/EBITDA in financial rigor checks | StockAnalysis statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Technical indicators | 50-day MA $302.85, 200-day MA $329.93, RSI 73.8, 20-day average volume 700,357 | StockAnalysis statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy consensus with an average target of $428.36 from 16 analysts, roughly 20% above the current price | StockAnalysis forecast | August 4, 2026 |
| Commonwealth integration targets | Conversion planned for Q4 2026 with approximately 90% asset retention and approximately $435 million run-rate EBITDA expected | LPL Q2 2026 earnings release | August 4, 2026 |
This LPL AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future returns. Forecast scenarios are based on available company filings, market data, and assumptions as of the stated data cutoff, and they can be wrong if earnings, market levels, advisor retention, interest rates, integration results, valuation multiples, or other conditions change.
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