Liberty Live Holdings, Inc. research snapshot
LLYVK AI stock analysis reads Liberty Live Holdings as an asset-backed holding company rather than a conventional earnings compounder. The stock closed at $98.60 on July 31, 2026, down 6.67% on the day, and the market value was about $9.06 billion on approximately 92.00 million shares. Liberty Live owns about 69.6 million Live Nation shares, roughly 30% of Live Nation, alongside the Quint premium events business, other investments, cash, exchangeable debt, and forward contracts. FY2025 revenue was $381.95 million, adjusted OIBDA was $12.0 million at Quint and negative $20.1 million for the group, and the GAAP net loss attributable to Liberty Live was $87.0 million. Live Nation reported Q2 2026 results on July 30 that beat revenue estimates and raised guidance, yet LYV fell 5.14% the next day and LLYVK fell 6.67%. No Q2 2026 Form 10-Q for Liberty Live had been filed by the August 3, 2026 cutoff. The main LLYVK AI stock forecast question is whether Live Nation value, Quint growth, and a narrower holding-company discount can outweigh negative earnings, debt-linked mark-to-market volatility, limited standalone history, and regulatory exposure around Ticketmaster.
Current price
$98.60
Market cap
$9.06 billion using the July 31, 2026 close and about 92.00 million total shares, with a 0.13% market-cap calculation variance
AI score
50 / 100
Rating
Asset-backed live entertainment holding company with a valuable Live Nation stake, improving Quint operating results, negative GAAP earnings, meaningful structure and leverage risk, and a short-term technical pullback below the 20-day and 50-day moving averages
Trend status
Neutral short-term trend after a 6.67% drop on July 31, 2026 left price below the 20-day and 50-day moving averages but above the 200-day moving average; the long-term trend is still up
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Liberty Live combines a 30% Live Nation stake with Quint, a premium sports and entertainment hospitality operator, plus smaller public and private investments. The asset mix is valuable but not simple to underwrite as one operating company. | Medium-high |
| Moat | The strongest moat sits in the underlying Live Nation ecosystem: Ticketmaster distribution, artist and venue relationships, scale, fan data, and sponsorship reach. Liberty Live mainly benefits through ownership and board influence, while Quint has exclusive event rights and execution know-how but faces event and discretionary-spending risk. | Medium |
| Management | CEO Chad R. Hollingsworth leads a newly separated company with services, tax, and facilities agreements inherited from Liberty Media. March 2026 exchange agreements with holders of the 2.375% exchangeable senior debentures due 2053 show active balance-sheet management. The key management test is whether capital allocation, debt reduction, and disclosure make the discount easier to analyze without creating avoidable dilution or structural complexity. | Medium |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue grew to $381.95 million from $340.49 million, but the group still posted an $87.13 million net loss and used $29.46 million of operating cash. Q1 2026 revenue was $63.62 million and the net loss was $294.14 million, mostly affected by affiliate and financial-instrument losses. A Q2 2026 Form 10-Q had not been filed by the cutoff. | High for reported figures |
| Valuation | Normal PE, PB, and FCF-yield analysis is not meaningful because current EPS and book value per share are negative. A useful first screen is asset value less debt and derivatives, adjusted for a persistent holding-company discount. At $98.60, the market cap was about $9.06 billion against an illustrative gross Live Nation stake value near $12.1 billion. | Medium-low |
| Technical trend | Price closed at $98.60 on July 31, below the 20-day and 50-day moving averages near $102.69 and $100.74 but above the 200-day moving average near $92.43. RSI fell to about 42.9 and the day volume of 715,309 shares was well above the 20-day average, so the short-term trend is neutral and needs to reclaim the moving-average zone. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Risk is high because Liberty Live depends on Live Nation, carries exchangeable debt and forward contracts, has negative reported equity, faces antitrust and ticketing scrutiny through Live Nation, and has limited independent public-company history. | High |
| AI confidence | AI research confidence is medium-high for filed facts and market structure, but only medium for the forecast because the stock is an indirect claim on a changing portfolio rather than a normal operating earnings stream. | Medium-high |
| Investment certainty | Investment certainty is below data confidence. The thesis is most defensible as a discounted asset-value and governance question, not as a high-confidence forecast of near-term earnings. | Medium-low |
LLYVK AI stock forecast
The LLYVK AI stock forecast uses a wide asset-value framework because the company has negative TTM EPS and negative book value. Pineify financial_rigor.py was run with the negative EPS input, but its three-scenario earnings outputs were negative and not decision-useful. The ranges below instead stress Live Nation value, net debt and derivatives, Quint progress, and the holding-company discount. They are scenarios, not guaranteed price targets.
$115 to $140
More likely if Live Nation holds near or above the July 31 area after its strong Q2 2026 report, Quint sustains positive adjusted OIBDA and seasonal growth, the company reduces debt and forward-contract risk, private assets become easier to value, and the market narrows the holding-company discount.
$85 to $115
More likely if Live Nation value is broadly stable, Quint remains profitable but seasonal, corporate costs and debt offset part of the asset value, and LLYVK continues to trade at a material discount to an imperfect look-through NAV.
$50 to $75
More likely if Live Nation falls further after its recent high, antitrust remedies or operating problems reduce its value, Quint loses event momentum, the holding-company discount widens, or debt, derivatives, taxes, and private-asset write-downs consume more of the portfolio value.
LLYVK AI technical analysis
LLYVK AI technical analysis uses the July 31, 2026 close and public technical snapshots available at the cutoff. StockAnalysis reported a $98.60 close, a 52-week range of $76.94 to $108.98, beta of 1.41, and volume of 715,309 shares on July 31. Its statistics snapshot showed a 50-day moving average near $100.74, a 200-day moving average near $92.43, RSI near 42.90, and 20-day average volume near 324,550 shares. Chartmill reported the same close and showed SMA levels near $102.69, $100.74, $98.16, and $92.43 for the 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day periods, a technical rating of 4 out of 10, and support zones near $97.17 to $97.69, $93.35 to $93.89, and $91.18 to $91.72. Differences across vendors reflect different timestamps and calculation windows.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $98.60 | July 31, 2026 closing price from the current market-data snapshot, down 6.67% on the day. |
| Near resistance | $98.95 to $102.69 | Chartmill resistance zone formed by trend lines and moving averages. Price is at the lower edge after the July 31 drop. |
| Near support | $97.17 to $97.69 | Chartmill support zone near the recent 10-day range low around $97.57. A hold here matters for the short-term picture. |
| Secondary support | $93.35 to $93.89 | A support zone combining daily and weekly trend lines below the current price. |
| Key support | $91.18 to $91.72 | The 200-day moving-average area. A sustained break would weaken the long-term chart structure. |
| 20-day moving average | About $102.69 | Chartmill snapshot at the July 31 close. Price is below a declining 20-day SMA, a short-term sell signal in that model. |
| 50-day moving average | About $100.74 | Both Chartmill and StockAnalysis show a similar 50-day level. Price is below it. |
| 100-day moving average | About $98.16 | Chartmill snapshot at the July 31 close, roughly at the current price. |
| 200-day moving average | About $92.43 | The long-term trend reference in the July snapshots. Price remains above it. |
| Momentum | RSI about 42.9, MACD about -0.2 | RSI is neutral and MACD is below zero and declining, consistent with a short-term pullback. |
| Volume | 715,309 shares versus about 324,550 average | The July 31 volume snapshot was roughly double the 20-day average on a down day, so the move had participation and needs confirmation. |
| Volatility | Beta 1.41, ATR about 2.94% | Beta and ATR are used as available volatility proxies. They do not describe every gap or event-driven move. |
| Invalidation | Daily close below $91.18 to $91.72 | A break of the 200-day area would invalidate the constructive long-term chart structure until reclaimed. |
LLYVK AI trading strategy
The LLYVK AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework, not personalized advice. It combines asset-value checks, Live Nation confirmation, technical levels, volume, and explicit invalidation. Because LLYVK is a holding company, a price signal without a portfolio and debt check can be misleading.
Treat a recovery above the $98.95 to $102.69 resistance zone as a possible resumption only when volume expands and Live Nation is not simultaneously breaking down. A close back above the 50-day moving average near $100.74 would improve the setup. A higher high in LLYVK without support from its main asset deserves a lower confidence label.
Reduce confidence after a failed reclaim or a close below the $97.17 to $97.69 support zone. Use a predefined position size because beta and event risk can produce fast gaps.
A pullback into the $93.35 to $93.89 or $91.18 to $91.72 support zones can be studied if Live Nation remains stable after its Q2 2026 report, Quint results are on track, and the look-through discount has not widened. Compare price with a refreshed estimate of stake value, net debt, derivatives, and corporate costs.
Do not average down only because the stock trades below a simple stake-value estimate. A close below $91.18 to $91.72 or a fundamental break in Live Nation should override the mean-reversion thesis.
Track Live Nation earnings and antitrust developments, Quint revenue and adjusted OIBDA, cash and debt, forward-contract settlements, exchangeable-debt balances, private-asset marks, share count, and any change in the holding-company discount. The next Liberty Live Form 10-Q for Q2 2026 had not been filed by the August 3, 2026 cutoff.
Lower the rating if operating cash flow stays negative, leverage rises, the company issues equity without a clear value case, or the Live Nation stake loses value faster than the market discount improves.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Quint for premium access, hospitality, travel, and event logistics around sports and entertainment. Liberty Live shareholders also own an indirect claim on Live Nation through a large equity stake. The company is therefore a portfolio of live-event assets and financial claims, not a single product company.
The deepest moat is in Live Nation: Ticketmaster distribution, relationships with artists and venues, fan data, global scale, and sponsorship reach. Quint adds exclusive rights, event execution, customer relationships, and logistics. Liberty Live does not control every underlying operating decision, so its moat is partly an ownership and access advantage.
The thesis can fail if Live Nation faces a material antitrust remedy, ticketing economics weaken, live-event demand falls, Quint loses key rights, debt and forward contracts consume asset value, private holdings are marked down, or the discount remains wide for structural governance reasons. The simplest mistake is to subtract only reported debt from the quoted LYV stake and call the remainder intrinsic value.
Chad R. Hollingsworth is the President and Chief Executive Officer of the separate Liberty Live entity. The split-off created a fresh capital-allocation record, while services and facilities agreements with Liberty Media add related-party complexity. March 2026 exchange agreements with holders of the 2.375% exchangeable senior debentures due 2053 show ongoing balance-sheet management. The key test is whether management makes the portfolio easier to value and reduces financial complexity per share.
Live entertainment benefits from fan demand for in-person experiences, global touring, digital ticket distribution, premium hospitality, and sponsorship. Live Nation reported Q2 2026 results on July 30 with revenue up about 9%, double-digit growth in attendance, revenue, and adjusted operating income, record fan demand, and raised 2026 guidance, while it connected with more than 805 million fans and promoted shows for about 11,000 artists in 2025. The trend is durable, but discretionary spending, event cancellations, technology shifts, and antitrust policy can change the economics.
At $98.60, LLYVK cannot be judged with a normal PE or P/FCF framework because current EPS and book value are negative. An illustrative check using about 69.6 million LYV shares at roughly $174.13 implies a gross stake value near $12.1 billion before debt, forward contracts, taxes, corporate costs, and the value of Quint and other assets. The $9.06 billion market cap leaves room for debate about the discount, which is the core margin-of-safety question rather than a price promise.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| LLYVK price and market snapshot | $98.60 close on July 31, 2026, down 6.67% on the day; market cap about $9.06 billion; volume 715,309; 52-week range $76.94 to $108.98 | StockAnalysis market quote snapshot | August 3, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 91.84 million in the market-data snapshot; Liberty Live reported 25.573685 million Series A, 2.530951 million Series B, and 63.899793 million Series C shares as of April 30, 2026, or about 92.004 million total | StockAnalysis and Liberty Live Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | August 3, 2026 |
| Market-cap verification | $98.60 x 92.004429 million shares = about $9.07 billion versus reported market cap about $9.06 billion; deviation 0.13% | Pineify financial_rigor.py and market quote data | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and operating result | $381.951 million total revenue, $51.732 million operating loss, and $20.083 million adjusted OIBDA loss for the group; Quint adjusted OIBDA was $12.019 million | Liberty Live FY2025 Form 10-K | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income and cash flow | $87.134 million net loss, $86.967 million net loss attributable to Liberty Live, and $29.455 million net cash used in operating activities | Liberty Live FY2025 Form 10-K | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 financial position | $524.431 million cash, $1.818523 billion current portion of long-term debt measured at fair value, $66.276 million financial-instrument liabilities, and negative total equity of $295.734 million at March 31, 2026 | Liberty Live Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 operating result | $63.620 million revenue, $16.690 million operating loss, $8.618 million net cash used in operating activities, and $294.138 million net loss attributable to Liberty Live, including $124.326 million of affiliate losses and $229.632 million of realized and unrealized losses | Liberty Live Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | August 3, 2026 |
| Live Nation ownership | Approximately 69.6 million LYV shares, about 30% of Live Nation at December 31, 2025, with rights to nominate two Live Nation directors while the ownership threshold is maintained | Liberty Live FY2025 Form 10-K and asset list | August 3, 2026 |
| Underlying asset reference | Live Nation price snapshot about $174.13 on July 31, 2026; 69.6 million shares imply a gross reference value near $12.1 billion before debt, derivatives, tax, and discount adjustments; Live Nation reported about 9% revenue growth and raised 2026 guidance on July 30 | StockAnalysis LYV quote and Liberty Live ownership disclosure | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical indicators | 50-day moving average about $100.74, 200-day moving average about $92.43, RSI about 42.90, beta 1.41, and 20-day average volume about 324,550 shares in the StockAnalysis snapshot; Chartmill showed SMA levels near $102.69, $100.74, $98.16, and $92.43, a technical rating of 4 out of 10, and support zones near $97.17 to $97.69, $93.35 to $93.89, and $91.18 to $91.72 at the July 31 close | StockAnalysis and Chartmill technical snapshots | August 3, 2026 |
| Short interest and ownership | Short interest of 1.77 million shares, about 1.93% of shares outstanding, with a short ratio near 7.2 days; insiders held about 7.54% and institutions about 63.19% of shares | StockAnalysis statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Vendor data reconciliation | StockAnalysis showed TTM revenue of $11.22 million, TTM net loss of $353.20 million, cash of $375.84 million, and book value per share of negative $4.45, which do not match the latest Liberty Live filing periods. The difference is treated as a split-off and period-definition source gap, not blended into the filing figures. | StockAnalysis statistics and Liberty Live SEC filings | August 3, 2026 |
| Valuation math limitation | financial_rigor.py calculated negative PE of -25.68x and negative PB of -22.16x using market-data EPS of -$3.84 and book value per share of -$4.45; the three-scenario EPS model returned negative values and was not used as a price forecast | Pineify financial_rigor.py and StockAnalysis statistics | August 3, 2026 |
This LLYVK AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, tax advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Forecast scenarios use public data available as of August 3, 2026 and can be wrong. Liberty Live results may change with Live Nation price movements, Quint seasonality, debt and derivative marks, antitrust developments, private-asset valuations, taxes, corporate costs, dilution, and the holding-company discount.
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