Liberty Live Holdings, Inc. research snapshot
LLYVK AI stock analysis currently reads Liberty Live Holdings as an asset-backed holding company rather than a conventional earnings compounder. The stock closed at $103.21 on July 10, 2026, and the calculated equity value was about $9.50 billion on approximately 92.00 million shares. Liberty Live owns about 69.6 million Live Nation shares, or roughly 30% of Live Nation, alongside the Quint premium event business, other investments, cash, exchangeable debt, and forward contracts. FY2025 revenue was $381.95 million, adjusted OIBDA was $12.0 million at Quint and negative $20.1 million for the group, and GAAP net loss attributable to Liberty Live was $87.0 million. The main LLYVK AI stock forecast question is whether Live Nation value, Quint growth, and a narrower holding-company discount can outweigh negative earnings, debt-linked mark-to-market volatility, limited standalone history, and regulatory exposure around Ticketmaster.
Current price
$103.21
Market cap
$9.48 billion using the July 10 close and about 92.00 million total shares, with a 0.17% market-cap calculation variance
AI score
54 / 100
Rating
Asset-backed live entertainment holding company with a valuable Live Nation stake, improving Quint operating results, negative GAAP earnings, and meaningful structure and leverage risk
Trend status
Constructive short and intermediate trend, with price above the 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages but below the recent 52-week high
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Liberty Live combines a 30% Live Nation stake with Quint, a premium sports and entertainment hospitality operator, plus smaller public and private investments. The asset mix is valuable but not simple to underwrite as one operating company. | Medium-high |
| Moat | The strongest moat sits in the underlying Live Nation ecosystem: Ticketmaster distribution, artist and venue relationships, scale, fan data, and sponsorship reach. Liberty Live mainly benefits through ownership and board influence, while Quint has exclusive event rights and execution know-how but faces event and discretionary-spending risk. | Medium |
| Management | CEO Chad R. Hollingsworth leads a newly separated company with services, tax, and facilities agreements inherited from Liberty Media. The key management test is whether capital allocation, debt reduction, and disclosure make the discount easier to analyze without creating avoidable dilution or structural complexity. | Medium |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue grew to $381.95 million from $340.49 million, but the group still posted an $87.13 million net loss and used $29.46 million of operating cash. Q1 2026 revenue was $63.62 million and net loss was $294.14 million, mostly affected by affiliate and financial-instrument losses. | High for reported figures |
| Valuation | Normal PE, PB, and FCF-yield analysis is not meaningful because current EPS and book value per share are negative and public data vendors disagree on the TTM period. A useful first screen is asset value less debt and derivatives, adjusted for a persistent holding-company discount. | Medium-low |
| Technical trend | Price was above the 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages in the July 7 technical snapshot and finished July 10 at $103.21. Momentum was constructive but volume was below the reported 20-day average, so the move needs confirmation near the $108.98 52-week high. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Risk is high because Liberty Live depends on Live Nation, carries exchangeable debt and forward contracts, has negative reported equity, faces antitrust and ticketing scrutiny through Live Nation, and has limited independent public-company history. | High |
| AI confidence | AI research confidence is medium-high for filed facts and market structure, but only medium for the forecast because the stock is an indirect claim on a changing portfolio rather than a normal operating earnings stream. | Medium-high |
| Investment certainty | Investment certainty is below data confidence. The thesis is most defensible as a discounted asset-value and governance question, not as a high-confidence forecast of near-term earnings. | Medium-low |
LLYVK AI stock forecast
The LLYVK AI stock forecast uses a wide asset-value framework because the company has negative TTM EPS and negative book value. Pineify financial_rigor.py was run with the negative EPS input, but its three-scenario earnings outputs were negative and not decision-useful. The ranges below instead stress Live Nation value, net debt and derivatives, Quint progress, and the holding-company discount. They are scenarios, not guaranteed price targets.
$125 to $150
More likely if Live Nation remains near or above the July 10 trading area, Quint sustains positive adjusted OIBDA and seasonal growth, the company reduces debt and forward-contract risk, private assets become easier to value, and the market narrows the holding-company discount.
$90 to $120
More likely if Live Nation value is broadly stable, Quint remains profitable but seasonal, corporate costs and debt offset part of the asset value, and LLYVK continues to trade at a material discount to an imperfect look-through NAV.
$55 to $80
More likely if Live Nation falls materially, antitrust remedies or operating problems reduce its value, Quint loses event momentum, the holding-company discount widens, or debt, derivatives, taxes, and private-asset write-downs consume more of the portfolio value.
LLYVK AI technical analysis
LLYVK AI technical analysis uses the July 10, 2026 close and the latest public technical snapshots available at the cutoff. StockAnalysis reported a $103.21 close, a 52-week range of $76.30 to $108.98, beta of 1.41, and volume of 299,334 shares. Its July 9 snapshot showed a 50-day moving average near $98.91, a 200-day moving average near $91.72, RSI near 59.37, and 20-day average volume near 511,918 shares. Chartmill reported July 7 averages near $101.56, $98.44, and $91.63 for the 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day periods. Differences reflect different timestamps and calculation windows.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $103.21 | July 10, 2026 closing price from the current market-data snapshot. |
| Near support | $98 to $102 | The 20-day and 50-day moving-average area. A hold here would preserve the short and intermediate trend. |
| Secondary support | $91 to $94 | The 200-day moving-average area and a prior consolidation zone. A sustained break would weaken the long-term chart. |
| Near resistance | $108.98 to $110 | The reported 52-week high and the first breakout test. Breakout quality depends on volume and Live Nation confirmation. |
| 20-day moving average | About $101.56 | Chartmill snapshot at the July 7, 2026 close. The exact value may change with each session. |
| 50-day moving average | About $98.44 to $98.91 | Chartmill and StockAnalysis snapshots differ because they were captured on different dates. |
| 200-day moving average | About $91.63 to $91.72 | The long-term trend reference in the July technical snapshots. |
| Momentum | RSI about 59.37, constructive but not extreme | RSI was in a positive but not overbought area in the StockAnalysis snapshot. |
| Volume | 299,334 shares versus about 511,918 average | The July 10 volume snapshot was below the reported 20-day average, so a breakout needs stronger participation. |
| Volatility | Beta 1.41 | Beta is used as the available volatility proxy. It does not describe every gap or event-driven move. |
| Invalidation | Daily close below $91.63 to $91.72 | A break of the 200-day area would invalidate the constructive long-term chart structure until reclaimed. |
LLYVK AI trading strategy
The LLYVK AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework, not personalized advice. It combines asset-value checks, Live Nation confirmation, technical levels, volume, and explicit invalidation. Because LLYVK is a holding company, a price signal without a portfolio and debt check can be misleading.
Treat a close above $108.98 as a possible breakout only when volume expands toward or above the 20-day average and Live Nation is not simultaneously breaking down. A higher high in LLYVK without support from its main asset deserves a lower confidence label.
Reduce confidence after a failed breakout or a close below the $98 to $102 moving-average zone. Use a predefined position size because beta and event risk can produce fast gaps.
A pullback into $98 to $102 can be studied if Live Nation remains stable, Quint results are on track, and the look-through discount has not widened. Compare price with a refreshed estimate of stake value, net debt, derivatives, and corporate costs.
Do not average down only because the stock trades below a simple stake-value estimate. A close below $91.63 to $91.72 or a fundamental break in Live Nation should override the mean-reversion thesis.
Track Live Nation earnings and antitrust developments, Quint revenue and adjusted OIBDA, cash and debt, forward-contract settlements, exchangeable-debt balances, private-asset marks, share count, and any change in the holding-company discount.
Lower the rating if operating cash flow stays negative, leverage rises, the company issues equity without a clear value case, or the Live Nation stake loses value faster than the market discount improves.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Quint for premium access, hospitality, travel, and event logistics around sports and entertainment. Liberty Live shareholders also own an indirect claim on Live Nation through a large equity stake. The company is therefore a portfolio of live-event assets and financial claims, not a single product company.
The deepest moat is in Live Nation: Ticketmaster distribution, relationships with artists and venues, fan data, global scale, and sponsorship reach. Quint adds exclusive rights, event execution, customer relationships, and logistics. Liberty Live does not control every underlying operating decision, so its moat is partly an ownership and access advantage.
The thesis can fail if Live Nation faces a material antitrust remedy, ticketing economics weaken, live-event demand falls, Quint loses key rights, debt and forward contracts consume asset value, private holdings are marked down, or the discount remains wide for structural governance reasons. The simplest mistake is to subtract only reported debt from the quoted LYV stake and call the remainder intrinsic value.
Chad R. Hollingsworth is the President and Chief Executive Officer of the separate Liberty Live entity. The split-off created a fresh capital-allocation record, while services and facilities agreements with Liberty Media add related-party complexity. The key test is whether management makes the portfolio easier to value and reduces financial complexity per share.
Live entertainment benefits from fan demand for in-person experiences, global touring, digital ticket distribution, premium hospitality, and sponsorship. Live Nation reported connections with more than 805 million fans and shows for about 11,000 artists in 2025. The trend is durable, but discretionary spending, event cancellations, technology shifts, and antitrust policy can change the economics.
At $103.21, LLYVK cannot be judged with a normal PE or P/FCF framework because current EPS and book value are negative. An illustrative check using about 69.6 million LYV shares at roughly $180.02 implies a gross stake value near $12.5 billion before debt, forward contracts, taxes, corporate costs, and the value of Quint and other assets. That is a starting point for a discount analysis, not a formal NAV or a price promise.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| LLYVK price and market snapshot | $103.21 close on July 10, 2026; market cap about $9.48 billion; volume 299,334; 52-week range $76.30 to $108.98 | StockAnalysis market quote snapshot | July 12, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 91.84 million in the market-data snapshot; Liberty Live reported 25.573685 million Series A, 2.530951 million Series B, and 63.899793 million Series C shares as of April 30, 2026, or about 92.004 million total | StockAnalysis and Liberty Live Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | July 12, 2026 |
| Market-cap verification | $103.21 x 92.004429 million shares = about $9.50 billion versus reported market cap about $9.48 billion; deviation 0.17% | Pineify financial_rigor.py and market quote data | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and operating result | $381.951 million total revenue, $51.732 million operating loss, and $20.083 million adjusted OIBDA loss for the group; Quint adjusted OIBDA was $12.019 million | Liberty Live FY2025 Form 10-K | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income and cash flow | $87.134 million net loss, $86.967 million net loss attributable to Liberty Live, and $29.455 million net cash used in operating activities | Liberty Live FY2025 Form 10-K | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 financial position | $524.431 million cash, $1.818523 billion current portion of debt, $66.276 million financial-instrument liabilities, and negative total equity of $295.734 million at March 31, 2026 | Liberty Live Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 operating result | $63.620 million revenue, $16.690 million operating loss, and $294.138 million net loss attributable to Liberty Live, including $124.326 million of affiliate losses and $229.632 million of realized and unrealized losses | Liberty Live Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | July 12, 2026 |
| Live Nation ownership | Approximately 69.6 million LYV shares, about 30% of Live Nation at December 31, 2025, with rights to nominate two Live Nation directors while the ownership threshold is maintained | Liberty Live FY2025 Form 10-K and asset list | July 12, 2026 |
| Underlying asset reference | Live Nation price snapshot about $180.02 on July 10, 2026; 69.6 million shares imply a gross reference value near $12.5 billion before debt, derivatives, tax, and discount adjustments | StockAnalysis LYV quote and Liberty Live ownership disclosure | July 12, 2026 |
| Technical indicators | 50-day moving average about $98.91, 200-day moving average about $91.72, RSI about 59.37, beta 1.41, and 20-day average volume about 511,918 shares in the latest public snapshot; Chartmill showed 20-day SMA about $101.56 and 50-day SMA about $98.44 on July 7 | StockAnalysis and Chartmill technical snapshots | July 12, 2026 |
| Vendor data reconciliation | StockAnalysis showed TTM revenue of $11.22 million, TTM net loss of $353.20 million, and cash of $375.84 million, which do not match the latest Liberty Live filing periods. The difference is treated as a split-off and period-definition source gap, not blended into the filing figures. | StockAnalysis statistics and Liberty Live SEC filings | July 12, 2026 |
| Valuation math limitation | financial_rigor.py calculated negative PE of -26.88x and negative PB of -23.19x using market-data EPS of -$3.84 and book value per share of -$4.45; the three-scenario EPS model returned negative values and was not used as a price forecast | Pineify financial_rigor.py and StockAnalysis statistics | July 12, 2026 |
This LLYVK AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, tax advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Forecast scenarios use public data available as of July 12, 2026 and can be wrong. Liberty Live results may change with Live Nation price movements, Quint seasonality, debt and derivative marks, antitrust developments, private-asset valuations, taxes, corporate costs, dilution, and the holding-company discount.
Design trading strategies visually with 10+ indicators. Set entry/exit conditions and risk management, then generate Pine Script code with no coding required.
Filter and discover stocks based on market cap, dividend yield, P/E ratio, sector, and more. Screen thousands of stocks with real-time data.
Smart AI-driven stock selection with fundamental screening, analyst estimates, and key metrics. Filter by P/E, market cap, dividends, and more.
