LifeStance Health Group research snapshot
LifeStance Health Group (LFST) trades at $10.62 as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff at 11:51 AM EDT, up 0.14 or 1.34% from the $10.48 July 31 close, with a market capitalization near $4.12 billion, verified as $10.62 times 387.83 million shares outstanding. The AI analysis rates LFST a Moderate Buy with a score of 6.3 out of 10. The company runs one of the largest U.S. outpatient behavioral health networks, with 8,349 clinicians across 33 states, and is executing a profitability turnaround: Q1 2026 revenue grew 21% to $403.5 million, net income reached $14.2 million, and adjusted EBITDA rose 48% to $51.1 million, with management raising full-year 2026 revenue guidance to $1.640 billion to $1.680 billion. The stock is up about 148% over the trailing 52 weeks and made a new 52-week high of $11.76 on July 20, 2026 before a short-term pullback that took it below the 20-day moving average near $10.94. Valuation remains rich on trailing earnings near 177x, but more moderate on the 2026 adjusted EPS consensus of about $0.31, which implies a forward multiple near 34x. This page is informational only and is not investment advice.
Current price
$10.62 at the August 3, 2026, 11:51 AM EDT reading, up 0.14 or 1.34% from the $10.48 July 31 close, within a day range near $10.47 to $10.80 after opening at $10.63
Market cap
$4.12 billion
AI score
6.3 / 10
Rating
Moderate Buy
Trend status
Uptrend intact with a short-term pullback below the 20-day moving average after reaching a 52-week high of $11.76 on July 20, 2026
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business Quality | Outpatient behavioral health is a structurally growing market. LFST operates one of the largest U.S. platforms with 8,349 clinicians, more than 550 centers across 33 states, in-network insurance contracts, and a hybrid in-person plus telehealth model. TTM revenue is near $1.49 billion growing roughly 16%. | Medium |
| Moat | Moderate: national scale, insurance network participation, a clinician recruitment and onboarding engine, brand recognition, and the hybrid care model create some barriers. Patient switching costs are low and reimbursement ultimately depends on payers. | Medium |
| Management | CEO Dave Bourdon has executed a credible turnaround: five consecutive quarters of positive net income, Q1 2026 net income of $14.2 million, adjusted EBITDA up 48%, a raised 2026 revenue guide, and a $100 million buyback authorized in February 2026. Offsetting: $63.6 million of insider sales in the past three months and a May 2026 secondary offering of 35 million shares. | Medium |
| Financial Trend | Strong improvement. FY2025 net income turned positive at $9.66 million versus a $57.4 million loss in FY2024, and Q1 2026 net income reached $14.2 million on 21% revenue growth with adjusted EBITDA margin up to 12.7%. TTM free cash flow is about $143 million. | High |
| Valuation | Rich on trailing earnings near 177x TTM EPS of $0.06, but moderate on the 2026 adjusted EPS consensus of $0.31 (about 34x) and on trailing free cash flow near 28.5x. The market is pricing in continued double-digit growth and margin expansion. | Medium |
| Technical Trend | Uptrend intact with a short-term pullback. LFST reached a 52-week high of $11.76 on July 20, 2026, then cooled to the $10.48 July 31 close and $10.62 on August 3, now below the 20-day moving average near $10.94 but above the rising 50-day near $9.61 and 200-day near $7.44. | Medium |
| Risk Level | Elevated: rich valuation, dependence on clinician hiring and wages, payer reimbursement risk, dilution from the May 2026 secondary offering, $63.6 million of insider sales, regulatory oversight of behavioral health, and near-term event risk from the August 6 Q2 report. | Medium |
| AI Confidence | Medium-high for descriptive facts and cross-checked math that matched across StockAnalysis.com, Barchart, MarketBeat, and the Q1 2026 earnings release. Lower for forward return estimates because the Q2 report, reimbursement, and labor variables are uncertain. | Medium-high |
| Investment Certainty | Low-to-medium. The business quality and trend are improving, but the valuation and the August 6 earnings event limit the margin of safety for a new position. | Medium |
LFST AI stock forecast
The LFST AI stock forecast is scenario-based. Analyst price targets span $9.00 to $15.00 with an S&P Global consensus near $12 and a median of $13 among 11 analysts. Using the $10.62 August 3, 2026 reading and the FY2026 adjusted EPS consensus of $0.31, the three-scenario framework produced a bearish area near $6.50 to $8.50, a base area near $10.50 to $12.50, and a bullish area near $13.50 to $15.00 over about three years, depending on revenue growth, adjusted EBITDA margin, clinician labor costs, reimbursement rates, and the forward multiple. These are scenarios, not price commitments.
$13.50 - $15.00
More likely if Q2 and Q3 2026 results beat, revenue keeps growing near 20%, adjusted EBITDA margin climbs toward 14% to 15%, clinician hiring stays ahead of demand, and the market assigns a forward multiple in the mid-40s, as BTIG ($15) and Jefferies ($14) assume.
$10.50 - $12.50
More likely if the company hits the raised 2026 revenue range of $1.640 billion to $1.680 billion, adjusted EBITDA lands near $210 million, growth settles near 16% to 18%, and the forward multiple holds in the mid-to-high 30s, consistent with the $12 consensus and $13 median target.
$6.50 - $8.50
More likely if revenue growth decelerates below 15%, clinician wages re-accelerate, payers cut reimbursement, the secondary overhang or further insider selling weighs on the stock, or Q2 results disappoint and the multiple compresses toward the mid-to-high 20s, consistent with the $9.00 low target from Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan.
LFST AI technical analysis
LFST AI technical analysis is mixed as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff: the long-term uptrend is intact, but the stock is in a short-term pullback. The stock traded at $10.62 at 11:51 AM EDT, up 0.14 from the $10.48 July 31 close, after making a new 52-week high of $11.76 on July 20, 2026 and pulling back roughly 9.7% from that high. Price sits below the 5-day ($10.78) and 20-day ($10.94) moving averages but above the rising 50-day ($9.61), 100-day ($8.28), and 200-day ($7.44) averages. The 14-day RSI near 51 is neutral, the 14-day stochastic near 8% is oversold, and a 20-day ADX near 37.8 with +DI above -DI confirms the medium-term trend is still up. Barchart technical opinion is 80% Buy.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current Price | $10.62 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote at the August 3, 2026, 11:51 AM EDT reading, up 0.14 or 1.34% from the $10.48 July 31 close within a day range near $10.47 to $10.80 after opening at $10.63; the reported $4.12 billion market cap matches $10.62 times 387.83 million shares. |
| Resistance (52-week high) | $11.76 | Reached July 20, 2026. A decisive move back above this level with volume opens the path toward the $13 to $15 analyst target zone. |
| Resistance (near-term) | $10.73 - $11.10 | Barchart placed the first resistance at $10.73, second at $10.97, and third at $11.10 as of August 3, 2026; these are the levels the stock must reclaim to resume the uptrend. |
| Support (near-term) | $10.35 - $9.98 | Barchart placed the first support at $10.35, second at $10.22, and third at $9.98 as of August 3, 2026, a natural first pullback support zone ahead of the 50-day moving average. |
| 20-Day Moving Average | $10.94 | Barchart reported the 20-day moving average near $10.94 on August 3, 2026, now just above price; reclaiming it would signal the short-term pullback is over. |
| 50-Day Moving Average | $9.61 | Barchart reported the 50-day moving average near $9.61 on August 3, 2026, matching StockAnalysis.com at $9.55; it is rising and is the main medium-term support. |
| 100-Day Moving Average | $8.28 | Barchart reported the 100-day moving average near $8.28 on August 3, 2026, well below price and confirming the medium-term uptrend. |
| 200-Day Moving Average | $7.44 | Barchart reported the 200-day trend line near $7.44 on August 3, 2026, below price and matching StockAnalysis.com at $7.42. |
| Momentum | RSI near 51, stochastic near 8% | The 14-day RSI was near 51.13 on Barchart and 49.09 on StockAnalysis.com, neutral, while the 14-day stochastic near 8% is oversold, suggesting the short-term pullback may be maturing but is not yet confirmed to be over. |
| Trend Strength | ADX near 37.8 | The 20-day ADX near 37.8 with +DI near 26 above -DI near 19 on Barchart indicates a strong medium-term uptrend; the 100-day ADX near 14.7 is weaker, reflecting the long recovery from the 2025 lows. |
| Volume | About 2.7M to 2.9M shares | Barchart listed 20-day average volume near 2.75 million shares and StockAnalysis.com near 2.94 million on August 3, 2026, with the 5-day average near 1.94 million as trading thinned into the August 6 earnings report. |
| Volatility | Elevated into earnings | Barchart reported option-implied volatility near 70% versus 20-day historical volatility near 35.6%, and 14-day ATR near $0.40 or about 3.8% of price, so position sizing should account for larger swings around the August 6 report. |
| Beta | 1.12 - 1.20 | Barchart and MarketBeat report a 60-month beta near 1.12 to 1.14, while StockAnalysis reports 1.20; slightly more volatile than the overall market. |
| Invalidation | Close below $9.55 | A decisive close below the 50-day moving average near $9.55 to $9.61 would weaken the medium-term uptrend; a close below the 200-day near $7.44 would turn the long-term trend bearish. |
LFST AI trading strategy
The LFST AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework for trading and watching a growth turnaround ahead of the August 6, 2026 earnings report. It is not personal advice and should be paired with fresh chart data, filings, position sizing, and a defined invalidation level.
Watch for LFST to reclaim and hold its 20-day moving average near $10.94 on above-average volume, then build toward the $11.76 high, with the rising 50-day near $9.61 as the reference for the medium-term trend. If the stock instead pulls back further, a lower-risk trend entry zone is the $9.98 to $10.35 support cluster or the 50-day moving average near $9.60.
A daily close below the 50-day moving average near $9.55 to $9.61 should trigger a stop and review, and position size should stay small given the elevated volatility into the August 6 earnings report.
If LFST closes back above the $11.76 52-week high on meaningfully above-average volume, it may run toward the $13 to $15 analyst target zone. Wait for the confirmation close rather than entering on the way to the high.
Set a stop below the $10.73 first resistance turned support. Trail the stop as the position advances and take partial profits at $13.00 and $15.00.
Q2 2026 results are scheduled for August 6, 2026 before market open, with the consensus near $0.02 EPS on revenue near $415 million and company guidance of $405 million to $425 million. Monitor the raised 2026 revenue range of $1.640 billion to $1.680 billion and adjusted EBITDA guidance of $200 million to $220 million.
Option-implied volatility near 70% implies a large expected move, so avoid oversized positions through the report, define a maximum loss in advance, and do not average down without fresh fundamental confirmation.
Investment research summary
LifeStance operates one of the largest U.S. outpatient behavioral health networks, selling therapy, psychiatry, psychological testing, and telehealth to patients and their insurance plans. It grows by adding clinicians and centers, improving utilization and revenue per visit, and driving operating leverage as revenue outgrows corporate costs.
The moat is moderate and still being built. National scale, insurance network participation, a clinician recruitment and onboarding engine, brand recognition, and a hybrid in-person plus telehealth model create real but not dominant barriers. Patients can switch providers easily, and reimbursement ultimately depends on payers.
The thesis fails if clinician wages outpace reimbursement rates, payers reduce behavioral health coverage or rates, the company cannot scale its clinician base, utilization softens, or the heavy goodwill balance near $1.3 billion and lease obligations strain the balance sheet if growth stalls.
Dave Bourdon and the team have delivered a visible turnaround: FY2025 net income of $9.66 million, Q1 2026 net income of $14.2 million on 21% revenue growth, adjusted EBITDA up 48%, a raised 2026 revenue guide, and a $100 million buyback. Offsetting signals are $63.6 million of insider sales in the past three months and the May 2026 secondary offering of 35 million shares by selling stockholders.
Behavioral health is in a secular growth phase driven by rising demand, reduced stigma, and expanded insurance coverage, even as a clinician shortage creates both demand and a labor cost constraint. The S&P SmallCap 600 inclusion in May 2026 reflects the companys improved profile.
At $10.62 and $0.06 TTM EPS, LFST trades near 177x trailing earnings, but near 34x the 2026 adjusted EPS consensus of $0.31 and about 28.5x trailing free cash flow of $143 million. A three-scenario framework produces a bearish area near $6.50 to $8.50, a base near $10.50 to $12.50, and a bullish area near $13.50 to $15.00, so the current price offers limited margin of safety in the base case and meaningful downside if growth stalls.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Price | $10.62 at the August 3, 2026, 11:51 AM EDT reading, up 0.14 or 1.34% from the $10.48 July 31 close, within a day range near $10.47 to $10.80 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote | August 3, 2026 |
| Market Capitalization | $4.12 billion, verified as $10.62 times 387.83 million shares (0.03% deviation via financial_rigor.py) | StockAnalysis.com statistics and financial_rigor.py | August 3, 2026 |
| Shares Outstanding | 387.83 million | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM Revenue | $1.49 billion, up 16.5% year over year | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM Net Income | $23.2 million, cross-checked as FY2025 $9.66 million minus Q1 2025 $0.7 million plus Q1 2026 $14.24 million | StockAnalysis.com statistics and Q1 2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM EPS | $0.06 | StockAnalysis.com quote | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 Revenue | $403.5 million, up 21% year over year | Q1 2026 earnings release via GlobeNewswire (May 7, 2026) | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 Net Income | $14.2 million (diluted EPS $0.04) | Q1 2026 earnings release via GlobeNewswire | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | $51.1 million (12.7% of revenue), up 48% year over year | Q1 2026 earnings release via GlobeNewswire | August 3, 2026 |
| FY 2026 Revenue Guidance | $1.640 billion to $1.680 billion (raised) | Q1 2026 earnings release via GlobeNewswire | August 3, 2026 |
| FY 2026 Adjusted EBITDA Guidance | $200 million to $220 million | Q1 2026 earnings release via GlobeNewswire | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst Consensus and Price Target | Buy; average price target $12.00, median $13.00, high $15.00, low $9.00 (11 analysts) | StockAnalysis.com forecast (S&P Global and TipRanks), updated July 24, 2026 | August 3, 2026 |
| Recent Price Target Actions | BTIG to $15 (July 24), Canaccord to $13 (July 21), Jefferies maintains $14 (July 16), Barclays to $13 (July 14), KeyBanc to $13 (July 13) | TheFly via StockAnalysis.com news | August 3, 2026 |
| 52-Week Range | $3.74 - $11.76 | StockAnalysis.com quote | August 3, 2026 |
| Cash and Net Debt | Cash $194.8 million; net long-term debt $262.5 million as of March 31, 2026 | Q1 2026 earnings release balance sheet | August 3, 2026 |
| Insider Selling (3 Months) | $63.6 million sold, $0 bought | MarketBeat | August 3, 2026 |
| Short Interest | 9.46 million shares, 2.44% of shares outstanding, 2.27 days to cover | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
This LFST stock analysis is an AI-generated informational tool based on publicly available data as of August 3, 2026. It is not investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell securities, or a solicitation of any kind. Forecast scenarios are hypothetical estimates based on current data, analyst consensus, and AI modeling assumptions, and they may be materially wrong. The stock trades ahead of a Q2 2026 earnings report scheduled for August 6, 2026, so event risk is elevated. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Design trading strategies visually with 10+ indicators. Set entry/exit conditions and risk management, then generate Pine Script code with no coding required.
Filter and discover stocks based on market cap, dividend yield, P/E ratio, sector, and more. Screen thousands of stocks with real-time data.
Smart AI-driven stock selection with fundamental screening, analyst estimates, and key metrics. Filter by P/E, market cap, dividends, and more.
