Coca-Cola FEMSA, S.A.B. de C.V. research snapshot
KOF AI stock analysis as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff reads Coca-Cola FEMSA as a scaled, defensive beverage bottler with improving momentum. Q2 2026 volume rose 3.5%, revenue rose 4.7% to MXN 76.3 billion, gross margin expanded 180 basis points to 47.1%, and majority net income rose 16.9%, while the stock closed at $108.27 on July 31, 2026 with a market capitalization near $22.75 billion, re-verified as $108.27 times 210.08 million shares with 0.02% deviation across StockAnalysis.com quote and statistics pages. The Q2 2026 report, released July 27, 2026, showed record quarterly volumes in Brazil, Colombia, and Guatemala, with Mexico volume up 1% after tax-driven softness and management now guiding full-year Mexican volumes to roughly flat. The central question is whether resilient South America growth and margin expansion offset Mexico excise-tax pressure, currency exposure, and a valuation near 16.6x trailing earnings. This page presents a scenario framework, not a certain price prediction, and is for information only.
Current price
$108.27
Market cap
$22.75 billion
AI score
75 / 100
Rating
Durable bottler with improving momentum
Trend status
Constructive trend above the 20-day and 50-day moving averages
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | KOF is the largest Coca-Cola franchise bottler by sales volume, selling and distributing beverages across Mexico, Central America, Colombia, Brazil, Argentina, and Uruguay. | High |
| Moat | Exclusive territories, route density, bottling assets, retailer relationships, cold-drink execution, the Juntos+ digital platform, and Coca-Cola system brands support repeat demand and scale economics. | High |
| Management | Ian Craig leads KOF with Gerardo Cruz as CFO. Management is balancing pricing, productivity, capex, dividends, and debt while navigating Mexico excise-tax headwinds and volatile Latin American currencies. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue was MXN 291.75 billion and net income was MXN 23.85 billion. Q2 2026 volume rose 3.5%, revenue rose 4.7%, gross margin expanded 180 basis points, and majority net income rose 16.9%. | High |
| Valuation | Verified trailing valuation was about 16.61x EPS, 15.99x free cash flow per share, 2.79x book value, and a 4.12% dividend yield. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | KOF closed at $108.27 on July 31, 2026, above its 20-day moving average near $105.04 and its 50-day near $106.20, with 14-day RSI near 56.97 and a 52-week range of $80.23 to $116.36. | Medium |
| Risk level | Main risks are Mexico volume softness, excise taxes, currency, input costs, financing costs, debt, Coca-Cola system dependence, and valuation compression. | High |
| AI confidence | High for filings, annual financials, Q2 2026 results, market-cap math, and current operating risks. Forecast confidence is lower than data confidence. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. KOF has a durable operating franchise and improving momentum, but a durable business can still produce weak returns if volume, currency, leverage, or the valuation move against investors. | Medium |
KOF AI stock forecast
The KOF AI stock forecast uses three scenarios around the $108.27 July 31, 2026 close, not a guaranteed target. The model applies 9%, 5%, and minus 2% annual EPS growth with 19x, 17x, and 13x terminal multiples over three years, producing a bullish area near $160, a base area near $128, and a bearish area near $80. Mexico demand, excise taxes, currency, volume, pricing, margins, and the valuation multiple can change the outcome.
$150 to $170
More likely if Mexico volume stabilizes after the August pricing adjustment, South America keeps growing at double-digit volume rates, sugar and PET costs stay favorable, financing costs ease, and investors retain a high-teens earnings multiple.
$120 to $135
More likely if EPS compounds near 5%, pricing offsets normal cost inflation, Mexican volumes stay roughly flat, dividend payments remain covered, and the market holds KOF near 16x to 17x earnings.
$70 to $85
More likely if Mexico volume stays weak after pricing pass-through, taxes or regulation hurt affordability, currency and interest expense rise, margins compress, or the market rerates KOF toward a low-teens multiple.
KOF AI technical analysis
KOF AI technical analysis is constructive as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff. The stock closed at $108.27 on July 31, 2026, above its 20-day moving average near $105.04 and its 50-day near $106.20, with 14-day RSI near 56.97 and a 14-day ADX near 20 confirming a modest trend. A 52-week high of $116.36 remains overhead as the main resistance.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $108.27 | StockAnalysis.com quote at the July 31, 2026 close; market cap math uses 210.08 million shares outstanding. |
| Near support | $104 to $106 | The 20-day moving average was near $105.04 and the 50-day near $106.20 as of July 31, 2026, forming the first pullback zone. |
| Secondary support | $100 to $103 | The 100-day moving average was near $103.67, with the 200-day near $100.15, a support cluster for a deeper pullback. |
| Long-term support | $93 to $97 | Area below the moving-average cluster. A sustained break would weaken the longer price structure. |
| Near resistance | $113 to $116 | The 52-week high was $116.36. A move above that zone needs volume confirmation. |
| 50-day moving average | $106.20 | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com both reported the 50-day moving average near $106.20 on July 31, 2026. |
| 200-day moving average | $100.15 | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com both reported the 200-day trend line near $100.15, below the current price. |
| 100-day moving average | $103.67 | Barchart reported the 100-day moving average near $103.67 on July 31, 2026. |
| Momentum | RSI near 57, ADX near 20 | 14-day RSI was near 56.97, neutral, and 14-day ADX near 20.32, a modest trend rather than a strong one. |
| Volume | About 151,000 average shares | Barchart listed 20-day average volume near 151,705 and StockAnalysis.com near 151,743, useful for checking breakout quality. |
| Volatility | 14-day historical volatility near 30.6% | Barchart reported 14-day historical volatility near 30.58%, so position sizing should account for currency, tax, and earnings-driven swings. |
| Invalidation | Close below $103 | A decisive close below the 100-day moving average near $103.67 would weaken the short-term setup; a close below the 200-day near $100 would turn it bearish. |
KOF AI trading strategy
The KOF AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework, not personalized advice. It combines live technical confirmation with filing-backed business evidence, valuation discipline, position sizing, and clear invalidation points.
Watch for KOF to hold above the $104 to $106 support zone and to build volume on a move toward the $116.36 high, with the 200-day trend line near $100 still rising.
A daily close below the 20-day moving average near $105 or a failed attempt at the 52-week high should trigger a stop and review.
If KOF pulls back toward the $100 to $103 support cluster without new tax, currency, or earnings damage, compare the price reaction with Q2 results, Mexico pricing updates, and margin guidance before acting.
Do not average down without a maximum loss rule because excise-tax headlines or currency moves can turn a support zone into a value trap.
Track Q3 2026 results, unit-case volume, Mexico volume and pricing after the August adjustment, South America growth, gross margin, adjusted EBITDA, net debt, capex, dividends, and the shareholder-return review.
Reduce confidence if EPS growth depends mainly on buybacks or one-time insurance recoveries rather than organic demand and operating cash flow.
Investment research summary
Customers and retailers pay KOF to make, distribute, merchandise, and replenish branded ready-to-drink beverages at scale across Mexico, Central America, Colombia, Brazil, Argentina, and Uruguay. The value proposition is reliable availability, cold-drink execution, local routes, and a broad Coca-Cola system portfolio.
KOF benefits from exclusive Coca-Cola franchise territories, route density, bottling and warehouse assets, retailer relationships, the Juntos+ digital platform, and the Coca-Cola brand system. The company benefits from the brand but does not own it.
The thesis can fail if Mexican demand stays weak after pricing pass-through, sugar taxes raise affordability barriers, input costs outrun pricing, local currencies weaken, debt and financing costs rise, or a defensive multiple contracts.
Management is balancing pricing, productivity, capex, dividends, and debt while navigating Mexico excise-tax headwinds. The key test is whether capital spending and pricing choices preserve returns without weakening the franchise.
Ready-to-drink beverages are a large repeat-purchase category with long-term support from population, urbanization, convenience, and mix. Growth is steady rather than explosive and must coexist with health preferences, zero-sugar demand, taxes, packaging rules, and local macro conditions.
At about 16.6x trailing EPS and a 4.12% dividend yield, KOF is neither a distressed price nor an extreme premium. The margin of safety depends on whether improving South America momentum and stable cash generation offset Mexico, currency, tax, and leverage risks.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| KOF price | $108.27 at the July 31, 2026 close | StockAnalysis.com quote snapshot | August 2, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $22.75 billion, computed as $108.27 x 210.08 million shares outstanding with 0.02% deviation | StockAnalysis.com quote and share statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 210.08 million ADR-equivalent shares | StockAnalysis.com share statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | MXN 291.75 billion, cross-validated across StockAnalysis.com and the 2025 Form 20-F with 0.00% deviation | StockAnalysis.com financials and Coca-Cola FEMSA 2025 Form 20-F | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income | MXN 23.85 billion, cross-validated across StockAnalysis.com and the 2025 Form 20-F with 0.00% deviation | StockAnalysis.com financials and Coca-Cola FEMSA 2025 Form 20-F | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 consolidated results | Volume +3.5% to 1.1 billion unit cases, revenue +4.7% to MXN 76.3 billion, gross margin +180 bps to 47.1%, operating income +9.1%, adjusted EBITDA +12.1% to MXN 15 billion, majority net income +16.9% to MXN 6.2 billion | Coca-Cola FEMSA Q2 2026 earnings release and call, MarketBeat highlights | July 27, 2026 |
| Mexico Q2 2026 | Volume +1%, full-year Mexico now expected roughly flat, about 85% of tax and inflation passed through, August pricing adjustment planned | Coca-Cola FEMSA Q2 2026 earnings call | July 27, 2026 |
| South America Q2 2026 | Volume +6.9% to 426 million unit cases, revenue +11.8% to MXN 30.9 billion, operating income +46.5%; Brazil +5.2%, Colombia +17.7%, Guatemala +3.4%, Argentina -2.8% | Coca-Cola FEMSA Q2 2026 earnings call | July 27, 2026 |
| Hedging and capex | 2026 hedges of 65% PET, 96% sugar, 98% HFCS, and 73% aluminum; 2027 hedges of 80% sugar, 80% HFCS, and 54% aluminum; 2026 capex of 7% to 7.5% of revenue | Coca-Cola FEMSA Q2 2026 earnings call | July 27, 2026 |
| Valuation check | 16.61x EPS, 2.79x book value, 15.99x free cash flow, and 4.12% dividend yield | financial_rigor.py using StockAnalysis.com market inputs | August 2, 2026 |
| Balance sheet | Cash and equivalents $2.46 billion, total debt $5.36 billion, net cash of -$2.90 billion as of the latest reported quarter | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy with an average target of $118.34 across 14 analysts, low $105, median $120, high $133; recent updates include HSBC downgrade to Hold at $116, Barclays $115, JPMorgan $127, UBS $110 | StockAnalysis.com forecast | July 28, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 20-day SMA near $105.04, 50-day SMA near $106.20, 100-day SMA near $103.67, 200-day SMA near $100.15, 14-day RSI near 56.97, 14-day ADX near 20.32 | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com technical snapshots | July 31, 2026 |
This KOF AI stock analysis is an informational tool for research and education only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future performance. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available data as of August 2, 2026 and can be wrong.
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