Coca-Cola Europacific Partners plc research snapshot
CCEP AI stock analysis as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff reads Coca-Cola Europacific Partners as a high-quality consumer staples bottler with strong Coca-Cola system economics, exclusive territory scale, resilient cash generation, and a confirmed full-year outlook. The stock closed at $109.46 on July 31, 2026, with a market capitalization near $48.86 billion, re-verified as $109.46 times 448.65 million shares with a 0.51% acceptable variance. The Q1 2026 trading update, published April 28, 2026, showed revenue of EUR5,001 million, up 6.7% reported and 9.4% on a currency-neutral basis, total volume growth of 8.5%, comparable volume growth of 1.6%, a EUR0.82 interim dividend, and completion of EUR500 million of a EUR1 billion buyback, with full-year 2026 guidance reaffirmed. The main issue is the price paid: near the 52-week high of $113.67 at roughly 21x trailing EPS and a 2.18% dividend yield, the stock still offers a limited margin of safety, and H1 2026 results are due August 4, 2026. This page is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$109.46
Market cap
$48.86 billion
AI score
74 / 100
Rating
High-quality bottler, premium valuation near the 52-week high
Trend status
Bullish trend, but momentum cooled after the late-July run toward the 52-week high
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | CCEP makes, sells, and distributes Coca-Cola system brands and other beverages across Europe, Australia, New Zealand, Pacific markets, Indonesia, and the Philippines, with FY2025 revenue of EUR20.9 billion. | High |
| Moat | The moat is exclusive territory rights, local production and distribution scale, retailer relationships, route density, cold-drink execution, and the Coca-Cola brand system, though CCEP licenses rather than owns the core brand. | High |
| Management | Management delivered FY2025 operating profit of EUR2.79 billion and diluted EPS of EUR4.26, declared a EUR0.82 interim dividend, and advanced a EUR1 billion buyback program, but capital allocation must stay balanced with leverage and franchise reinvestment. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Revenue and profit improved. FY2025 revenue rose 2.27% to EUR20.9 billion, operating profit rose to EUR2.79 billion, and diluted EPS rose to EUR4.26; Q1 2026 revenue rose 6.7% reported and 9.4% currency-neutral with comparable volume up 1.6%. | High |
| Valuation | At the July 31, 2026 close, CCEP traded at about 21.4x trailing EPS, 20.8x forward EPS, 19.2x free cash flow, and a 2.18% dividend yield, a premium staples multiple with limited margin of safety. | Medium |
| Technical trend | The stock closed at $109.46 above its 200-day moving average with RSI near 61.6 and positive MACD, but about 3.7% below the 52-week high of $113.67 after momentum cooled from overbought early-July readings. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Main risks are Coca-Cola system dependence, consumer demand and volume, sugar taxes, packaging regulation, currency moves, input costs, leverage near 2.9x debt to EBITDA, the Suntory exit, and multiple compression near the 52-week high. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for business description, FY2025 financials, Q1 2026 trading update facts, market cap math, and core risks that cross-validated during the refresh. Lower for forward returns because H1 2026 results and FX can change the picture. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. CCEP is a durable operator, but the current price leaves limited room for slower growth, FX pressure, or a valuation reset. | Medium |
CCEP AI stock forecast
The CCEP AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the July 31, 2026 close of $109.46 and trailing EPS of about $5.00. The three-scenario framework produced a bearish area near $80, a base area near $110, and a bullish area near $139 over three years, using EPS growth of 2%, 5%, and 8% and exit multiples of 15x, 19x, and 22x. These are scenarios, not price commitments, and the August 4, 2026 H1 2026 results are the next catalyst.
$130 to $142
More likely if CCEP keeps positive comparable volume and currency-neutral revenue growth near 8% to 9%, zero-sugar and energy categories keep lifting mix, buybacks reduce shares, the Suntory exit headwind stays near 0.5%, and investors keep CCEP near a 20x to 22x earnings multiple.
$104 to $115
More likely if EPS compounds near 5%, FY2026 revenue growth lands near the 3% to 4% guidance, operating profit rises near the guided 7%, free cash flow stays above the EUR1.7 billion comparable target, and the stock holds near a 19x to 20x forward multiple.
$74 to $85
More likely if volume weakens, sugar or packaging taxes pressure margins, input costs rise, currency translation hurts results, the Suntory exit or Southeast Asia execution disappoints, leverage limits capital returns, or the market compresses the multiple toward the 15x area implied by the low analyst target near $90.
CCEP AI technical analysis
CCEP AI technical analysis starts from the $109.46 July 31, 2026 close. The stock sits above its 200-day moving average with the 50-day above the 200-day, RSI near 61.6 (neutral, down from overbought early-July readings), and positive MACD, but it pulled back about 3.7% from the July 52-week high of $113.67. Because this page does not fetch live market data, traders should confirm the latest price, volume, moving averages, and levels on a live chart before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $109.46 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote at the July 31, 2026 close; Markets Insider showed $109.47 on the same session. The 52-week range was $84.66 to $113.67. |
| Near resistance | $111 to $113.67 | The 52-week high zone, with minor overhead near the $110.81 July 31 day high and the $111.71 resistance that AltIndex identified from the last six months. |
| Near support | $106 to $108 | The 20-day moving-average zone. AltIndex placed the 20-day average near $106.60 at the cutoff, a natural first pullback area for the current trend. |
| Secondary support | $100 to $104 | The 50-day moving-average zone. StockAnalysis.com showed the 50-day near $100.72 and AltIndex near $103.60, so this is a zone rather than a single line. |
| Long-term support | $95 to $97 | The 200-day moving-average zone (StockAnalysis.com near $95.53, AltIndex near $97.10). A sustained break below it would challenge the longer uptrend. |
| Six-month support | $89.69 | AltIndex identified this as the support where CCEP bounced over the last six months; a break below would open a wider downside range. |
| 50-day moving average | About $100.72 to $103.60 | The two sources differ slightly; both are below the current price and above the 200-day average, keeping the trend structure bullish. |
| 200-day moving average | About $95.53 to $97.10 | The stock traded above the 200-day average at the cutoff, so the long-term trend remained positive. |
| Momentum | RSI near 61.6, MACD 1.8, Stochastic 87.8 | AltIndex showed RSI near 61.6 (neutral, down from overbought early-July readings), a positive MACD of 1.8, and a high Stochastic reading that argues against chasing without a plan. |
| Volume | About 1.9 million shares 20-day average | StockAnalysis.com listed 20-day average volume near 1.9 million shares; the July 31 session traded about 2.65 million shares. |
| Volatility | ATR near $1.10, beta 0.47 | AltIndex reported ATR(14) near $1.10; beta near 0.47 means CCEP tends to move less than the market, but earnings and FX news can still cause gaps. |
| Invalidation | Close below the 50-day, then the 200-day zone | A decisive close below the $100 to $104 area would reduce confidence in the current trend. A close below the $95 to $97 area would challenge the long-term trend. |
CCEP AI trading strategy
The CCEP AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework, not personalized advice. It combines filing-backed business evidence, technical confirmation, valuation discipline, the upcoming August 4, 2026 H1 2026 results, and clear invalidation levels.
Look for CCEP to hold above the $106 to $108 near-support area or to break the $111 to $113.67 resistance zone with better volume before treating momentum as confirmed.
Do not chase at the 52-week high without a defined stop. A failed breakout or a close below the 50-day moving-average zone should lower confidence.
If CCEP pulls back toward the $100 to $104 zone without a thesis break, compare the price with the August 4, 2026 H1 2026 results, comparable volume, free cash flow, dividend coverage, and net debt.
Do not average down solely because the business is defensive. Check FX, sugar-tax, packaging, and leverage risk before adding exposure.
Track the H1 2026 results, Europe and Asia Pacific volume, revenue per unit case, comparable operating profit, free cash flow versus the EUR1.7 billion comparable target, buyback pace, dividend growth, and net debt.
Lower confidence if volume weakens while valuation stays near a premium staples multiple, or if the August 4 report misses the guided operating profit path.
Investment research summary
CCEP gets paid to make, move, sell, and merchandise Coca-Cola system beverages and selected partner brands across local markets where availability, service, pricing, and cold-drink execution drive repeat purchases.
The moat is territory rights, route density, retailer access, local manufacturing scale, customer service routines, cold-chain execution, and the Coca-Cola brand system. CCEP benefits from the brand but does not fully own it, which is both a strength and a dependence.
The thesis can fail if Coca-Cola system economics shift against bottlers, consumers trade down or volume declines, sugar or packaging rules tighten, input costs rise, currency weakens, leverage limits buybacks, the Suntory exit or Southeast Asia execution disappoints, or investors stop paying a defensive premium.
Damian Gammell and the board have emphasized growth, productivity, dividends, and buybacks, and the FY2025 and Q1 2026 record is solid. Capital allocation looks shareholder friendly, but it must stay balanced against debt and reinvestment in the franchise.
Non-alcoholic ready-to-drink beverages remain a large repeat-purchase category. The long trend is stable rather than explosive, with growth tied to pricing, mix, zero-sugar products, energy drinks, away-from-home demand, and emerging market execution.
At roughly 21x trailing EPS, 19x free cash flow, and a 2.18% dividend yield near a 52-week high, CCEP is not priced like a distressed staples company. The margin of safety depends on steady compounding, disciplined leverage, FX stability, and not overpaying near technical highs.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| CCEP price | $109.46 at the July 31, 2026 close | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote | August 2, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $48.86 billion, computed as $109.46 x 448.65 million shares = $49.11 billion with 0.51% variance, within acceptable range | StockAnalysis.com quote and statistics, financial_rigor.py | August 2, 2026 |
| 52-week range and beta | 52-week range of $84.66 to $113.67, beta near 0.47, 52-week price change of +10.29% | StockAnalysis.com quote and statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | EUR20,901 million, up 2.27% from EUR20,438 million, cross-checked across SEC EDGAR XBRL and StockAnalysis.com | CCEP Form 20-F XBRL (SEC EDGAR) and StockAnalysis.com | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 operating profit | EUR2,793 million operating profit from operations | CCEP Form 20-F XBRL (SEC EDGAR) | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 profit after tax and net income | Profit after tax of EUR1,979 million and net income attributable to owners of EUR1,942 million | CCEP Form 20-F XBRL (SEC EDGAR) | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 diluted EPS | EUR4.26 diluted earnings per share | CCEP Form 20-F XBRL (SEC EDGAR) | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 free cash flow | Operating cash flow of EUR2,953 million less capital expenditure of EUR750 million gives free cash flow of EUR2,203 million | CCEP Form 20-F XBRL (SEC EDGAR) and StockAnalysis.com | August 2, 2026 |
| Net debt proxy | Total debt of EUR10,694 million less cash and investments of EUR957 million implies net debt of about EUR9.7 billion, about 2.9x EBITDA on the StockAnalysis.com ratio | StockAnalysis.com financials and SEC EDGAR XBRL | August 2, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 trading update | Revenue of EUR5,001 million, up 6.7% reported and 9.4% currency-neutral, total volume up 8.5% (970 million unit cases), comparable volume up 1.6% | CCEP Q1 2026 trading update coverage (Grafa) | April 28, 2026 |
| FY2026 guidance | Revenue growth of 3% to 4%, operating profit increase of about 7%, and comparable free cash flow of at least EUR1.7 billion, reaffirmed in the Q1 2026 trading update | CCEP Q1 2026 trading update coverage (Grafa) | April 28, 2026 |
| Interim dividend and buyback | Interim dividend of EUR0.82 per share declared April 28, 2026 and paid May 27, 2026; EUR500 million of the EUR1 billion buyback program completed | CCEP Q1 2026 trading update coverage (Grafa) | April 28, 2026 |
| Valuation check | PE 21.43, forward PE 20.83, PB 5.01, P/FCF 19.23, PS 1.99, EV/EBITDA 14.16, EV/FCF 23.88, dividend yield 2.18%, earnings yield 4.67%, FCF yield 5.20% | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Dividend profile | Annual dividend of $2.39 per share (2.18% yield), dividend growth of 6.70% year over year, payout ratio of 47.80%, five years of dividend growth | StockAnalysis.com statistics and dividends | August 2, 2026 |
| Share statistics | 448.65 million shares outstanding, shares down 1.09% year over year, insider ownership 0.14%, institutional ownership 34.36% | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Short interest | 6.47 million shares short, 4.44% of shares outstanding, 3.42 days to cover | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy rating across 12 analysts, average price target of $108.40 with a low of $95.61, a median of $111.43, and a high of $115.38 | StockAnalysis.com forecast | July 28, 2026 |
| Analyst actions, July 2026 | Bank of America to Hold with target raised to $113 from $105 (July 28, 2026), Barclays Buy with target raised to $114 from $108 (July 21, 2026), Wells Fargo Buy with target raised to $115 from $110 (July 8, 2026), Deutsche Bank Buy at $113, UBS Buy at $109 | StockAnalysis.com forecast latest forecasts | July 28, 2026 |
| Analyst rating mix, 2026 | Strong Buy 7, Buy 1, Hold 4, Sell 0 across 12 analysts as of July 2026 | StockAnalysis.com forecast recommendation trends | July 28, 2026 |
| Consensus estimates | FY2026 revenue estimate of EUR21.53 billion with EPS of EUR4.46; FY2027 revenue of EUR22.34 billion with EPS of EUR4.88 | StockAnalysis.com forecast financial forecast | July 28, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | RSI near 61.6, MACD 1.8, Stochastic 87.8, 50-day average near $103.60, 200-day average near $97.10, support $89.69, resistance $111.71, ATR near $1.10 | AltIndex technical snapshot | August 2, 2026 |
| Next earnings | H1 2026 results scheduled for Tuesday, August 4, 2026 before market open | StockAnalysis.com quote | August 2, 2026 |
This CCEP AI stock analysis is an informational research tool, not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future return. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available filings, quote snapshots, trading updates, and third-party data as of the stated cutoff date. They may be wrong, incomplete, or outdated after new results, currency moves, regulation, or market changes. CCEP reports H1 2026 results on August 4, 2026.
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