Jack Henry & Associates, Inc. research snapshot
JKHY AI stock analysis currently reads Jack Henry & Associates as a profitable financial technology infrastructure company serving community and regional banks, credit unions, and corporate clients. The stock closed at $154.04 on July 31, 2026, and market cap math verified about $10.94 billion using 71.05 million shares outstanding. The business case is supported by 8.0% fiscal year-to-date revenue growth through March 31, 2026, a third fiscal quarter with 8.7% revenue growth and 17 competitive core-processing wins, sticky client relationships, cloud migration, faster payments growth, strong free cash flow, and a fresh five million share buyback authorization. The caution is that JKHY still trades below its 200-day moving average near $159.38, fourth quarter fiscal 2026 results are scheduled for August 18, 2026, and the JKHY AI stock forecast should be treated as a range of outcomes rather than a price promise.
Current price
$154.04
Market cap
$10.94 billion verified market cap
AI score
70 / 100
Rating
High-quality bank technology compounder with sticky clients, strong cash generation, a moderate valuation, fresh core-processing wins, and a 200-day moving average still above the price
Trend status
Short-term uptrend above the 50-day average after a July rebound, but still below the 200-day average near $159 and more than 20% under the January 2026 high
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Jack Henry sells core processing, payments, digital banking, cloud hosting, and complementary software to roughly 7,400 financial institution and corporate clients, with 17 competitive core wins in its Q3 fiscal 2026 quarter. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from switching costs, regulated workflows, uptime needs, long implementation cycles, product breadth, and trust with community banks and credit unions. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO Gregory Adelson is steering a mature fintech infrastructure business through cloud migration, payments growth, margin control, buybacks, and dividends, with Matt Flanigan set to become Board Chair after David Foss retires. | Medium |
| Financial trend | Fiscal 2025 revenue rose 7.2% to $2.375 billion and net income rose 19.4% to $455.75 million. TTM revenue reached $2.516 billion, and fiscal 2026 year-to-date revenue through March 31 rose 8.0% to $1.900 billion with EPS of $5.41. | High |
| Valuation | At $154.04, audited math shows about 21.5x TTM EPS, 5.1x book value, 15.0x free cash flow per share, 4.35x revenue per share, and a 1.58% dividend yield. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | Technical signals improved through late July, with price above the 50-day average near $140.07 and RSI near 58, but the 200-day average near $159.38 remains major resistance. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is moderate. The balance sheet has limited debt, but the thesis can be hurt by bank consolidation, deconversions, a Q4 fiscal 2026 miss on August 18, pricing pressure, cloud execution costs, and a renewed break below support. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive data confidence is high. Return confidence is lower because the bull case needs sustained mid-single-digit to high-single-digit growth and a valuation multiple that does not compress. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | JKHY screens as a quality compounder at a fair but not obviously distressed valuation. Certainty improves if Q4 fiscal 2026 results meet or beat guidance while the stock reclaims the 200-day average. | Medium |
JKHY AI stock forecast
The JKHY AI stock forecast uses the $154.04 price reference, TTM EPS near $7.16, analyst consensus near $185.71, and a three-year earnings multiple framework. The audited model produced a bearish value near $114, a base value near $178, and a bullish value near $235 before dividends. These are scenario ranges, not price promises.
$215 to $235
More likely if fiscal 2026 revenue lands near or above the top of the $2,521 million to $2,533 million guidance range, Q4 fiscal 2026 results on August 18 deliver on cloud, digital, card, and faster payments growth, competitive core wins keep mounting, margins expand, and the market awards JKHY a premium low-20s earnings multiple.
$170 to $185
More likely if JKHY compounds EPS at a mid-single-digit to high-single-digit pace, keeps client retention strong, offsets deconversion revenue, and trades near 20x forward earnings with dividend support, broadly consistent with the roughly $185.71 analyst consensus price target.
$108 to $120
More likely if Q4 fiscal 2026 results disappoint, bank M&A accelerates client losses, cloud migration costs pressure margins, payments growth slows, deconversion revenue quality is discounted, or the stock is re-rated toward a mid-teens earnings multiple.
JKHY AI technical analysis
JKHY AI technical analysis uses market and technical data available at the August 2, 2026 cutoff. StockAnalysis showed a July 31, 2026 closing price of $154.04 and a $10.94 billion market cap. StockAnalysis statistics showed RSI near 58.22, a 50-day moving average near $140.07, a 200-day moving average near $159.38, and average daily volume near 1.11 million shares. The setup is a short-term uptrend working inside a longer-term repair process ahead of Q4 fiscal 2026 earnings on August 18, 2026.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $154.04 | July 31, 2026 StockAnalysis closing price reference used for market cap verification. |
| Immediate support | $149 to $152 | This zone includes the late July consolidation area and the rebound support that bulls need to defend into the August 18 earnings report. |
| Moving average support | $140.07 | StockAnalysis reported the 50-day moving average near this level at the August 2, 2026 data cutoff. |
| Deeper support | $135 to $138 | The area between the 50-day average and the prior volume support becomes a lower tactical support zone if the rebound fades. |
| Near resistance | $158 to $160 | A close above this zone would show follow-through toward the long-term trend repair level. |
| Major resistance | $159.38 to $165 | The 200-day moving average near $159.38 is the key longer-term trend repair level, with $165 as the next confirmation zone. |
| Momentum | RSI near 58.22 | Momentum is constructive and not yet overbought, so follow-through above resistance remains possible but needs earnings confirmation. |
| Volume | 1.02 million shares on July 31 | StockAnalysis showed July 31 volume near 1.02 million versus average daily volume near 1.11 million shares. |
| Volatility | 52-week high near $193.39 | StockAnalysis reported the stock remained about 20% below its January 2026 high after the July rebound, with a 52-week range near $121.04 to $193.39. |
| Invalidation | Close below $140 | A decisive break back below the 50-day moving average would weaken the short-term trend-following setup ahead of the August 18 earnings report. |
JKHY AI trading strategy
The JKHY AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It connects trend levels with Q4 fiscal 2026 earnings risk, bank technology demand, deconversion revenue, cloud migration, payments volume, buybacks, dividend coverage, and earnings revisions.
Watch for JKHY to hold the $149 to $152 support area, move through $158 to $160 on steady volume, and then confirm above the 200-day moving average near $159.38 while Q4 fiscal 2026 results confirm cloud, digital, card, and faster payments growth.
A close below $140, a fiscal 2026 guidance cut, or weaker client migration commentary should reduce trend-following confidence.
If JKHY pulls back toward the 50-day average near $140.07 without a change in revenue, margin, cash flow, or client retention assumptions, compare the entry price with the audited base scenario and the stock own historical premium multiple.
Do not treat the pullback as cheap if bank consolidation, deconversion revenue, or competitive displacement worsens, and do not hold through the August 18 earnings report without a defined exit.
Track Q4 fiscal 2026 results on August 18, fiscal 2026 revenue guidance, services and support growth, processing revenue growth, cloud hosting migration, faster payments, card volume, operating margin, free cash flow, share repurchases, and dividend coverage.
Position sizing should reflect that JKHY is a quality infrastructure business, but not an assured compounder at any price, especially with an earnings catalyst pending.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Jack Henry because banks and credit unions need reliable, compliant, always-on systems for core processing, payments, digital banking, data, fraud, and operational workflows.
The moat is built from switching costs, regulatory complexity, uptime requirements, product breadth, integration depth, and a long operating record with community and regional financial institutions.
The thesis fails if client consolidation reduces the addressable base, cloud migration does not protect margins, Q4 fiscal 2026 results disappoint, bank technology budgets slow, modern challengers win modular workloads, or deconversion revenue masks weaker recurring quality.
Gregory Adelson became CEO in 2024 after long tenure inside Jack Henry. The capital allocation test is whether management balances cloud investment, disciplined buybacks, dividends, and product breadth without losing operating focus as Matt Flanigan becomes Board Chair.
Digital banking, real-time payments, fraud prevention, cloud hosting, AI security, and regulatory technology remain long-term needs for smaller financial institutions. The trend supports demand, but bank consolidation and vendor competition limit unchecked pricing power.
At $154.04, JKHY is not priced like a distressed stock. The margin of safety depends on durable high-single-digit revenue growth, high free cash flow conversion, analyst-consensus delivery near $185.71, and avoiding a multiple reset below the high-teens earnings range.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| JKHY quote reference | $154.04 closing stock price on July 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis JKHY market cap page | August 2, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $10.94 billion calculated from $154.04 x 71.05 million shares, with 0.04% variance versus reported market cap | financial_rigor.py and StockAnalysis | August 2, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 71.05 million shares outstanding, down about 0.66% year over year on buybacks | StockAnalysis statistics, S&P Global data | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM revenue and net income | TTM revenue of $2.516 billion, up 8.4%, and TTM net income of $519.15 million for the period ended March 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis financials and statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and net income | $2.375 billion revenue, up 7.21%, and $455.75 million net income, up 19.36%, for fiscal 2025 | StockAnalysis financials and Jack Henry FY2025 results release | August 2, 2026 |
| Q3 fiscal 2026 revenue and EPS | $636.2 million revenue, up 8.7%, and $1.71 diluted EPS for the fiscal three months ended March 31, 2026, with 17 competitive core wins | Jack Henry Q3 FY2026 results release | August 2, 2026 |
| Fiscal 2026 year-to-date revenue and EPS | $1.900 billion revenue, up 8.0%, and $5.41 diluted EPS for the nine months ended March 31, 2026 | Jack Henry Q3 FY2026 results release | August 2, 2026 |
| Fiscal 2026 full-year guidance | Revenue of $2,521 million to $2,533 million, GAAP operating margin of 24.7% to 24.9%, and GAAP EPS of $6.78 to $6.87 | Jack Henry Q3 FY2026 results release | August 2, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | $20.57 million cash and $136.59 million total debt at the latest balance sheet; credit facility debt was $90 million at March 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis statistics and Jack Henry Q3 FY2026 release | August 2, 2026 |
| Valuation math | 21.51x TTM EPS, 5.14x book value, 15.04x free cash flow per share, 4.35x revenue per share, and 1.58% dividend yield | financial_rigor.py valuation verification and StockAnalysis statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Technical indicators | RSI near 58.22, 50-day moving average near $140.07, and 200-day moving average near $159.38 | StockAnalysis statistics, S&P Global data | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus and price target | Buy rating from 16 analysts with a $185.71 average price target, ranging from $158 to $208 | StockAnalysis forecast | August 2, 2026 |
| Dividend and buybacks | Annual dividend of $2.44 per share with 36 years of dividend growth, plus a five million share buyback authorization added in May 2026 | StockAnalysis statistics and Jack Henry buyback release | August 2, 2026 |
| Client base and business scope | Approximately 7,400 banks, credit unions, and diverse corporate entities served by Jack Henry solutions | Jack Henry Q3 FY2026 results release | August 2, 2026 |
This JKHY AI stock analysis page is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell Jack Henry & Associates securities. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data, audited calculations, and assumptions that can be wrong, including the upcoming Q4 fiscal 2026 earnings report scheduled for August 18, 2026. Always do your own research and consider speaking with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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