Itron Inc research snapshot
ITRI AI stock analysis currently reads Itron as a mid-cap technology platform serving the global utility industry with smart metering, grid edge intelligence, IoT connectivity, and data analytics software. The company benefits from long-term secular trends in grid modernization, distributed energy resource management, smart city infrastructure, and water conservation. Q1 2026 results beat analyst estimates with revenue of $586.98 million and EPS of $1.49, while management raised full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance. The stock trades at about 13.6x TTM earnings and 1.67x sales, which is historically reasonable for a business with improving margins, positive free cash flow, and multi-year utility procurement cycles. The main risk is that utility spending is project-driven and lumpy, competition in networking and software is intensifying, and the stock has declined 37% over the past year despite solid operational execution. This page is informational research, not investment advice.
Current price
$85.10
Market cap
$3.77 billion calculated from $85.10 x 44.34 million shares
AI score
68 / 100
Rating
Smart metering, grid infrastructure, and IoT technology platform benefiting from global utility modernization
Trend status
Below the 52-week high of $142.00 and above the 52-week low of $77.77, with a 37% decline from the year-ago level
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Itron provides hardware, software, and services for electricity, gas, and water utilities globally. Revenue is split across Device Solutions (meters, modules), Networked Solutions (communications, IoT), Outcomes (analytics, SaaS), and Resiliency Solutions. The business has recurring elements from software, services, and replacement cycles. | High |
| Moat | The moat is moderate and built from utility customer relationships, multi-year certification and qualification cycles, installed base of millions of deployed devices, communication protocol expertise, and domain knowledge. Competition from Badger Meter, ESCO Technologies, Trimble, and larger industrial firms limits pricing power. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO Tom Deitrich has led the company since 2019 and overseen the Silver Spring Networks integration, shift toward Outcomes software and services, and margin improvement. Management has guided for adjusted EBITDA growth in FY2026 and demonstrated capital allocation discipline with sequential balance sheet improvement. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | TTM revenue of about $2.35 billion with TTM net income of $289 million and TTM levered free cash flow of $301 million. Q1 2026 revenue grew 1.7% year-over-year reported and EPS of $1.49 beat consensus. Gross margins have been stable in the high 30% range with operating margin improvement. | High |
| Valuation | At $85.10, ITRI trades at about 13.6x TTM GAAP EPS, 12.5x TTM free cash flow, 2.35x book value, and 1.67x sales. The PEG ratio is 0.76 using 5-year expected growth, suggesting reasonable valuation relative to growth. The three-scenario model estimates $171 (bull, 15% growth, 18x PE), $110 (base, 8% growth, 14x PE), and $66 (bear, 2% growth, 10x PE) over 3 years. | High |
| Technical trend | Latest snapshots showed price at $85.10 with a 52-week range of $77.77 to $142.00. The stock is 40% below the 52-week high, RSI is near oversold territory at approximately 35, and beta is 1.32. Average volume of around 662,000 shares daily. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is medium-high. Utility spending cycles, project timing, competition, technology disruption, interest rate sensitivity for utility customers, commodity cost exposure in hardware, and the 37% one-year stock decline all warrant attention. Debt-to-equity near 98% adds financial leverage risk. | High |
| AI confidence | High for reported financial and operational data. Medium for forward revenue and margin predictions given project-based revenue, utility budget cycles, and competitive dynamics. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium. The business serves real utility modernization needs with recurring elements, but utility budget timing, competition, technology shifts, and the recent share price decline introduce uncertainty about near-term returns. | Medium |
ITRI AI stock forecast
The ITRI AI stock forecast uses a three-scenario framework based on the financial_rigor.py model and current valuation. Using $6.26 TTM EPS, three-year annual growth assumptions of 15%, 8%, and 2%, and exit PE multiples of 18x, 14x, and 10x, the model produces target prices of $171.40, $110.40, and $66.40 respectively. These are scenario estimates, not price predictions. The base case of 8% growth and 14x PE is supported by utility modernization demand, but the bear case reflects risks from spending pauses, competition, and margin compression.
$140 to $171
More likely if utility smart meter and grid modernization spending accelerates, Itron sustains 15%+ EPS growth through software and services expansion, margins continue to improve, and the market re-rates the stock toward 18x earnings. Analyst targets averaging $116 with highs of $136 support the direction of this scenario.
$100 to $120
More likely if utility spending follows normal procurement cycles, Itron delivers 8% EPS growth through steady meter deployments, software attach rates increase gradually, and the stock trades near 14x earnings. This aligns with the consensus analyst average target of $116.
$60 to $80
More likely if utility capital budgets are delayed or cut, competition from larger players intensifies, gross margins compress from hardware cost inflation, or the company loses a key customer contract. The Raymond James sell-side target of $65 represents the most pessimistic analyst view.
ITRI AI technical analysis
ITRI AI technical analysis shows a stock in a downtrend from its 52-week high of $142.00, now trading at $85.10 as of the July 12, 2026 data cutoff. Google Finance and Yahoo Finance snapshots indicate the stock has declined approximately 37% over the past year. The 52-week low of $77.77 provides a downside reference while the 200-day moving average is estimated in the $95-$105 range based on the trend. RSI is likely in the mid-30s, approaching oversold. Volume at 662,000 daily average is consistent with mid-cap liquidity.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $85.10 | Yahoo Finance closing price for July 10, 2026. The stock was up 4.41% in after-hours trading at $88.85. |
| 52-week low | $77.77 | The lowest price in the past 52 weeks. A break below this level would represent a new low and potentially trigger further selling. |
| Key support | $80.00 to $82.00 | Round-number support near $80 with potential accumulation interest from value-oriented investors at these multi-year low valuation levels. |
| Near resistance | $90.00 to $95.00 | The $90 round number and the area around the estimated 50-day moving average represent initial overhead supply. |
| Upper resistance | $100.00 to $105.00 | The psychological $100 level and the estimated 200-day moving average form the next resistance zone. |
| 52-week high | $142.00 | The highest price in the past 52 weeks. A recovery to this level would require a 67% rally from the current price. |
| Momentum | RSI approximately 35 | Estimated RSI in the mid-30s based on the recent decline from $95-$100 levels, approaching oversold territory. |
| Volume | About 662,000 shares average daily | Consistent with mid-cap liquidity. Volume may spike on earnings announcements or utility contract wins. |
| Volatility | Beta 1.32 | ITRI has above-market beta, meaning it tends to move more than the broad market in both directions. This adds to both upside and downside risk. |
| Invalidation | Close below $77.77 52-week low | A break below the 52-week low would weaken the technical picture significantly and suggest further downside toward $70-$75. |
ITRI AI trading strategy
The ITRI AI trading strategy is a framework for a mid-cap utility technology stock with secular growth drivers, project-based revenue, high beta, and a meaningful recent price decline. It is not personal advice. Any approach should account for position sizing, earnings dates, utility contract announcements, and the risk of extended drawdowns in a high-beta name.
Watch for a confirmed base above $80 with increasing volume, followed by a close above the estimated 50-day moving average near $90-$92. A breakout above $95 with volume would confirm a trend reversal. The long-term trend is down from $142, so patience is required.
Do not treat a single-day bounce as a trend reversal. The stock has fallen 37% over one year and may take time to form a durable bottom. Use a stop below the 52-week low of $77.77.
If ITRI approaches the $80 area with oversold RSI readings below 30 and no negative company-specific news, a mean-reversion bounce toward $90-$95 may develop. Monitor volume for confirmation and utility sector sentiment for context.
A close below $77.77 invalidates the mean-reversion setup. Mean-reversion in a downtrend carries above-average risk of catching a falling knife. Position size accordingly.
Track quarterly order backlog, utility contract announcements, segment-level revenue mix (especially Outcomes software growth), gross margin trends, adjusted EBITDA guidance, free cash flow conversion, net debt reduction, and management commentary on the utility spending environment.
Reduce exposure if order growth decelerates, margins contract, management lowers guidance, or utility capital spending shows broad-based weakness. Monitor insider buying and selling patterns for additional signals.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Itron for the hardware, communications, and software needed to measure, manage, and analyze energy and water consumption. Its meters, modules, network infrastructure, and analytics software help utilities reduce operational costs, improve grid reliability, comply with regulatory mandates, enable demand response, and engage with end customers through usage data.
The moat is built from decades of utility relationships, proprietary communication protocols, certified meter designs, an installed base of millions of devices, switching costs from network integration and software lock-in, and regulatory compliance knowledge. The moat is real but moderate because competitors like Badger Meter, ESCO Technologies, Aclara (Hubbell), Landis+Gyr, and larger industrial IoT platforms offer overlapping capabilities.
The thesis fails if utility capital spending enters a sustained downturn, regulatory mandates for smart metering are delayed or reversed, technology shifts (e.g., BYOD networking, edge computing) bypass Itron's hardware-centric model, competition from larger technology companies with deeper resources intensifies, gross margins compress from commodity costs or pricing pressure, or the debt load becomes restrictive in a rising rate environment.
CEO Tom Deitrich has led Itron since 2019, previously serving as COO. Key decisions include the Silver Spring Networks acquisition, the shift toward Outcomes software and managed services, and the acquisitions of Comverge, SELC, and Elpis Squared. Management has focused on margin expansion, free cash flow generation, and balance sheet improvement. The test is whether they can sustain growth while navigating utility budget cycles and competitive pressure.
The strongest long-term trends are grid modernization driven by renewable integration, electric vehicle charging infrastructure, distributed energy resource management, aging infrastructure replacement, water conservation, and smart city initiatives. These trends are multi-decade and largely independent of short-term economic cycles. However, utility procurement is project-driven and subject to regulatory approval cycles, creating lumpy revenue patterns.
At $85.10, ITRI trades at 13.6x TTM GAAP EPS, 12.5x TTM free cash flow, and 1.67x revenue. The PEG ratio of 0.76 suggests the valuation is low relative to expected growth. The three-scenario model produces a base case of $110.40 (29.7% upside) using 8% growth and 14x PE. The margin of safety is reasonable but not wide, given the project-based revenue profile and competitive risks.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| ITRI reference price | $85.10 closing price on July 10, 2026 | Yahoo Finance historical prices and Google Finance | July 12, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $3.77 billion calculated from $85.10 x 44.34 million shares; verified by Google Finance and Yahoo Finance with 0.09% deviation | Pineify financial_rigor.py, Yahoo Finance, and Google Finance | July 12, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 44.34 million shares | Google Finance and Yahoo Finance statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Enterprise value | $4.66 billion | Yahoo Finance statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM revenue (last 4 quarters) | Approximately $2.35 billion ($606.76M + $581.62M + $571.66M + $586.98M) | Google Finance quarterly income statement | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM net income | Approximately $289 million ($68.34M + $65.61M + $101.63M + $53.46M) | Google Finance quarterly income statement and Yahoo Finance | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM GAAP diluted EPS | $6.26 | Yahoo Finance statistics and Google Finance | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 results | $586.98 million revenue (beat estimate of $572.14M), $1.49 EPS (beat estimate of $1.24), $85.76 million EBITDA | Google Finance earnings summary and Yahoo Finance | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM levered free cash flow | $300.84 million | Yahoo Finance statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Balance sheet | $712.85 million total cash, Debt/Equity ratio of 98.35%, estimated net debt of approximately $865 million | Yahoo Finance statistics and Google Finance | July 12, 2026 |
| Valuation snapshot | About 13.6x TTM GAAP EPS, 12.5x TTM FCF, 2.35x book value, 1.67x sales, PEG ratio of 0.76 | Yahoo Finance statistics, Google Finance, and Pineify financial_rigor.py | July 12, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Average 12-month target $116.00 (range $65-$136), 6 Buy, 1 Hold, 1 Sell from 8 analysts | Google Finance analyst ratings | July 12, 2026 |
| 52-week price range | $77.77 to $142.00 | Yahoo Finance and Google Finance | July 12, 2026 |
| Beta and volatility | Beta 1.32, average daily volume approximately 662,000 shares | Yahoo Finance statistics and Google Finance | July 12, 2026 |
| Management and employees | CEO Thomas L. Deitrich (since 2019), approximately 5,000 employees, founded 1977, headquartered in Liberty Lake, Washington | Google Finance profile and Yahoo Finance profile | July 12, 2026 |
This ITRI AI stock analysis page is an informational tool only and is not investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Forecast scenarios are based on available data as of July 12, 2026 and may be wrong if utility spending changes, competitive dynamics shift, technology disruption occurs, or broader market conditions alter the valuation framework.
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