Itron Inc research snapshot
ITRI AI stock analysis currently reads Itron as a mid-cap technology platform that helps utilities and cities manage energy, water, and grid infrastructure. On July 28, 2026 Itron reported Q2 2026 results with a record adjusted gross margin of 41.4%, non-GAAP EPS of $1.59 versus the $1.29 consensus estimate, and a raised full year 2026 EPS outlook of $6.30 to $6.50. Annual recurring revenue grew 21% to $417 million and total backlog stayed near $4.4 billion, and the stock jumped about 20% in the week after the report to roughly $101. At that price ITRI trades at about 16.9x trailing earnings, 15.9x forward earnings, and 1.92x sales, which is higher than its valuation in early July 2026. The main risks are that Q2 revenue fell 7% year over year, GAAP net income declined, the balance sheet carries about $856 million of net debt, short interest is near 14% of shares outstanding, and the stock remains roughly 29% below its 52-week high of $142.00. This page is informational research, not investment advice, and uses an August 3, 2026 data cutoff.
Current price
$101.37
Market cap
$4.44 billion calculated from $101.37 x 43.79 million shares, verified by financial_rigor.py with a 0.02% deviation
AI score
72 / 100
Rating
Utility and grid infrastructure platform with a record gross margin, raised FY2026 EPS guidance, and growing recurring software and services revenue
Trend status
At $101.37 after a roughly 20% one-week rebound, above the 200-day moving average near $94.47 but still about 29% below the 52-week high of $142.00
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Itron sells meters, communication networks, software, and managed services to electricity, gas, and water utilities. Revenue spans Device Solutions, Networked Solutions, Outcomes, and Resiliency Solutions. The mix is shifting toward recurring software and services, with annual recurring revenue up 21% to $417 million in Q2 2026 and adjusted gross margin at a record 41.4%. | High |
| Moat | Moderate moat from utility relationships, certified hardware, proprietary communication protocols, an installed base of millions of deployed devices, regulatory compliance knowledge, and switching costs embedded in network integration. Badger Meter, ESCO Technologies, Landis+Gyr, Aclara (Hubbell), and larger industrial technology firms compete across most product lines. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO Tom Deitrich has led Itron since 2019. Q2 2026 delivered a record gross margin, an EPS beat, and a raised full year EPS outlook, evidence of operating discipline and margin execution. Management built the software and services portfolio through Silver Spring Networks, Urbint, and Locusview while keeping a no-dividend policy and only modest buybacks. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | TTM revenue is about $2.30 billion and TTM net income is about $274 million. FY2025 revenue declined 3% to $2.37 billion while net income rose 26% to $301 million. Q2 2026 revenue fell 7% year over year but adjusted gross margin hit a record 41.4%, adjusted EBITDA rose 8% to $97 million, and free cash flow was $81 million. | High |
| Valuation | At $101.37, ITRI trades at 16.90x trailing EPS, 15.85x forward EPS, 1.92x sales, 2.70x book value, and 11.50x free cash flow. The three-scenario model estimates about $164 (bull, 15% growth, 18x PE), $113 (base, 8% growth, 15x PE), and $70 (bear, 2% growth, 11x PE) over three years, with a PEG ratio of 0.88 on 5-year expected growth. | High |
| Technical trend | After a roughly 20% one-week rebound from near $85, the stock is at $101.37, above its 50-day moving average of $85.04 and 200-day moving average of $94.47. RSI of 67.59 is approaching overbought. The move is a trend-change attempt, but the stock is still about 29% below the $142.00 52-week high. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is medium-high. Q2 revenue fell 7% year over year, net debt is about $856 million with a debt-to-equity ratio near 98%, short interest is near 14% of shares outstanding, utility spending is project-driven and lumpy, and competition plus technology shifts add uncertainty. The one-week surge also raises near-term pullback risk. | High |
| AI confidence | High for reported financials, guidance, analyst targets, valuation math, and dated technical indicators. Medium for forward revenue and margin predictions given utility procurement timing, project deployments, and competitive dynamics. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium. The margin and cash flow trajectory has improved and guidance was raised, but revenue is still shrinking, the stock just repriced sharply higher, and utility budget timing plus competition keep near-term certainty modest. | Medium |
ITRI AI stock forecast
The ITRI AI stock forecast is a three-scenario framework, not a price promise. Using the August 3, 2026 reference price of $101.37 and TTM EPS of $6.00, the financial_rigor.py model projects $164.30 in a 15% annual EPS growth and 18x P/E case, $113.40 in an 8% growth and 15x P/E case, and $70.00 in a 2% growth and 11x P/E case over three years. The base case reflects continued margin expansion with modest volume growth, the bull case assumes faster grid and AI-related time-to-power demand, and the bear case reflects a utility spending pause or a margin reversal.
$145 to $165
More likely if grid modernization and AI-driven time-to-power demand accelerate, Itron resumes revenue growth while sustaining record gross margins, recurring revenue keeps rising, and the market holds a 18x or higher multiple. Seaport and Roth MKM targets of $150 and $136 plus the Google Finance average target of $131.57 support this direction.
$100 to $120
More likely if utility spending follows normal procurement cycles, Itron delivers about 8% annual EPS growth through margin expansion and steady deployments, ARR continues to grow, and the stock trades near 15x earnings. This aligns with the StockAnalysis consensus average target of $129.60 on a forward basis.
$60 to $75
More likely if utility capital budgets are delayed or cut, revenue keeps declining, gross margins compress from mix or competitive pricing, the AI time-to-power cycle fades, or higher rates pressure the balance sheet. The Raymond James sell-side target of $65 and the 52-week low of $77.77 frame this scenario.
ITRI AI technical analysis
ITRI AI technical analysis shows a stock that fell from a $142.00 52-week high to a $77.77 low during 2026, then jumped roughly 20% in one week after the July 28, 2026 Q2 earnings report. As of August 3, 2026 the price is $101.37, above the 50-day moving average of $85.04 and the 200-day moving average of $94.47, with RSI at 67.59 approaching overbought. The rebound is a clear trend-change attempt, but the stock remains below its late-2025 highs and needs to hold the moving averages to confirm the turn.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $101.37 | StockAnalysis real-time price for August 3, 2026. Google Finance shows $101.64 in the same session and Yahoo Finance closed at $99.66 on July 31, 2026. |
| Key support | $94.00 to $95.50 | The 200-day moving average is near $94.47. A successful retest and hold of this zone would keep the post-earnings trend change intact. |
| Secondary support | $84.50 to $86.00 | The 50-day moving average is near $85.04 and this area was the pre-earnings price base. Losing it would point back toward the 52-week low. |
| Near resistance | $102.00 to $105.00 | The August 3 session high of $102.04 and the round $105 level form the first overhead supply after the surge. |
| Upper resistance | $115.00 to $120.00 | The analyst target cluster, including the $117 J.P. Morgan target, marks the next major resistance zone above $105. |
| 52-week high | $142.00 | The highest price in the past 52 weeks. Recovering to this level would require about a 40% rally from the current price. |
| Momentum | RSI approximately 68 | StockAnalysis shows RSI of 67.59, approaching overbought after the one-week surge. A reset below 55 on a pullback would be a healthier setup. |
| Volume | About 1.05 million shares average daily | The 20-day average volume is 1,046,251 shares. Volume spiked on the earnings move, confirming institutional participation. |
| Volatility | Beta 1.32 | ITRI has above-market beta, meaning it tends to move more than the broad market in both directions. This adds to both upside and downside risk. |
| Invalidation | Close below $85.04 | A close below the 50-day moving average would weaken the breakout and suggest a return toward $78 to $80. A break below the $77.77 52-week low would signal major technical deterioration. |
ITRI AI trading strategy
The ITRI AI trading strategy is a framework for a high-beta utility technology stock that just repriced higher on margins and guidance. It is not personal advice. Any approach should account for position sizing, the July 28 earnings-driven gap, high short interest near 14%, and the risk that a one-week surge produces a sharp pullback before the trend is confirmed.
Watch for a pullback that holds above the 200-day moving average near $94.47, followed by a close above the $102 to $105 resistance zone on rising volume. A sustained move above $105 would confirm the post-earnings trend change. The long-term trend is still down from $142, so this is an early trend-change trade, not a mature uptrend.
Do not chase the gap without a pullback entry. A close below $85.04 (50-day moving average) invalidates the setup and points back toward $78 to $80. Keep position size small given beta of 1.32.
If ITRI pulls back to the 200-day moving average near $94 to $95 with RSI resetting below 55 and no negative company-specific news, a bounce toward $105 to $110 may develop. Monitor volume on the pullback and utility sector sentiment for confirmation.
A close below $85.04 invalidates the mean-reversion setup. Mean-reversion after a fast surge carries above-average risk of catching a falling knife, so size accordingly and use tight stops.
Track quarterly backlog of $4.4 billion, quarterly bookings, ARR growth of 21% year over year, adjusted gross margin, non-GAAP EPS against the raised $6.30 to $6.50 guidance, free cash flow conversion, net debt reduction, and management commentary on time-to-power and AI-related data center demand.
Reduce exposure if revenue declines accelerate, margins roll over, management cuts guidance, backlog keeps shrinking, or short interest builds further. Monitor insider transactions and the November 2026 earnings date for catalysts.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Itron for the hardware, communication networks, software, and services needed to measure, manage, and analyze energy and water use. Its meters, modules, network infrastructure, and analytics software help utilities run grids reliably, cut operating costs, meet regulatory mandates, support renewables and EV load, and manage data center time-to-power demand.
The moat is built from decades of utility relationships, certified meter designs, proprietary communication protocols, an installed base of millions of devices, switching costs from network integration and software lock-in, and regulatory compliance knowledge. It is real but moderate because Badger Meter, ESCO Technologies, Landis+Gyr, Aclara (Hubbell), and larger industrial IoT platforms offer overlapping capabilities.
The thesis fails if utility capital spending enters a sustained downturn, if AI and data center time-to-power demand proves cyclical rather than durable, if revenue keeps shrinking while gains depend on margins alone, if networking competition or bring-your-own-device models bypass Itron hardware, if the near $856 million net debt becomes restrictive in a rising-rate environment, or if the one-week rally overshoots what fundamentals justify.
CEO Tom Deitrich has led Itron since 2019. Key decisions include the Silver Spring Networks acquisition, the shift toward Outcomes software and managed services, and the newer Urbint and Locusview acquisitions. The record gross margin and raised FY2026 EPS outlook show execution focus, while the test is whether management can return revenue to growth while holding margins and cutting net debt.
The strongest long-term trends are grid modernization driven by renewable integration, EV charging infrastructure, distribution automation, water conservation, and the accelerating need for time-to-power to connect AI data centers. These trends are multi-year, but utility procurement remains project-driven and subject to regulatory approval cycles, which creates lumpy revenue patterns.
At $101.37, ITRI trades at 16.90x TTM EPS, 15.85x forward EPS, 1.92x sales, and 11.50x free cash flow. The three-scenario model produces a base case of about $113 using 8% growth and 15x, implying limited upside without stronger growth, and a bear case of about $70 that sits below the 52-week low. The margin of safety is narrower than it was in early July because the stock already repriced higher.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| ITRI reference price | $101.37 on August 3, 2026 (StockAnalysis), $101.64 on Google Finance, and $99.66 close on July 31, 2026 on Yahoo Finance | StockAnalysis.com, Google Finance, and Yahoo Finance | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $4.44 billion, verified by financial_rigor.py as $101.37 x 43.79 million shares with a 0.02% deviation from the reported figure | StockAnalysis.com and Pineify financial_rigor.py | August 3, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 43.79 million shares, down 0.87% year over year, with 43.01 million shares in the float | StockAnalysis.com share statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Enterprise value | $5.29 billion | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | About $2.30 billion ($581.62M + $571.66M + $586.98M + $562.90M for the trailing four quarters) | StockAnalysis.com and Google Finance | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM net income | About $274 million ($65.61M + $101.63M + $53.46M + $53.27M for the trailing four quarters) | StockAnalysis.com and Google Finance | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM GAAP diluted EPS | $6.00 per StockAnalysis.com and $5.98 per Yahoo Finance | StockAnalysis.com and Yahoo Finance | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 results | Revenue of $562.9 million, down 7% year over year; non-GAAP diluted EPS of $1.59 versus the $1.29 estimate; record adjusted gross margin of 41.4%, up 460 bps; adjusted EBITDA of $97 million, up 8%; free cash flow of $81 million; annual recurring revenue of $417 million, up 21% | Itron Q2 2026 earnings release and Google Finance | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2026 guidance (raised) | Revenue of $2.37 to $2.41 billion and non-GAAP diluted EPS of $6.30 to $6.50, raised from $5.75 to $6.25; Q3 2026 outlook of $590 to $600 million revenue and $1.50 to $1.60 non-GAAP EPS | Itron Q2 2026 earnings release and The Fly | August 3, 2026 |
| Backlog and recurring revenue | Total backlog of $4.4 billion at quarter end versus $4.5 billion a year earlier, with Q2 bookings of $550 million and annual recurring revenue of $417 million, up 21% | Itron Q2 2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM free cash flow | $385.38 million (operating cash flow of $410.74 million minus capital expenditures of $25.37 million); Yahoo Finance reports levered free cash flow of $295.26 million | StockAnalysis.com and Yahoo Finance | August 3, 2026 |
| Balance sheet | Cash of $745.23 million, total debt of $1.60 billion, net debt of about $856 million, equity book value of $1.64 billion at $36.92 per share, and debt-to-equity ratio near 0.98 | StockAnalysis.com balance sheet | August 3, 2026 |
| Valuation snapshot | 16.90x TTM EPS, 15.85x forward EPS, 1.92x sales, 2.70x book value, 11.50x price to free cash flow, 14.42x EV to EBITDA, and a PEG ratio of 0.88 on 5-year expected growth | StockAnalysis.com, Yahoo Finance, and Pineify financial_rigor.py | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy consensus. StockAnalysis shows a 13-analyst average target of $129.60 and Google Finance shows an 8-analyst average of $131.57 with a $117 to $150 range. Targets raised after Q2 include Seaport at $150, Roth MKM at $136, and Needham at $128 | StockAnalysis.com and Google Finance | August 3, 2026 |
| 52-week price range | $77.77 to $142.00, with a 52-week price change of -18.48% and a 1-year return near -20% per Yahoo Finance | StockAnalysis.com and Yahoo Finance | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical indicators | Beta of 1.32, RSI of 67.59, 50-day moving average of $85.04, 200-day moving average of $94.47, and 20-day average volume of 1,046,251 shares | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Short interest | About 6.12 million shares short, or 13.99% of shares outstanding and 14.24% of the float, with a days-to-cover ratio of 9.53 | StockAnalysis.com short selling statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Management and company profile | CEO Thomas L. Deitrich (since 2019), approximately 4,987 employees, founded in 1977, headquartered in Liberty Lake, Washington, trading on NASDAQ in the Scientific and Technical Instruments industry | StockAnalysis.com and Google Finance profile | August 3, 2026 |
This ITRI AI stock analysis page is an informational tool only and is not investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Forecast scenarios are based on available data as of August 3, 2026 and may be wrong if utility spending changes, revenue keeps declining, margins reverse, competitive dynamics shift, AI and data center demand timing proves cyclical, interest rates rise, or broader market conditions alter the valuation framework.
Design trading strategies visually with 10+ indicators. Set entry/exit conditions and risk management, then generate Pine Script code with no coding required.
Filter and discover stocks based on market cap, dividend yield, P/E ratio, sector, and more. Screen thousands of stocks with real-time data.
Smart AI-driven stock selection with fundamental screening, analyst estimates, and key metrics. Filter by P/E, market cap, dividends, and more.
