Badger Meter, Inc. research snapshot
BMI AI stock analysis reads Badger Meter, Inc. as a high-quality water technology franchise that is working through a 2026 revenue reset. Management reaffirmed roughly flat organic revenue guidance for the full year after first half sales fell about 7.7% year over year, and a securities class action filed over earlier growth commentary adds uncertainty. The analysis uses scenario ranges, not a certain price prediction. At the August 3, 2026 data cutoff, the latest verified quote was $136.66, down roughly 33% from the 52-week high of $204.00, with an implied market capitalization of about $3.96 billion. This is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$136.66
Market cap
$3.96 billion
AI score
50 / 100
Rating
Hold: quality franchise in a 2026 revenue reset
Trend status
Basing below the 200-day average after an earnings-driven selloff
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Badger Meter designs and sells flow measurement, control, and communication solutions for water utilities, with a large smart metering installed base, ORION cellular endpoints, and the BEACON software suite. | High |
| Moat | Moat comes from a 120-year brand in municipal water metering, high switching costs from deployed meters and BEACON software, critical-infrastructure certifications, and a multi-decade move from mechanical to AMI solutions. | Medium-high |
| Management | Kenneth C. Bockhorst has been CEO since 2020. Management bought back about $80 million in shares over the past three quarters, closed the UDlive acquisition in May 2026, and renewed a $150 million credit facility. Credibility is under pressure after the 2026 demand reset. | Medium |
| Financial trend | Revenue grew from about $505 million in 2021 to $916.66 million in 2025, but first half 2026 revenue fell about 7.7% year over year and management now guides full year 2026 organic revenue to be roughly flat. | High |
| Valuation | At 31.99x TTM earnings and 28.73x forward earnings, the stock trades at a premium to the industrial sector median. The multiple is well below the 40x to 50x levels of 2021 to 2024 but still prices in a return to growth. | Medium |
| Technical trend | The stock is down roughly 33% from the 52-week high of $204.00 and trades above the 50-day average of $135.10 but below the 200-day average of $153.25. Price is basing after a 13% earnings-day drop on July 22, 2026. | Medium |
| Risk level | Medium-high. Key risks include a securities class action, project timing slips into 2027, electronic component cost and availability pressure from the AI data center build-out, and cyclical municipal budget exposure. | Medium |
| AI confidence | Medium-high for reported financial data; medium for forward projections because of project ramp timing, litigation outcomes, and a thin analyst pool of 13 covering firms. | Medium |
| Investment certainty | Medium-low. The franchise quality and balance sheet are strong, but the 2026 revenue reset and litigation overhang make near-term outcomes harder to size. | Medium-low |
BMI AI stock forecast
BMI AI stock forecast scenarios are based on consensus EPS estimates, project ramp timing, the pending litigation, and likely P/E multiples. All scenarios are ranges, not price predictions.
$150 - $175
PRASA and other awarded projects ship on schedule, full year 2026 organic revenue lands flat and 2027 returns to mid-single-digit growth, gross margin holds above 40% despite electronics cost pressure, and the P/E re-rates toward 32x on EPS near $5.10 to $5.30.
$132 - $158
2026 organic revenue lands roughly flat as guided with growth weighted to Q4, 2027 EPS reaches near the $4.94 consensus, the multiple stays around 28x to 30x, and the litigation remains unresolved but non-operational.
$98 - $120
Project shipments slip into 2027, electronics cost and availability pressure compresses gross margin, the class action develops into an operational or settlement burden, and the multiple contracts toward 24x on EPS near $4.30 to $4.50.
BMI AI technical analysis
BMI AI technical analysis uses chart data as of August 3, 2026. The stock is above the 50-day moving average and below the 200-day moving average, basing after the July 22, 2026 earnings-day drop of roughly 13%.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Resistance | $146 - $150 | July 2026 pre-earnings highs. A daily close above $150 would signal a near-term reversal. |
| Resistance | $153.25 | The 200-day moving average. This is the key pivot between a basing pattern and a renewed uptrend. |
| Resistance | $160 | The analyst target cluster and a prior support zone from June 2026. |
| Support | $123 - $126 | The July 23, 2026 earnings-selloff low area. Holding here keeps the basing pattern intact. |
| Support | $112 - $115 | The 52-week low zone near $112.09, reached in April 2026 after the first quarter demand disclosure. |
| Moving averages | 50 DMA $135.10, 200 DMA $153.25 | Price is above the 50-day average but below the 200-day average, a mixed signal that usually resolves with the 200-day break. |
| Momentum | RSI near 52 | Neutral momentum. No oversold or overbought condition as of the data cutoff. |
| Volume | Above average | Volume spiked to roughly 1.4 million shares on July 22, 2026 versus a 20-day average near 536,000. |
| Volatility | High | Single-day gaps of 13% or more are possible around earnings, as seen on July 22, 2026. |
| Invalidation | Below $120 | A daily close below $120 would open the $112 to $115 zone. A close below $112 would resume the major downtrend. |
BMI AI trading strategy
BMI AI trading strategy provides educational frameworks, not personalized recommendations. Any trading decisions should consider individual risk tolerance and financial situation.
Enter on a daily close above $150 with expanding volume, or on a reclaim of the 200-day moving average near $153. Target $160 to $170 in the first leg. Invalidated if price closes back below $146.
Place a stop below $140 so the trade risks roughly 5% of price. Size the position so a stop-out costs no more than 2% of the trading account.
If BMI revisits the $123 to $126 support zone with RSI below 35, a mean-reversion long targeting $138 to $145 is a defined-risk framework. Timeframe: 4 to 8 weeks.
Stop-loss at $119, below the earnings-selloff low. Account for the possibility of a slide to the $112 to $115 zone before reversal.
The class action, upcoming quarterly reports (next tentatively October 21, 2026), and short interest near 13.2% of shares outstanding can create sharp gaps. Avoid oversized positions into earnings and monitor litigation and electronics supply headlines.
Use a trailing stop of roughly 10% on any long position. Keep total sector exposure limited because water infrastructure names can move together with municipal spending sentiment.
Investment research summary
Badger Meter sells the meters, cellular endpoints, and BEACON software that water utilities use to measure, monitor, and manage water distribution. Customers pay for hardware, communication services, and recurring software, with software and beyond-the-meter solutions growing faster than hardware in 2026.
With 120 years of history, Badger Meter holds deep municipal relationships. Switching costs are meaningful: once a utility deploys Badger meters and the BEACON platform, ripping them out is disruptive. The ORION cellular endpoint and a shift toward Network-as-a-Service contracts add a recurring revenue layer and raise barriers for new entrants.
The thesis fails if: (1) awarded projects, including PRASA, slip into 2027 and the flat 2026 guide becomes a decline; (2) electronic component costs and availability pressure from the AI and data center build-out compress gross margin; (3) the class action results in a meaningful settlement or management distraction; (4) the stock was overvalued even at 32x earnings for a company with declining revenue.
CEO Kenneth C. Bockhorst has led since 2020. Management has returned cash through 33 consecutive years of dividend growth, bought back roughly $80 million of shares over three quarters, and completed the UDlive sewer monitoring acquisition in May 2026. The 2026 guidance reset and the securities case are the main credibility questions.
Water infrastructure is a long-term secular trend driven by aging pipes, population growth, climate resilience, and federal funding. Advanced metering adoption remains early, and management cites a multi-decade digital transformation. However, municipal spending is cyclical, project timing is uneven, and a competitor recently exited mechanical meters, which may help Badger Meter over time.
At $136.66, BMI trades at 31.99x trailing earnings, 28.73x forward earnings, and 25.91x free cash flow. The bull case (EPS near $5.10 to $5.30, 32x) targets about $163 to $170; the base case (EPS near $4.94, 28x to 30x) targets about $138 to $148; the bear case (EPS near $4.30 to $4.50, 24x) targets about $103 to $108. The current price sits between the base and bear ranges, offering a modest margin of safety only if the recovery lands on time.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current price | $136.66 | StockAnalysis.com (S&P Global Market Intelligence / CBOE) | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $3.96 billion | StockAnalysis.com | August 3, 2026 |
| P/E ratio (TTM) | 31.99x | StockAnalysis.com | August 3, 2026 |
| Forward P/E | 28.73x | StockAnalysis.com | August 3, 2026 |
| EPS (TTM) | $4.27 | StockAnalysis.com | August 3, 2026 |
| Revenue (FY2025) | $916.66 million | StockAnalysis.com / Fiscal.ai | August 3, 2026 |
| Net income (FY2025) | $141.63 million | StockAnalysis.com / Fiscal.ai | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 revenue | $222.3 million, down 7% YoY | Badger Meter Q2 2026 earnings release and call (July 22, 2026) | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 diluted EPS | $1.02, down 13% YoY | Badger Meter Q2 2026 earnings release and call (July 22, 2026) | August 3, 2026 |
| 2026 organic revenue guidance | Roughly flat vs 2025 | Badger Meter Q2 2026 earnings call | August 3, 2026 |
| 52-week range | $112.09 - $204.00 | StockAnalysis.com | August 3, 2026 |
| Dividend per share | $1.60 annual, 1.17% yield | StockAnalysis.com | August 3, 2026 |
| Short interest | 3.83 million shares, 13.21% of shares outstanding | StockAnalysis.com | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy, average price target $155.44 across 13 analysts | StockAnalysis.com (S&P Global Market Intelligence) | August 3, 2026 |
| CEO | Kenneth C. Bockhorst | StockAnalysis.com company profile | August 3, 2026 |
| Employees | 2,477 | StockAnalysis.com | August 3, 2026 |
This BMI AI stock analysis page is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. All analyses, forecasts, and scenarios are based on publicly available data as of August 3, 2026, and may contain errors or omissions. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Trading stocks involves risk of loss. Consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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