Bullish case
Around $186.10 in 3 years
More likely if AFFO compounds near 10%, the market keeps a premium 24x AFFO multiple, data center leasing remains strong, and funding costs do not pressure returns.
Iron Mountain Incorporated research snapshot
IRM AI Stock Analysis
IRM AI stock analysis reads Iron Mountain as a records storage REIT that is being repriced around data center growth, digital solutions, and durable physical storage cash flows. The July 7, 2026 close of $115.75 implies a market capitalization near $34.44 billion and a premium multiple on AFFO, so the current answer is quality business, watch valuation and leverage. This page uses scenarios, not a certain price prediction, and is for information only, not investment advice.
Current price
$115.75 close on July 7, 2026
Market cap
$34.44 billion
AI score
71 / 100
Rating
Quality REIT with data center growth, leverage sensitive
Trend status
Positive long-term trend with near-term pullback risk
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 8, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
Research quality check
- information Richness
- A-level information richness. IRM has long SEC disclosure, company presentations, REIT-specific metrics, multiple quote sources, and broad analyst coverage.
- bias Check
- The main AI bias risk is over-weighting the attractive data center narrative and under-weighting REIT leverage, power availability, capex intensity, tenant concentration, and the premium already priced into the stock.
- ai Confidence
- High data confidence
- investment Certainty
- Medium. Storage durability and recurring revenue are visible, but future returns depend on AFFO growth, data center execution, interest rates, leverage, and entry multiple.
Quick verdict table
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | IRM combines recurring records management, information management services, data centers, and asset lifecycle services with high customer retention. | High |
| Moat | Moat comes from switching costs, physical custody workflows, compliance requirements, scale, long customer relationships, and data center site capacity. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO William Meaney has repositioned IRM from legacy storage toward Project Matterhorn, digital services, and faster-growing data centers while preserving the dividend model. | High |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue rose to $6.902 billion and Q1 2026 revenue reached $1.936 billion, while AFFO guidance points to $5.79 to $5.86 per share for 2026. | High |
| Valuation | At $115.75, the tool-verified P/S is about 4.75x and dividend yield is about 2.99%, while the relevant REIT valuation lens is AFFO rather than GAAP EPS. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | The stock remains above its 52-week low and below its 52-week high, with short-term references around the latest day range and the $121.00 high. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are interest rates, leverage, data center capex execution, power constraints, data center tenant concentration, physical storage volume erosion, and valuation compression. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High confidence for reported financials and market-cap math. Medium confidence for technical levels that need live chart confirmation. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty because the business has durable cash flows, but the expected return is sensitive to capital cost and the market price paid for AFFO growth. | Medium |
IRM AI stock forecast
IRM AI Stock Forecast Scenarios
The IRM AI stock forecast uses a three-year scenario model based on the 2026 AFFO per share guidance midpoint of $5.825 and the July 7, 2026 close of $115.75. These ranges are planning scenarios, not promised price targets.
Base case
Around $138.80 in 3 years
More likely if AFFO compounds near 6%, the market values IRM near 20x AFFO, storage remains stable, and data center growth offsets higher capital needs.
Bearish case
Around $90.00 in 3 years
More likely if AFFO growth slows to about 1%, the multiple compresses toward 15x, rates stay high, data center execution disappoints, or leverage limits flexibility.
IRM AI technical analysis
IRM AI Technical Analysis
IRM AI technical analysis starts from the July 7, 2026 delayed quote. Barchart showed a $115.75 close, $114.45 to $116.50 day range, $72.33 to $130.24 52-week range, and a 50-day moving average near $109.71. Moving averages and intraday momentum should be checked on a live chart before trading.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current close | $115.75 | Closing quote from July 7, 2026. Next-session price action can change the setup. |
| Near support | $114.45 | The July 7 day low is the first short-term support reference. |
| Trend support | $109.71 | Barchart listed the 50-day moving average near this level in the July 2026 snapshot. |
| Major support | $72.33 | The 52-week low is the larger downside reference if the long-term trend breaks. |
| Near resistance | $116.50 | The July 7 day high is the first level bulls need to clear. |
| Round-number resistance | $121.00 | Recent market commentary highlighted $121.00 as the nearby yearly high reference. |
| Major resistance | $130.24 | The 52-week high is the broader upside resistance zone. |
| 200-day moving average | Requires live chart confirmation | Use a current chart before acting because this static page does not fetch request-time data. |
| Volume | 2.05M shares | Volume on July 7, 2026 was below a 3-month average near 3.78M, so breakouts need confirmation. |
| Invalidation | Close below $114.45, then $109.71 | A close below near support weakens the setup. A break below the 50-day area would reduce trend confidence. |
IRM AI trading strategy
IRM AI Trading Strategy Framework
The IRM AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework for monitoring a REIT with data center growth exposure. It is not personalized advice and should be paired with position limits, stop rules, dividend tax review, and fresh earnings checks.
Trend-following setup
Wait for IRM to reclaim the $116.50 to $121.00 resistance area on stronger volume, then confirm that AFFO guidance, data center leasing, and balance sheet commentary still support the move.
Invalidate the setup if price fails the breakout and closes back below $114.45 or the 50-day moving average area.
Mean-reversion setup
If IRM pulls back toward the 50-day moving average, compare the price decline with business evidence: storage revenue retention, data center backlog, interest expense, payout ratio, and leverage.
Do not average down if AFFO guidance weakens, capex needs rise, or debt markets become less favorable at the same time.
Fundamental monitor
Track 2026 revenue guidance of $7.625 billion to $7.775 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $2.800 billion to $2.850 billion, AFFO of $1.720 billion to $1.740 billion, and AFFO per share of $5.79 to $5.86.
Reduce confidence if data center growth needs more external capital while AFFO per share growth slows.
Investment research summary
Four-master Research Compression
Business essence
Customers pay IRM to store, protect, retrieve, digitize, and manage information assets that are costly or risky to move incorrectly.
Moat
The moat is based on switching costs, custody trust, compliance workflows, physical scale, customer relationships, and data center capacity in constrained markets.
Munger risk inversion
The thesis fails if legacy storage erodes faster than expected, data center returns disappoint, leverage costs rise, the dividend crowds out growth capital, or the stock multiple resets lower.
Management
Management has shifted IRM toward faster-growth digital and data center assets, but investors should monitor leverage discipline, capital allocation, and execution under Project Matterhorn.
Industry trend
Records compliance is mature but sticky, while cloud, AI, and enterprise data growth support the data center opportunity. The long-term trend is attractive but capital intensive.
Valuation and margin of safety
The business quality is strong, but at $115.75 the margin of safety depends on sustained AFFO per share growth, manageable rates, and disciplined data center capital deployment.
Source-backed data
IRM Data Table
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current price | $115.75 close on July 7, 2026 | Barchart delayed quote | July 8, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $34.44 billion | Tool-verified with $115.75 price and 297.52M shares | July 8, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 297.52 million | StockAnalysis company profile | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $6.902 billion | Iron Mountain 2025 Form 10-K, cross-checked with StockAnalysis | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income attributable to IRM | $144.6 million | Iron Mountain 2025 Form 10-K, cross-checked with Macrotrends rounded data | July 8, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 revenue | $1.936 billion | Iron Mountain Q1 2026 results release | July 8, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 adjusted EBITDA | $677.0 million | Iron Mountain Q1 2026 results release | July 8, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 AFFO | $490.2 million | Iron Mountain Q1 2026 results release | July 8, 2026 |
| Cash and cash equivalents | $250.7 million at March 31, 2026 | Iron Mountain Q1 2026 results release, cross-checked with SEC summary | July 8, 2026 |
| Total debt | $15.41 billion at March 31, 2026 | Iron Mountain Q1 2026 results release | July 8, 2026 |
| 2026 guidance | Revenue $7.625B to $7.775B, adjusted EBITDA $2.800B to $2.850B, AFFO $1.720B to $1.740B, AFFO/share $5.79 to $5.86 | Iron Mountain Q1 2026 results release | July 8, 2026 |
| CEO | William L. Meaney, President and Chief Executive Officer | Iron Mountain Q1 2026 results release | July 8, 2026 |
Frequently Asked Questions
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This IRM AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of return. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data and simplified assumptions as of the stated cutoff date. They can be wrong if fundamentals, valuation, technical conditions, rates, or market liquidity change.