Bullish case
$255 to $285
More likely if contract value growth accelerates, Insights revenue holds pricing power, Conferences keep expanding, Consulting stabilizes, and buybacks continue at attractive prices.
Gartner, Inc. research snapshot
IT AI Stock Analysis
IT AI stock analysis currently reads Gartner as a durable research and advisory franchise with strong free cash flow, high client relevance in enterprise technology decisions, and disciplined buybacks, but the stock still carries growth and sentiment risk after a steep one-year drawdown. The forecast is scenario-based: upside depends on contract value acceleration, stable renewal economics, and margin discipline, while downside risk rises if consulting weakness, slower enterprise spending, or AI-driven competition pressure the research model.
Current price
$140.80
Market cap
$9.43 billion
AI score
66 / 100
Rating
High-cash-flow advisory franchise, turnaround watch
Trend status
Weak intermediate trend with a short-term bounce
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 8, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
Research quality check
- information Richness
- A-level information richness. Gartner has long public filings, official quarterly releases, third-party market data, technical data, and an established investor relations record.
- bias Check
- The main AI research risk is consensus anchoring around Gartner as a quality compounder. This page tests the opposing case: slower contract value growth, consulting declines, customer budget delays, high debt after buybacks, and the risk that generative AI changes how clients consume research.
- ai Confidence
- High for reported revenue, cash flow, segment data, price, market cap, and share count. Medium for technical levels and valuation scenarios because the stock has been volatile and Q2 2026 earnings were still pending at the cutoff.
- investment Certainty
- Medium. Gartner has a cash-generative business model, but the investment case depends on renewed growth after FY2025 net income compression and Q1 2026 revenue decline.
Quick verdict table
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Gartner sells recurring insight, advisory access, conferences, and consulting to enterprise leaders who need help on technology, procurement, and operating decisions. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from brand trust, analyst relationships, proprietary research, benchmark data, and enterprise workflow embedment, but AI answer tools can pressure low-value research consumption. | Medium-high |
| Management | Gene Hall has run Gartner for a long period and continues to emphasize contract value, free cash flow, and share repurchases. | High |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue rose to about $6.5 billion, but net income fell to about $729 million and Q1 2026 revenue declined 1.5% as reported. | High |
| Valuation | At $140.80, the stock trades near 14.0x TTM EPS, 8.2x TTM free cash flow per share, and 1.46x sales using verified inputs. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | The short-term bounce above the 20-day average is constructive, but the stock remains below the 60-day average and broad technical sentiment is still sell-leaning. | Medium |
| Risk level | Main risks are slower enterprise technology spending, AI substitution, consulting declines, debt and buyback timing, analyst retention, and client renewal pressure. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | The descriptive research confidence is high because the data is broad and recent. Forward return confidence is lower because sentiment and earnings revisions can change quickly. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | The business is easier to understand than the near-term growth path. The setup needs evidence that contract value and revenue growth can reaccelerate. | Medium |
IT AI stock forecast
IT AI Stock Forecast Scenarios
The IT AI stock forecast should be treated as scenario math, not a precise price prediction. Using Gartner management commentary that 2026 adjusted EPS guidance was at least $13.25, a July 7, 2026 price of $140.80, and a three-year model, the tested outputs were about $109 in a bear case, $174 in a base case, and $284 in a bull case before dividends, which Gartner does not currently pay.
Base case
$160 to $175
More likely if Gartner grows EPS at a low single-digit rate, free cash flow stays above $1.1 billion, and the market assigns a low-teens earnings multiple.
Bearish case
$100 to $110
More likely if enterprise decision cycles stay slow, AI tools reduce willingness to pay for research seats, consulting revenue remains weak, or debt and buybacks constrain flexibility.
IT AI technical analysis
IT AI Technical Analysis
IT AI technical analysis is mixed as of the July 8, 2026 data cutoff. Gartner closed at $140.80 on July 7, 2026. The stock was above its 20-day simple moving average, below its 60-day simple moving average, and third-party technical summaries still leaned sell, so the chart needs follow-through before the intermediate trend improves.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $140.80 | StockAnalysis closing quote for July 7, 2026. |
| Near support | $122 to $125 | Intellectia pivot support was near $122, and StockAnalysis showed a 52-week low near $124.25. |
| Pivot zone | $136 to $141 | Price around the July 7 close and Intellectia pivot area. Holding this zone keeps the short-term rebound alive. |
| Near resistance | $148 to $165 | Intellectia reported major resistance near $148, while StockAnalysis showed the consensus target at $165. |
| 20-day SMA | $138.55 | Intellectia reported price above the 20-day simple moving average, a short-term buy signal. |
| 60-day SMA | $149.49 | Intellectia reported price below the 60-day simple moving average, a medium-term sell signal. |
| Momentum | Sell-leaning | TipRanks technical summary showed 5 bullish, 6 neutral, and 11 bearish signals. |
| Volume | 1.34 million shares | StockAnalysis reported July 7, 2026 volume of 1,343,673 shares. |
| Invalidation | Close below $122 | A decisive break below the pivot support and 52-week low area would invalidate the rebound setup. |
IT AI trading strategy
IT AI Trading Strategy Framework
The IT AI trading strategy below is a research framework, not personal investment advice. It combines Gartner business milestones with technical confirmation, predefined invalidation levels, and source-backed monitoring data.
Trend-following setup
Watch for IT to reclaim the $148 to $165 resistance area while the 20-day average stays above price support and Q2 2026 results confirm stable contract value.
Avoid treating a one-day rebound as a trend change. A close back below the $136 to $141 pivot zone weakens the setup.
Mean-reversion setup
If IT revisits $122 to $125 without a new business deterioration, compare price action with free cash flow guidance, renewal commentary, and consulting revenue trends.
Use the $122 area as a thesis checkpoint. A close below that level shifts the setup from mean reversion to potential breakdown.
Fundamental monitor
Track contract value, Insights growth, Conferences revenue, Consulting declines, free cash flow conversion, buyback pace, net debt, and signs that AI products affect client seat demand.
Position size should reflect the wide gap between the bear and bull scenarios. Scenario ranges can change after the August 4, 2026 earnings release.
Investment research summary
Four-master Research Compression
Business essence
Gartner is paid because executives need trusted research, vendor evaluation, peer benchmarks, and advice for high-stakes technology and business decisions. The strongest segment is Insights, which produced $1.294 billion of Q1 2026 revenue.
Moat
The moat is built on brand authority, long customer relationships, research workflows, analyst access, and proprietary data. Switching costs are meaningful when Gartner becomes part of budgeting, vendor selection, and executive planning.
Munger risk inversion
The thesis fails if clients decide AI tools and internal data can replace paid research, if slow enterprise spending hurts renewals, if consulting weakness spreads, or if buybacks at high prices reduce balance sheet flexibility.
Management
Gene Hall and the board continue to prioritize free cash flow and buybacks. Gartner repurchased 7.0 million shares in 2025 and another 3.3 million in Q1 2026, but investors should test whether repurchases are value-accretive after debt changes.
Industry trend
Gartner sits inside a long-term enterprise technology decision market. AI, cybersecurity, cloud, and software complexity support demand for advice, while AI also creates the main disruption risk to traditional research consumption.
Valuation and margin of safety
At 14.0x TTM EPS and 8.2x TTM free cash flow per share, the stock is cheaper than a typical high-quality information services compounder, but margin of safety depends on growth reacceleration rather than multiple expansion alone.
Source-backed data
IT Data Table
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| IT price | $140.80 at July 7, 2026 close | StockAnalysis | July 8, 2026 |
| Market cap | $9.43 billion, verified with 66.95 million shares | StockAnalysis | July 8, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 66.95 million from StockAnalysis; 69.8 million from CompaniesMarketCap July 2026 page | StockAnalysis and CompaniesMarketCap | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $6.497 billion consensus cross-check; Gartner release rounded to $6.5 billion | Gartner Q4 2025 release | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income | $729 million precise third-party consensus; Gartner release rounded to $0.7 billion | Macrotrends and StockAnalysis cross-check | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2025 free cash flow | $1.175 billion | Gartner Q4 2025 release | July 8, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 revenue and net income | $1.511 billion revenue; $222 million net income | Gartner Q1 2026 release | July 8, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 free cash flow | $371 million, up 28.7% year over year | Gartner Q1 2026 release | July 8, 2026 |
| Business footprint | $6.5 billion revenue, 20,000+ associates, 45+ years, 90 countries and territories | Gartner Investor Relations overview | July 8, 2026 |
| Technical setup | 20-day SMA $138.55; 60-day SMA $149.49; technical sentiment sell-leaning | Intellectia and TipRanks | July 8, 2026 |
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This Gartner IT AI stock analysis is for informational and educational use only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future returns. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available public data as of the stated cutoff date and can be wrong if earnings, valuation multiples, market conditions, or company fundamentals change.