Hawkins Inc. research snapshot
HWKN AI stock analysis currently reads Hawkins Inc. as a steady, well-managed water treatment and specialty ingredients company with record revenue, strong free cash flow, a 5% dividend increase to $0.20 quarterly, and a long dividend growth record. At the August 3, 2026 data cutoff, HWKN closed near $132.08 with a verified market capitalization near $2.76 billion. The HWKN AI stock forecast stays scenario-based because Q1 fiscal 2027 delivered record revenue of $315.7 million but diluted EPS fell 4% to $1.35 on LIFO and freight cost pressure, and the stock still trades at a premium valuation for a mid-single-digit grower after a sharp pullback from the 52-week high near $186.
Current price
$132.08 close on August 3, 2026, up 3.16% on the day; previous close $128.03
Market cap
$2.76 billion market cap as of August 3, 2026, with enterprise value near $3.01 billion
AI score
63 / 100
Rating
Steady, well-managed water treatment and specialty ingredients business with record revenue and cash generation, but Q1 fiscal 2027 showed margin compression and a lower EPS, and the premium valuation still leaves limited room for error
Trend status
Downtrend. HWKN closed at $132.08 on August 3, 2026, below both its 50-day moving average near $148 and 200-day moving average near $148, after a sharp late-June sell-off that took the stock close to the 52-week low around $118
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Hawkins distributes, blends, and manufactures water treatment chemicals, food and pharmaceutical ingredients, and industrial chemicals. Q1 fiscal 2027 revenue rose 8% to a record $315.7 million with all three segments growing, including a 30% jump in agricultural products. | Medium-high |
| Moat | The moat comes from customer switching costs, local service capability, chemical handling permits, and a small set of proprietary products such as NanoStack membranes. It is moderate because most products are commodity chemicals with limited pricing power. | Medium |
| Management | CEO Patrick Hawkins runs a family-influenced, long-term-oriented company. In Q1 fiscal 2027 management repurchased $7.0 million of stock, paid $4.0 million in dividends, closed the Aqua-Chem acquisition, raised the dividend 5% to $0.20 quarterly, and cut the leverage ratio to 1.36x adjusted EBITDA. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Q1 fiscal 2027 net income fell 3% to $28.3 million and diluted EPS fell 4% to $1.35, as LIFO and freight costs pressured gross margin to 23% from 25%. TTM revenue reached about $1.11 billion with TTM net income of $80.6 million, and quarterly free cash flow rose more than 30% to $23.5 million. | Medium |
| Valuation | At $132.08, HWKN trades at about 34.2x trailing EPS, 31.1x forward earnings, 2.5x sales, 5.0x book value, and 17.4x EV/EBITDA, with a 0.61% dividend yield. The multiple remains above the stock historical range even after the pullback. | High |
| Technical trend | HWKN is in a downtrend, closing at $132.08 on August 3, 2026, below its 50-day average near $148.19 and 200-day average near $147.80. RSI recovered to about 37.5 after the stock hit a $119.02 intraday low on July 31, near the 52-week low of $117.98. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is moderate-plus for a small cap. Risks include commodity price swings, LIFO and freight cost pressure, economic sensitivity of chemical demand, customer concentration, $244.0 million of debt, and trading liquidity that is thinner than large caps. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high for reported financial data. Return confidence is lower because the premium valuation and small cap nature amplify uncertainty. | Medium-high data confidence |
| Investment certainty | HWKN looks like a decent business at a price that still assumes steady execution. Record revenue and free cash flow are positives, but the roughly 34x multiple leaves little cushion if margins stay pressured or small cap sentiment weakens. | Medium-low |
HWKN AI stock forecast
The HWKN AI stock forecast is scenario-based, not a fixed price prediction. Using the August 3, 2026 data cutoff, a $132.08 price reference, $3.86 TTM GAAP EPS, and a three-year model, the scenario math produced roughly $160 to $185 in a bullish case, $115 to $140 in a base case, and $70 to $90 in a bearish case before dividends. The scenarios differ mainly on whether EPS grows, whether gross margins recover from LIFO and freight pressure, and what multiple investors assign to a mid-single-digit grower.
$160 to $185 before dividends
More likely if gross margins recover as raw material and freight costs stabilize, the Water Treatment and Food and Health Sciences segments keep growing, the Aqua-Chem acquisition adds more than expected, EPS compounds near high single digits, and the market keeps a premium multiple on HWKN.
$115 to $140 before dividends
More likely if EPS grows at a mid-single-digit pace from the fiscal 2027 consensus near $4.99, margins stay near current levels, free cash flow funds acquisitions and buybacks, and the multiple drifts back toward the stock historical 22x to 26x range.
$70 to $90 before dividends
More likely if an economic downturn cuts chemical demand, LIFO and freight costs keep squeezing margins, the dividend growth story stalls, or investors demand a lower multiple for a small cap after several quarters of EPS declines.
HWKN AI technical analysis
HWKN AI technical analysis shows a stock in a clear downtrend as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff. The close of $132.08 sits below both the 50-day moving average near $148.19 and the 200-day moving average near $147.80. After peaking above $165 in late June, the stock fell sharply, including a 12.49% drop on June 29, and hit a $119.02 intraday low on July 31 before rebounding 3.16% on August 3. The 52-week range is $117.98 to $186.15, and RSI stood near 37.5, recovering from oversold.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price reference | $132.08 close on August 3, 2026 | StockAnalysis reported the close with a day range of $128.74 to $133.03 and a market cap near $2.76 billion. |
| Immediate support | $126 to $128 | The July 30 intraday low of $126.08 and the July 31 close zone form the first support area. The August 3 open of $128.74 also sits in this band. |
| Key support | $118 to $120 | StockAnalysis reported a $119.02 intraday low on July 31 and a 52-week low of $117.98. This zone is the last line of defense for the longer-term trend. |
| Near resistance | $138 to $140 | The July 29 close of $138.60 and the mid-July trading band near $139 create the first resistance zone. A reclaim of this area with volume would signal short-term strength. |
| Mid resistance | $142 to $145 | The late July consolidation around $143 and early July trading near $142 represent overhead supply from recent sellers. |
| Upper resistance | $148 to $150 | The 50-day moving average near $148.19 and the round $150 level form the next resistance band. The 200-day average near $147.80 adds to this zone. |
| 52-week high reference | $186.15 | StockAnalysis reported this 52-week high. It is a reference level, not a near-term price target. |
| Momentum | RSI near 37.5 | StockAnalysis reported the RSI at 37.53 on August 3, recovering from oversold after the July 31 low. Momentum is still weak while the price stays below the 50-day average. |
| Volume | 20-day average about 178,500 shares | StockAnalysis reported 178,539 average shares over 20 days. Volume spiked above 300,000 on July 30 and July 31 during the sell-off, which is consistent with a continuation move. |
| Invalidation | Close below $118 | A decisive close below the $117.98 52-week low would invalidate any long-side mean-reversion setup and signal a new leg lower. |
HWKN AI trading strategy
The HWKN AI trading strategy below is a planning framework for research and risk control, not personal investment advice. It connects price behavior with segment growth, chemical margins, LIFO and freight costs, acquisition integration, free cash flow, and small cap valuation risk.
With RSI near 37.5 and a 3.16% bounce on August 3 off the $119 low, an oversold recovery is in progress. Watch for HWKN to hold the $126 to $128 support zone and then reclaim $138 to $140 with above-average volume.
Oversold conditions alone are not a buy signal. A failed hold below $126 should be treated as continuation rather than reversion. Volume confirmation is essential.
HWKN is in a confirmed downtrend below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. A trend-following approach would wait for a higher low above $126 and a reclaim of the 50-day average near $148 before considering a long position.
Do not attempt to catch a falling knife. The trend-following position is invalidated if HWKN closes below the $117.98 52-week low.
Track Water Treatment segment growth, gross margin recovery from LIFO and freight pressure, Food and Health Sciences performance, Aqua-Chem contribution, free cash flow, the leverage ratio, dividend growth, and analyst estimate revisions after the July 29 report.
Position sizing should reflect the small cap risk premium. The roughly 34x trailing PE offers limited cushion if margins stay pressured or earnings disappoint.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Hawkins for reliable, safe supply of essential chemicals that keep municipal water systems, food production, pharmaceutical manufacturing, and industrial processes running daily. Q1 fiscal 2027 revenue rose 8% to a record $315.7 million, confirming that dependability, not innovation, is the core value.
Hawkins benefits from customer switching costs, local service infrastructure, supplier qualification, chemical handling permits, and a few proprietary products such as NanoStack membranes. The moat is moderate because most products are commodity chemicals and pricing power is limited.
The thesis fails if gross margins keep falling because of LIFO and freight costs, an economic downturn cuts chemical demand, the Food and Health Sciences segment stalls, the Aqua-Chem acquisition disappoints, or the premium multiple compresses toward the historical 20x to 26x range.
Patrick Hawkins, CEO, represents a family-influenced culture. Recent decisions are disciplined: a 5% dividend raise to $0.20 quarterly, $7.0 million of buybacks, a small Aqua-Chem acquisition, and deleveraging to 1.36x adjusted EBITDA. The key risk is that small cap management teams can make transformational mistakes.
Water infrastructure spending, food safety regulation, and agricultural demand provide durable tailwinds. Chemical distribution is a mature, slow-growth industry where consolidation and geographic expansion are the main growth paths. Hawkins competes effectively as a US regional player.
At $132.08, HWKN trades at about 34x trailing EPS with a $2.76 billion market cap. The premium multiple for a mid-single-digit grower leaves a thin margin of safety, and the three-year scenario model puts the base case below the current price near $115 to $140.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current price reference | $132.08 close on August 3, 2026; previous close $128.03 | StockAnalysis HWKN overview (CBOE and Nasdaq UTP pricing) | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $2.76 billion, with enterprise value of $3.01 billion | StockAnalysis HWKN statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 20.88 million, float 19.11 million | StockAnalysis HWKN statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 FY2027 revenue | $315.7 million, up 8% (record), organic growth about 5% | Hawkins Q1 fiscal 2027 results, GlobeNewswire | July 29, 2026 |
| Q1 FY2027 net income and EPS | $28.3 million, diluted EPS $1.35 versus $1.40 | Hawkins Q1 fiscal 2027 results, GlobeNewswire | July 29, 2026 |
| Q1 FY2027 segment growth | Water Treatment up 6% to $158.3M, Food and Health Sciences up 9% to $97.3M, Industrial Solutions up 10% to $60.1M | Hawkins Q1 fiscal 2027 results, GlobeNewswire | July 29, 2026 |
| TTM revenue and net income | TTM revenue about $1.11 billion, TTM net income about $80.6 million | StockAnalysis HWKN statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2026 full year results | Revenue $1.08 billion up 11.21%, net income $81.55 million down 3.32%, EPS $3.91 | StockAnalysis HWKN financials (fiscal year ended March 29, 2026) | Fiscal year ended March 29, 2026 |
| Segment revenue FY2026 | Water Treatment $543.3M, Food and Health Sciences $320.7M, Industrial Solutions $219.7M | StockAnalysis HWKN financials | Fiscal year ended March 29, 2026 |
| Gross margin | Q1 FY2027 23% of sales versus 25% a year ago, pressured by LIFO and freight costs | Hawkins Q1 fiscal 2027 results, GlobeNewswire | July 29, 2026 |
| Free cash flow | Q1 FY2027 $23.5 million up more than 30%; TTM free cash flow $91.69 million | Hawkins Q1 results and StockAnalysis | July 29, 2026 / August 3, 2026 |
| Balance sheet | Cash $7.98M, total debt $244.0M as of June 28, 2026, leverage ratio 1.36x adjusted EBITDA | Hawkins Q1 fiscal 2027 results, GlobeNewswire | June 28, 2026 |
| Dividend | Quarterly dividend raised 5% to $0.20, annualized $0.80, yield 0.61%, ex-date August 14, 2026 | GlobeNewswire dividend release and StockAnalysis | July 29, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | PE 34.21, forward PE 31.12, PS 2.49, PB 5.00, EV/EBITDA 17.40, PEG 2.22 | StockAnalysis HWKN statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| 52-week range | $117.98 to $186.15 | StockAnalysis HWKN overview | August 3, 2026 |
| Moving averages and RSI | 50-day moving average $148.19, 200-day moving average $147.80, RSI 37.53 | StockAnalysis HWKN statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst ratings | Hold consensus across 4 analysts, average target $177.50 (low $142, median $184, high $200). BWS Financial Buy at $200, Barclays Equal Weight cut to $142. | StockAnalysis HWKN forecast | August 3, 2026 |
| Short interest | 1.12 million shares, 5.88% of float, 5.75 days to cover | StockAnalysis HWKN statistics | August 3, 2026 |
This HWKN AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Forecast scenarios are based on public data available at the stated cutoff date, can be wrong, and should be checked against your own research, risk tolerance, and qualified professional advice.
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