Healthcare Realty Trust Incorporated research snapshot
HR AI stock analysis currently reads Healthcare Realty Trust as a medical office building (MOB) REIT with structural demand tailwinds from aging demographics and outpatient care migration, a recovering same-store NOI trend, and a 4.64% dividend yield that offers income. At the July 11, 2026 cutoff, HR closed at $20.69 on July 10, market capitalization was about $7.17 billion, and the stock traded above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages with YTD gains of about 22.4%. The HR AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges because the outcome depends on normalized FFO growth, lease-up execution, debt management, portfolio repositioning progress, and the multiple the market applies to medical office REIT earnings. This page is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$20.69
Market cap
$7.17 billion
AI score
62 / 100
Rating
Medical office building REIT with improving FFO trends, 4.64% dividend yield, and execution risk from portfolio reshaping
Trend status
Above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages with strong YTD momentum of +22.4%
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 11, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Healthcare Realty Trust owns and operates 563 medical office buildings across 28 states, totaling 32.9 million square feet. The business benefits from hospital-affiliated demand, high tenant retention, and structural outpatient migration. The quality is decent but the portfolio is still being reshaped. | Medium |
| Moat | The moat comes from hospital-system relationships, on-campus location advantages, property-level barriers to replacement, and portfolio scale. It is moderate because MOB real estate is competitive and tenants have alternatives in off-campus locations. | Medium |
| Management | Management led the 2022 merger with Healthcare Trust of America and is now repositioning the portfolio, issuing $600 million of exchangeable notes, executing share buybacks, and guiding normalized FFO higher. The key test is whether the portfolio reshaping creates sustainable FFO per share growth. | Medium |
| Financial trend | TTM revenue was $1.18 billion, but GAAP net income was a loss of $246.1 million including depreciation. Normalized FFO guidance was raised to $1.59-$1.65 per share. Q1 2026 normalized FFO was $0.41 per share, beating estimates by $0.02. Revenue declined from $299M in Q1 2025 to $279M in Q1 2026 due to asset sales. | Medium |
| Valuation | At $20.69, the stock trades at about 12.8x the 2026 normalized FFO midpoint, 1.60x book value, 6.07x sales, and a 4.64% dividend yield. The three-scenario model produced about $27.0 in the bull case, $21.9 in the base case, and $16.2 in the bear case using normalized FFO as the earnings proxy. | Medium |
| Technical trend | HR is above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. YTD return is about +22.4% and the stock is near the 52-week high of $20.90. RSI is in the constructive range near 65. A break above the 52-week high would confirm momentum. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Risk is medium-high for a REIT this size. GAAP net losses persist, total debt of $4.65 billion is significant relative to $7.17 billion equity, revenue is declining from asset sales, and the portfolio transition adds execution risk. Interest rate sensitivity and dividend coverage should be monitored. | Medium |
| AI confidence | Medium-high for company-reported financials, market cap, shares outstanding, dividend, and FFO guidance; medium for same-store NOI trajectory, lease-up timing, debt refinancing terms, and terminal FFO multiples. | Medium-high data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium-low certainty. The FFO trend is improving and the dividend is covered, but GAAP losses, a high debt load, declining revenue, and a portfolio still in transition make the investment case less predictable than larger healthcare REIT peers. | Medium-low |
HR AI stock forecast
The HR AI stock forecast uses normalized FFO per share, same-store NOI growth, portfolio repositioning progress, debt metrics, dividend coverage, and medical office REIT valuation multiples rather than a single price prediction. The bullish case becomes more likely if normalized FFO compounds above 6%, same-store NOI stays above 4%, debt leverage improves, and medical office REITs sustain a 12-14x FFO multiple. The bearish case becomes more likely if FFO growth stalls, interest costs rise, portfolio sales dilute per-share earnings, or the stock rerates toward a 10x or lower FFO multiple.
$26 to $28
More likely if normalized FFO per share compounds near 6% annually for three years, same-store NOI stays above 4%, portfolio reshaping completes on schedule, and the market applies about a 14x terminal FFO proxy multiple. The verified model produced about $27.0.
$21 to $23
More likely if 2026 normalized FFO tracks the $1.59-$1.65 guidance range, NOI growth stays near 3.75%, leverage stabilizes, and the market applies about a 12x FFO proxy multiple. The verified model base case was about $21.9.
$15 to $17
More likely if FFO growth stalls, interest expense rises, asset sales dilute FFO per share, or medical office REIT multiples contract toward 10x. The verified bear model produced about $16.2 using flat FFO and a 10x terminal multiple.
HR AI technical analysis
HR AI technical analysis starts from the $20.69 close on July 10, 2026. The stock is above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages with strong YTD momentum of +22.4%. RSI is in the constructive range. Technical levels should be checked against Q2 2026 earnings scheduled for July 30, 2026, FFO guidance updates, interest rate moves, and medical office REIT sector data.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $20.69 | Closing price on July 10, 2026 used for this page and market cap verification. |
| Near support | $19.50 to $20.00 | This zone overlaps the estimated 50-day moving average area. Holding it keeps the short-term uptrend intact. |
| Secondary support | $17.50 to $18.00 | This zone aligns with the estimated 200-day moving average. A break would weaken the current trend setup. |
| Long-term support | $15.25 to $15.50 | This area is near the 52-week low of $15.28. A decisive break would challenge the longer-term recovery trend. |
| Resistance | $20.90 to $21.50 | The 52-week high is $20.90. A breakout above this level with volume would confirm the momentum trend. |
| Higher resistance | $22.50 to $24.00 | A move into this zone would imply the market is extending the recovery toward analyst target ranges of $22-$24. |
| 50-day moving average | ~$19.80 | Estimated from the recent price trend. The stock has been above the 50-day MA since the recovery began. |
| 200-day moving average | ~$17.80 | Estimated from the 52-week price range. HR has held above this level through the multi-month rally. |
| Momentum | RSI ~65 | Momentum is positive but the stock is not yet overbought. A lower high after Q2 earnings would reduce confidence. |
| Volume | 20-day average ~3.8 million shares | Breakouts above $20.90 are more reliable if volume confirms on up days rather than fading at resistance. |
| Volatility | Beta 0.98 | Beta near 1.0 suggests the stock moves broadly with the market, but REITs can still reprice quickly when rates or FFO guidance change. |
| Invalidation | Close below $19.50 or lower FFO guide | A break below the estimated 50-day average, or a negative FFO guidance revision, would weaken the base case. |
HR AI trading strategy
The HR AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework, not personalized advice. It should be monitored through price versus moving averages, Q2 2026 earnings on July 30, normalized FFO guidance, same-store NOI, portfolio sales, debt metrics, dividend coverage, interest rates, and exchangeable note terms.
Track whether HR can hold above the estimated $19.50 50-day moving average zone and then clear $20.90 (52-week high) with improving volume. Confirmation improves if Q2 2026 results support the FFO guidance midpoint of $1.62 or raise it.
Reduce confidence if the stock loses the 50-day average, closes below $19.50, or Q2 2026 results include lower FFO guidance.
Use pullbacks toward the estimated 50-day moving average as a watchlist condition only if FFO trends, same-store NOI, lease-up metrics, and dividend coverage remain sound.
Do not treat the 4.64% yield as a guaranteed floor. If normalized FFO trends weaken or debt costs rise, the dividend and stock price can both come under pressure.
Track normalized FFO per share, same-store NOI growth, occupancy rates, portfolio sales progress, debt-to-EBITDA, interest coverage, dividend payout ratio, and share count trends.
A mix of lower FFO guidance, declining same-store NOI, rising interest costs, portfolio execution problems, and a close below the estimated 200-day average would override a bullish setup.
Investment research summary
Healthcare Realty Trust is paid because hospital systems and healthcare providers need on-campus or near-campus medical office space, and the company owns 563 properties across 28 states. The core business turns medical office lease cash flows into rent, FFO, dividends, and portfolio reinvestment capacity.
The moat is built from hospital-system relationships, on-campus location advantages, portfolio scale across 28 states, and property-level barriers to replacement. The moat is moderate because medical office real estate is competitive and off-campus alternatives exist.
The thesis can fail if the 2022 HTA merger integration and portfolio repositioning do not create expected efficiencies, GAAP losses persist, debt leverage limits financial flexibility, interest costs rise on $4.65 billion of debt, or the declining revenue trend from asset sales signals a shrinking earnings base.
Management has raised FFO guidance, executed $600 million in exchangeable note financing, launched a $600 million commercial paper program, and repurchased $102 million of stock in Q1 2026. The next test is whether the portfolio reshaping generates durable FFO per share growth rather than just balance sheet optimization.
The long-term trend is favorable because aging demographics and the migration of procedures to outpatient settings support demand for medical office space. The near-term cycle still depends on healthcare employment, hospital system budgets, construction costs, and interest rates.
The verified scenario model produced about $27.0 in the bull case (14x FFO with 6% growth), $21.9 in the base case (12x FFO with 4% growth), and $16.2 in the bear case (10x FFO with no growth). The margin of safety is limited because the current stock price near $20.69 is close to the base case and assumes continued FFO improvement.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| HR price | $20.69 close on July 10, 2026 | Barchart quote page | July 12, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $7.17 billion, verified as $20.69 x 346.5 million shares with 0.01% variance | financial_rigor.py market cap verification | July 12, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 346.5 million current shares outstanding | Barchart balance sheet data | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | $1.18 billion for trailing twelve months; Q1 2026 quarterly revenue was $279.0 million | Barchart financials | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM net income (GAAP) | -$246.1 million GAAP net loss attributable to common stockholders | Barchart financials | July 12, 2026 |
| Normalized FFO per share | Q1 2026 was $0.41 per share, beating estimates by $0.02. 2026 full-year guidance raised to $1.59-$1.65 | Seeking Alpha earnings data | July 12, 2026 |
| Cash, debt, and net cash | $26.2 million cash, $4.654 billion total debt, and negative $4.628 billion net cash | Barchart balance sheet | July 12, 2026 |
| Dividend yield | $0.96 annualized dividend per share, 4.64% forward yield | Barchart dividend data | July 12, 2026 |
| Valuation math | P/FFO ~12.8x using 2026 normalized FFO midpoint, 1.60x book value, 6.07x sales, PE not meaningful due to GAAP loss | financial_rigor.py valuation verification | July 12, 2026 |
| Technical indicators | Estimated 50-day MA ~$19.80, estimated 200-day MA ~$17.80, RSI ~65, beta 0.98, YTD return +22.4% | Barchart and TradingView technical data | July 12, 2026 |
| 52-week range | $15.28 (July 2025 low) to $20.90 (June 2026 high) | TradingView and Barchart | July 12, 2026 |
| Stock buyback | $102 million in stock repurchases during Q1 2026, signaling management confidence | Barchart cash flow statement | July 12, 2026 |
This HR AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a personalized trading plan. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available data and can be wrong if Healthcare Realty Trust fundamentals, interest rates, capital markets, portfolio execution, or investor sentiment change.
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