Houlihan Lokey, Inc. research snapshot
HLI AI stock analysis currently reads Houlihan Lokey as a high-quality independent investment bank whose clients pay for advice on mergers and acquisitions, capital solutions, financial restructuring, and valuation. Fiscal 2026 revenue rose to about $2.618 billion and net income attributable to Houlihan Lokey rose to about $425.7 million, but fourth-quarter revenue fell year over year as restructuring activity cooled. At the July 12, 2026 data cutoff, the latest available NYSE close was $135.33 on July 10, and market capitalization was about $9.35 billion. The HLI AI stock forecast uses scenarios because advisory fees, compensation, deal completions, and valuation multiples can change quickly. This is informational research, not investment advice.
Current price
$135.33
Market cap
About $9.35 billion
AI score
69 / 100
Rating
High-quality independent advisory franchise with strong cash generation and material M&A cycle exposure
Trend status
Below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages after a sharp drawdown from the 52-week high, with neutral to weak momentum
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Houlihan Lokey provides independent advice on M&A, capital solutions, restructuring, and financial and valuation matters. Revenue is generated when clients close transactions or use advisory services. | High |
| Moat | The moat is built on brand trust, senior banker relationships, specialist expertise, global execution, and independence from a large lending balance sheet. It is real but people-centric rather than protected by hard switching costs. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO Scott Adelson is balancing growth across three segments, compensation discipline, acquisitions, dividends, repurchases, and the retention of senior advisory talent. The controlled-company structure gives the HL Voting Trust about 74% of voting power at March 31, 2026. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2026 revenue grew 10% to $2.618 billion and net income attributable to Houlihan Lokey grew 7% to $425.7 million. Corporate Finance revenue grew 14%, while Financial Restructuring revenue declined 3%. | High |
| Valuation | At $135.33 and FY2026 diluted EPS of $6.22, financial_rigor.py calculated 21.76x PE, 4.01x PB, 13.59x P/FCF, and a 2.07% dividend yield. The valuation is not distressed, but the stock has repriced materially from its 52-week high. | High |
| Technical trend | The latest StockAnalysis snapshot showed price below the 50-day average near $144.63 and 200-day average near $166.39, with RSI near 41.01 and average 20-day volume near 701,419 shares. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Risk is medium-high because revenue depends on transaction closings, compensation is the largest expense, senior bankers can leave, and a controlled voting structure limits common shareholders influence. | High |
| AI confidence | The research has high confidence in historical data and math, but only medium confidence in forward price scenarios and short-term technical signals. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Investment certainty is medium. The business is high quality, but the stock still needs healthy deal activity and disciplined compensation to compound per-share value. | Medium |
HLI AI stock forecast
The HLI AI stock forecast is a three-year scenario framework, not a guaranteed target. Using FY2026 diluted EPS of $6.22, the required Pineify financial_rigor.py calculation produced about $236.5 in a bullish case, $156.7 in a base case, and $74.7 in a bearish case. These outputs are sensitive to both earnings growth and the terminal PE multiple.
$210 to $250
More likely if M&A and capital markets volumes recover, Corporate Finance growth remains strong, restructuring activity does not weaken further, senior banker productivity improves, compensation stays controlled, and investors support a 25x earnings multiple on roughly 15% annual EPS growth.
$140 to $175
More likely if deal activity grows at a measured pace, FY2026 earnings remain a durable base, compensation stays near recent ratios, dividends and repurchases continue, and the market assigns about 20x earnings to roughly 8% annual EPS growth.
$70 to $100
More likely if M&A volumes contract, large transactions slip or cancel, restructuring revenue declines, compensation remains sticky, key bankers depart, or investors apply about 14x earnings to a 5% annual EPS decline.
HLI AI technical analysis
HLI AI technical analysis is weak to neutral at the July 12, 2026 data cutoff. The latest available quote was $135.33 on July 10. StockAnalysis reported a 50-day moving average near $144.63, a 200-day moving average near $166.39, RSI near 41.01, and average 20-day volume near 701,419 shares. The technical picture shows a stock below major trend averages after a 52-week range of about $131.31 to $211.78.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $135.33 | July 10, 2026 NYSE close used for the static page and market-cap verification. |
| Primary support | $131 to $134 | The June 29 low near $131.31 and the early July consolidation area define the first downside review zone. |
| Secondary support | $120 to $125 | A deeper historical price zone to monitor if the 52-week low fails. This is a planning range, not a prediction. |
| Near resistance | $140 to $145 | The recent trading range and the 50-day moving average near $144.63 form the first overhead supply area. |
| Major resistance | $160 to $166 | The next recovery band includes prior trading areas and the 200-day moving average near $166.39. |
| 50-day SMA | About $144.63 | StockAnalysis reported price below this average in its latest technical snapshot. |
| 200-day SMA | About $166.39 | StockAnalysis reported price below this longer-term average, keeping the broad trend under pressure. |
| Momentum | RSI about 41.01 | Momentum was weak to neutral and not at the common oversold threshold of 30. |
| Volume | About 701,419 shares average | Use above-average volume to distinguish a durable reclaim from a low-liquidity bounce. |
| Volatility | 14-day ATR about $4.46 | TipRanks reported this ATR snapshot on July 2. A live chart should be checked before using it for position sizing. |
| Invalidation | Sustained close below $131 | A confirmed break of the recent low would weaken the rebound setup and require a fresh fundamental review. |
HLI AI trading strategy
The HLI AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework, not personalized advice. It should be paired with live price data, position sizing, earnings dates, deal-volume indicators, and a defined invalidation rule.
Wait for HLI to reclaim the $144 to $145 area near the 50-day average, then look for sustained price action with improving volume and evidence that Corporate Finance and capital markets activity are strengthening.
A failed reclaim or a close back below the selected support area invalidates the near-term trend setup before losses become open-ended.
If HLI stabilizes near $131 to $134 without a new earnings or deal-market deterioration, compare the price move with EPS, free cash flow, compensation ratio, cash, and the next earnings date.
Do not average down solely because RSI is near 40. Recheck deal completions, banker retention, restructuring revenue, and the reason for the selloff first.
Track revenue and segment profit by Corporate Finance, Financial Restructuring, and Financial and Valuation Advisory; compensation ratio; closed transactions; senior banker headcount; cash and securities; dividends; repurchases; and controlled-company governance.
Reduce confidence if revenue slows while compensation remains sticky, large deals fail to close, acquisition earnouts rise, or per-share value does not keep pace with reported net income.
Investment research summary
Houlihan Lokey gets paid when companies, boards, financial sponsors, creditors, and shareholders need trusted advice on complex transactions. Clients pay for senior judgment, specialist expertise, and execution in M&A, restructuring, capital solutions, and valuation rather than for a lending balance sheet.
The moat is brand reputation, senior banker density, boardroom relationships, specialist restructuring knowledge, global reach, and independence. Switching costs are soft because clients can change advisors, so the moat must be renewed by winning mandates and retaining people.
The thesis fails if M&A markets contract, restructuring revenue keeps falling, compensation absorbs too much revenue, large transactions cancel, key bankers leave, acquisitions disappoint, or the stock multiple compresses as investors recognize the cyclicality of advisory earnings.
CEO Scott Adelson leads a firm with a concentrated voting structure. The key capital-allocation tests are disciplined acquisitions, sustainable dividends and repurchases, compensation control, and whether growth creates value per share. The HL Voting Trust controlled about 74% of voting power at March 31, 2026.
Corporate consolidation, private capital, regulation, liability management, and the need for independent valuation support long-term demand for advisory services. The counterforce is that advisory fees are linked to market confidence, financing conditions, transaction volume, and the ability to close deals.
At $135.33, the stock trades around 21.76x FY2026 EPS and 13.59x reported free cash flow per share. Cash and investment securities of about $1.36 billion support resilience, but margin of safety depends on whether earnings normalize upward rather than reverting after a strong Corporate Finance year.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price and market capitalization | $135.33 close on July 10, 2026 and about $9.35 billion market cap on about 69.06 million shares | StockAnalysis market-cap page, historical quote data, and SEC share disclosures | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2026 revenue and segment mix | $2.618 billion revenue; Corporate Finance $1.745B, Financial Restructuring $529M, Financial and Valuation Advisory $344M | SEC FY2026 Form 10-K and Houlihan Lokey FY2026 results release | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2026 net income and EPS | $425.7 million net income attributable to Houlihan Lokey and $6.22 diluted EPS | SEC FY2026 Form 10-K, company results release, and StockAnalysis financials | July 12, 2026 |
| Cash, securities, and debt | $1.190B cash plus $170.3M investment securities, with about $492.1M operating lease liabilities at March 31, 2026 | SEC FY2026 Form 10-K and StockAnalysis statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Free cash flow | About $681.82 million TTM, or $9.96 per share, from $704.13M operating cash flow less $22.31M capital expenditures | StockAnalysis financials and statistics; cash-flow definitions can vary by provider | July 12, 2026 |
| Valuation math | 21.76x PE, 4.01x PB, 13.59x P/FCF, 7.36% FCF yield, and 2.07% dividend yield | Pineify financial_rigor.py using the July 10 quote and FY2026 per-share data | July 12, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 50-day SMA about $144.63, 200-day SMA about $166.39, RSI about 41.01, average 20-day volume about 701,419 shares | StockAnalysis technical statistics; TipRanks supplied a July 2 ATR snapshot near $4.46 | July 12, 2026 |
| Share classes and governance | 54.22M Class A shares and 15.27M Class B shares at March 31, 2026; Class B has ten votes per share and the HL Voting Trust held about 74% of voting power | SEC FY2026 Form 10-K | July 12, 2026 |
This HLI AI stock analysis page is an informational tool only. It is not investment advice, tax advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on public data available as of July 12, 2026 and may be wrong if earnings, transaction markets, compensation, management decisions, governance, interest rates, market prices, or other conditions change.
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