Houlihan Lokey, Inc. research snapshot
HLI AI stock analysis currently reads Houlihan Lokey as a high-quality independent investment bank whose clients pay for advice on mergers and acquisitions, capital solutions, financial restructuring, and valuation. The first quarter of fiscal 2027, reported July 29, 2026, was a clear miss: revenue fell to $511 million from $605 million a year earlier and adjusted diluted EPS fell to $1.35 from $2.14 as Corporate Finance revenue dropped 24% on delayed large transactions, instability in the Middle East, and disruption in the software sector. At the August 3, 2026 data cutoff, the latest available NYSE close was $125.49 on July 31, and market capitalization was about $8.77 billion. Management reports record backlog and new mandate activity and calls the quarter a temporary disruption rather than a cyclical downturn, but the HLI AI stock forecast still uses scenarios because advisory fees, compensation, deal completions, and valuation multiples can change quickly. This is informational research, not investment advice.
Current price
$125.49 at the July 31, 2026 close
Market cap
About $8.77 billion, verified against reported figures
AI score
64 / 100
Rating
High-quality independent advisory franchise now facing a cyclical slowdown in deal closings and a sharp post-earnings repricing
Trend status
Below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages after the July 29, 2026 earnings breakdown, with weak momentum and RSI near 34
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Houlihan Lokey provides independent advice on M&A, capital solutions, restructuring, and financial and valuation matters. Revenue is generated when clients close transactions or use advisory services, which makes results sensitive to deal timing. | High |
| Moat | The moat is built on brand trust, senior banker relationships, specialist expertise, global execution, and independence from a large lending balance sheet. It is real but people-centric rather than protected by hard switching costs. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO Scott Adelson and CFO J. Lindsey Alley held the adjusted compensation ratio at 61.5% in Q1 fiscal 2027, raised the dividend to $0.70 per share per quarter, repurchased 348 thousand shares, and agreed to acquire Intrepid Financial Partners. The HL Voting Trust controlled about 74% of voting power as of July 23, 2026. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Q1 fiscal 2027 revenue fell 16% to $511 million and adjusted diluted EPS fell to $1.35. TTM revenue is about $2.52 billion, TTM net income about $405.7 million, and TTM EPS about $5.95, while FY2026 revenue was $2.618 billion and diluted EPS was $6.22. | High |
| Valuation | At $125.49, financial_rigor.py calculated about 21.1x TTM PE, 3.89x PB, 18.1x P/FCF, and a 2.23% dividend yield. The forward PE is about 16x on consensus adjusted fiscal 2027 EPS. The stock is not distressed, but it has repriced sharply from its 52-week high. | High |
| Technical trend | The StockAnalysis snapshot showed price below the 50-day average near $139.79 and 200-day average near $161.06, with RSI near 34.25 and average 20-day volume near 1,059,529 shares. The 52-week range is $112.83 to $211.78. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Risk is medium-high because revenue depends on transaction closings that are currently delayed, compensation is the largest expense, senior bankers can leave, software and Middle East conditions are uncertain, and a controlled voting structure limits common shareholders influence. | High |
| AI confidence | The research has high confidence in historical data and math, but only medium confidence in forward price scenarios and short-term technical signals. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Investment certainty is medium. The business is high quality, but the stock needs delayed transactions to close, compensation discipline to hold, and a recovery above the 50-day average to build confidence. | Medium |
HLI AI stock forecast
The HLI AI stock forecast is a three-year scenario framework, not a guaranteed target. Using consensus adjusted fiscal 2027 EPS near $7.90, the required Pineify financial_rigor.py calculation produced about $199.8 in a bullish case, $149.3 in a base case, and $81.3 in a bearish case with 12%, 8%, and -5% annual EPS growth and 18x, 15x, and 12x exit multiples. These outputs are sensitive to deal closings, earnings growth, and the terminal PE multiple.
$185 to $215
More likely if Middle East instability fades, delayed large transactions close on schedule, software and technology valuations stabilize, Corporate Finance revenue recovers toward prior-year levels, restructuring stays elevated, backlog converts into fees, and investors support an 18x multiple on roughly 12% annual EPS growth.
$140 to $160
More likely if deal activity normalizes gradually through fiscal 2027 and 2028, fiscal 2027 adjusted EPS approaches consensus near $7.90, the compensation ratio stays near 61.5%, restructuring remains solid, FVA keeps growing, and the market assigns about 15x earnings to roughly 8% annual EPS growth.
$75 to $95
More likely if headwinds persist for multiple quarters, large fee deals keep slipping, fiscal 2027 EPS comes in below consensus, compensation remains sticky, key bankers depart, or investors apply about 12x earnings to a 5% annual EPS decline.
HLI AI technical analysis
HLI AI technical analysis is weak at the August 3, 2026 data cutoff. The latest available quote was $125.49 on July 31. After the July 29 earnings miss the stock fell 4.4% on July 29, 7.7% on July 30 to an intraday 52-week low of $112.83 on heavy volume, and 2.2% on July 31. StockAnalysis reported a 50-day moving average near $139.79, a 200-day moving average near $161.06, RSI near 34.25, and average 20-day volume near 1,059,529 shares.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $125.49 | July 31, 2026 NYSE close used for the static page and market-cap verification. |
| Primary support | $112.83 | The July 30, 2026 intraday 52-week low is the key downside reference after the earnings breakdown. |
| Secondary support | $105 to $110 | A deeper historical planning zone below the recent low. This is a planning range, not a prediction. |
| Near resistance | $128.34 to $129.41 | The July 30 close and high form the first overhead supply area above the current price. |
| Secondary resistance | $138 to $140 | The July 29 earnings-day close near $139.08 and the 50-day moving average near $139.79 sit in this band. |
| Major resistance | $145 to $147 | The July 28 close near $145.47 and pre-earnings trading define the next recovery band. |
| 50-day SMA | About $139.79 | StockAnalysis reported price well below this average in its latest technical snapshot. |
| 200-day SMA | About $161.06 | StockAnalysis reported price below this longer-term average, keeping the broad trend under pressure. |
| Momentum | RSI about 34.25 | Momentum was weak and approaching, but not at, the common oversold threshold of 30. |
| Volume | About 1,059,529 shares average | The July 30 session saw about 3.8 million shares on the earnings breakdown. Use above-average volume to confirm any reclaim. |
| Volatility | 14-day ATR about $5.70 | Computed from StockAnalysis daily ranges around the July 30 volatility spike. A live chart should be checked before using it for position sizing. |
| Invalidation | Sustained close below $112.83 | A confirmed break of the 52-week low would weaken the setup further and require a fresh fundamental review. |
HLI AI trading strategy
The HLI AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework, not personalized advice. It should be paired with live price data, position sizing, earnings dates, deal-completion indicators, and a defined invalidation rule.
Wait for HLI to reclaim the $138 to $140 area near the 50-day average with above-average volume and evidence that delayed Corporate Finance transactions are closing and backlog is converting to fees.
A failed reclaim or a close back below $128 invalidates the near-term trend setup before losses become open-ended.
If HLI stabilizes near $112.83 to $120 without new earnings or deal-market deterioration, compare the price move with TTM EPS, free cash flow, the compensation ratio, cash and securities, backlog commentary, and the next earnings date.
Do not average down solely because RSI is near 34. Recheck deal-completion timing, banker retention, restructuring revenue, and software and Middle East conditions first.
Track quarterly revenue by Corporate Finance, Financial Restructuring, and Financial and Valuation Advisory; closed transactions and fee events; the adjusted compensation ratio near 61.5%; senior managing director headcount; cash and securities; dividends; repurchases; the effective tax rate; and the Intrepid acquisition close.
Reduce confidence if revenue slows while compensation stays sticky, large deals keep slipping, fiscal 2027 EPS estimates fall, key bankers depart, or per-share value does not keep pace with reported net income.
Investment research summary
Houlihan Lokey gets paid when companies, boards, financial sponsors, creditors, and shareholders need trusted advice on complex transactions. Clients pay for senior judgment, specialist expertise, and execution in M&A, restructuring, capital solutions, and valuation rather than for a lending balance sheet. Q1 fiscal 2027 showed the model is cycle-driven: transaction count held up, but a mix shift toward lower-fee work cut revenue.
The moat is brand reputation, senior banker density, boardroom relationships, specialist restructuring knowledge, global reach, and independence. Switching costs are soft because clients can change advisors, so the moat must be renewed by winning mandates and retaining people.
The thesis fails if M&A markets stay weak, delayed large transactions keep slipping, software disruption persists, compensation absorbs too much revenue, key bankers leave, acquisitions disappoint, or the stock multiple compresses as investors recognize the cyclicality of advisory earnings.
CEO Scott Adelson and CFO J. Lindsey Alley run a firm with a concentrated voting structure. The key capital-allocation tests are disciplined acquisitions such as Intrepid Financial Partners, sustainable dividends and repurchases, compensation control, and whether growth creates value per share. The HL Voting Trust controlled about 74% of voting power as of July 23, 2026.
Corporate consolidation, private capital, regulation, liability management, and the need for independent valuation support long-term demand for advisory services. The counterforce is that advisory fees are linked to market confidence, financing conditions, transaction volume, and the ability to close deals, all of which are currently constrained by Middle East instability and software sector disruption.
At $125.49, the stock trades around 21.1x TTM EPS, about 16x forward adjusted fiscal 2027 EPS, and 18.1x reported free cash flow per share. Cash and investment securities of about $797 million at June 30, 2026 support resilience, but margin of safety depends on whether delayed deals close and earnings recover rather than continuing to slip.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price and market capitalization | $125.49 close on July 31, 2026 and about $8.77 billion market cap on about 69.89 million shares | StockAnalysis market-cap page and historical quote data, verified with Pineify financial_rigor.py | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 fiscal 2027 results | Revenue $511 million, GAAP diluted EPS $1.15, adjusted diluted EPS $1.35, and adjusted net income attributable of $91 million | Q1 fiscal 2027 earnings release, Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1 filed July 30, 2026 | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 fiscal 2027 segment detail | Corporate Finance $303M (-24%), Financial Restructuring $119M (-8%), Financial and Valuation Advisory $89M (+13%); CF closed 127 transactions, FR closed 23, FVA had 1,042 fee events | Q1 fiscal 2027 earnings release and Q1 fiscal 2027 earnings call transcript | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2026 revenue and segment mix | $2.618 billion revenue; Corporate Finance $1.745B, Financial Restructuring $528.7M, Financial and Valuation Advisory $344.2M | SEC FY2026 Form 10-K filed May 22, 2026 and StockAnalysis financials | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2026 net income and EPS | $425.7 million net income attributable to Houlihan Lokey and $6.22 diluted EPS | SEC FY2026 Form 10-K and StockAnalysis financials | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM financials through June 30, 2026 | Revenue about $2.52 billion, net income about $405.7 million, EPS about $5.95, operating cash flow $500.1 million, and free cash flow $484.8 million or $6.94 per share | StockAnalysis financials and statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Cash, securities, and debt | $745M cash plus $52M investment securities, or $797 million total, with about $493 million of total debt and about $304 million of net cash at June 30, 2026 | Q1 fiscal 2027 earnings release and Form 10-Q | August 3, 2026 |
| Valuation math | About 21.1x TTM PE, 16x forward PE, 3.89x PB, 18.1x P/FCF, and 2.23% dividend yield | Pineify financial_rigor.py using the July 31 quote and TTM per-share data | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 50-day SMA about $139.79, 200-day SMA about $161.06, RSI about 34.25, average 20-day volume about 1,059,529 shares, and a 52-week range of $112.83 to $211.78 | StockAnalysis technical statistics and daily history; 14-day ATR about $5.70 computed from daily ranges | August 3, 2026 |
| Share classes and governance | 54.2M Class A shares and 15.7M Class B shares at June 30, 2026; Class B has ten votes per share and the HL Voting Trust controlled about 74% of voting power as of July 23, 2026 | Q1 fiscal 2027 Form 10-Q and DEF 14A proxy | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy rating from 11 analysts with an average price target of $153 and a range of $145 to $177 | StockAnalysis forecast page | August 3, 2026 |
| Dividend | $0.70 per share per quarter, or $2.80 annualized, a 2.23% yield, with the next ex-dividend date on September 1, 2026 and 10 years of dividend growth | StockAnalysis dividend page and Q1 fiscal 2027 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
This HLI AI stock analysis page is an informational tool only. It is not investment advice, tax advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on public data available as of August 3, 2026 and may be wrong if earnings, transaction closings, compensation, management decisions, governance, interest rates, market prices, or other conditions change.
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