Hecla Mining Company research snapshot
HL AI stock analysis currently reads Hecla Mining as the largest silver producer in the United States and Canada, with gold, lead, and zinc by-products, record 2025 earnings, a debt-free balance sheet after the April 2026 note redemption, and earnings that remain highly sensitive to silver and gold prices. The page uses scenarios rather than a certain price prediction. At the July 12, 2026 data cutoff, the latest available NYSE close was about $15.82, and verified market capitalization was about $10.61 billion on roughly 670.71 million shares. This is informational research, not investment advice.
Current price
$15.82
Market cap
About $10.61 billion
AI score
66 / 100
Rating
Debt-free U.S. and Canadian silver producer with record cash flow and high metal-price sensitivity
Trend status
Fundamentals improved while price sits below the 50-day and 200-day averages after a large pullback from the 52-week high
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Hecla mines and sells silver, gold, lead, and zinc from operations including Greens Creek, Lucky Friday, and Keno Hill, earning the spread between realized metal prices and mine and processing costs. | High |
| Moat | The moat is asset and jurisdiction based: long-life underground silver assets in the U.S. and Canada, operating know-how, processing infrastructure, and a balance sheet that can fund exploration and sustaining capital through cycles. | Medium |
| Management | President and CEO Rob Krcmarov, appointed in November 2024 after a Barrick Gold leadership career, is being tested on capital allocation after the Casa Berardi sale, senior-note redemption, and the shift to a debt-free balance sheet. | Medium |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue was about $1.423 billion and net income was about $321 million ($0.49 per share). Free cash flow was about $311 million. Q1 2026 continuing operations delivered about $411 million revenue, $165 million net income, and record free cash flow near $144 million. | High |
| Valuation | Using $15.82, $0.49 FY2025 EPS, about $3.83 book value per share, and about $0.464 free cash flow per share from $311 million FY2025 free cash flow, the tool calculated about 32.29x P/E, 4.13x P/B, and 34.12x P/FCF. Market TTM P/E near 22.7x implies higher trailing earnings power after Q1 2026. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | Near $15.82, HL sat below Chartmill 50-day and 200-day simple moving-average readings of about $16.76 and $18.10, with RSI near 48.73 after a large drawdown from the 52-week high near $34.17. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is high because silver and gold prices, grade variability, underground operating interruptions, cost inflation, reserve replacement, and commodity-equity multiples can move value quickly. | High |
| AI confidence | High for source-backed history and valuation arithmetic. Lower for metal prices, mine results, and the future share price. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium-low certainty because balance-sheet repair is visible, but a silver miner cannot control realized metal prices or fully eliminate geological, cost, and production risk. | Medium-low |
HL AI stock forecast
The HL AI stock forecast uses a three-year scenario framework around the $15.82 cutoff price. Using FY2025 EPS of $0.49 with growth of 25%, 5%, and -25% and terminal P/E of 28x, 16x, and 8x, the financial-rigor model produced values near $26.80 in the bullish case, $9.10 in the base case, and $1.70 in the bearish case. These are scenario outputs, not promises.
$24 to $30
More likely if silver and gold stay supportive, Greens Creek, Lucky Friday, and Keno Hill deliver planned ounces, free cash flow remains strong on the debt-free balance sheet, and the stock reclaims the 50-day and 200-day averages on improving volume.
$8 to $14
More likely if Hecla maintains solid operations and liquidity while metal prices and valuation multiples normalize from recent highs, keeping the stock closer to mid-cycle earnings power.
$2 to $5
More likely if silver prices weaken sharply, costs rise, underground production misses plan, free cash flow fades, or technical weakness persists below long-term moving averages with multiple compression.
HL AI technical analysis
HL AI technical analysis uses market data available around the July 12, 2026 cutoff. The latest close near $15.82 was below Chartmill 50-day and 200-day simple moving-average readings of about $16.76 and $18.10. RSI was near 48.73. Support was noted near $15.67 to $15.81, with resistance near $15.91 and $16.33 to $16.46. This static page does not fetch request-time chart data, so confirm price, volume, moving averages, and momentum in a live chart before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | About $15.82 | Latest NYSE close near the cutoff, consistent with about $10.61 billion market capitalization on roughly 670.71 million shares. |
| Near support | $15.67 to $15.81 | Chartmill support zone near the cutoff price and recent consolidation range, not a guaranteed floor. |
| Deeper support | $13.91 to $14.77 | Recent multi-week lows and Chartmill support bands are wider risk-planning zones that should be checked against a live chart. |
| Near resistance | $15.91 to $16.46 | Near-term resistance and the path back toward the 50-day average. |
| 50-day moving average | About $16.76 | Chartmill reported this SMA50 reading around the cutoff. Price below it indicates short-term trend pressure. |
| 200-day moving average | About $18.10 | Chartmill reported this SMA200 reading around the cutoff. A reclaim would strengthen the longer-term technical case. |
| Momentum | RSI about 48.73 | The reported RSI was near neutral and is not by itself a buy or sell signal. |
| Volume | About 23 million average NYSE shares | Breakouts and breakdowns deserve more weight when volume is above the recent average. |
| Volatility | Commodity-sensitive; ATR about 5.7% | Silver prices, operating updates, and sector risk-on or risk-off moves can create gaps that make position sizing important. |
| Invalidation | Sustained close below $13.91 | A confirmed break of the recent multi-week low area would require a fresh review of price action and the silver-price thesis. |
HL AI trading strategy
The HL AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework, not personalized advice. It should be used with live chart data, defined position size, stop or invalidation rules, silver and gold price context, and current filings.
Wait for HL to regain and hold the 50-day average near $16.76, then assess whether volume and silver-price momentum support a move toward the 200-day average near $18.10 and the prior recovery zone.
A failed reclaim or a close below the selected support level should invalidate the setup before losses become open-ended.
If HL stabilizes near $15.67 to $15.81 while silver remains firm, compare the price move with production, costs, free cash flow, cash balance, and remaining exploration or sustaining capital needs.
Do not average down merely because RSI is neutral or soft. Reassess the thesis if silver prices, grades, costs, or mine schedules deteriorate.
Track realized silver and gold prices, ounces produced and sold at Greens Creek, Lucky Friday, and Keno Hill, cash costs and AISC where disclosed, free cash flow, cash, any new debt or credit-facility draws, dividends, and reserve or resource updates.
Reduce confidence when the stock story depends on high silver prices without matching production, cost, or cash-flow execution.
Investment research summary
Hecla Mining turns permitted silver-dominant reserves, underground mines, mills, and operating teams into metal sales. Customers effectively pay market silver, gold, lead, and zinc prices. The economic result is driven by ounces and pounds sold, realized prices, and cost per unit across U.S. and Canadian assets.
The defensible advantage is not consumer branding. It is the difficulty of replicating long-life silver mines in stable jurisdictions, underground mining skill, processing capacity, exploration optionality, and a balance sheet that can fund sustaining and growth capital through metal-price cycles.
The thesis can fail if silver prices retreat while costs rise, underground production or grades disappoint, Keno Hill or other assets underdeliver, reserve replacement stalls, or commodity-equity multiples compress after a strong multi-year run.
Management under Rob Krcmarov is being tested on capital allocation: operating delivery after the Casa Berardi sale, keeping the company debt-free after the April 2026 senior-note redemption, funding exploration and sustaining capital, and returning cash without overstretching the balance sheet.
Silver benefits from industrial demand, investment demand, and co-product dynamics with gold and base metals. Primary silver producers can re-rate when free cash flow rises with metal prices. Miners still face cyclicality, energy and labor inflation, geological risk, and permitting or community issues.
At about $15.82, HL discounts some of the earlier 2025-2026 silver-equity enthusiasm after a large pullback from the high near $34.17. Margin of safety depends on whether high metal margins, debt-free liquidity, and mine delivery persist when prices, costs, or production schedules are less favorable.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current price and market capitalization | About $15.82 price and $10.61 billion market capitalization on roughly 670.71 million shares | Google Finance close and market cap, Macrotrends market cap, and financial_rigor.py market-cap verification | July 12, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | About 670.71 million shares outstanding, cross-validated near 670.39 million on CompaniesMarketCap | Google Finance and CompaniesMarketCap shares outstanding | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | About $1.423 billion, up about 53% from 2024, cross-validated against company year-end summary of about $1.4 billion | Macrotrends revenue history and company FY2025 results summary | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 earnings and free cash flow | Net income about $321 million ($0.49 per share), free cash flow about $311 million | Macrotrends net income and free cash flow history, and Yahoo company results summary | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 production | About 17.03 million silver ounces, 150,509 gold ounces, 56,130 lead tons, and 68,558 zinc tons | Hecla company-wide production table for year ended December 31, 2025 | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 operating results | About $411 million continuing revenue, $165 million net income from continuing operations ($0.25 per share), and record free cash flow from continuing operations near $144 million | Hecla Q1 2026 earnings release summaries | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 cash and debt position | About $588 million cash at March 31, 2026; remaining senior notes redeemed April 9, 2026, leaving no long-term debt and an undrawn revolving credit facility near $225 million | Hecla Q1 2026 results and subsequent note-redemption summaries | July 12, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | Price about $15.82, SMA50 about $16.76, SMA200 about $18.10, RSI about 48.73, 52-week range about $5.62 to $34.17, average volume about 23.0 million shares | Chartmill technicals and market range data | July 12, 2026 |
| Financial-rigor verification | Market-cap math passed at 0.01% variance; FY2025 revenue, FY2025 net income, shares outstanding, FY2025 free cash flow, and Q1 2026 cash cross-validation passed; valuation and three-scenario calculations were run locally | Pineify tools/financial_rigor.py local run | July 12, 2026 |
This HL AI stock analysis page is an informational tool only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a guarantee of returns. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available public data as of July 12, 2026 and can be wrong if silver or gold prices, costs, production, capital allocation, valuation multiples, or market conditions change.
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