Hecla Mining Company research snapshot
HL AI stock analysis currently reads Hecla Mining as the largest silver producer in the United States and Canada, with gold, lead, and zinc by-products, no long-term debt after the April 2026 senior-note redemption, and record recent free cash flow, while earnings remain highly sensitive to silver and gold prices. The page uses scenarios rather than a certain price prediction. At the August 3, 2026 data cutoff, the latest available NYSE close was about $14.12 on July 31, 2026, and verified market capitalization was about $9.47 billion on roughly 670.71 million shares. This is informational research, not investment advice.
Current price
$14.12
Market cap
About $9.47 billion
AI score
67 / 100
Rating
Debt-free U.S. and Canadian silver producer with record cash flow, trading well below its 52-week high after a sharp pullback
Trend status
Price sits below the 50-day and 200-day averages with negative short-term and long-term trend signals after a large drawdown from the 52-week high near $34.17
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Hecla mines and sells silver, gold, lead, and zinc from operations including Greens Creek, Lucky Friday, and Keno Hill, earning the spread between realized metal prices and mine and processing costs. | High |
| Moat | The moat is asset and jurisdiction based: long-life underground silver assets in the U.S. and Canada, operating know-how, processing infrastructure, and a balance sheet that can fund exploration and sustaining capital through cycles. | Medium |
| Management | President and CEO Rob Krcmarov, appointed in November 2024 after a Barrick Gold leadership career, is being tested on capital allocation after the Casa Berardi sale, senior-note redemption, and the shift to a debt-free balance sheet. | Medium |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue was about $1.423 billion and net income was about $321 million ($0.49 per share). FY2025 free cash flow was about $310 million. Q1 2026 continuing operations delivered about $411 million revenue, record adjusted EBITDA of about $265 million, and record consolidated free cash flow of about $144 million, with every mine free cash flow positive. | High |
| Valuation | Using $14.12, $0.49 FY2025 EPS, about $3.83 book value per share, and about $0.70 TTM free cash flow per share, the tool calculated about 28.8x P/E on FY2025 EPS, about 34.4x P/E on TTM GAAP EPS, 3.69x P/B, and about 20x P/FCF. S&P data showed a trailing adjusted P/E near 20.5x and a forward P/E near 16.2x. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | Near $14.12, HL sat below Chartmill 50-day and 200-day simple moving-average readings of about $15.71 and $18.31, with RSI near 41 and both short-term and long-term trend signals down after a large drawdown from the 52-week high near $34.17. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is high because silver and gold prices, grade variability, underground operating interruptions, cost inflation, reserve replacement, and commodity-equity multiples can move value quickly. | High |
| AI confidence | High for source-backed history and valuation arithmetic. Lower for metal prices, mine results, and the future share price. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium-low certainty because the balance sheet is strong and debt-free, but a silver miner cannot control realized metal prices or fully eliminate geological, cost, and production risk. | Medium-low |
HL AI stock forecast
The HL AI stock forecast uses a three-year scenario framework around the $14.12 cutoff price. Using FY2025 EPS of $0.49 with growth of 25%, 5%, and -25% and terminal P/E of 28x, 16x, and 8x, the financial-rigor model produced values near $26.80 in the bullish case, $9.10 in the base case, and $1.70 in the bearish case. These are scenario outputs, not promises.
$24 to $30
More likely if silver and gold stay supportive, Greens Creek, Lucky Friday, and Keno Hill deliver planned ounces, free cash flow remains strong on the debt-free balance sheet, and the stock reclaims the 50-day and 200-day averages on improving volume.
$8 to $14
More likely if Hecla maintains solid operations and liquidity while metal prices and valuation multiples normalize from recent highs, keeping the stock closer to mid-cycle earnings power.
$2 to $5
More likely if silver prices weaken sharply, costs rise, underground production misses plan, free cash flow fades, or technical weakness persists below long-term moving averages with multiple compression.
HL AI technical analysis
HL AI technical analysis uses market data available around the August 3, 2026 cutoff. The latest close near $14.12 on July 31, 2026 was below Chartmill 50-day and 200-day simple moving-average readings of about $15.71 and $18.31. RSI was near 41.05 and both short-term and long-term trends were down. Support was noted near $14.04 to $14.11, with resistance near $14.77 to $14.87 and $15.12 to $15.30. This static page does not fetch request-time chart data, so confirm price, volume, moving averages, and momentum in a live chart before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | About $14.12 | Latest NYSE close on July 31, 2026, consistent with about $9.47 billion market capitalization on roughly 670.71 million shares. |
| Near support | $14.04 to $14.11 | Chartmill support zone formed by multiple trend lines in multiple time frames, not a guaranteed floor. |
| Deeper support | $13.79 to $13.94 | Recent 10-day and 20-day lows near $13.79 and the recent daily low near $13.94 are wider risk-planning zones that should be checked against a live chart. |
| Near resistance | $14.77 to $14.87 | Chartmill resistance zone formed by trend lines and moving averages in the daily time frame. |
| Next resistance | $15.12 to $15.30 | A wider resistance zone from trend lines and moving averages in multiple time frames on the path back toward the 50-day average. |
| 50-day moving average | About $15.71 | Chartmill and S&P reported this SMA50 reading around the cutoff. Price below it indicates short-term trend pressure. |
| 200-day moving average | About $18.31 | Chartmill and S&P reported this SMA200 reading around the cutoff. A reclaim would strengthen the longer-term technical case. |
| Momentum | RSI about 41 | The reported RSI near 41.05 was below neutral and not by itself a buy or sell signal. |
| Volume | About 31.6 million average shares per Chartmill | Breakouts and breakdowns deserve more weight when volume is above the recent average. |
| Volatility | Commodity-sensitive; ATR about 5.8% | Silver prices, operating updates, and sector risk-on or risk-off moves can create gaps that make position sizing important. |
| Invalidation | Sustained close below $13.79 | A confirmed break of the recent 20-day low area would require a fresh review of price action and the silver-price thesis. |
HL AI trading strategy
The HL AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework, not personalized advice. It should be used with live chart data, defined position size, stop or invalidation rules, silver and gold price context, and current filings.
Wait for HL to stabilize above the $14.04 to $14.11 support zone and then reclaim the 50-day average near $15.71, and assess whether volume and silver-price momentum support a move toward the $15.70 to $16.72 resistance band and the 200-day average near $18.31.
A failed reclaim or a close below the selected support level should invalidate the setup before losses become open-ended.
If HL holds near $14.04 to $14.11 while silver remains firm, compare the price move with production, costs, free cash flow, cash balance, and remaining exploration or sustaining capital needs.
Do not average down merely because RSI is near 41 or the trend is weak. Reassess the thesis if silver prices, grades, costs, or mine schedules deteriorate.
Track realized silver and gold prices, ounces produced and sold at Greens Creek, Lucky Friday, and Keno Hill, cash costs and AISC where disclosed, free cash flow, cash, any new debt or credit-facility draws, dividends, and reserve or resource updates, plus Q2 2026 results due August 4, 2026.
Reduce confidence when the stock story depends on high silver prices without matching production, cost, or cash-flow execution.
Investment research summary
Hecla Mining turns permitted silver-dominant reserves, underground mines, mills, and operating teams into metal sales. Customers effectively pay market silver, gold, lead, and zinc prices. The economic result is driven by ounces and pounds sold, realized prices, and cost per unit across U.S. and Canadian assets.
The defensible advantage is not consumer branding. It is the difficulty of replicating long-life silver mines in stable jurisdictions, underground mining skill, processing capacity, exploration optionality, and a balance sheet that can fund sustaining and growth capital through metal-price cycles.
The thesis can fail if silver prices retreat while costs rise, underground production or grades disappoint, Keno Hill or other assets underdeliver, reserve replacement stalls, or commodity-equity multiples compress after a strong multi-year run. Silver futures fell below $60 per ounce in late July 2026 for the first time that year, a reminder of how fast sentiment can shift.
Management under Rob Krcmarov is being tested on capital allocation: operating delivery after the Casa Berardi sale, keeping the company debt-free after the April 2026 senior-note redemption, funding exploration and sustaining capital, and returning cash without overstretching the balance sheet.
Silver benefits from industrial demand, investment demand, and co-product dynamics with gold and base metals. The World Silver Survey confirmed 2025 as a fifth consecutive year of supply deficit. Primary silver producers can re-rate when free cash flow rises with metal prices, but miners still face cyclicality, energy and labor inflation, geological risk, and permitting or community issues.
At about $14.12, HL discounts much of the earlier 2025-2026 silver-equity enthusiasm after a large pullback from the high near $34.17. Margin of safety depends on whether high metal margins, debt-free liquidity, and mine delivery persist when prices, costs, or production schedules are less favorable.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current price and market capitalization | About $14.12 price on July 31, 2026 and $9.47 billion market capitalization on roughly 670.71 million shares | Google Finance close and market cap, Macrotrends market cap, StockAnalysis, and financial_rigor.py market-cap verification | August 3, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | About 670.71 million shares outstanding, cross-validated on Google Finance and StockAnalysis | Google Finance and StockAnalysis shares outstanding | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | About $1.423 billion, up about 53% from 2024, cross-validated on StockAnalysis and Macrotrends | StockAnalysis and Macrotrends revenue history | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 earnings and free cash flow | Net income about $321 million ($0.49 per share), free cash flow about $310 million, cross-validated on StockAnalysis and Macrotrends | StockAnalysis and Macrotrends net income and cash flow history | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 production | About 17 million silver ounces, 150,509 gold ounces, 56,130 lead tons, and 68,558 zinc tons | Hecla company-wide production table for year ended December 31, 2025 | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 operating results | About $411 million continuing revenue, record adjusted EBITDA of about $265 million, record consolidated free cash flow of about $144 million, and net income from continuing operations of about $165 million ($0.25 per share); GAAP consolidated net income was about -$19 million, reflecting Casa Berardi sale-related items | Hecla Q1 2026 earnings release and earnings call transcript | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 cash and debt position | About $588 million cash at March 31, 2026 (about $607 million including short-term investments); remaining senior notes redeemed April 9, 2026, leaving no long-term debt and an undrawn revolving credit facility near $225 million | Hecla Q1 2026 results and subsequent note-redemption summaries | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy consensus with an average price target near $23.53 from 9 analysts per S&P, versus about $21.45 from 5 analysts on Google Finance; recent targets ranged from $13.50 to $27 | StockAnalysis forecast page and Google Finance analyst ratings | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | Price about $14.12, SMA50 about $15.71, SMA200 about $18.31, RSI about 41.05, 52-week range about $5.62 to $34.17, average volume about 31.6 million shares per Chartmill | Chartmill technicals and market range data | August 3, 2026 |
| Financial-rigor verification | Market-cap math passed at 0.00% variance; FY2025 revenue, FY2025 net income, shares outstanding, market cap, and technical cross-validation passed; valuation and three-scenario calculations were run locally | Pineify tools/financial_rigor.py local run | August 3, 2026 |
This HL AI stock analysis page is an informational tool only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a guarantee of returns. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available public data as of August 3, 2026 and can be wrong if silver or gold prices, costs, production, capital allocation, valuation multiples, or market conditions change. Q2 2026 results were scheduled for August 4, 2026, after this data cutoff.
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