Hafnia Limited research snapshot
HAFN AI stock analysis as of the August 4, 2026 data cutoff reads Hafnia Limited as one of the largest product tanker operators in the world, with 118 owned and chartered-in vessels serving oil majors, trading houses, and chemical companies. The stock traded at $7.61 on August 3, 2026 at 1:51 PM EDT, down 0.08 or 1.11% from the $7.69 July 31 close, within a session range near $7.45 to $7.68, carrying a market capitalization of about $3.83 billion on roughly 498.57 million shares. Q1 2026 delivered a record net profit of $179.7 million, ROE of 29.5%, net debt down to $797 million, and net asset value of $8.09 per share, while management guided 2026 net income in a range of $700 million to $1 billion depending on the freight market scenario. The HAFN AI stock forecast is a set of freight rate, fleet utilization, balance sheet, and valuation scenarios, not a price promise, and this page is for informational use only and is not investment advice.
Current price
$7.61 at the August 3, 2026, 1:51 PM EDT reading, down 0.08 or 1.11% from the $7.69 July 31 close, within a session range near $7.45 to $7.68 after opening at $7.64
Market cap
About $3.83 billion on roughly 498.57 million shares
AI score
62 / 100
Rating
Cyclical product tanker leader with record crisis-driven earnings in 2026, a modern fleet, reduced net debt, and a price below net asset value, offset by peak-cycle freight exposure and a high dividend payout that depends on the durability of the rate shock
Trend status
Price recovered from the July 2026 low and trades above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages near $7.46 and $6.99, still below the May 2026 all-time high of $9.54, with RSI near 53 pointing to a neutral to slightly positive bias
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Hafnia owns and operates one of the largest modern product and chemical tanker fleets, transporting clean and dirty refined oil products, vegetable oils, and chemicals for oil majors, trading houses, and chemical companies. Revenue depends on vessel utilization, spot and time-charter TCE rates, voyage costs, and fleet composition rather than recurring or subscription revenue. | High |
| Moat | The moat is a scaled, modern fleet with 118 owned and chartered-in vessels, an average fleet age of 9.6 years, a pool platform operating about 60 third-party vessels, long-standing charterer relationships, and access to secured financing. These advantages are useful in a fragmented market but do not insulate Hafnia from a global freight rate downturn or an overbuild of tonnage. | Medium |
| Management | In Q1 2026 management contracted 10 MR newbuilds, reduced net debt to $797 million, cut net loan-to-value to 20.2%, and kept the 80% payout dividend policy. CEO Mikael Skov steps down effective September 1, 2026 and will join the board, with Head of Asset Management Soren Steenberg Jensen appointed as successor. BW Group remains the largest shareholder. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Q1 2026 delivered record net profit of $179.7 million on TCE income of $282.5 million, ROE of 29.5%, and ROIC of 22.7%. TTM net income was about $456 million and TTM revenue about $2.41 billion, while FY2025 was a weak year with net income of about $340 million and revenue of about $2.3 billion. | High |
| Valuation | At $7.61, PE(TTM) was about 8.47, forward PE about 6.63, PB about 1.51, P/FCF about 8.45, EV/EBITDA about 6.99, and the trailing dividend yield about 9.6%, with the price below the $8.09 Q1 2026 net asset value per share. These multiples appear low partly because 2026 earnings are extraordinary, so the discount reflects cyclical risk. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | The price recovered from the July 2026 low and trades at $7.61, above the 50-day moving average near $7.46 and the 200-day near $6.99, below the 100-day near $7.79, with RSI near 53 and a 14-day ADX near 10.8 pointing to a range rather than a strong trend. The 52-week range is $5.17 to $9.54. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is elevated because product tanker TCE rates, Middle East refinery restart timing, the 72-vessel LR2 migration to dirty trade, sanctions tonnage, newbuild supply, vessel values, interest expense, dry-dock costs, dividend variability, and the concentrated BW Group shareholder base can all affect per-share value quickly. | High |
| AI confidence | Historical financials, fleet facts, guidance, and valuation ratios are supported by verified sources. AI cannot reliably forecast freight rates, trade route shifts, refinery restart timing, or the timing of the next cycle downturn. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Investment certainty is lower than data confidence because Hafnia is a capital-intensive, cyclical owner and the current high dividend is tied to crisis freight rates that management expects to normalize. | Low-medium |
HAFN AI stock forecast
The HAFN AI stock forecast uses three-year scenario math around the $7.61 August 3, 2026 price. The company guided 2026 net income of $700 million to $1 billion, implying roughly $1.40 to $2.00 per share in the current freight market, while TTM EPS was $0.90 and the forward PE of 6.63 implies forward EPS near $1.15. Using forward EPS growth assumptions of about 12%, 0%, and -20% and exit multiples near 8.5x, 6.5x, and 3.5x, the model produces area targets near $14, $7, and $2 before widening into scenario ranges, because freight rates, refinery restarts, fleet supply, and dividends are uncertain.
$11 to $15
More likely if the Strait of Hormuz closure and Middle East refinery outages persist, the inventory rebuild extends freight strength into 2027 and 2028, fleet supply stays tight, Hafnia maintains high utilization and time-charter coverage, and the dividend stays supported by cash flow. An exit multiple near 8 to 9 times elevated earnings produces this range.
$6 to $9
More likely if freight rates normalize toward mid-cycle levels as Middle East refining recovers and the inventory rebuild completes, Hafnia keeps a modern fuel-efficient fleet with strong time-charter coverage, net debt stays low, and the market assigns a mid-cycle multiple to normalized earnings. The analyst consensus near $8.85 and the net asset value of $8.09 per share sit inside this range.
$1.50 to $3
More likely if product tanker supply grows faster than refined product demand, the crisis freight premium unwinds quickly, vessel values fall, sanctions tonnage re-enters the market, or Hafnia faces refinancing pressure and a dividend cut after TCE rates fall below cash breakeven.
HAFN AI technical analysis
HAFN AI technical analysis uses the StockAnalysis.com and Barchart snapshots together with the August 3, 2026 session data. The stock recovered from the July low and trades at $7.61, above the 50-day moving average near $7.46 and the 200-day near $6.99, but below the 100-day near $7.79. RSI near 53 and a 14-day ADX near 10.8 point to a neutral to slightly positive bias within a range, so levels should be confirmed in a live chart before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $7.61 | CBOE real-time reading on StockAnalysis.com at the August 3, 2026, 1:51 PM EDT snapshot, down 0.08 from the $7.69 July 31 close, within a session range near $7.45 to $7.68 after opening at $7.64. |
| Near support | $7.40 to $7.50 | The 20-day and 50-day moving average cluster, reported near $7.45 to $7.46 by Barchart and StockAnalysis.com, plus the August 3 intraday low near $7.45. A monitoring zone, not a guaranteed floor. |
| Next support | $6.90 to $7.00 | The 200-day moving average near $6.99 on Barchart and StockAnalysis.com. A sustained close below this level would signal a loss of medium-term trend support. |
| Major support | $5.17 | The 52-week low per StockAnalysis.com. A break would point to a structural bearish change in the freight and valuation story. |
| Near resistance | $7.70 to $7.80 | The 100-day moving average near $7.79 and the August 3 previous close area near $7.69. The first test of upside. |
| Higher resistance | $8.80 to $9.54 | The zone from the analyst consensus target near $8.85 up to the May 2026 all-time high of $9.54. |
| 50-day moving average | $7.46 | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com both report the 50-day moving average near $7.46 as of August 3, 2026, just below the current price. |
| 200-day moving average | $6.99 | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com report the 200-day trend line near $6.99, below the current price. |
| Momentum | RSI near 53 to 54 | StockAnalysis.com reports RSI near 53.42 and Barchart reports the 14-day RSI near 54.27 as of August 3, 2026, a neutral reading with a slight positive tilt. |
| Volume | About 1.06 million shares average (20-day) | StockAnalysis.com and Barchart both report 20-day average volume near 1.06 million shares. Compare with session volume before treating a breakout as confirmed. |
| Volatility | ATR(14) near $0.21 or about 2.8% | Barchart reports the 14-day average true range near $0.21 and 14-day historical volatility near 23%. Material for position sizing in a cyclical shipping stock. |
| Invalidation | Sustained close below $6.99 | A decisive close below the 200-day moving average would weaken the medium-term setup, and a break of the $5.17 low should trigger a fresh review of freight rates, fleet supply, debt, and the dividend outlook. |
HAFN AI trading strategy
The HAFN AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework, not personalized advice. Pair it with live price and volume data, a defined position size, an invalidation level, product tanker rate data, and the next earnings report scheduled for August 26, 2026.
Wait for HAFN to reclaim and hold the 100-day moving average near $7.79 with expanding volume and continued strength in product tanker TCE rates, then check fleet utilization, time-charter coverage, and the Q2 2026 report before treating the move as a trend resumption.
A failed attempt at $7.80 followed by a close below the 50-day area near $7.46 invalidates the setup. Do not widen the risk limit because a high dividend yield can appear attractive during a freight cycle peak.
If HAFN pulls back toward the $6.90 to $7.50 support cluster with RSI near oversold, compare the price move with product tanker rates, refinery restart news, fleet supply data, and peer performance before calling it mean reversion rather than the start of a cycle turn.
Do not average down solely because the stock trades below net asset value or at a low PE. A freight rate normalization can make peak-cycle earnings and dividend yield misleading for several quarters.
Track LR2, LR1, and MR TCE rates, the Strait of Hormuz situation and Middle East refinery restart timing, inventory rebuild progress, fleet utilization and time-charter coverage, newbuild deliveries, vessel sales, net debt and LTV, dividends, share count, sanctions tonnage, and refined product demand.
Reduce confidence if TCE rates approach cash breakeven, the crisis freight premium unwinds faster than expected, newbuilds require equity financing, vessel values fall, or the dividend relies on retained earnings rather than current cash flow.
Investment research summary
Hafnia turns product tanker capacity, crews, fuel, financing, and chartering expertise into ocean transportation for clean and dirty refined oil products, vegetable oils, and chemicals. Customers pay for available vessel capacity and completed voyages. The economic engine is daily TCE revenue minus voyage costs, ship operating expenses, depreciation, interest, dry-dock spending, and capital commitments across 118 owned and chartered-in vessels plus about 60 pool vessels.
The practical moat is a scaled, modern fleet and a commercial platform with diversified vessel classes, an average fleet age of 9.6 years, long-standing charterer relationships, pool scale, and access to secured financing. The advantage is narrower than a brand or network effect because fleet scale cannot prevent a global oversupply of product tankers or a shift in refined product trade routes.
The thesis fails if the crisis freight premium unwinds before the order book shrinks, product tanker supply grows faster than refined product demand, Middle East refining recovers and shortens trade routes, sanctions tonnage returns to the market, vessel values fall, or rates normalize below cash breakeven. Other failure paths include refinancing pressure, high interest expense, dividend cuts, dry-dock overruns, accidents, environmental regulation changes, and related-party capital allocation decisions that reduce per-share value.
In Q1 2026 management reduced net debt to $797 million, cut net loan-to-value to 20.2%, contracted 10 MR newbuilds with Hyundai Heavy Industries, and kept the 80% payout policy. CEO Mikael Skov steps down effective September 1, 2026 and will join the board, with Head of Asset Management Soren Steenberg Jensen appointed as successor. The key test is whether the new CEO sustains fleet discipline, chartering strategy, and capital allocation across the product tanker cycle.
Product tanker shipping is in an extraordinary, geopolitically driven freight spike: the Strait of Hormuz closure reshaped trade routes, about 2 million barrels per day of Middle East refining capacity is offline, and the IEA projects a cumulative oil inventory deficit that could reach 900 million barrels by September 2026. Hafnia benefits from elevated ton miles and tight supply in 2026, but management expects normalization as refining recovers, and the industry remains exposed to refinery capacity shifts, energy transition policies, sanctions, canal access, and newbuilding supply.
At $7.61, the audit produced about 8.47x TTM EPS, 1.51x book value, 6.99x EV/EBITDA, 8.45x trailing free cash flow, a 9.6% dividend yield, and a price below the $8.09 Q1 2026 net asset value per share. The low multiples and NAV discount exist because current earnings reflect a freight rate shock. A margin of safety requires normalized cash flow and dividend visibility, not just a low headline PE.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| HAFN price | $7.61 at the August 3, 2026, 1:51 PM EDT reading, down 0.08 or 1.11% from the $7.69 July 31 close, within a session range near $7.45 to $7.68 after opening at $7.64 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote | August 4, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $3.83 billion, consistent with about 498.57 million shares times the $7.61 price; enterprise value of $4.73 billion | StockAnalysis.com quote and statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 498.57 million shares outstanding, float of 242.46 million, share count down 1.57% year over year, insiders 0.32%, institutions 22.23% | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| 52-week range and performance | $5.17 to $9.54, up 38.57% over the trailing 52 weeks, beta of -0.17 (5Y monthly) | StockAnalysis.com quote and statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| TTM revenue and net income | TTM revenue about $2.41 billion and net income about $456 million for the period ended March 31, 2026; FY2025 revenue about $2.3 billion and net income about $340 million | StockAnalysis.com statistics and financials | August 4, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 results | TCE income of $282.5 million, adjusted EBITDA of $198.6 million, net profit of $179.7 million, EPS of $0.36, ROE of 29.5% annualized, and ROIC of 22.7%, including $32.5 million of vessel sale gains and $9.9 million of dividend income from the Tor investment | Hafnia Q1 2026 earnings release and Q1 2026 earnings call transcript | May 27, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 balance sheet | Net debt reduced to $797 million from $932 million, net loan-to-value of 20.2%, total liquidity near $660 million including $146 million cash and $550 million undrawn credit, and net asset value near $4.0 billion or $8.09 per share | Hafnia Q1 2026 earnings call transcript | May 27, 2026 |
| Dividend | Q1 2026 dividend of $0.2877 per share at an 80% payout ratio, 17 consecutive quarterly dividends, cumulative dividends of $365.3 million or $0.79 per share over the last four quarters, trailing dividend per share of $0.73 with a 9.60% yield, ex-dividend date June 4, 2026 | Hafnia Q1 2026 earnings release and StockAnalysis.com dividend page | August 4, 2026 |
| Fleet and operations | 118 owned and chartered-in vessels with an average fleet age of 9.6 years, about 60 third-party vessels operated across 8 pools, 4,000 employees, headquartered in Singapore; wind-down of Handy and LR2 pool operations announced, with a complete Handy exit planned as sales finalize | Hafnia Q1 2026 earnings call transcript and company profile | May 27, 2026 |
| Newbuild program | 10 MR newbuilds contracted or optioned with Hyundai Heavy Industries for delivery from Q3 2028 to Q2 2029, with about $80 million of progress payments expected in Q2 2026 and most remaining capital expenditure concentrated in 2028 | Hafnia Q1 2026 earnings call transcript | May 27, 2026 |
| Forward coverage | 73% of Q2 2026 earning days covered at $46,600 per day and 39% of Q2 through Q4 earning days covered at $38,281 per day as of May 13, 2026, both above the operational cash flow breakeven | Hafnia Q1 2026 earnings call transcript | May 27, 2026 |
| 2026 guidance | Management guided 2026 net income in a range of $700 million to $1 billion depending on the freight market scenario, with Q2 expected to be stronger than Q1 | Hafnia Q1 2026 earnings call transcript | May 27, 2026 |
| Freight market context | Strait of Hormuz closure reshaped trade flows, about 2 million barrels per day of Middle East refining capacity offline with full recovery not expected before Q1 2027, IEA cumulative inventory deficit of up to 900 million barrels projected by September 2026, U.S. clean product exports up about 40% from February to May, and 72 LR2 vessels migrated to dirty trading, cutting the clean LR2 fleet by about 28% year to date | Hafnia Q1 2026 earnings call transcript | May 27, 2026 |
| Valuation | PE(TTM) 8.47, forward PE 6.63, PS 1.59, PB 1.51, P/FCF 8.45, P/OCF 6.46, EV/EBITDA 6.99, dividend yield 9.60%, earnings yield 11.90%, FCF yield 11.84% | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Cash flow | Operating cash flow of $593.22 million, capital expenditures of $139.67 million, free cash flow of $453.55 million, and free cash flow per share of $0.91 over TTM | StockAnalysis.com cash flow statement | August 4, 2026 |
| Balance sheet | Cash of $146.46 million, total debt of about $1.03 billion, net cash of negative $879.07 million or negative $1.76 per share, book value of $2.54 billion or $5.10 per share, current ratio 1.60, debt to equity 0.40; company-reported net debt was $797 million at Q1 2026 under its own measure | StockAnalysis.com statistics and balance sheet | August 4, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | StockAnalysis.com lists an average price target of $8.85, 16.37% above the August 3 price, with a Buy consensus from 2 analysts; Pareto downgraded HAFN to Hold from Buy with a NOK 79 target in mid-July 2026 and SEB Equities upgraded to Buy from Hold with a NOK 91 target in May 2026 | StockAnalysis.com statistics and news feed | August 4, 2026 |
| Short interest | 1.20 million shares short, 0.24% of shares outstanding, 0.50% of float, 0.64 days to cover, down from 2.03 million shares the previous month | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 50-day moving average near $7.46, 200-day near $6.99, RSI near 53.42 on StockAnalysis.com and 14-day RSI near 54.27 on Barchart, 14-day ADX near 10.78, 14-day ATR near $0.21 or about 2.8%, 14-day historical volatility near 23%, 20-day average volume near 1.06 million shares | StockAnalysis.com statistics and Barchart technical analysis | August 4, 2026 |
| CEO succession | Mikael Skov will step down as CEO effective September 1, 2026 and join the board subject to confirmation; Soren Steenberg Jensen, Head of Asset Management, has been appointed CEO. Announced June 29, 2026 | Hafnia press release via Nasdaq and Business Wire | June 30, 2026 |
| Earnings calendar | Next earnings date August 26, 2026 before market open; Q1 2026 was reported May 27, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
This HAFN AI stock analysis page is an informational tool only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a guarantee of returns. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on public data available as of August 4, 2026 and can be wrong if product tanker rates, Middle East refining recovery, refined product demand, trade routes, fleet supply, debt financing, dividends, fleet execution, or market valuation change.
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