Bullish case
$360 to $400
More likely if fitness wearables keep gaining share, aviation and marine remain healthy, auto OEM turns profitable, operating margin holds near 30%, and investors keep assigning a premium multiple to Garmin quality.
Garmin Ltd. research snapshot
GRMN AI Stock Analysis
GRMN AI stock analysis currently reads Garmin Ltd. as a high-quality, debt-light consumer technology and avionics company with durable niches in fitness, outdoor, aviation, marine, and automotive OEM products. Business quality is strong because Q2 2026 revenue rose 11% to about $2.02 billion, Q2 2026 operating income rose 30% to a record $616 million, gross margin expanded to 62.4%, and the company raised full year 2026 guidance to about $8.05 billion of revenue and pro forma EPS of $10.00. Cash plus marketable securities were about $4.4 billion at the end of Q2 2026. The main caution is valuation: at the August 2, 2026 data cutoff, GRMN closed near $293.78, about $56.66 billion in market value, roughly 30.3x TTM EPS, and about 35.4x TTM free cash flow per share. This page is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$293.78
Market cap
$56.66 billion
AI score
74 / 100
Rating
High-quality, record-momentum device maker whose stock now trades above the consensus analyst target
Trend status
Strong uptrend near the 52-week high after a Q2 2026 earnings beat, with short-term momentum stretched above the 50-day average
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
Research quality check
- information Richness
- A-level information richness. Garmin has a long public record, SEC filings, annual reports, quarterly releases, investor presentations, technical data sources, analyst estimates, and broad third-party financial coverage.
- bias Check
- The main AI research bias risk is anchoring on the sharp post-earnings price surge and treating the higher quote as proof of further upside. This page separates filing-backed facts from scenario judgment and notes that the stock closed above the average analyst price target.
- ai Confidence
- High for Q2 2026 revenue, operating income, gross margin, EPS, segment revenue, cash and marketable securities, share count, market-cap math, and current valuation ratios. Medium for technical levels and forecast ranges because price, momentum, consumer demand, and valuation multiples change quickly.
- investment Certainty
- Medium. Garmin has a proven product culture, a conservative balance sheet, high margins, and a raised 2026 outlook, but the current valuation already prices in continued execution, leaving less room for a wearable cycle slowdown or multiple compression.
Quick verdict table
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Garmin sells specialized hardware and software ecosystems across fitness, outdoor, aviation, marine, and auto OEM markets, with Q2 2026 revenue growth in four of five segments. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from brand trust, GPS and sensor expertise, aviation certifications, marine and outdoor product depth, proprietary software, and vertically integrated design. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO Cliff Pemble has been with Garmin for decades and management has paired record product launches with low leverage, dividends, buybacks, and a raised 2026 outlook. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Q2 2026 revenue rose 11% to about $2.02 billion, operating income rose 30% to a record $616 million, and the company raised full year 2026 guidance. | High |
| Valuation | At $293.78, GRMN trades near 30.3x TTM EPS, 6.3x book value, 35.4x TTM free cash flow per share, and 7.4x TTM sales per share, above the average analyst target of $283.86. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | Technical snapshots were strongly bullish but extended: price closed above rising 50-day and 200-day averages near the 52-week high, with RSI near 77 in overbought territory. | Medium |
| Risk level | Main risks are premium wearable competition, consumer hardware cyclicality, aviation and marine order timing, auto OEM margin drag, memory-cost pressure, foreign exchange, inventory, and valuation compression. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because official filings and third-party data agree closely. Return confidence is lower because the stock already closed above the average analyst price target. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Investment certainty is medium at this price. Garmin is a strong company with record momentum, but the margin of safety depends on sustained EPS growth and a disciplined entry price after a sharp move higher. | Medium |
GRMN AI stock forecast
GRMN AI Stock Forecast Scenarios
The GRMN AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $293.78 data cutoff price. It does not claim that AI can predict a precise future stock price. The three-year model produced a bullish anchor near $387, a base anchor near $277, and a bearish anchor near $155 before dividends, using TTM EPS of $9.69 and scenario multiples. These anchors are valuation scenarios, not guaranteed targets.
Base case
$265 to $290
More likely if Garmin grows EPS at a high-single-digit pace, keeps a strong cash position, and trades near a quality consumer technology multiple rather than a high-growth multiple.
Bearish case
$145 to $165
More likely if advanced wearable demand slows, aviation backlog normalizes, marine or outdoor demand weakens, auto OEM losses return, memory and component costs pressure margins, or the market resets GRMN toward a lower mature-hardware multiple.
GRMN AI technical analysis
GRMN AI Technical Analysis
GRMN AI technical analysis is strongly bullish but extended as of the August 2, 2026 cutoff. GRMN closed near $293.78 on July 31, 2026, above its rising 50-day average near $242.98 and its rising 200-day average near $229.34, and within about 3% of the 52-week high near $304. ChartMill gave GRMN a 10/10 technical rating and a 2/10 setup rating, noting that prices have been extended to the upside. RSI near 76.94 and Stochastics near 87.38 are overbought, so traders should confirm live levels before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $293.78 | Closing reference on July 31, 2026, used for the market-cap and valuation math at the August 2, 2026 cutoff. |
| Immediate support | $239 to $243 | ChartMill identified a support zone from about $239.86 to $242.98 formed by trend lines and moving averages, including the 50-day average near $242.98. |
| Secondary support | $231 to $232 | ChartMill cited strong support near $231.60 from a horizontal line in the daily time frame. |
| Deeper support | $226 to $229 | ChartMill cited support near $226 from a horizontal line and the rising 200-day average near $229.34 as deeper trend support. |
| Major support | $186 to $211 | ChartMill cited a weekly trend-line support near $211.47, and the 52-week low near $186.67 is the outer boundary where the longer-term thesis would need fresh review. |
| Resistance | $304 then none detected | ChartMill detected no resistance zones because GRMN trades near the 52-week high near $304.00. The prior all-time high area is the next reference, not a technical promise. |
| Moving averages | Above all key averages | ChartMill showed price above rising SMA 5 near $276.46, SMA 20 near $251.99, SMA 50 near $242.98, and SMA 200 near $229.34. |
| Momentum | RSI 76.94, MACD 5.96 | Momentum is positive but overbought. Daily RSI near 77 and Stochastics near 87 are in overbought territory in the cited technical snapshot. |
| Volume | About 940,000 to 1,170,000 shares | ChartMill cited average volume near 940,000 shares and StockAnalysis showed about 1,168,000 shares on July 31, 2026, with volume elevated during the post-earnings move higher. |
| Volatility | 52-week range $186.67 to $304.00 | ChartMill cited ATR of about 3.16% and a wide annual range despite high business quality, so position sizing should reflect hardware-cycle and valuation risk. |
| Invalidation | Close below $243, then below $231 | A close below the $239 to $243 support zone would break the short-term setup. A sustained break below the $231 to $232 area would challenge the medium-term trend. |
GRMN AI trading strategy
GRMN AI Trading Strategy Framework
The GRMN AI trading strategy below is a rules-based framework, not personalized financial advice. It combines segment growth, margin quality, cash discipline, valuation ranges, technical confirmation, and clear invalidation levels.
Trend-following setup
Watch for GRMN to hold the $239 to $243 support band and then clear the $304 52-week high while Q3 2026 results confirm fitness, aviation, and marine growth and guidance stays at or above the raised level.
Because the stock is extended after a sharp post-earnings move, avoid chasing on strength. A close below $243 should reduce confidence. A close below $231 would shift the setup from trend-following to thesis review.
Mean-reversion setup
If GRMN pulls back toward the $239 to $243 support band or the rising 50-day average without a break in EPS guidance, operating margin, or cash generation, compare the reset price with the base scenario near $277 and the dividend yield near 1.4%.
Do not average down solely because Garmin is a high-quality brand. Require evidence that demand, gross margin, and inventory are still healthy, and note that the stock closed above the average analyst target of $283.86.
Fundamental monitor
Track Q3 2026 earnings, the pace of Fitness and Aviation growth, the Aviation and Marine order books, Auto OEM profitability, memory and component cost trends, cash and marketable securities, repurchases, and the integration of TrainingPeaks and TrainHeroic.
Lower the rating if EPS growth slows while GRMN still trades above a quality-hardware multiple, if inventory and component costs absorb the expected margin upside, or if guidance is cut after a period of rapid price appreciation.
Investment research summary
Four-master Research Compression
Business essence
Customers pay Garmin because its devices combine reliable positioning, sensors, battery life, rugged hardware, software, maps, safety features, and activity-specific workflows across fitness, outdoor, aviation, marine, and auto OEM.
Moat
Garmin benefits from brand trust, product breadth, aviation certification, marine channel depth, GPS know-how, software ecosystems, and vertical design control. The moat is strongest where reliability matters more than the lowest device price.
Munger risk inversion
The thesis can fail if premium wearables become commoditized, Apple and other competitors compress pricing, aviation and marine orders slow, auto OEM remains loss-making, memory costs pressure margins, or the valuation multiple contracts after a strong run.
Management
Cliff Pemble is a long-tenured Garmin executive, and management has kept a conservative balance sheet while funding R&D, dividends, buybacks, and the TrainingPeaks and TrainHeroic acquisitions. Key-person risk is moderate because product culture and operating systems appear institutionalized.
Industry trend
Garmin is tied to health wearables, outdoor recreation, general aviation modernization, marine electronics, and vehicle cockpit electronics. These are durable niches, but most are not winner-take-all network-effect markets.
Valuation and margin of safety
At roughly 30.3x TTM earnings and 35.4x TTM free cash flow per share, GRMN needs continued execution. The stock closed above the average analyst target of $283.86, so the margin of safety is thinner now than it was before the post-earnings surge.
Source-backed data
GRMN Data Table
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| GRMN quote reference | $293.78 closing reference on July 31, 2026, after-hours near $294.00 | StockAnalysis and public quote snapshots | August 2, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $56.66 billion calculated from $293.78 x 192.85 million shares, matching the reported market cap | Pineify financial_rigor.py and StockAnalysis statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 192,853,000 shares outstanding in StockAnalysis statistics, close to the 192.88 million figure cited from Garmin filings | StockAnalysis statistics and Garmin disclosures | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 revenue | $2,022.1 million for the 13 weeks ended June 27, 2026, up 11% from $1,814.6 million in the prior-year quarter | Garmin Q2 2026 results | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 operating income and margins | Record operating income of $616 million, up 30%, with gross margin of 62.4% and operating margin of 30.4% | Garmin Q2 2026 results | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 EPS | GAAP diluted EPS of $2.80 and pro forma diluted EPS of $2.81, up 29% year over year | Garmin Q2 2026 results | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 segment revenue | Fitness $756.8M up 25%, Outdoor $482.7M down 2%, Aviation $268.7M up 8%, Marine $341.4M up 14%, Auto OEM $172.4M up 1% | Garmin Q2 2026 results | August 2, 2026 |
| Cash and marketable securities | About $4.4 billion at the end of Q2 2026, with cash and cash equivalents of about $2.33 billion and current marketable securities of about $332 million | Garmin Q2 2026 results | August 2, 2026 |
| Debt profile | Total debt of about $227 million against a large net cash and securities position, with a debt-to-equity ratio near 0.03 | StockAnalysis statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2026 guidance | Raised to approximately $8.05 billion of revenue and pro forma EPS of $10.00, based on gross margin of 59.7% and operating margin of 27.0% | Garmin Q2 2026 results | August 2, 2026 |
| Share repurchase program | Repurchased $43 million of shares in Q2 2026, with about $448 million remaining in the $500 million program authorized through December 2028 | Garmin Q2 2026 results | August 2, 2026 |
| Technical indicators | SMA 50 near $242.98, SMA 200 near $229.34, RSI near 76.94, MACD 5.96 in public technical snapshots | ChartMill technical analysis | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst forecast context | Average target of $283.86 with a range of about $220 to $330. Recent updates: J.P. Morgan to $295, Morgan Stanley to $289, Barclays to $297, all with Hold or Equal Weight ratings | StockAnalysis forecast and analyst updates | August 2, 2026 |
| Dividend | Annual dividend of $4.20 per share, a yield of about 1.4%, with the next $1.05 installment scheduled to pay on September 25, 2026 | Garmin Q2 2026 results and StockAnalysis | August 2, 2026 |
Frequently Asked Questions
Read the AAPL AI stock analysisView GOOG AI stock forecastExplore TSLA AI technical analysisBuild a GRMN trading strategyScreen more AI-ranked stocksAnalyze the GRMN chart
This GRMN AI stock analysis is an informational tool, not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future returns. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available public data as of August 2, 2026, and they may be wrong if Garmin results, market conditions, valuation multiples, interest rates, or investor sentiment change.
Related Tools
Trading Strategy Builder
Design trading strategies visually with 10+ indicators. Set entry/exit conditions and risk management, then generate Pine Script code with no coding required.
Open
Stock Screener
Filter and discover stocks based on market cap, dividend yield, P/E ratio, sector, and more. Screen thousands of stocks with real-time data.
Open
AI Stock Picker & Screener
Smart AI-driven stock selection with fundamental screening, analyst estimates, and key metrics. Filter by P/E, market cap, dividends, and more.
Open