Bullish case
$350 to $390
More likely if fitness wearables keep gaining share, aviation and marine remain healthy, auto OEM losses narrow, operating margin stays in the mid-20s, and investors keep assigning a premium multiple to Garmin quality.
Garmin Ltd. research snapshot
GRMN AI Stock Analysis
GRMN AI stock analysis currently reads Garmin Ltd. as a profitable, debt-light consumer technology and avionics company with durable niches in fitness, outdoor, aviation, marine, and automotive OEM products. The business quality signal is strong because FY2025 revenue rose 15% to $7.25 billion, FY2025 net income reached $1.66 billion, Q1 2026 revenue rose 14% to about $1.75 billion, and cash plus marketable securities were about $4.3 billion at quarter end. The main caution is valuation: at the July 8, 2026 data cutoff, GRMN traded near $248.68, about $47.96 billion in market value, roughly 27.8x TTM EPS, and about 35.3x FY2025 free cash flow per share. This page is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$248.68
Market cap
$47.96 billion
AI score
72 / 100
Rating
High-quality diversified device maker with strong execution and valuation discipline required
Trend status
Constructive medium-term trend, with price back above the 50-day average but still below the April 2026 high
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 8, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
Research quality check
- information Richness
- A-level information richness. Garmin has a long public record, SEC filings, annual reports, quarterly releases, investor presentations, technical data sources, analyst estimates, and broad third-party financial coverage.
- bias Check
- The main AI research bias risk is overconfidence from clean historical growth and strong brand perception. This page separates filing-backed facts from scenario judgment and asks why a disciplined investor might avoid GRMN after a strong share-price advance.
- ai Confidence
- High for FY2025 revenue, net income, diluted EPS, segment revenue, share count, cash and marketable securities, market-cap math, and current valuation ratios. Medium for technical levels and forecast ranges because price, momentum, consumer demand, and valuation multiples change quickly.
- investment Certainty
- Medium. Garmin has a proven product culture, a conservative balance sheet, and high margins, but the current valuation leaves less room for a wearable cycle slowdown, aviation order pause, or multiple compression.
Quick verdict table
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Garmin sells specialized hardware and software ecosystems across fitness, outdoor, aviation, marine, and auto OEM markets, with FY2025 revenue growth in every segment. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from brand trust, GPS and sensor expertise, aviation certifications, marine and outdoor product depth, proprietary software, and vertically integrated design. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO Cliff Pemble has been with Garmin for decades and management has paired product launches with low leverage, dividends, and selective repurchases. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue rose 15% to $7.25 billion, operating income rose 18% to $1.88 billion, and Q1 2026 operating income rose 30% to $432 million. | High |
| Valuation | At $248.68, GRMN trades near 27.8x TTM EPS, 5.2x book value, 35.3x FY2025 free cash flow per share, and 6.6x FY2025 sales per share. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | Technical snapshots were constructive but not risk-free: price was above the 50-day moving average, below the 52-week high, and momentum was neutral to positive. | Medium |
| Risk level | Main risks are premium wearable competition, consumer hardware cyclicality, aviation and marine order timing, auto OEM margin drag, foreign exchange, inventory, and valuation compression. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because official filings and third-party data agree closely. Return confidence is lower because the stock already prices in high-quality execution. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Investment certainty is medium at this price. Garmin is a strong company, but the margin of safety depends on sustained EPS growth and disciplined entry price. | Medium |
GRMN AI stock forecast
GRMN AI Stock Forecast Scenarios
The GRMN AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $248.68 data cutoff price. It does not claim that AI can predict a precise future stock price. The audited three-year model produced a bullish anchor near $378, a base anchor near $267, and a bearish anchor near $152 before dividends, using TTM EPS of $8.96 and scenario multiples. These anchors are valuation scenarios, not guaranteed targets.
Base case
$250 to $280
More likely if Garmin grows EPS at a mid-single-digit to high-single-digit pace, keeps a strong cash position, and trades near a quality consumer technology multiple rather than a high-growth multiple.
Bearish case
$145 to $165
More likely if advanced wearable demand slows, aviation backlog normalizes, marine or outdoor demand weakens, auto OEM losses persist, inventory rises, or the market resets GRMN toward a lower mature-hardware multiple.
GRMN AI technical analysis
GRMN AI Technical Analysis
GRMN AI technical analysis is constructive but mixed as of the July 8, 2026 cutoff. Public technical snapshots showed GRMN near $248.68, above its 50-day moving average around $239.46, below its 52-week high near $273.32, and near neutral RSI readings. ChartMill showed RSI 59.73, MACD positive at 1.11, price above the 50-day average, and price below a declining 200-day average in one snapshot. Traders should confirm live levels before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $248.68 | Current market reference used for the July 8, 2026 market-cap and valuation math. |
| Immediate support | $238 to $245 | The support band is anchored around the 50-day moving average near $239.46 and recent quote ranges around the mid-$240s. |
| Secondary support | $228 to $230 | ChartMill referenced a 200-day moving average near $228.75, making this a deeper trend support area. |
| Major support | $186 to $200 | The 52-week low near $186.67 and prior support estimates near $197 define the area where the longer-term thesis would need fresh review. |
| Near resistance | $262 to $270 | Analyst target references cluster around the low $260s, while recent price action still needs to clear the high-$260s area. |
| Major resistance | $273 to $325 | The 52-week high near $273.32 is the first major resistance. The upper analyst target near $325 is a bullish scenario reference, not a technical promise. |
| Moving averages | Above 50-day, near or below 200-day depending on source timing | ChartMill showed the stock above the 50-day average and below a declining 200-day average, while other technical pages marked the daily setup as strong buy. |
| Momentum | RSI 59.73, MACD 1.11 | Momentum is positive but not overbought in the cited technical snapshot. |
| Volume | About 735,000 to 960,000 shares | Public quote snapshots showed daily volume below the average daily volume, so breakouts need volume confirmation. |
| Volatility | 52-week range $186.67 to $273.32 | The stock has a wide annual range despite high business quality, so position sizing should reflect hardware-cycle and valuation risk. |
| Invalidation | Close below $238, then below $228 | A close below the 50-day area would weaken the short-term setup. A sustained break below the 200-day area would challenge the medium-term trend. |
GRMN AI trading strategy
GRMN AI Trading Strategy Framework
The GRMN AI trading strategy below is a rules-based framework, not personalized financial advice. It combines segment growth, margin quality, cash discipline, valuation ranges, technical confirmation, and clear invalidation levels.
Trend-following setup
Watch for GRMN to hold the $238 to $245 support band and then reclaim the $262 to $270 resistance area while Q2 2026 results confirm fitness, aviation, and marine growth.
A close below $238 should reduce confidence. A close below $228 would shift the setup from trend-following to thesis review.
Mean-reversion setup
If GRMN pulls back toward the 200-day area without a break in EPS guidance, operating margin, or cash generation, compare the reset price with the base scenario near $267 and dividend yield.
Do not average down solely because Garmin is a high-quality brand. Require evidence that demand, gross margin, and inventory are still healthy.
Fundamental monitor
Track Q2 2026 earnings, FY2026 guidance, fitness growth, aviation OEM and aftermarket demand, marine demand, auto OEM losses, cash and marketable securities, repurchases, and product launch cadence.
Lower the rating if EPS growth slows while GRMN still trades above a quality-hardware multiple or if inventory and auto OEM losses absorb the expected margin upside.
Investment research summary
Four-master Research Compression
Business essence
Customers pay Garmin because its devices combine reliable positioning, sensors, battery life, rugged hardware, software, maps, safety features, and activity-specific workflows.
Moat
Garmin benefits from brand trust, product breadth, aviation certification, marine channel depth, GPS know-how, software ecosystems, and vertical design control. The moat is strongest where reliability matters more than the lowest device price.
Munger risk inversion
The thesis can fail if premium wearables become commoditized, Apple and other competitors compress pricing, aviation and marine orders slow, auto OEM remains loss-making, inventory rises, or the valuation multiple contracts.
Management
Cliff Pemble is a long-tenured Garmin executive, and the company has kept a conservative balance sheet while funding R&D, dividends, and buybacks. Key-person risk is moderate because product culture and operating systems appear institutionalized.
Industry trend
Garmin is tied to health wearables, outdoor recreation, general aviation modernization, marine electronics, and vehicle cockpit electronics. These are durable niches, but most are not winner-take-all network-effect markets.
Valuation and margin of safety
At roughly 27.8x TTM earnings and 35.3x FY2025 free cash flow per share, GRMN needs continued execution. The margin of safety is better on pullbacks than at prices that assume sustained premium growth.
Source-backed data
GRMN Data Table
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| GRMN quote reference | $248.68 current market data reference on July 8, 2026 | StockAnalysis and public quote snapshots | July 8, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $47.97 billion calculated from $248.68 x 192.88 million shares, compared with reported market cap near $47.96 billion | Pineify financial_rigor.py and StockAnalysis statistics | July 8, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 192,883,365 shares outstanding as of April 10, 2026, with StockAnalysis and GuruFocus near 192.86 million | Garmin 2026 proxy statement and third-party statistics | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $7.246 billion in Garmin investor materials, cross-checked with StockAnalysis at about $7.25 billion | Garmin FY2025 results and StockAnalysis financials | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income | $1.663887 billion in the 2025 annual report. A rounded third-party source showed $1.70 billion, so the page uses the official annual-report number. | Garmin 2025 annual report, StockAnalysis, and StockTitan | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2025 diluted EPS | $8.59 GAAP diluted EPS and $8.56 pro forma EPS | Garmin FY2025 results | July 8, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 revenue and EPS | Record Q1 revenue of about $1.75 billion, GAAP EPS of $2.09, and pro forma EPS of $2.08 | Garmin Q1 2026 results | July 8, 2026 |
| Cash and marketable securities | About $4.3 billion at the end of Q1 2026, cross-checked against transcript and balance-sheet summaries | Garmin Q1 2026 release and Motley Fool transcript | July 8, 2026 |
| Debt profile | No long-term debt in public balance-sheet summaries, with a large net cash and securities position | Macrotrends and balance-sheet summaries | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2025 segment revenue | Fitness $2.357B, Outdoor $2.054B, Aviation $987M, Marine $1.183B, Auto OEM $665M | Garmin Q4 2025 investor presentation | July 8, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 segment growth | Fitness revenue up 42%, Aviation up 18%, Marine up 11%, with Q1 consolidated revenue up 14% | Garmin Q1 2026 results | July 8, 2026 |
| Technical indicators | SMA 50 near $239.46, SMA 200 near $228.75, RSI 59.73, MACD 1.11 in public technical snapshots | ChartMill technical analysis | July 8, 2026 |
| Analyst forecast context | Analyst target snapshots ranged from about $238 to $325, with average targets in the low-to-high $260s depending on source timing | MarketBeat, TradingView, and StockAnalysis forecast pages | July 8, 2026 |
Frequently Asked Questions
Read the GLW AI stock analysisView CSCO AI stock forecastExplore FTV AI technical analysisBuild a GRMN trading strategyScreen more AI-ranked stocksAnalyze the GRMN chart
This GRMN AI stock analysis is an informational tool, not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future returns. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available public data as of July 8, 2026, and they may be wrong if Garmin results, market conditions, valuation multiples, interest rates, or investor sentiment change.